Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 151 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,001
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:23pm Oct 1, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} The truth is, no indicator is going to be able to teach you which setups are going to be good and which are just crap. Supply and demand is key but not all of them are as tasty looking as others...sometimes the context of the fundamentals news is important to what needs to be done. Eventually you get a "feel" for it. Honestly I hate these kinds of threads, especially the ones that give you an indicator and tell you that you can do it just like the big boys... but I thought I'd throw my two cents your way.
I honestly don't even use the indicator, nor did I ever refer to it in my post, so I am unsure why you posted such a reply.

My post was specifically regarding what it says. Perhaps you should read it again. It has nothing to do with failure of zones or indicators.

And i apologise if this post seems confrontational. I am just not in a good mood lately, and your post thoroughly annoys me.
  • #3,002
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:26pm Oct 1, 2013 9:26pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} That really is the crux of the matter isn't it? One has to develop a "feel' for it and that takes a long time to develop, and it never stops developing. It is simply impossible to develop this "feel" in a few weeks or months.....
Absolutely. Newbies can get this but it takes more than a few months and more dedication to continual learning than most understand or are willing to invest.

Quoting Tok
{quote} I honestly don't even use the indicator, nor did I ever refer to it in my post, so I am unsure why you posted such a reply. My post was specifically regarding what it says. Perhaps you should read it again. It has nothing to do with failure of zones or indicators. And i apologise if this post seems confrontational. I am just not in a good mood lately, and your post thoroughly annoys me.
It's fine. The indicator part wasn't really a specific reply to your post even though I quoted you - what caught my attention in your post was your discussion of how his zones change. That's a nuance based on experience.
  • #3,003
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:31pm Oct 1, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Absolutely. Newbies can get this but it takes more than a few months and more dedication to continual learning than most understand or are willing to invest. {quote} It's fine. The indicator part wasn't really a specific reply to your post even though I quoted you - what caught my attention in your post was your discussion of how his zones change. That's a nuance based on experience.
Sigh..

It has nothing to do with zones changing. But nevermind, I just don't have it in me to explain.

I assume people who understand the method will know what i am referring to.
  • #3,004
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:33pm Oct 1, 2013 9:33pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} That really is the crux of the matter isn't it? One has to develop a "feel' for it and that takes a long time to develop, and it never stops developing. It is simply impossible to develop this "feel" in a few weeks or months.....

This is true to anything that we try to excel at, but once you are at a high level of experience & understanding then its easier to apply rules around your understanding. I find emotion extremely hard to control or eliminate & I still have this problem after 4 years of trading but my growing confidence in my trading ability & trading rules is what reduces my emotion slowly over time. Maybe one day I will be emotion free, then I can call myself a real trader.
  • #3,005
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:43pm Oct 1, 2013 9:43pm
Quoting Tok
{quote} Sigh.. It has nothing to do with zones changing. But nevermind, I just don't have it in me to explain. I assume people who understand the method will know what i am referring to.
I read your previous post and I know what you're talking about. I've traded this way for nearly a year now and I know that sometimes the way you draw the zones changes. Sometimes you add the wick sometimes you don't. It depends on your own judgment of where you think the bulk of the orders are at and sometimes you reduce the zone to lower your risk zone...reducing all of this to a few hard/fast rules isn't possible, although generalities can be made. But I guess your question wasn't addressed to me so I'll stop at that.
  • #3,006
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:50pm Oct 1, 2013 9:50pm
Hi Guys , Where are the videos ? I can't seem to find anyone working...
can someone point to a working link ?
thanks ~
  • #3,007
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:58pm Oct 1, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting Tok
{quote} Sigh.. It has nothing to do with zones changing. But nevermind, I just don't have it in me to explain. I assume people who understand the method will know what i am referring to.
I'll be honest ive not read all of Alfonso's rules but as an OTA graduate many years ago, I follow similar rules & understanding. However with supply & demand there are many ways to trade. There are counter trend traders that do extremely well but may have a high losses but with an amazing reward to risk ratio, but how many people can tolerate many losses without doubting there strategy. Answer... hardly any. As for trend followers they are getting in after everyone else & have a high chance of getting in to late & not hitting targets (emotional way to trade too), so where's the balance? There is no balance just probabilities & risk to reward ratio. Both methods work if you understand where entries, stops & targets should be for any given methodology. This is the only control in the market you really have, but the biggest battle is going to be your own emotion. I've still not mastered mine. I believe Alfonso has a good understanding about supply & demand which will enable him to maybe choose levels which sound contradictory but make perfect sense to the understanding supply & demand trader. Rules will from time to time be subjective & emotion plays a large part of this. Im hoping Alfonso will answer your question with a rational explanation but sometimes it wont help until you reach a level of supply & demand understanding. Welcome to the world of catch 22.
  • #3,008
  • Oct 1, 2013 10:04pm Oct 1, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting Pro Trader
{quote} This is true to anything that we try to excel at, but once you are at a high level of experience & understanding then its easier to apply rules around your understanding. I find emotion extremely hard to control or eliminate & I still have this problem after 4 years of trading but my growing confidence in my trading ability & trading rules is what reduces my emotion slowly over time. Maybe one day I will be emotion free, then I can call myself a real trader.
I won't hijack this thread, but I don't think emotion free trading exists.....and my analogy on the subject is here
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #3,009
  • Oct 1, 2013 10:14pm Oct 1, 2013 10:14pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I won't hijack this thread, but I don't think emotion free trading exists.....and my analogy on the subject is here
Makes sense.
  • #3,010
  • Oct 1, 2013 10:26pm Oct 1, 2013 10:26pm
Quoting Pro Trader
{quote} Maybe im wrong but AUDJPY daily supply is now in control so I have shorted the pullback to daily supply. Its also bouncing from weekly supply (non trend direction) but has room to weekly demand. Again the monthly demand is non trend Demand but has room to bounce higher to monthly supply. So following daily supply/demand with room on the weekly curve is why im shorting. If I was to go long now then I would at least wait for daily demand to form which means higher highs again or wait till we are back into weekly demand. Please feel free to...
Please post a chart or two so we can visually see what you mean.

I'd also like you to point out the weekly supply bounce you mentioned.

Thx
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #3,011
  • Oct 1, 2013 11:39pm Oct 1, 2013 11:39pm
Quoting outapips
{quote} Please post a chart or two so we can visually see what you mean. I'd also like you to point out the weekly supply bounce you mentioned. Thx
My mistake I was looking at audusd & correlating this pair with audjpy for a short bounce. The set up for me was audjpy daily supply with 60 min divergence in daily supply. Late night...
  • #3,012
  • Oct 2, 2013 1:00am Oct 2, 2013 1:00am
Quoting Tok
{quote} Alfonso, Have you changed the way you draw Supply and demand? Because the speedbump you marked is definitely 100% not the way you have been teaching for 90% of the thread. For instance, you have never included the top wick in an uptrend, unless it is the beginning of a downtrend that consumed demand. It was always the body and the lower wick in an uptrend. So technically, that zone did not consume demand. And previously I am reading that you said reactions are still valid new, fresh zones. They are just not original. But now I see you are...
First of all, you should pay attention to what I say and why I draw what I draw. The zone you are referring to at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post6996455 is not the exact zone itself, the right way to draw is exactly as you said. Anybody can see that the red zone was not painted with the rectangle indicator, but with the screen capture application I use (jing). It was a quick rectangle I drew to show what I was trying to put forward, nothing else. The real and exact rectangle is not that one but I didn't have my MT platform open and I wanted to show the zones on top of the attached screenshot. If you have been following my thread and read all of it as you claimed (even though a few posts later you claimed you didn't), you will know that red box is not an indicator but something drawn quickly.

Secondly, I always draw the zones the same way. But since you have not read the whole thread, you don't know if I did or not, if it happens that I did it in a different way then there must be a reason for it, which I might explained or not. I can't post a screenshot and explain every single object on the chart, you have to do your homework and use common sense. Not only common sense but allow for some months, even years, for the knowledge to sink in. Other users commented on this and I agree with them 100%, most people is not willing to invest so much time. If you are that kind of person, you shouldn't be reading my thread and trying to confuse others with your comments. First do your homework, then ask others to do their homework. Your homework is not reading the thread, but reading them and allowing for some months for that knowledge to sink in. Many will never make if because of that reason, I can't help there. Sometimes I will draw a level differently because experience tells me to do so, nothing else. I can't explain that to you, I will not try to explain it because you won't understand, you first needs new neuron's connections, you have to work your way through it and invest months, even years to doing the same thing over and over and over. But most will switch to another methodology and they will start over and making the same mistakes again.

I can't help much until you or anybody in the thread reaches a real understanding of how level of supply & demand works, or if you are not willing to spend months studying and many others backtesting it. Trading demo/live with no backtesting and a sound plan is a loop you will never be able to break. Like another member said, one has to develop a "feel' for it and that takes a long time to develop, most will never develop that feeling.

Thirdly, my trading plan is alive, so should yours or anybody's. It's changed since I first wrote it, so should yours. If you don't understand that a trading plan is a living entity, then you should not trade. If you are just looking at how others are supposedly making "mistakes" instead of looking at yourself in the mirror, then you should do something else. I make many mistakes, many of them, and I am proud of them since each mistake makes me a better trader and a better person.

Emotions cannot be removed from the markets, it's a fact. @Realjumper said that and I agree with him.

Let's continue with trading analysis, this thread is not a psychologist's couch, sometimes it has to be but the origin of the original message was based on the fact that you wanted to see something else, you wanted to condense years of experience on a couple of charts and a couple rules. That is not possible on trading or any other area of life. Time is key, if you, or anybody else, are not willing or not ready for that big sacrifice, you should skip my thread.

I hope that's clear, I am not going to tolerate this kind of messages where I am judged about something I have not done (I could have done wrong, of course), but it all comes from the fact that you have not done your homework as a common sensical trader and person. That's not my problem or anybody's problem, it's yours, one you have to solve it by yourself, we can't help you in that cause.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,013
  • Edited 1:11am Oct 2, 2013 1:01am | Edited 1:11am
Hi here are some setups I'm looking at for today. Comments are welcome please!

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I've also removed my GPBAUD order mentioned here. Could still work out but I don't like where it went to (major S/R flip around 1.72, very close to daily demand), and how it is approaching (strong bull momentum, taken out H1 supply etc).
  • #3,014
  • Oct 2, 2013 1:05am Oct 2, 2013 1:05am
Quoting Tok
{quote} I honestly don't even use the indicator, nor did I ever refer to it in my post, so I am unsure why you posted such a reply. My post was specifically regarding what it says. Perhaps you should read it again. It has nothing to do with failure of zones or indicators. And i apologise if this post seems confrontational. I am just not in a good mood lately, and your post thoroughly annoys me.
Hello Tok,
Sorry to say this. If you are not in a good mood, do not reply to other's posts in such a way, walk away and don't trade. I will not allow any negativity on this thread, your messages disturb me and others. If I see something like this again, I will have to take action about it.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,015
  • Oct 2, 2013 1:13am Oct 2, 2013 1:13am
It looks like my CADJPY short at H4 supply is working. This was a trade I mentioned a few days ago. It's been doing nothing since I was triggered, it even overshot my level like my Silver D1 short did almost a couple of weeks ago (still holding that trade). This is a clear example of why we should add a bigger wiggle room to H4 levels and cross pairs.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,016
  • Oct 2, 2013 1:32am Oct 2, 2013 1:32am
Looking to short GBPUSD at daily supply. Daily chart show nice move away last time and we also have levels on levels. Really should have been short on set and forget trade on H4 but missed that so looking to go short on retest. Both H4 and H1 have a trend line break but will set order off at H4 level.

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If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #3,017
  • Oct 2, 2013 1:59am Oct 2, 2013 1:59am
Quoting Myst1z
Hi here are some setups I'm looking at for today. Comments are welcome please! {image} {image} {image} I've also removed my GPBAUD order mentioned here. Could still work out but I don't like where it went to (major S/R flip around 1.72, very close to daily demand), and how it is approaching (strong bull momentum, taken out H1 supply etc).
Ivan, thanks for posting the trades you are looking at today. I also have Russell and Nasdaq on my list. S&P is not that clear, it's the weakest of all 3 indexes.

As far as NZDJPY H4 short, I am not trading that pair normally, but it looks like a nice H4 supply, price is coming off WK supply. I don't trade SD/SR flips, I just look at current time and trade what I see. Adding the SR/SD flips would be adding new rules, I just look up and left to locate a supply level to short, or down and left to locate a demand level to go long. Simple! I believe you have your rules, so that's great In my case, if price was reacting to some SR/SD flip, then bad luck, next one In fact that flip you are talking about on NZDJPY matches lat month high (blue beads) on my attached screenshot, but I have no rules for that, I just don't take flips into account for now! Look at what price did the last time it bounced from that area at the Weekly supply, right where the SR flip is there was a D1 CP supply created, price didn't stay long at that zone and kept on dropping.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,018
  • Oct 2, 2013 2:09am Oct 2, 2013 2:09am
Will sell USD/CAD at fresh &original CP . Currently is going higher on daily curve, and will be around 50% weekly when reaches daily CP . Also, a round number there .
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  • #3,019
  • Oct 2, 2013 2:28am Oct 2, 2013 2:28am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Ivan, thanks for posting the trades you are looking at today. I also have Russell and Nasdaq on my list. S&P is not that clear, it's the weakest of all 3 indexes. As far as NZDJPY H4 short, I am not trading that pair normally, but it looks like a nice H4 supply, price is coming off WK supply. I don't trade SD/SR flips, I just look at current time and trade what I see. Adding the SR/SD flips would be adding new rules, I just look up and left to locate a supply level to short, or down and left to locate a demand level to go long. Simple! I...
Hi Alfonso, agreed S&P and Dow seem to have a different story from the other US indices atm, not considering them for longs. However Dow is approaching daily demand which is the source of the recent rally that took out daily supply, would be interesting to see what transpires there...

And its good to know S/R flips don't affect your decisions, this is something that has always bothered me because they're probably the most watched levels. You've probably done lots of testing and from experience concluded that these levels don't affect your trading results. In fact I've noticed from some of your previous trades that you sometimes trade into S/R levels (something that would have bothered me) but your trades worked out anyway. Will take note of this and try not to get too preoccupied with these levels!

As always thanks a lot for your comments, learning something new from them everyday!
  • #3,020
  • Oct 2, 2013 2:34am Oct 2, 2013 2:34am
Quoting markot
Will sell USD/CAD at fresh &original CP . Currently is going higher on daily curve, and will be around 50% weekly when reaches daily CP . Also, a round number there . {image}
That CP is not on my chart and looks like a Sunday bar to me. Just mentioning it in case you're not aware.
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
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