Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Monday 6/26/2006 14:00 ET

TS #103G Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4163 or close to this price and adjust stop to 1.4185

We are chasing the top of this trend on a difficult cross currency pair. USD/CAD seems to be reversing, and EUR/CAD may have also reached a reversal point or be close to a reversal point at 1.4163. Further examination indicates that 1.4163 is a high probability reversal point also, so - re-entry close to this value is advised.

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Previous trade signals:

TS #103F Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4110 - 1.4120 adjust stop to 1.4154

About 1.4140 is a high probability reversal point, so stop should be raised slightly to 1.4154.

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Monday 6/26/2006 12:00 ET

The following trade signal TS103E was stopped out by a rise to 1.4111 on Friday June 23rd at 9:40 ET. We recommended re-entry at about this level. It since fell to 1.3998 and then just rose again to the 30 day trendline at about 1.4110.
This presents a low risk, high reward entry opportunity.

TS #103F Re-Entry opportunity Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4110 - 1.4120
Stop is 1.4142
Target is 1.3755
Risk is max. 42 pips
Reward is min. 345 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 8.2 to 1

Commentary: on Monday June 26 at 14:05 ET the price rose to a high of 1.4161. The stop was not hit. The 30 day trendline was broken. The price rose to Quantum target 14: 0, a high probability reversal point (the highest one in fact). The price then fell 82 pips to 1.4078 at 4:20 ET on 6/27/2006, and then rose 64 pips to 1.4142 at 8:30 ET on 6/27/2006. It is now likely to descend to hit the targets, as EUR/USD is rising in the last pulse of a corrective phase, before it continues with a probable strong downwards trend, while USD/CAD is now expected to continue down quite strongly in an impulsive trend.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

any thoughts on where either of these two may be heading now? i am trying to determine if their friday lows were the bottom of a trend, or a support level to bounce from before heading farther down?

thanks! and thanks for this thread. it is such a great tool when i am looking for good trade possibilities.

<TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="WIDTH: 540px; HEIGHT: 127px" cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=0 width=540 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap>Tuesday 6/27/2006 3:10 ET




Dear j9martyna,<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_69280", true); </SCRIPT>



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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Here is our take on the two currency pairs you asked about above.

EUR/USD has fallen to 1.2586 as of 2:33 ET and has now begun an upwards last five wave set heading for a probable target of 1.2650 to 1.2675. Our best guess for its destination is 1.2660. It will then most likely reverse and descend to about 1.2400 over the next one to three days. The stop on a short trade should be above 1.2685

GBP/USD just dropped to 1.8217 at 3:10 ET. It should rise from this price to about 1.8335 to 1.8350. From the reversal point in this region it should reverse and fall to about 1.8000. Stop should be at about 1.8382.

Tuesday 6/27/2006 4:00 ET

TS #103G - Exit short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4100 or lower and re-enter short position when price rises to about 1.4150 or higher.

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Previous trade signal:

Monday 6/26/2006 14:00 ET

TS #103G Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4163 or close to this price and adjust stop to 1.4185

We are chasing the top of this trend on a difficult cross currency pair. USD/CAD seems to be reversing, and EUR/CAD may have also reached a reversal point or be close to a reversal point at 1.4163. Further examination indicates that 1.4163 is a high probability reversal point also, so - re-entry close to this value is advised.

Commentary: the recommendation to exit at 1.4100 was premature, as it was based on a wrong wave count. The downwards impulse wave 3 continued down 20 more pips to 1.4080 before reversing. It came to the first Quantum target : 0 plus two pips. The length of Wave 3-0 to 3-3 is 72 pips. The fourth corrective wave rose 62 pips to 1.4142, which was the ideal re-entry price.

wow! that's a very thorough answer! thanks a lot for your analysis.

What are your thoughts on this pair now?

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:00 ET

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both came one step lower than expected, but in retrospect performed exactly according to both of our models.

EUR/USD descended to 1.2562 from which we now expect it to rise to about 1.2650 before it reverses and heads deep south.

GBP/USD descended to 1.8192 from which we now expect it to rise to 1.8280 to 1.8300 before it reverses and also heads deep south.

One could buy GBP/USD at the current price (7:20 ET) of 1.8190 to 1.8195 and have a fairly good low risk / high reward trade with a target of 1.8280 to 1.8300, by placing the stop at 1.7174.

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:10 ET

TS #103H - Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4130 or higher

EUR/CAD continued down a little further than we expected, to 1.4080. It now has risen a little less than we expected, to 1.4130, from where we expect it to reverse and head downwards for a very long journey down.

Stop is 1.4161

Target #1 is 1.3940

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Previous trade signal:

TS #103G - Exit short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4100 or lower and re-enter short position when price rises to about 1.4150 or higher.

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Monday 6/26/2006 14:00 ET

TS #103G Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4163 or close to this price and adjust stop to 1.4185

We are chasing the top of this trend on a difficult cross currency pair. USD/CAD seems to be reversing, and EUR/CAD may have also reached a reversal point or be close to a reversal point at 1.4163. Further examination indicates that 1.4163 is a high probability reversal point also, so - re-entry close to this value is advised.

Commentary: price rose to 1.4142 at 8:30 ET, over one hour after the signal was issued, then fell to the 1.4105 - 1.4125 area where it has stayed for a while. Later it fell to 1.4054, then rose to 1.4110, which would constitute a re-entry opportunity. The prospects for this trade look good.

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:30 ET

TS #110B Re-enter Sell USD/JPY at 116.55 to 116.70

This trade was just stopped out by about 7 pips. The stop should have been adjusted slightly higher according to our model. The trade is still valid. We advise re-entry at best (highest) price if necessary. Current price is 116.40. Recent high is 116.68. We expect the price to rise again to 116.55 to 116.70 to provide a favorable entry price.

Stop is 116.81

Targets are as below.

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Previous trade signals:

TS #110A Re-enter Sell USD/JPY at 116.20 to 116.55

Friday 6/23/2006 9:00 ET
TS #110 was stopped out. There was one more impulse wave up to go. Now should be the top of the trend.

TS #110A Re-enter Sell USD/JPY at 116.20 to 116.55 on a bounce
Stop is 116.61
Target #1 is 114.90
Target #2 is 114.35
Target #3 is 112.80
Risk is max. 45 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 2.8 / 4.0 / 7.4 to 1

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Thursday 6/22/2006 10:30 ET
TS #110 Sell USD/JPY at 115.80 to 115.95
Stop loss is 116.16
Risk is max. 40 pips
Target #1 is 114.35
Target #2 is 112.80
Reward is min. 140 / 296 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 3.5 / 7.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

Commentary: the price rose to 116.57 to provide an entry opportunity as expected, before falling firmly, suggesting the trade may carry to the target. An interim low of 115.97 was reached this Thursday morning June 29th at 11:30 ET. It is now retracing, and will later reverse to continue its downwards trend if our analysis is correct.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:45 ET

TS #111 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2465 to 1.2470

Stop is 1.2486

Target #1 is 1.2350

For research purposes only.

Commentary: price rose to 1.2471 twice (double top) providing a good entry opportunity, before dropping strongly, suggesting the trade will carry well.

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:45 ET

TS#105E - Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1235 to 1.1240

On Friday June 23 USD/CAD spiked up to 1.1287, triggering the stop. We now advise re-entry at the exact same price range now that USD/CAD has consolidated in the narrow price range between 1.1170 and 1.1250 for several days.

Stop is 1.1261
Target #1 is 1.1035
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 196 pips
Reward :risk ratio is 6.5 to 1

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Previous trade signals:

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday 6/23/2006 8:45 ET
TS#105D Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1235 to 1.1240
Stop is 1.1261
Target #1 is 1.1035
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 196 pips
Reward :risk ratio is 6.5 to 1
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Thursday 6/22/2006 10:15 ET
TS#105C Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1195 to 1.1200
Stop is 1.1211
Target #1 is 1.0920

For research purposes only.

Commentary: price rose nicely to 1.1241 as expected to afford us an entry opportunity. Subsequent strong movement downwards looks promising.
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Tuesday 6/27/2006 19:30 ET

The price of USD/CAD has risen to 1.1235 again, which is a perfect entry price in case someone did not enter or exited to take profit.

Stop is 1.1245

Target #1 is 1.1035

Risk is max. 14 pips

Reward is min. 196 pips

Reward :risk ratio is 14 to 1

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Previous trade signal:

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:45 ET
TS#105E - Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1235 to 1.1240
On Friday June 23 USD/CAD spiked up to 1.1287, triggering the stop. We now advise re-entry at the exact same price range now that USD/CAD has consolidated in the narrow price range between 1.1170 and 1.1250 for several days.
Stop is 1.1261
Target #1 is 1.1035
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 196 pips
Reward :risk ratio is 6.5 to 1

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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday 6/23/2006 8:45 ET
TS#105D Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1235 to 1.1240
Stop is 1.1261
Target #1 is 1.1035
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 196 pips
Reward :risk ratio is 6.5 to 1
_____________________________
Thursday 6/22/2006 10:15 ET
TS#105C Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1195 to 1.1200
Stop is 1.1211
Target #1 is 1.0920

For research purposes only.

Commentary: price rose nicely to 1.1241 as expected to afford us an entry opportunity. Subsequent strong movement downwards looks promising.
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Wednesday 6/28/2006 10:45 ET

We were stopped out on this trade.

TS#105G Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1260 to 1.1265

Stop is 1.1272

Target is as below

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Previous trade signal:

TS#105F Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1235 to 1.1240


<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Tuesday 6/27/2006 19:30 ET


The price of USD/CAD has risen to 1.1235 again, which is a perfect entry price in case someone did not enter or exited to take profit.

Stop is 1.1245

Target #1 is 1.1035

Risk is max. 14 pips

Reward is min. 196 pips

Reward :risk ratio is 14 to 1

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Wednesday 6/28/2006 10:45 ET

Stop should have been adjusted, but since it wasn't we were theoretically stopped out. Therefore,

TS #111A Re-Enter Sell USD/CHF at 1.2490 - 1.2500

Stop is 1.2506

Target #1 is 1.2350

Risk is max. 20 pips

Reward is min. 136 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.8 to 1

_________________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:45 ET

TS #111 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2465 to 1.2470

Stop is 1.2486

Target #1 is 1.2350

For research purposes only.

Commentary: price rose to 1.2471 twice (double top) providing a good entry opportunity, before dropping strongly, suggesting the trade will carry well. It carried down 58 pips to 1.2413, and reversed and rose up to slightly past our original stop at 1.2486. By the time it reached our original stop, the stop should have been adjusted to 1.2506, in which case we would still be in the original trade now, with an adjusted stop at 1.2506. It then fell during the afternoon to 1.2450, and then bounced up to 1.2471, at which point we expect it to turn around and descend again as part of the EW ABC retracement movement of the afternoon / evening.

USD/CHF did descend from 1.2476 as expected, down to about 1.2453, and then rose again, as one would expect of an upwards Wave 4 corrective wave. However it rose much higher, higher than before in fact, to a new high of 1.2500. This indicates that our previous analysis was incorrect.


However, we were not stopped out. USD/CHF then fell from 1.2500 to 1.2455, then bounced about 99% of the way back, right up to 1.2499. Our revised analysis has the same consequence - namely that a new downwards trend has been initiated, and the first target of 1.2350 is within reach of this trade.

After the FOMC announcement USD/CHF went quickly down to exactly 1.2355. We exited there, and are trading the retracement now for a few extra pips profit.

More downwards movement is coming up later. In the meantime, we are involved in a complex Wave 4 retracement, which could take some considerable time and bring us up to 1.2410 to 1.2560.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

Wednesday 6/28/2006 15:45 ET

Predictions for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for Wednesday tonight

EUR/USD went down much more than expected, not just to 1.2586, but all the way down to 1.2515, about 70 pips further down than expected.

We now expect a rise in EUR/USD to between 1.2600 and 1.2650, followed by a large fall.

Regarding GBP/USD, it fell much more than we expected, which was to 1.8217, but all the way to 1.8145, which is 72 pips further than expected.

We now expect GBP/USD to rise to between 1.8270 and 1.8310 before it reverses again and plummets with speed to the depths.

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Previous prediction:

Tuesday June 27 at about 3:00 ET

Predictions for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for tonight

EUR/USD has fallen to 1.2586 as of 2:33 ET and has now begun an upwards last five wave set heading for a probable target of 1.2650 to 1.2675. Our best guess for its destination is 1.2660. It will then most likely reverse and descend to about 1.2400 over the next one to three days. The stop on a short trade should be above 1.2685

GBP/USD just dropped to 1.8217 at 3:10 ET. It should rise from this price to about 1.8335 to 1.8350. From the reversal point in this region it should reverse and fall to about 1.8000. Stop should be at about 1.8382.

Wednesday 6/28/2006 17:00 ET

TS#89H - Sell EUR/JPY at 146.25

"What are your thoughts on this pair now?"

Quote from Itme before: "We expect EUR/JPY to descend somewhat, then rise to approx. 146.50 before turning around. EUR/USD will probably rise, which will cause EUR/JPY to rise."


This pair did as expected. However, it rose because USD/JPY rose, not because EUR/USD rose.

EUR/JPY rose to 146.60, then fell to 145.65, from which point it retraced rapidly to 146.25, which constitutes a re-entry opportunity for a long short trade, with a target of 144.75.

Sell EUR/JPY at 146.25

Stop would be 146.41

Target is 144.75

Risk is 20 pips

Reward is 146 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.3 to 1

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Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/23/2006 15:00 ET

TS#89G - Sell EUR/JPY at 145.83
Stop is 145.95
Risk is only 26 pips
Target #1 is 144.40
Reward is 139 pips
Reward: risk ratio is 5.3 to 1
(nb. - this trade was stopped out by a rise to 146.61 on 6/27)
______________________

Thursday 6/22/2006 13:30 ET
TS#89F - Sell EUR/JPY - stay out of trade for now
We were stopped out on this trade when the EUR/JPY went all the way up to 146.26. We believe that it will rise one more time. Then there will be an excellent entry opportunity.

Wednesday 6/21/2006 11:15 ET
We were stopped out on our last short trade by 5 pips. However, we have a good re-entry opportunity.
TS#89F - Re-Entry - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 145.30 - 145.50
Stop is 1.4573
Target is 143.80
Risk is max. 47 pips
Reward is min. 146 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.1 to 1

Commentary: EUR/JPY fell to 145.50 at 11:15 ET 6/29, then bounced about 40% or 30 pips up, then descended to about the same level. This trade is progressing well so far. EUR/JPY rose late on 6/29 to 146.14, then started down again. It should make good progress now.
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Wednesday 6/28/2006 18:15 ET

Buy opportunity on GBP/USD impending at 1.8165 - 1.8172

Quote from above: "Regarding GBP/USD, it fell much more than we expected, which was to 1.8217, but all the way to 1.8145, which is 72 pips further than expected.

We now expect GBP/USD to rise to between 1.8270 and 1.8310 before it reverses again and plummets with speed to the depths."

GBP/USD just fell as expected to about 1.8172, which presents a low risk / medium reward opportunity with a target of between 1.8270 and 1.8310.

Stop is about 1.8159, so the risk is abut 20 pips, with a possible gain of as much as 160 pips.

Hi itme:

I'm new to Forex trading (about 3 months demo and live account - have read tons of stuff, tested, courses...sleepless nights...everything that makes a traders life) and have come across your other thread (the one about how to take 7 US$ to 770......billions, trillions).

Now, your mathematical thoughts behind these trades are genius! I am very much attracted by the mathematics behind Forex, but haven't find good solutions so far.

My question is: The trades you are using here (like going long on GBP/USD at 1.8165 - 1.8172 and selling at maybe 1.8310) - they are certainly not daytrading? I have read so far 13 pages of this thread (out of the 39) and it seems to me that you mostlikely aim for bigger profits (sometimes as much as 400 pips???) How long do you leave the trade? That must be like weeks...??? I apologize if you have explained this already, somewhere else....if you did, please tell me so, I will look for the particular post.

Also: What do you do in days with FA's? I mean tomorrow (FOMC meeting, June 29th, 2006) could puzzle some of your calculations?

Thanks for any answer. I'm learning here - thanks and congratulations for the genius trades!!!

That one didn't work out too well, huh?

The stop was tight though which is a good thing.