The Club!

#10'078, #10'080
GBPUSD & EURUSD has diffferent probabilities of making a profit or a loss. So that's the reason why I've matched another risk at the EURUSD.
Every trader has to work out his own risk when trading the forex market.

Different time frames & different accounts allows to trade the EURUSD in counterpart directions.

#10'078

GBPUSD, M1, 2013 October 04
Scalping Trade
1.6046 (DS3) - 1.60545
Exit @ 1.60545, 8.6
Profit: +2.15%

With regard to higher timeframes (e.g. #10'078) it seems favored to change the trading style & adapt it to the actual changed market environment.
One scalping trade seems enough for me due to the fact that a greater H1/H4 power (see #10'084, please) could turn up the market price more & more upwards (retracement power). At this moment here the risk seems now greater of making a loss than a profit. I like in this market phase to wait for further GU investments at smaller time frames.
FXcube

GBPUSD, H1, 2013 October 04
GBPUSD, H4, 2013 October 04
(see #10'083)

http://transaktionssteuer.info/

Finanztransaktionssteuer (financial transaction tax)

blog - only in German :-(

The drop from the recent high @ 3645 looks, so far, like an ABC zigzag

A strong indication is, that C = 1,618 x A

In Harmonic EW this is a strong indication for a wave C; a wave 3 would have been, minimum, a bit longer than that

I believe there going to clean themselves up....by either 1. going broke and just disappear ...and 2. they may already be..broke that is...and 3. since they already are (broke) now they're try to do the same to others....and may contribute to the demise of other new individuals to the business at a higher rapid rate... I may be wrong until proven otherwise. Responsible party(s) can PM me with valid broker statement, confidentially is guaranteed .....or make it easy just publish it on the Forum...my 5

LOL not my day today


shall I keep my mouth closed for today? :-)


Will give the 3520 support, or do we slice through it like through the other support areas today?

looks like mkt is trying to form sm support in here (weekend profit taking) maybe wv 1 1h chart showing a b to 1 ..?? scaled in shorts Thursday collected most of it today still short sm ...would like to shorten sm more on a decent rally opportunity...maybe sunday...hw r things going in the "hills"

some EW suggestion:

at least the strong blue channel line should give some reaction. So my idea is:

price will drop this evening or Sunday to the 3520 area, after which we should see some upside reaction.

I could be wrong, like I was today, but I think we have a strong case to see a new high over the next days.

When the recent move down is a wave 4, then it should ideally go to between 3520 and 3460. This view would be invalidated with movement below 3324

sounds reasonable..i/d mkt is O/S + due for a rally

As usual your thought are wise and balanced.

There are numerous reasons why people want to be traders, wanted to be right and having a big ego are some of those reasons.

I think decent traders have the resonsability in given who want to learn an healthy and truly perception of the market, right or wrongly, then is up to the interpreter to apply the message with its on subjectivity.

Making 50% a year can make you very rich down the road if you take this trading business as a serious job. Making that return on serious money it is not easy, I can assure you, because mister emotion will come to play.

Now a new trader believing someone else that is making 20% a day, would be very disincourage when he is making 0.01% a day and he/she will abandon his maschine making money way for a way that does not exist.

If it does exist, well I am happy for them, because if they do, also others can do it, but real proof needs to be showed, if they do not have those proofs then they better shut up beacuse this is meant to be a serious thread...

If somebody at the end of the trade likes to mentioned what % he has made, I think it is fair that he/she also will mention that % risk the beginning of the trade, also mentioning the amount of capital at risk will be appreciated because losing $50 is not like losing $10000. (of course, this is all subjective)

If somebody does not want give all those information, that is fine, it is our prerogative, but coming up with a huge % return without those intitial information it is only BS.

Coming back from gourmet restaurant with my wife - (they were unfit to produce a tasty meal) - and take a look at the forex market before close-down.


EURUSD, M30, 2013 October 04
Swinging Trades
Short Orders (4x)
1.36025-1.35511
Exit @ 1.35511 (4x)
Profit: 10%

It seems that I go out to another restaurant tomorrow and try again elsewhere.

Some words about leverage, expectations, gambling and so on:


Statistics clearly show, that permanently successful traders travel with low leverage, leverage between 2:1 and 5:1, with max. around 10:1

Go above that, and the probability of margin call etc. goes remarkably up. FXCM had a nice study about this whole stuff and can be found here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361961034


Low capitalized accounts come with a high risk of deletion. In my view, this is mainly because of traders trying to get higher in a reasonable amount of time. I call it the hourly wage effect. We want to be rewarded for the hours we spent in front of our screens. If we do not make enough money here, we end up thinking: what the hell am I doing here - should look for another better paid job.

Isn't it so?


But as ever: fast comes with furious, furious with spectacular, spectacular often with FAIL


There is no quick way to richness, unless you are the luckiest bastard of all.



What are reasonable daily targets %-wise?


Well, when account is very small, we tend to think, that a 10% draw down is not so much, and in case of all cases we are easily able to refund a small account. So we travel oftentimes with high leverage, high risk etc.


When trading a huge account the game changes, and the 10% draw down is a serious issue, eventually.


But, from a mathematical/statistical point of view, it should make no difference regarding Money Management, if account is small or huge.



Best solution for me seems to be, to think about the hourly wage first. When having a job, look at what you are earning. When then trading in the afternoon/evening/night, you surly do not like to earn less. So you know your goal already.


Now think about it, how many hours you spent in front of your screens the whole day, the whole year.

Now you should know, what amount shall come in.


Now look at your account:


when you have small account with only 2000 USD funded, and you would be in need of 100 USD per trading session, it would translate to 5% per day.

Must be risky like hell.




Out of my experience:

loss - very probable LOL
0.1-0.3% per day - relatively easy
0.3-0.5% per day - doable
0.5-0.7% per day - increased risk
0.7-1.0% per day - risky
above 1% - gambling


Think of it this way: with 1000 USD in account and 1% per day, you would end up with 2.8 Million in account after 800 trading days (4 years).

If that is easy, why are we working here all so hard. Look at the imbecile Murkey from the other here unnamed thread, being present 24/7, only claiming huge wins, barely a loss, but has to spent all of his sucking life trading and posting in FF. Remember: he even claims to be in the professional trading business for the last 30 years or longer.


If you set yourself a target, try to get around 0.5% per day with low leverage.


So, to catch up the example from above: when you are in need of 100 USD per session, you will need to have an account size of around 20.000 USD.


The rest of the math you have to figure out by yourself, depending on your trading style, timeframe you trade, and time you can allot to trading.




Can we still achieve 10% or 20% per day?


I am sure we can, occasionally. But that needs very tight money management. Sometimes we are able to spot a top "to the pip". So when we enter at this top/or bottom, and do catch a huge move down, we can make serious money.


E.g.: When I enter such a supposed to be top with a 3/10 position (that means: 10 pip movement translates into 0.3% gain or loss) (2/10-3/10 is the position size I do use often), and the price runs 100 pips into my direction, I made 3%. On a 5/10 I would have made 5%.

So when you were able to catch the very top, you could have set a SL around 30 pips away (around 1% risk) and was able to collect 3%. Good R:R


At the same time a 3/10 position means, that I do travel with a leverage of 3:1


So, when I would profit from the described move with a gain from around 10%, I would need to up my leverage to around 10:1.

Doing so, with a SL also set to 30 pips, this trade would come with a risk of 3%.


So all in all, such a 10% trade is still possible. When you like to reduce the risk on such a trade further, you have to move the SL near to your entry. But this comes with the burden of being stopped out frequently. Out of my view a SL should not be below 60 pips to avoid to being whipsawed frequently.

When you are able to produce a 10% trade at 50 days per year, and do this for two years, you will propel your 1000 USD account to nearly 14 Mio (in just two years).

So think about this: is this reasonable? Is this doable? Why is the "to the pip" fraction of traders still here after years?

Funny thing is: I am now here since over 3 years, and I have never witnessed one trader who simply quit trading, claiming that he made enough money.

Let me do the math with the once per week 10% trade: after 3 years I would be at 1.6 Billion (pre tax).


Think, that would be enough to keep me climbing and skiing and motorbiking for the rest of my life 24/7, not even looking back for trading or FF



To conclude my little rant: yes, a 10% trade is doable, but surly not the standard amount of gain we can reap




Regarding the little fight between Milam and KB:


On the one side I can understand Milam, for asking to not to advocate such 25% trades in two days, because it would set wrong expectations.

On the other side: I have watched a lot of KB's trades over the last weeks, and they were not only very good but also posted in a timely manner (within minutes). Very good


Maybe we can agree on the following:


two methods how to post a trade:


a) entry and exit; result in pips

b) entry with risk in %, exit with gain/loss in %


This would avoid to be attackable in light of posting huge %gains, but in case of having a loss only posting pips.

So, come on friends, shake hands, so that we can enjoy our weekend in peace




Thank you all very much for participating and offering trading ideas. Keep the standard of the thread as high as in the past

Bon week-end!
FXcube

Have a nice weekend, too


BTW: nice trades

Found this trade explorer from a trader of another thread:


well, that happens, when one got overconfident


sadly, he lost nearly 50% of account in a few days


can someone spot the Elliott waves in it?


Hope he will recover soon, slowly but steadily

I see a symmetrical triangle (bullish), if it works out a projection of 120 pips is possible..