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No more BS - What have you learned?

  • #761
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:25pm Sep 30, 2013 3:25pm
I've learned that making any kind of significant money in the long term trading Forex is a pipe dream for most of us. I've learned that the countless hours and sleepless nights may in the end be a complete waste of time.

Careers put on hold, savings depleted, family and friends alienated, health deteriorated. These are just some of the few things Forex offers along with, of course, the low probability of actually succeeding.

I've learned that even though in the end 95% will fail, they will keep flocking to the charts with more money they scraped together. I've learned that the markets are unforgiving and any system can be chewed up and spit out if given enough time.

I don't doubt that there are success stories. I don't doubt that some of you have made your thousands over the course of a few years.

I do believe luck and destiny play a huge role in trading success, and any other success you may have in your life. Maybe some have found that mentor, that thread or that system and all the stars aligned.

I started trading Forex so that I could help a few people I consider family that were in need. I desperately wanted to succeed and still do.

But in the end, it could all just be a pipe dream.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #762
  • Edited 4:12pm Sep 30, 2013 3:49pm | Edited 4:12pm
I have learned the following;

The big orders are on or around the opening price of certain candles.

This website has a lot of arguementative idiots, mad and angry because they're losers at FX and in life.

Foreplay is key.

Patience and an understanding of price action = profit. It really is that simple.

Indicators indicate absolutely nothing.

Risking 2% or 50%. The latter means you have balls the size of melons.
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  • #763
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:55pm Sep 30, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting J_Harrison
{quote} trader can forget about order flow at spot markets..
I certainly hope so too.
There is nothing to see here.
  • #764
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:56pm Sep 30, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting ForexFury
I've learned that making any kind of significant money in the long term trading Forex is a pipe dream for most of us. I've learned that the countless hours and sleepless nights may in the end be a complete waste of time. Careers put on hold, savings depleted, family and friends alienated, health deteriorated. These are just some of the few things Forex offers along with, of course, the low probability of actually succeeding. I've learned that even though in the end 95% will fail, they will keep flocking to the charts with more money they scraped...
On the spot. Great post.
  • #765
  • Edited 4:19pm Sep 30, 2013 3:57pm | Edited 4:19pm
Quoting bootsyjam
Could you provide me with the data/where you heard about that for that correlation? Considering that supposedly 95% of people lose money trading fx, and they're going to be going through these same retail brokers and contributing to their volume figures, I don't see how the volume data can be an accurate representation of banking/hedge fund/sovereign wealth fund buying and selling? Are they all using Oanda?
It's documented. You can google it.
  • #766
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:02pm Sep 30, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting bootsyjam
{quote} I completely agree. This is why these threads are so dangerous because they're full of people making pronouncements with such conviction when they're actually dead wrong. 95% correlation between spot fx retail broker volume feeds and a major international clearer-really?! So all those small time traders are trading at exactly the same moment, and with correlated volume (i.e. not the same amount, but the same amount of buy/sell inbalance to drive prices) as the big boys? So Oanda/Alpari/IG/whoever have similar volume readings and will therefore...
I totally agree there is no order flow in the spot market.
To look for what the big boys look for is what really works, support and resistance and all that.
Just keep on doing just that, indeed that is the way.
  • #767
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:51pm Sep 30, 2013 4:51pm
Simple is the key in Forex. Simple strategy. Simple method.
Don't expect anything to happen in the market. Key word EXPECT. Anything can happen.
That is why tight stops are important.
Why do you even wanna trade more that one pair. It is the movement along the vertical axis on a chart that is important.
The the difference between point A and B... is what we need. One pair can give you that. Why spread your capital in across so many pairs when you know the market behavior from pair to pair is so sporadic. Simply trade one pair. It is better that trading two and three and four pairs. That is keeping simple.
Reduce the frequency of your trades. You can do this two ways. Use larger EMA's on smaller time frame ( over 1000) or you trade higher time frames.
Take profit at significant intervals. There is not wrong way or right way in the markets. The only way is what works... for you I should add.
S/R is not accurate all the time. Neither is fib, or MACD, or RSI, etc. You cannot rely on those to make good trades. The only system that is credible is a good mental system that you develop. Those tools may help you in this regard but they do not work by themselves.
Trading requires thinking in probability. If you do not get probability. here is an example. Put a 1000 ema on your chart. Count the amount of time price crosses it. If price goes to that ema and does not cross in 10 attempts. I would comfortable say everyone would be rich on earth. Because all you would have to do is buy or sell and thus get rich. Don't expect anything. Just be rigid with your rules. More analysis does not make you successful. In fact... less does.
  • #768
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:16pm Sep 30, 2013 7:16pm
I here the same shit everywhere. Seems like everyone says the same thing just worded different lol and the worst part is it doesnt really help much because its so broad.

You need money in forex.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #769
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:20pm Sep 30, 2013 7:20pm
Pave your own road. It's the only way.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #770
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:54pm Sep 30, 2013 7:54pm
You really don't need a lot of money to effectively trade forex, just the ability to trade very small lots. If you can find an edge, add to your balance incrementally as you hit targets. You know what you can afford, don't add to your account until you hit a preset percentage of gains. You can start with a dollar and trade nano lots, add $100 every time you increase your account by 5%. The first target would be $1.05 (hey it's still 5%). If you can consistently do this you can turn that $1.00 in to a million.
  • #771
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:25pm Sep 30, 2013 8:25pm
Quoting ForexFury
I've learned that making any kind of significant money in the long term trading Forex is a pipe dream for most of us. I've learned that the countless hours and sleepless nights may in the end be a complete waste of time. Careers put on hold, savings depleted, family and friends alienated, health deteriorated. These are just some of the few things Forex offers along with, of course, the low probability of actually succeeding. I've learned that even though in the end 95% will fail, they will keep flocking to the charts with more money they scraped...
Hear him, hear him! Very wise words indeed.
  • #772
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:50pm Sep 30, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting ForexFury
I've learned that making any kind of significant money in the long term trading Forex is a pipe dream for most of us. I've learned that the countless hours and sleepless nights may in the end be a complete waste of time. Careers put on hold, savings depleted, family and friends alienated, health deteriorated. These are just some of the few things Forex offers along with, of course, the low probability of actually succeeding. I've learned that even though in the end 95% will fail, they will keep flocking to the charts with more money they scraped...
You are right.
The best sure way to make money in Forex is owning a % in a retail brokerage firm with a dealing desk. You take the opposing side of 99% of your customers trades and watch your earnings increase year after year.
If you cant buy a firm, FXCM is a listed company https://www.google.ca/finance?q=NYSE:FXCM think if you invested in this at its IPO, you'd be up a nice lot; I heard they may start paying a nice dividend soon. I truly believe that this is the only way for some to make money in the Forex market, by investing in a broker.

You will not make a living trading Forex with a retail broker, especially if it is the only financial instrument you trade. If it represents a smaller percentage of your overall investment portfolio then it has the potential be profitable especially if you are using it to hedge against currency swings in your stock holdings.
The best advice I have ever been given in FX is this, "Don't over trade."
Easier said then done.
  • #773
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:02pm Sep 30, 2013 9:02pm
Quoting sloanman
You really don't need a lot of money to effectively trade forex, just the ability to trade very small lots. If you can find an edge, add to your balance incrementally as you hit targets. You know what you can afford, don't add to your account until you hit a preset percentage of gains. You can start with a dollar and trade nano lots, add $100 every time you increase your account by 5%. The first target would be $1.05 (hey it's still 5%). If you can consistently do this you can turn that $1.00 in to a million.

oh lets all just be millionaires now! good luck with that! end of the day depends what your goals are for how much money you need
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #774
  • Edited 9:35pm Sep 30, 2013 9:08pm | Edited 9:35pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} oh lets all just be millionaires now! good luck with that!

Yeah cause I'm an idiot.

My point was Forex has the least restrictive barriers to entry of any market. If you have an edge and enough time you actually can do it. I am talking ten to fifteen years with the example I gave.

I have seen people come and go on this forum for five years now. I will be here when you are gone.

Edited:
I should say God Willing I will be here....sorry
  • #775
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:07pm Sep 30, 2013 10:07pm
I've learned that people tend to adopt the philosophies that best suit their own interests
Time hides Nothing
  • #776
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:25am Oct 1, 2013 3:25am
1) the only thing you can predict and manage is what you would lose (risk)
2) going counter-trend will burn you 9 out of 10 times, but can also be profitable if you know what you're doing...
3) being patient =/= seeing a trade somewhere where there is none because you've sat there patiently waiting for 12 hours.
3') don't overtrade, take breaks and plan which sessions you would trade....
4) never, ever look at how well others are doing - it can only frustrate you and it's human nature and basic instinct to conceal our failures and only show how good we are...
5) trading the higher tfs does not necessarily mean you'll do better as a rookie...
6) picking a good broker is pretty darn important

That's what I've gotten from my short career thus far...
  • #777
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:13am Oct 2, 2013 12:13am
You have to know what kind of person you are, because that will be reflected in your trading - it should be the dominant factor when picking a system to use. Because you have to trust your system 100% otherwise you will fail (meaning you have to trust yourself). This will also decide what risks AND profits you can handle. And because of this, you will have to come up with a system of your own, it doesn't have to be new - it just needs to be tailored to your personality.

This is me:
I can only take small losses. I don't want to take to many trades each day, so making 2-3 trades per day seems fine by me, I have the patience to wait for these setups. I don't want small profits from each trade, so I'm willing to let the trades run - I want to ride the trends. I don't mind having a terrible winratio as long as the rr-ratio is keeping me on the profitable track. I hate when the market moves without me - I want to be in the market when a move happens because. I want to be a winner in the long run and I'm not looking for fast profits.

This has lead me to this base:
- Trade small timeframes for smaller stoplosses
- Trendfollowing (not for entries, but for profits)
- I take every signal no matter what the dominant trend is (never know when a new trend starts)

As you can see, my plan is simple because I have identified what kind of person I am. With this as a base, I can build a system that I can use.

A few other things to be considered:
- Pay as little spread as possible - this will have a huge impact on overall performance
- You don't need more than one pair - pick one that suits your system (suits you)
  • #778
  • Edited 1:40am Oct 2, 2013 1:07am | Edited 1:40am
Quoting NowAndLater
You have to know what kind of person you are, because that will be reflected in your trading - it should be the dominant factor when picking a system to use. Because you have to trust your system 100% otherwise you will fail (meaning you have to trust yourself). This will also decide what risks AND profits you can handle. And because of this, you will have to come up with a system of your own, it doesn't have to be new - it just needs to be tailored to your personality. This is me: I can only take small losses. I don't want to take to many trades...
I think that's a good post NowAndLater..


Newer traders may not fully be able to appreciate the depth of it. I used to block out when I read things like this. A thread comes to mind by the Darkstar

Why do you Trade? it was called.

When I first stumbled on this thread years ago I thought to myself.. Duh.. Money! But only more recently I realized what a deep and meaningful question it actually was. For starters if you look at anyone successful in their en devours, whether it be musicians, sportsman, artists, writers, traders! And I'm talking about the ones who completely out shone the rest. They were never in it for the money, the money followed them as they chased their passion, which was the art itself.. Not the money. If I remember correctly Darkstar had a keen interest in economics and the economy long before he even placed a trade. I think for a lot of us it is the other way around. Just using DS as an example here but the same rings true for all.

But yes, trading is the most painful way to get to know yourself. If you don't know yet, you soon will.... I can vouch for that.
Time hides Nothing
  • #779
  • Oct 2, 2013 1:23am Oct 2, 2013 1:23am
Quoting sloanman
My point was Forex has the least restrictive barriers to entry of any market.
And there's a reason for that...
  • #780
  • Oct 2, 2013 2:34am Oct 2, 2013 2:34am
Quoting NowAndLater
You don't need more than one pair - pick one that suits your system (suits you)
Amongst all of these posts there are golden nuggets of info and that's one of them.
Here's a hint to everyone-EURUSD is the most liquid pair. It also has very tight spreads. It's all you need.

Think I saw a post somewhere by someone claiming to make 10% per week and he/she was being rubbished-unfair in my view.
If you have a strict system, you take only 1-2 trades per day and risk 1% of your bank (so on average let's say 8 per week) - hold your winners for 2 or 3:1 risk reward (let's average it at 2.5:1) and you have a 50% success rate with your trades. 4 losers = -4/4%, 4 winners = +10%. So you're up 6%. 10% is easily achievable - if you improve your win ration slightly to 5 winners/3 losers, or take 3:1 instead of 2.5:1 RR.

And if you don't? Then you're still doing well. Discipline is the most important thing. How many people here could sit in front of a chart and make just 1 trade a day? Or would start flicking around different pairs etcetc? You don't need lots of pairs to make money, you really don't.
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