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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,701
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:28am Sep 30, 2013 4:28am
Quoting SimpleDev
GU 1h
Chart is littered with weakness.

Do you see the orange bars? Looks as if there could have been some strength coming in there, but if you look any where to the left of the chart you would know to leave it alone.
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  • #24,702
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:56am Sep 30, 2013 5:56am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Chart is littered with weakness. Do you see the orange bars? Looks as if there could have been some strength coming in there, but if you look any where to the left of the chart you would know to leave it alone.


Morning SimpleDev


Acknowledging the weakness but I'm seeing a price rejection at Fridays highest volume hourly candle followed by a two bar reversal and then a potential test in an uptrend. . . .

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  • #24,703
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:07am Sep 30, 2013 7:07am
Quoting tea.tea
{quote} Morning SimpleDev Acknowledging the weakness but I'm seeing a price rejection at Fridays highest volume hourly candle followed by a two bar reversal and then a potential test in an uptrend. . . . {image}
You could be right, but I prefer to use S/R and S/D zones for profit areas rather than developing a bias.

Rather keep my bias and entry points straight forward with VSA, now we are seeing some more demand come in which cause me to BE.

1h is in an up trend which means that the downside is limited I am only trying to run this down to the daily pivot at 6105.
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  • #24,704
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:10am Sep 30, 2013 8:10am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} You could be right, but I prefer to use S/R and S/D zones for profit areas rather than developing a bias. Rather keep my bias and entry points straight forward with VSA, now we are seeing some more demand come in which cause me to BE. 1h is in an up trend which means that the downside is limited I am only trying to run this down to the daily pivot at 6105. {image}

Thanks for that post and for keeping this thread alive
I think the lack of demand was the missing piece in my analysis that confused me.
  • #24,705
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:45pm Sep 30, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting tea.tea
{quote} Thanks for that post and for keeping this thread alive I think the lack of demand was the missing piece in my analysis that confused me.
I wouldn't thank me.. I am no HiddenGap or Malcolm.

Maybe today we will see some result from the weakness.
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  • #24,706
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:48pm Sep 30, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting SimpleDev
UCHF 4h.. Yellow shows potential strength, red shows a weak reaction to the strength. Thinking my plan for the day is if I see a bounce at the low of the yellow bar to look for longs on 15m with an up trend, and if price breaks through the low of the yellow bar to look for shorts below the low of the yellow bar with a 15m entry and a down trend. {image}
Bounce...
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  • #24,707
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:37pm Sep 30, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Bounce...

There is a lot of volume/activity in those bars. I would wait for a small rise and testing on low volume before I enter. Low volume testing is key in Forex as high volume testing is indicating either supply or demand is still present. Markets will always test on low volume before they breakout, Gavin talks about this lots in older VSA seminars. He also trades off them.
  • #24,708
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:21pm Sep 30, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Low volume testing is key in Forex as high volume testing is indicating either supply or demand is still present. Markets will always test on low volume before they breakout.
That explains a lot! And it makes perfect sense too.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #24,709
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:58am Oct 1, 2013 1:58am
Quoting Sonofsin5
{quote} There is a lot of volume/activity in those bars. I would wait for a small rise and testing on low volume before I enter. Low volume testing is key in Forex as high volume testing is indicating either supply or demand is still present. Markets will always test on low volume before they breakout, Gavin talks about this lots in older VSA seminars. He also trades off them.
Excellent lesson, putting it up on my wall. It seems like the past year or so that high volume tests are more prevalent than low volume tests and made it a bad habit of trading both high volume and low volume.

Well for now it doesn't appear UCHF will see a trend change, may have to wait till later in US session or tomorrow if at all.
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  • #24,710
  • Oct 1, 2013 10:54pm Oct 1, 2013 10:54pm
Lets see what happens with EJ.

1h, trend is down, yellow bars are selling, orange bar is potential strength, but price just rejected the low of the orange bar.

15m, trend down and a 2 bar.
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  • #24,711
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:04am Oct 2, 2013 9:04am
Quoting Sonofsin5
{quote} And a bull you should be! A high chance with specs heavy short pre and post FOMC; large accumulation prior to "non tapering" and volume signals are all pointing north. There were a few signal calls by large banks yesterday pumping a sell on the pair, this in itself is a great long indicator.
Euro is showing some signs of exhaustion. I have no longs above 3500 now, the GU and EUR are looking like they are getting top heavy. Waiting for confirmation.
  • #24,712
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:26am Oct 2, 2013 9:26am
Quoting Sonofsin5
{quote} Euro is showing some signs of exhaustion. I have no longs above 3500 now, the GU and EUR are looking like they are getting top heavy. Waiting for confirmation.
Yeah, I'm waiting GU to return to .5700 - .5500. But I was waiting this also 400 pips ago

Edit: I think Benny will save the day and month later with his "oct-taper" speech
  • #24,713
  • Oct 2, 2013 5:18pm Oct 2, 2013 5:18pm
Check out your NZDUSD charts, daily!
Nice chance at a low risk long here.
  • #24,714
  • Oct 2, 2013 7:30pm Oct 2, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Check out your NZDUSD charts, daily! Nice chance at a low risk long here.
Not bad on 1h either.

8375 will be an important level to watch for supply, daily close off of 9/19.
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  • #24,715
  • Oct 2, 2013 8:15pm Oct 2, 2013 8:15pm
A little concerned about the rounded top on 1h, but lets see what happens today anyways.
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  • #24,716
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:47pm Oct 2, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting SimpleDev
A little concerned about the rounded top on 1h, but lets see what happens today anyways. {image} {image}
This post actually is a good excuse for my rant.

I have been reading various threads on FF, and the latest trend is people are no longer using stop losses and averaging down their losses until they turn it into profit. There are a ton of people right now crying that they got a margin call on GU because of this. I saved my rant due to I don't want to be that duchebag who barges into other people's threads and tells them they're doing it wrong.

My first rule of trading is capital preservation, second rule is to make money. It seem as if people are reversing these rules, my question is how are you going to make money if you have no capital? I am not Goldman Sachs, I will never have all the information, I am not formally taught how to trade so I will have losses. This means that I am not going to get all butt hurt because I take a loss, I am prepared for them.

So this is how my AU trade relates to this rant, I have been trading VSA for 3 years, it took a year or so before I realized what was and wasn't a risky trade, so I demo traded. Demo traded while I built up my capital and got better and able to recognize excellent trades and trades that where questionable. This AU trade I wouldn't say it risky or questionable, but I am concerned so my trade size is half of my normal size. Yesterday EJ was an excellent trade so I traded a full position.

Trading is 100% a mental game, you have to actively think and analyze everything you do. So do only what makes sense to you.
  • #24,717
  • Oct 3, 2013 12:49am Oct 3, 2013 12:49am
Quoting SimpleDev
A little concerned about the rounded top on 1h, but lets see what happens today anyways. {image} {image}
2 rejections of the top, probably not going to break the top today.
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  • #24,718
  • Oct 3, 2013 2:26am Oct 3, 2013 2:26am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Yeah, I'm waiting GU to return to .5700 - .5500. But I was waiting this also 400 pips ago Edit: I think Benny will save the day and month later with his "oct-taper" speech
Ben has no impact to the market
  • #24,719
  • Oct 3, 2013 2:48am Oct 3, 2013 2:48am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Ben has no impact to the market
Be patient, there are still a few accounts to be blown up before it heads down. Looks like a big sell off yesterday though.
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  • #24,720
  • Edited 12:41pm Oct 3, 2013 12:28pm | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} This post actually is a good excuse for my rant. I have been reading various threads on FF, and the latest trend is people are no longer using stop losses and averaging down their losses until they turn it into profit. There are a ton of people right now crying that they got a margin call on GU because of this.
You do realize that ranting to a mostly empty room makes you look crazy ...

I do agree with what you have said in your post though. No SL and averaging down makes you look heroic when it works out before you bust but long run this ultimately ends with margin calls for most who try.
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