Technical Analysis Fallacy

my bad!!yes it was eur/jpy. thank you indianguyinny24!!!

50 pips, nice! any attack or just scout?

here's my result from today so far.. why do I feel like I'm scalping...

and currently caught in a usdjpy trade. man, I feel like an Okefenokee wild pig

My day in the markets. Got out for better than BE after all was said and done. Terrible timing skills. Rescue 2 completely speculative based on previous s/r... But repeated real time decision making is really what I feel might make a difference long term.

dropkick-cat, I see your entries spanned a time of 9 hours. can I ask you how you spent them? i mean, I doubt all 9 hours were spent looking at the screen, but fti talks about babysitting trades..

I just want to get a better idea of how to schedule my own time. because I think i'm going to have to overnight this usdjpy trade...

one thing that's really killing me here is... I can't find anything on entry. i get little tidbits on how Not to enter, and of course there's 3 kingdoms relationship.. or is it all in AOW?

I'm hoping that, well... fti, can you shed a little light here... ? I know what to bring to the table, pink undies and all . but what is it that I still need? if it's a bread and butter issue, then forget I asked

i'm starting to get the feeling that, (in a ranging market), no matter which direction I put in an order... I can make a little scalp money, as long as I exit in time

no more honey?

Here is a movie I watched over the weekend, maybe you will like it...

http://www.primewire.ag/watch-2118363-The-Butler

The Butler: As Cecil Gaines serves eight presidents during his tenure as a butler at the White House, the civil rights movement, Vietnam, and other major events affect this man's life, family, and American society.

I recommend the nowvideo.eu link.

no time watch movie.
watching us/yen.

regards

I have multiple screens, so when a trade is on, it's always on display. Where I've written "ZZZZZZZ" on the chart, it doesn't mean I was actually sleeping it is meant to indicate my awareness of the situation and activity level derived thereof what with price slowing down like that...

How you go about it, well I guess you know your lifestyle/commitments etc. best, so you'll find a way.

whoa. me too


fti, you can watch any movie you prefer through that link (when you have time of course). newer movies are lower quality though, and some links are faster than others.


I was wondering about those "zzzz"s!

thanks


- don't worry about the graph, guys, I got this!

really, that's a hard thing to daytrade...

my .02$

the 50 dma is at .455 and the 76.4 of the major move down from 1.54 to whatever was the min at .4548 (I know they're just lines, but how was that with avoiding fortified cities? ); buyin' for a breakout there and actually timing it right on that pair... Anyway, never managed to trade eur/aud on the short run; long run, sure, perfectly fine, heck, managed even 1.5k+ pips in some moves, but short term that thing has it's own laws(gotta watch both e/u and a/u and manage the spread and... and well, I also have to work in the mean time).

I always love when I start a position in one direction and spend the next week being open mostly against my initial position

well, guess the end result is all that matters...

pity I was cheap and waited for .45 or so, than had to work, didn't watch, and look where it's now... And I'm long with one lousy scout... Oh, well, I suppose 250 pips passes for great volatility nowdays...

may be u like to reconsider ur leverage.from ur comment I feel like ur using high leverage.by the way I am in gepppy trade for last 3 weeks and I sleep very soundly and also I don't stare at the screen as well. reducing ur leverage will prolong ur life as a trader,dont worry about money,it will come if u learn to wait.

thank you drzakir

yes, I am using full leverage, but it's a small account... which is why you are right, I should use less leverage.

I have learned through this, that randomly skewing while thinking that the market will go my way is dangerous. Let's hope that lesson sticks!

However, by splitting up what used to be 1 big position, into smaller orders, at different prices (during rescue), incurs an overall smaller loss for me.

You don't babysit your trades? (+some people don't like swap fees). Well, in any case I like long term trades too but I've been really concentrating lately on what fti shares here. I don't think I can get a feel for the long term by looking at the 5 min charts!

it doesn't matter whether it is a small or big account.its all about ur responses and habits.good luck

yeah, I'm just trying to turn this small account into a big one

but... i should go slow and steady instead...

thank you, drzakir

the danger with high leverage imho is that'll you'll get used to it. And.. 99.9% of the time, you'll get away with it.

but, come that .1% time, you'll be at lost. Take a look at the attached pic. - measly news(the Italian election - all in all, irrelevant); everyone wanted to go long to catch the trend(look at the price now - rightfully so). Dropped... 600+ pips in 4 hours? What do you do? Use a stop... ok, great, pity that the last 250 pips were 2 spikes of 100+ pips in less than 5 mins(I wasn't on, don't remember exactly the action on 1 min. chart). Bet you'll be filled 100 pips off the mark(do you think the broker is your buddy?); at 10:1 leverage... you're kinda out, aren't you?

all that while buying actually made perfect sense.

and, also, you'll trade poorly - you'll get used to sloppy entrances, sell because "I'll rescue it anyway...", won't wait for price to come to you but rush headlong, sweat alot, than, when prices goes your way, close at be or with a measly profit. Eventually open a long out of spite for good measure.

I'm pretty leveraged(pretty often over 5, but at least I look at the hour when I go with such leverages - and I play it - 3 pips up, reload, another 2 pips, etc.) - what I've noticed(fti mentioned in this thread too, if I remember right): leave at least 5-6 bars between entries(or... horror, use a stop if you enter very aggressively) - not counting the scalping the range very small positions.

Also, "zzzz" doesn't work; that's where everyone adjusts before the next move. You "zzz", everyone else adjusts and makes money. Do you think anyone is a medium and knows where it'll go afterwards? Some want up, some want down; everyone uses the consolidation to reaverage their positions the best they can. Longs will have it as close as the min. they can, shorts will have it as high as the max. they can. You... not so much.
Yes, it dropped only 10 more pips and you think that it'll go down the toilet (let's face it, there isn't much below). But that's 10 pips you made - you closed a position higher, you can reopen lower; don't be greedy - reopen, see how it fares, etc. Instead? You... "hope&pray"? That never made much money.

"50 will give way, it'll drop much lower and I'll lose even more" - bs. Most of the time, levels hold. And there's plenty of time to figure if they won't.And if you hate that position so much, close it all together, go do something else. If you keep it, be glad for those 10 pips and trade the consolidation. You're happy that you've saved one position because now it'll go down the drain and you'd have lost more? Well... if it goes down the drain, why are you still long? If it doesn't... it's a buyin' opportunity, right?

I'm trading this lousy 10 pips range in cable for 5h. I pay 2 pips in, 2 pips out. Damn if I like - there isn't much left for me after payin' the piper, is it? Luckly I have priority on orders placed on the server before banks(but... at this hour, there aren't many orders placed to begin with, so I'm paying the spread most of the time).But... that's the game. It'll move sooner or later; I'll either make money or lose 0. Because I've rubbed this crappy 10 pips range for 5h.

p.s. - What if they'll hunt stops before Tokio open? Ugh... sucks to be me, wasted alot of time winning almost nothing, but that's life in tight ranges...

pps. - a1 - it moves 40 pips on a non news(really, 20 Italian senators leave PDL and you want that to be worth what? more than 50 pips? and they didn't even leave PDL, there was a "rumor" that they'll do) and you rush to hold the bag. You figure you're wrong, exit s3 and s4, but keep a1 because of... hope. Did you read the headline you were trading?
rescue 2 - a non news(see above) is... faded and you autobuy(was it a limit order?). Crashes below sma 200, crashes below sma 100, retests and is rejected badly, you sit on it. At least drop it at 75 or so after it's rejected so badly at sma100? Don't catch the knife?
rescue 3 - makes perfect sense.
retest at 75 - tired and stressed, you pass on it; cheap reload, but out of stress, don't want to attack anymore.
exit a1 - you're tired and can't take the heat anymore(right when it was turning your way).

Don't get me wrong - what you're doing just reminds of me some time ago And a good part of it is because of overleverage; otherwise, you wouldn't be stressed. The direction is correct, it goes your way, the h4 sma20 never gave way, life's good, etc. You'd be long and in the money.

you have about the worst timing of trades i ever seen.
but you made some pips.
i hope you will improve. No one can survive long term timing like this.


regards

fti, had you been around when white house ordered government to shut down 17 years ago??
what will the effect be on markets and on our lives when u.s goverrnment goes insolvent?
will they go to devaluation ?
Will the u.s go for war to ease the situation?

Thanks all for commenting, certainly a lot of room for improvement

For today I am done with trading and for the first time since starting to explore fti's MO some weeks ago I did not need a rescue on an attack. Not that anecdotal evidence means anything. And that's the hard thing. Were my decisions today better than yesterday? I have no clue. Less time, less exposure in the markets = better decisions? Is it viable to apply such thinking to each trading day?

dkc

another trick I've learnt(sure, nothing is set in stone).

Big announcement, right? Read the announcement, think what changed, etc. You slept on it, so you're 2nd wave.

1st - where are the orders? Well, .435 is twice very important resistance(weekly, double top, triple top if you take in acct. a zone between .425 and .435) now support, .455 is important resistance.

2nd - evaluate ~ how much that thing would really be worth. Obviously, take in consideration market positioning, what price did before the announcement(tried to trip stops - someone was really hard pressed to get rid of a long, right?).

Did rba not cut when everyone expected to cut? No.
Did rba increase base rate by... 25 or 50 bp? No.

all in all, it just said that they'll crash aud abit less. Good for aud, but not something where you want to get in at any cost. Let's say 100 - 150 pips, give or take; I'd say less than 100 pips(70-80?) if market wouldn't be as short as it is right now.

It already dropped 100 pips. You're on the 2nd wave. I'd say... 70-80% of the time, after 2nd wave starts, you'll get a retest of the level before it drops; everyone will try to push out the weak new comers - just some easy money, nothing personal.

Yes, your brain will tell you "go now, go now, or you'll miss the move"; heck, sometimes you'll even miss the move, but that's life. If you go with the breakout, don't add immediately after the breakout. Again... it's a very high probability you'll get a retest and than drop.

You're not trading a fresh new headline; it's old news - 3h passed, everyone and their dog read it(and again, it wasn't that much in it either). If you want to attack, add after the retest, not before. It'll be way less stressful(all you'll have to do is wait those 30mins - 2h for the retest, instead of being already in and sweating that, on average, position is below the market).

You add less than 30 mins. before the initial position; that's impatience("it'll run without me") and greed("I want more; I want more now!"). Really... what do you expect? Drop 200 pips straight because they didn't cut when most people expected no cut to begin with?

Yes, times passes slowly when you're in the market; you either want everything to end in 1h or you start losing focus. But... it moves in her way, not yours.

Regarding time, what I've noticed:

you can be do either like fti, but that takes: doing only that, years of experience and a big enough acct. to trade all the small consolidations without overleveraging yourself. And very good nerves.
if you don't actively stare at the screen(and understand what happens - otherwise, you're just staring... better watch a movie), set some alerts when price reaches a certain point and manage the trade less - look at it every 15 mins. or so, or it'll just wreck your nerves and make you do stupid things. If it reaches x, take profit, if it reaches y start rescue, attack when makes sense both hourly(london post lunch break for stop hunting, ny open, london fixing, etc.) and bar combination wise. Imho, until you have the experience and the nerves to understand time(which flows... so weirdly when you're in the market), there are good chances you'll screw it up more than do any good.

sure, watch a newsflow all the time...

also, have common sense goals(I've attached a pic.):

1. I know that I must wait till it blows over 11(patience).
2. I know that it's fixing, so fast action(less patience required - sure, you can say I'm cheating, but hey... I'm just protecting my nerves);
3. I know it's the last wave; I'm playing with profits. I know that both e/u and g/u are at support, I'm playing a retest.
4. I know I'm counter trend - I wanted 7 pips out of it, not to get rich(just the retest to for suckers who want to go short).
5. last, but not least - I have only momentum, it's countertrade, etc, so... 0.25 leverage. Won't get rich out of it, but... you never get rich out of one trade. Plus, really... you won't make billions in 10 min. trades. And no, if it'll reach 100 pips lower in the next hour I won't think "boy, what I've missed". Didn't miss anything - got what I want, knew I have to work, so no time for it, hence no opportunity missed.