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Economic Analysis VS Market Action

  • #121
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:46pm Sep 25, 2013 11:46pm
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... or is it China again?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #122
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:47pm Sep 25, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} S&P (or Moody's... I don't remember which, but it was one of these two) made a statement earlier in the week that a raise in the US Debt ceiling would not have a ratings impact because the long term outlook is stable/positive One good thing about this administration is that they are cutting the deficit at a fast clip, which would mitigate any downside to the sovereign rating... or so it would seem...
it just from one credit rating agency perspective... we have 4 big agency include Chinese dagong....
Bismillah
  • #123
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:51pm Sep 25, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting krunfx
{quote} it just from one credit rating agency perspective... we have 4 big agency include Chinese dagong....

thats true...

however, the moves made by the ratings agencies are as political as they are economic... so we would have to wait and see at this point...

long term, unless they stop the printing presses in the western countries, everyone is doomed to hell,

but for as long as the music is playing...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #124
  • Sep 26, 2013 1:51am Sep 26, 2013 1:51am
this is one thing the FED is concern about...it is deflation...even job in good condition but because of deflation soon will make the jobless rate higher back!!!

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Bismillah
  • #125
  • Sep 26, 2013 2:53am Sep 26, 2013 2:53am
Waiting for Japanese pension panel report at 10:00 (GMT) /6pm malaysian timeamid calls for diversification into more risky assets.

watching usd/jpy behavior very closely!!!
Bismillah
  • #126
  • Sep 26, 2013 1:36pm Sep 26, 2013 1:36pm
Next week Friday BOJ meeting and NFP
Mail: holygrailea (AT) gmail ( DOT ) com
  • #127
  • Sep 26, 2013 10:30pm Sep 26, 2013 10:30pm
Quoting krunfx
watching usd/jpy behavior very closely!!!
You sound like Noda HAHAHAHA
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #128
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:03am Sep 27, 2013 8:03am
USDCHF finally broke...Government shutdown?;-)
  • #129
  • Sep 27, 2013 9:49am Sep 27, 2013 9:49am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} You sound like Noda HAHAHAHA

hahahaha,,,,....,i really miss him...i really miss his market verbal..hahah
Bismillah
  • #130
  • Sep 28, 2013 6:31pm Sep 28, 2013 6:31pm
We have big event next week...
The best pair to trade for volatility is eur/jpy....

1.we have US debt ceiling & govn shutdown issue on 1oct

2.also japan tax issue on 1oct...

3.And dont forget we also have a speculation Italian government on the brink of collapse....

So.....

1.if US increase debt ceiling that is highly likely then market will risk averse as fear on US budget crisis.....but if not but unlikely market will on risk appetite as confident in US budget surplus....but all will be impa on delay of FED tapering soon...

2.japan tax issue seem to be price in last week..but any surprise implementation will awake of volatility in jpy....

3.italian collapse will make eur drop with increasing LTRO by ECB since if italian spoil ....sovereign crisis will spread again.....then ECB must intervene back!!!!

Krunfx...
Bismillah
  • #131
  • Sep 28, 2013 10:12pm Sep 28, 2013 10:12pm
As i said before this speculation italian politic crisis...

Italian government breaks up after Berlusconi pulls out ministers..

Euro posible to tumble more on market open....watching......
Bismillah
  • #132
  • Sep 29, 2013 12:31am Sep 29, 2013 12:31am
Quoting krunfx
We have big event next week... The best pair to trade for volatility is eur/jpy.... 1.we have US debt ceiling & govn shutdown issue on 1oct 2.also japan tax issue on 1oct... 3.And dont forget we also have a speculation Italian government on the brink of collapse.... So..... 1.if US increase debt ceiling that is highly likely then market will risk averse as fear on US budget crisis.....but if not but unlikely market will on risk appetite as confident in US budget surplus....but all will be impa on delay of FED tapering soon... 2.japan tax issue seem...
Yo Bro,

Thanks for such simple fundamental analysis. I really appreciate that & looking forward to learn more on fundamentals. This thread is also working as news feed for me, keep it up
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #133
  • Sep 29, 2013 1:14pm Sep 29, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting krunfx
As i said before this speculation italian politic crisis... Italian government breaks up after Berlusconi pulls out ministers.. Euro posible to tumble more on market open....watching......
Krunfx please keep it up , Me learning more from U . Thanks ,
  • #134
  • Sep 29, 2013 7:42pm Sep 29, 2013 7:42pm
GBP is strong - why? Is it because America and Europe have problems?
  • #135
  • Sep 29, 2013 7:50pm Sep 29, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting pbylina
GBP is strong - why? Is it because America and Europe have problems?
Last week comment by BOE carney stil strenghten the pound
Bismillah
  • #136
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:16pm Sep 30, 2013 7:16pm
Japan Unemployment Rate Jumps To 4.1%...... since ABE & BOJ want inflation with their ABENOMICS policy then here we are...the most problem for now =STAGFLATION!!!! im so sure BOJ will not like this ......huhu
Bismillah
  • #137
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:57pm Sep 30, 2013 9:57pm
BUDGET OFFICE TO INSTRUCT AGENCIES ON SHUTDOWN BY 11:30 P.M.???

just speculation or real??huhu
Bismillah
  • #138
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:10am Oct 1, 2013 12:10am
Quoting krunfx
BUDGET OFFICE TO INSTRUCT AGENCIES ON SHUTDOWN BY 11:30 P.M.??? just speculation or real??huhu
If it is real , Dollar will rise strongly as save haven ????
  • #139
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:19am Oct 1, 2013 12:19am
Quoting terminator12
{quote} If it is real , Dollar will rise strongly as save haven ????
no.......usd will not attractive......yen more attractive
Bismillah
  • #140
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:22am Oct 1, 2013 12:22am
as i said before US shutdown actually will make market more fear.....

1.soon stocks would tumble.....
2.carry trade will unwind.....investor will buy back yen and chf .....
3.US credit rating AAA will be at risk......make more fear and risk averse
4.Debt ceiling increase posible...market will fear again....
5.Posible deflation more and jobless rate surge.....
5.QE tapering maybe will not happen anytime soon..

hahaha...krunfx
Bismillah
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