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Economic Analysis VS Market Action

  • #141
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:52am Oct 1, 2013 12:52am
Quoting krunfx
as i said before US shutdown actually will make market more fear..... 1.soon stocks would tumble..... 2.carry trade will unwind.....investor will buy back yen and chf ..... 3.US credit rating AAA will be at risk......make more fear and risk averse 4.Debt ceiling increase posible...market will fear again.... 5.Posible deflation more and jobless rate surge..... 5.QE tapering maybe will not happen anytime soon.. hahaha...krunfx
US equity markets have been down for 7 of 8 days... we are getting into statistical extreme range

even with this, we have not given up many points on the SPX... get ready for a major bull market soon

QE is here to stay, party on!

Federal government shutdown means nothing for the markets... breaching the debt ceiling does, and that's not gonna happen...

its probably time to take those shorts off!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #142
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:55am Oct 1, 2013 12:55am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} no.......usd will not attractive......yen more attractive
Which is just what Abe doesn't want....and then we have his 8% sales tax increase, and we know what happened last time that card was played don't we? HAHAHAHA
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #143
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:56am Oct 1, 2013 12:56am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Which is just what Abe doesn't want....and then we have his 8% sales tax increase, and we know what happened last time that card was played don't we? HAHAHAHA

hahahhaa...the problem now...is US & the FED...as long US rate at low...it is hard to say for the yen faith!!!!ahhahaha
Bismillah
  • #144
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:57am Oct 1, 2013 12:57am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} US equity markets have been down for 7 of 8 days... we are getting into statistical extreme range even with this, we have not given up many points on the SPX... get ready for a major bull market soon QE is here to stay, party on! Federal government shutdown means nothing for the markets... breaching the debt ceiling does, and that's not gonna happen... its probably time to take those shorts off!

logic..but...lets see how market react on the US open first..hehehe
Bismillah
  • #145
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:59am Oct 1, 2013 12:59am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} hahahhaa...the problem now...is US & the FED...as long US rate at low...it is hard to say for the yen faith!!!!ahhahaha
That's right.....so Abe san needs to stop acting like an idiot and tread very carefully because there are forces greater than him at work, and they can very easily de-rail his "3 arrows" and his "2% inflation within 2 years"..... HAHAHAHAHA
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #146
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:01am Oct 1, 2013 1:01am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} logic..but...lets see how market react on the US open first..hehehe
Well, im not a day trader anyway, so if i were trading the us and eu equity markets (which i am)... I would be accumulating for a swing upwards (which i also am)

October is statistically a bullish month on high volume, we are at the precipice of high drama (which is totally manufactured!) i think its gonna be a big month for the bulls!

Wish you the best of luck!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #147
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:02am Oct 1, 2013 1:02am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} That's right.....so Abe san needs to stop acting like an idiot and tread very carefully because there are forces greater than him at work, and they can very easily de-rail his "3 arrows" and his "2% inflation within 2 years"..... HAHAHAHAHA
hahahhahaha........he can do if he "only" aim for the "limiting" effect of surging yen......heheheheh.....at the end...all depend on US & FED.....hahha
Bismillah
  • #148
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:07am Oct 1, 2013 1:07am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Well, im not a day trader anyway, so if i were trading the us and eu equity markets (which i am)... I would be accumulating for a swing upwards (which i also am) October is statistically a bullish month on high volume, we are at the precipice of high drama (which is totally manufactured!) i think its gonna be a big month for the bulls! Wish you the best of luck!
ok i will be watch DJIA & others US indexes very closely soon..hehe
Bismillah
  • #149
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:08am Oct 1, 2013 1:08am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} hahahhahaha........he can do if he "only" aim for the "limiting" effect of surging yen......heheheheh.....at the end...all depend on US & FED.....hahha
HAHAHA...which also depends on China and the EU....HAHAHAHAHAHA
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #150
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:13am Oct 1, 2013 1:13am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} HAHAHA...which also depends on China and the EU....HAHAHAHAHAHA
ohhh......absolutely.....i forget to include both of them..hahahha
Bismillah
  • #151
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:49pm Oct 1, 2013 3:49pm
Will the NFP come out friday or not because of the shutdown?
  • #152
  • Oct 1, 2013 7:30pm Oct 1, 2013 7:30pm
lets study the behavior of gold after shutdown...
actually gold is following USD....because USD strenghten gold down....
other thing.....

1..it pay back the move after "NO tapering" after previous fed meeting so from this point actually gold in equilibrium=neutral point.....

2.since market not fear on US...it make usd strenghten and more on risk on back as i comment before "market will green only if shutdown make no feaar on market"...

but u must remember that...... i think this is only game of speculator..they tend to "SELL SHORT THE GOLD" because QE3 will not be reduce in a short term or this year......then

1.market will fear again about US economy (QE actually good for stocks but the rise is only short term)....
2.they we speculate for more bullish on gold as safe haven.......
3.QE will devaluate the dollar.
only from my oppinion....dont follow me..hahahhaa

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldaftershudown.jpg Size: 213 KB
Bismillah
  • #153
  • Oct 1, 2013 7:33pm Oct 1, 2013 7:33pm
The 'fly in the ointment' will be if the shutdown causes a downgrade by Fitch and Moodies......then all bets are off.. HAHAHAHA
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #154
  • Oct 1, 2013 7:45pm Oct 1, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting realjumper
The 'fly in the ointment' will be if the shutdown causes a downgrade by Fitch and Moodies......then all bets are off.. HAHAHAHA
yes US rating at risk...and if that happen all will "OFF" and "RED"..hahahahhaha
Bismillah
  • #155
  • Oct 1, 2013 7:56pm Oct 1, 2013 7:56pm
TODAY lets digest ECB press conference very closely....IM expect ECB President Draghi to remain dovish.

Since recently he rise up the clue for another LTRO, and while we don't think the central bank is seriously considering another round of stimulus, the combination of LTRO talk, US fiscal troubles, and weaker Eurozone data will keep the long-term guidance intact.

Furthermore....the reason im expect draghi more dovish

1.yesterday German unemployment report surge...
2.Eurozone give us low CPI data make sense that european economy in delflation

so for me the posibility that will happen

1.ECB have a room to cut atleast 25bps which is surprise event if that happen
2.If he see the rate is low enough than with deflation and jobless rate rise they can stimulate economy back by introduce the LTRO 3......

so....overall dovish......standby to sell the euro....hahahha

But the important is Q&A...... sometimes every dovish statement can change to hawkish if the Q&A give us for that...hahaha

Attached Image
Bismillah
  • #156
  • Oct 2, 2013 3:23am Oct 2, 2013 3:23am
Non-Farm Payrolls this week cancelled.....
Bismillah
  • #157
  • Oct 2, 2013 4:11am Oct 2, 2013 4:11am
Quoting krunfx
Non-Farm Payrolls this week cancelled.....
I will miss watching the entertaining highlight of the month... hahahahaha
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #158
  • Oct 2, 2013 5:11am Oct 2, 2013 5:11am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I will miss watching the entertaining highlight of the month... hahahahaha

hahahhahaha.... or u miss to watch the behavior market especially YEN when debt ceiling would be hit soon?????hahahhaa
Bismillah
  • #159
  • Oct 2, 2013 5:42am Oct 2, 2013 5:42am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} hahahhahaha.... or u miss to watch the behavior market especially YEN when debt ceiling would be hit soon?????hahahhaa
hahahahaha... if the debt ceiling is hit, Abe san will be very, very sad...... he will need 4 arrows... hahahahaha
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #160
  • Oct 2, 2013 5:44am Oct 2, 2013 5:44am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} hahahahaha... if the debt ceiling is hit, Abe san will be very, very sad...... he will need 4 arrows... hahahahaha
no...he will let and agree with 70Y per dollar .....hahahaha
Bismillah
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