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Beyond the Candles

  • #1,441
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:39am Sep 27, 2013 2:39am
Thank you fxgroup !

Here is a EURGBP WEEKLY chart, which we studied under your guidance some time ago, with the clear box RM structure. I thought it might be quite educative for the people studying your method, as it shows how important it is to wait for confirmation once a breakout out of a RM / Box happens.

We can see how there was a breakout down, then a bullish candle ( probably taking out all the stops of the early sellers ). Now it seems to resume its downward course, but yet again I want to wait for a weekly close.

One question : you use the ThinkorSwim charts from TDAmeritrade, would you recommend them as a demo application ( which is free I think ), or do you use the real account in order to get realtime data ?

Just asking, because it can be quite expensive for most people, if they have to signup for esignal, Metastock etc. and all the rest of the overpriced datafeeds.

Any suggestion welcome - it might be useful, as I have quite a lot of friends who are just starting out and on a low budget, or students etc.

Best wishes to all !

Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-27 09_29_51-5015773_ [EURGBP,Weekly].gif Size: 30 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,442
  • Sep 27, 2013 3:23am Sep 27, 2013 3:23am
EURAUD Weekly

Shows consolidation after extremely strong advance, without much of a retrace. I will wait and compare to AUD pairs, if this move higher can be continued above 1.5000 BRN.

Due to the AUD battered down so much ( although it still pays a high % ) and a double base forming on Daily in AUDUSD, it will need extrmely strong demand for EUR to move EURAUD even higher.....lets wait and see !

Mike

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-27 10_15_53-5015773_ [EURAUD,Weekly].gif Size: 9 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,443
  • Sep 28, 2013 1:34am Sep 28, 2013 1:34am
AUDJPY Monthly

It was all about the Yen in 2013, and here we have AUDJPY Monthly, the yellow levels show rejection of price above and below quite well.

As in EURGBP I find it helpful for students of fxgroup to look at the development in charts that have been covered previously. At that time we had excellent charts from dfumagalli and fxgroup, both described the candles and their meaning, - both inside the box / RM and then the breakout higher.

Since then price has dropped again to the upper end of the RM - it now has to decide if there will be another run higher until years end, or a drop again inside the RM area.

Thank you fxgroup !

Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-28 08_28_55-5015773_ [AUDJPY,Monthly].gif Size: 33 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,444
  • Sep 28, 2013 3:12am Sep 28, 2013 3:12am
EURAUD Daily.

Double top or just a stop hunting dive, in order to have more buyers strength/liquidity for a move above 1.5000 ? Add-on to the weekly chart I posted above.

Mike

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-28 09_47_58-5015773_ [EURAUD,Daily].gif Size: 25 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,445
  • Sep 28, 2013 3:15am Sep 28, 2013 3:15am
CADJPY Daily.

Shows very clear horizontal and dynamic structure. We have since May 2013 this sideway market in USDJPY ( the 1st time Ben Bernanke mentioned tapering ), here in CADJPY we see some similar sideways structure that has to be resolved up or down....

Mike

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-28 10_09_28-5015773_ [CADJPY,Daily].gif Size: 29 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,446
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:36am Sep 30, 2013 4:36am
Hi Mike...interesting, simple and efficient stuffs you pointed out .....I made this video to show more !

Inserted Video
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,447
  • Oct 1, 2013 8:52am Oct 1, 2013 8:52am
Many thanks the video!!

But on the CADJPY, I didnt found any entry on the daily chart.. .
  • #1,448
  • Oct 1, 2013 11:49am Oct 1, 2013 11:49am
Quoting Beertje
Many thanks the video!! But on the CADJPY, I didnt found any entry on the daily chart.. .
You don't have to FIND...you have to WAIT !!!
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,449
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:04pm Oct 1, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting fxgroup
{quote} You don't have to FIND...you have to WAIT !!!

  • #1,450
  • Oct 9, 2013 12:17pm Oct 9, 2013 12:17pm
The trading IS simple ...USDCAD !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-09_USDCAD.png Size: 53 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,451
  • Oct 10, 2013 6:06am Oct 10, 2013 6:06am
Quoting fxgroup
The trading IS simple ...USDCAD ! {image}

I opened a position some days before. Last 4 month made a range. The weekly closed in this range too. Entry on daily chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadmonthly.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadweekly.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcaddaily.png Size: 74 KB
  • #1,452
  • Oct 10, 2013 3:13pm Oct 10, 2013 3:13pm
Another trade on the EURAUD. On the monthly chart the last 3 month candles are a formation what suggest me the sellers are there. On the weekly chart the first arrow give as the important signal, close below the last level (1.4425), the second arrow is the confirmation as an engulfing pattern. The entry is on the daily chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudmonthly.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudweekly.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurauddaily.png Size: 69 KB
  • #1,453
  • Oct 10, 2013 3:21pm Oct 10, 2013 3:21pm
I found this picture with google, I think it can help you understand what is going on , on the monthly chart.
Attached Image
  • #1,454
  • Oct 10, 2013 8:29pm Oct 10, 2013 8:29pm
Quoting Beertje
Another trade on the EURAUD. On the monthly chart the last 3 month candles are a formation what suggest me the sellers are there. On the weekly chart the first arrow give as the important signal, close below the last level (1.4425), the second arrow is the confirmation as an engulfing pattern. The entry is on the daily chart. {image} {image} {image}

Hi, looking at your weekly chart, you mention the "2nd arrow is the confirmation as an engulfing pattern", if you don't mind can you explain more on this? Because I don't really notice any engulfing pattern here.
  • #1,455
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:30am Oct 11, 2013 4:30am
Quoting sodiska
{quote} Hi, looking at your weekly chart, you mention the "2nd arrow is the confirmation as an engulfing pattern", if you don't mind can you explain more on this? Because I don't really notice any engulfing pattern here.
Yes of course.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudweekly2.png Size: 68 KB
  • #1,456
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:57am Oct 11, 2013 4:57am
Quoting Beertje
{quote} Yes of course. {image}

Hi, thanks for the revert. The engulfing you mentioning, is it bearish engulfing pattern?
  • #1,457
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:59am Oct 11, 2013 4:59am
Quoting sodiska
{quote} Hi, thanks for the revert. The engulfing you mentioning, is it bearish engulfing pattern?

Yes
  • #1,458
  • Oct 11, 2013 7:09am Oct 11, 2013 7:09am
Nice triangle,good TG the only problem is the tight space betwen the MM level..this requires a tight MM also !

USDSEK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-11_14-08_USDSEK.png Size: 47 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,459
  • Oct 11, 2013 7:35am Oct 11, 2013 7:35am
Quoting Beertje
{quote} Yes
Hi, from what I understood, bearish engulfing means body of the 2nd candle engulf the body of the 1st candle. Right? But the chart didn't show that. Or I suppose I mis-read it?
  • #1,460
  • Oct 11, 2013 7:48am Oct 11, 2013 7:48am
Quoting sodiska
{quote} Hi, from what I understood, bearish engulfing means body of the 2nd candle engulf the body of the 1st candle. Right? But the chart didn't show that. Or I suppose I mis-read it?
Yes, you have right ,but not on forex. Normal the close of the last candle is the open of the new candle on the forex market. After the weekend, when you see a small gap between the close and the open like in this situation, forget it! In my world this is an engulfing pattern.

Pict1 is a bearish engulfing on other market
Pict2 is a bullish engulfing on forex, close and open are the same (and what i said, forget the little gaps.)
Attached Images
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