Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 154 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,061
  • Oct 3, 2013 5:15am Oct 3, 2013 5:15am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Ah ic thanks for the clarification, so its like the confluence of positive factors allows for some tweaking, got it! Btw regarding your GBPNZD trade, price came really close to D1 CP supply, not sure if that had anything to do with the H4 demand failing. {image} Also took a loss on NZDJPY H4 short, grrrrr..... {image}
Hi myst1z and all traders,

Levels that you draw look very good for me according to rules.
However, even if we think that along with the Daily down trend, Daily demands should be taken out and supplys being respected, i personally dont continue to short on lower time frame zones when we arrive daily resistance zones.

an example of this also can be seen on NZD/USD i was trying to get long on H1 demand areas but once we reach the blue line on Daily TF, i stop looking to go long.
and moreover, ofcourse it doesnt mean that when we reach to the blue line i want to reverse my idea and start looking to go shorts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd_daily.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd_daily.png Size: 24 KB
  • #3,062
  • Oct 3, 2013 5:17am Oct 3, 2013 5:17am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Also took a loss on NZDJPY H4 short, grrrrr.....
i guess your stop was bad. better use swing high. but also this one are often tested for shaking out.
  • #3,063
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:07am Oct 3, 2013 6:07am
Stand out Thread..................................................
  • #3,064
  • Edited 7:27am Oct 3, 2013 7:17am | Edited 7:27am
I am holding a new live webinar tomorrow Friday at from 1 pm to 3 pm CEST
Those interested in attending please send me a private message over Forex Factory or fill out this form: http://eepurl.com/F_b7v
If you have already contacted me in the past, you don not need to do it again, you will get the link in your inbox in a while

Date: Friday 4th October 2013
Time: 1 pm to 2 pm CEST, right 1 hour before NY Market Open

What will the webinar cover?

  1. CP against the trend, how to use multiple timeframe analysis with CP patterns
  2. What makes a SD area valid and what negates it
  3. We'll locate and plan some swing trades for next week at H4 and D1 SD levels

If you are interested in attending, read above on how to join tomorrow's webinar.

The webinar will be recorded and shared with you as always!
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,065
  • Oct 3, 2013 8:12am Oct 3, 2013 8:12am
Hi to all,

I have a buy setup on uk brent oil weekly/4h combo.
we are at weekly CP demand.
previous 4H downtrend line broken.
loking to go long at new CP on 4H TF.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: brent_oil_weekly.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: brent_oil_H4.png Size: 31 KB
  • #3,066
  • Oct 3, 2013 8:44am Oct 3, 2013 8:44am
It looks like Russel 2000 H1 long is working, as well as Nasdaq e-mini H4 long, hopefully they will be runners.

On H1 I just wanted to buy since we are bullish and bouncing off D1 demand. What did I do then? Trade the CPs or nice imbalances.

Still holding other trades on the D1 chart and H4... I had that GBPNZD H4 long short, but all the other 7-8 trades are working. We'll see!
Alfonso
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 100 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,067
  • Oct 3, 2013 8:55am Oct 3, 2013 8:55am
Still holding the D1 short on silver, it's been almost 2 weeks since I got triggered. It's the trade I've held the longer until now. As most of you probably know, I am trading 3 live accounts, one for H1 setups, a second for H4 and a third for D1 position setups.

This one trade on Silver D1 short was triggered the 18th September, so it's been quite a while I closed part of my trade, so I will keep on holding, hopefully it will reach my target, else it doesn't matter, I just have to hold because I don't know what's gonna happen!

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 134 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,068
  • Oct 3, 2013 9:31am Oct 3, 2013 9:31am
Alfonso what are your maen pare you trade do you focus on ? Thank for this .
  • #3,069
  • Oct 3, 2013 9:52am Oct 3, 2013 9:52am
Great Job Alfonso !!
  • #3,070
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:28pm Oct 3, 2013 1:28pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} As far as the D1 CP demand I took on the AUDJPY, let me explain to you my rationale, it "makes sense" you will see.There are many little nuances that experience will tell you, like @kanzler said the other day. It's a D1 CP, my curve is the Monthly. Take a look at the monthly and tell me what you see. My Monthly supply is way above, price reverted to the mean (20 EMA) and hit a D1 CP demand with an unfilled gap that caused the absorption of the previous resistance (supply) D1 CP with unfilled gap, strongest look of demand you can have Since...
Thank you very much for your explanation, Alfonso, it makes perfect sense when looking at the D1 CP from the HTF perspective. I will log it and remember it.
  • #3,071
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:36pm Oct 3, 2013 1:36pm
i took a short at audnzd speedbump.

what do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 12 KB
  • #3,072
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:57pm Oct 3, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting panoramia
Planning a D1 long on GBPUSD at 1.5817-ish. I am not using the upper purple rectangle because it's too much trading in the area, departure is not that good and not a great profit margin. The lower one has an unfilled gap, a great explosive departure and little time at the level. Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso, I hope you don't mind but I need to pick your brain a little. This concerns the way SD zones in control are drawn and this pair is a very good example. The way I have drawn the monthly and weekly won't allow me to go long, only shorts, so I would like your expertise in helping me understand what I have done incorrectly in drawing my supply zones here.
I can only guess at your monthly from the indicator stating you are at 88% of the monthly curve but it seems both zones I have drawn are correct by the rules and the lower one is closer to price and so it should be the one used.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-03_1138GBPUSD_MONTHLY.png Size: 84 KB


The same sort of thing is happening on my weekly. You are at 69% of the curve allowing you to go long and I am inside my weekly supply at 119%. I realize drawing zones is an art but I'm not sure what I am doing against the rules. Help!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-03_1149GBPUSD_WEEKLY.png Size: 79 KB

Thanks again, Greg
  • #3,073
  • Oct 3, 2013 2:07pm Oct 3, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting fandarana
i took a short at audnzd speedbump. what do you guys think? {image}

Hi fandarana, be careful, it's a doji and in my humble understanding of the rules dojis are not good to trade off of. Also, on my charts I am inside weekly demand so I can only go long from here....good luck with your trade. Greg
  • #3,074
  • Oct 3, 2013 2:32pm Oct 3, 2013 2:32pm
I am taking the EU H4 short. It appears to be inside D1 F&O and Weekly F&O supply so I have drilled down to H4..what do you guys think? There is also an H1 level further up I set if this one doesn't work out. Greg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-03_1222_EU_W.png Size: 84 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-03_1230_EU_H4.png Size: 59 KB
  • #3,075
  • Oct 3, 2013 3:09pm Oct 3, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting Nvrgvup
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I hope you don't mind but I need to pick your brain a little. This concerns the way SD zones in control are drawn and this pair is a very good example. The way I have drawn the monthly and weekly won't allow me to go long, only shorts, so I would like your expertise in helping me understand what I have done incorrectly in drawing my supply zones here. I can only guess at your monthly from the indicator stating you are at 88% of the monthly curve but it seems both zones I have drawn are correct by the rules and the lower one is...
Greg, we'll cover these zones tomorrow on the webinar, it will be faster to explain it. Zones are correctly painted, when I have levels on top of levels I tend to go to the furthest away in price, that's the only reason. Within those monthly zones there are nice D1 zones.

If you have a wide Monthly supply zone on top of another one, the wisest thing is to wait and go short for swing and position trading, You can still buy on intra-day or intra-swing basis taking into account D1 zones, but it's all up to you on how patient you want to be or how long you want to wait.

But we'll cover this and other issues tomorrow in the webinar ok Greg?
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,076
  • Edited 4:29pm Oct 3, 2013 3:18pm | Edited 4:29pm
I missed scaling in on my active H4 CADPJPY supply short. I took this short the other day, I was not stopped out by a couple of pips since my zone was overshort by a few pips. Clear example of why using 10 pips wiggle room on cross pairs and H4 zones.

My SL is now above the new H4 supply and still room to previous demand. There was a nice H4 supply right underneath my entry to scale in another position but it didn't reach my entry.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 125 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,077
  • Oct 3, 2013 3:23pm Oct 3, 2013 3:23pm
I had taken a H4 short on NZDCHF the other day (posted here) but I moved my SL a bit lower after the nice drop, it retraced and took me out of the trade but with some profits. It looks like the newly formed H4 supply triggered another entry, a new opportunity to short NZDCHF that follows the rules.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 150 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,078
  • Oct 3, 2013 3:40pm Oct 3, 2013 3:40pm
It looks like I got triggered short on EURGBP D1 supply, D1 trade. I mentioned it this morning in the thread. Let's see if this short wants to work or not.
I should pay attention to the D1 CP demand, it has a strong departure and could ruin my trade... we'll see

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 130 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,079
  • Oct 3, 2013 3:53pm Oct 3, 2013 3:53pm
GBPJPY has some nice H4 supply levels which could be good as shorting opportunities. The top one is drilled down.
We're at Monthly supply on this pair, so shorting is the way to go for me!

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 121 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,080
  • Oct 3, 2013 4:03pm Oct 3, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting Nvrgvup
I am taking the EU H4 short. It appears to be inside D1 F&O and Weekly F&O supply so I have drilled down to H4..what do you guys think? There is also an H1 level further up I set if this one doesn't work out. Greg {image} {image}
I am doing nothing on the euro as far as shorts are related, nor on the pound. The $index has broken D1 CP demand and dropping to Weekly demand. Not good for shorts on the majors! I was expecting that so I didn't do anything, I am being a good boy and waiting for some action.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 125 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
4 traders viewing now