Joined Jul 2004
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Status: AccurateForexTrader
|267 Posts
mikeh3855,
Thanks for sharing that. I am assuming that is just by following the basic rules and trading from SAR to SAR without any discretion. Not that many trades so easy to manage around a normal job or life. This is only on one pair and producing a profit of +1,678 pips in 9 months isn't too shabby at all. Some people would say it's not enough, but I would disagree. Good job on the backtest. It is appreciated. Cheers. Jim
Here's a manual back test of the system on the GBPUSD 4 HR for 2013. {file}
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Hi
Thank you for the back test; I see that you have consecutive buys and sells on file, should we not have alternate buy and sell entries as this is a SAR method?
On methods like this, constant lot sizes are used, 0.01, 0.1, 1 etc dependent on the account balance and the stop losses differ from entry to entry, so it is only possible to talk of average pips risked and average pips won, absolute R is not viable only average R.
For instance in the above work sheet 114.50 is risked on average to gain 263.78 on average; it can be average pips or average dollars, all the same due to constant lot sizing.
Right. I understand the pips gained is not always reflective of your absolute profit or loss. However, with Buff's rules as stated, you know your risk on each trade. If you risk a constant percentage knowing your risk on each trade, the posted results can give you a good idea of profitability. The spreadsheet is nice in that it shows at a glance your risk to reward ratio, which is an edge in itself, and you can get an "idea" of potential drawdown specific to each pair.
During back testing the trailing stop was only moved when the rules would allow, meaning the stop was not moved until all four working lines were in play. I did move it as soon as possible and took the stop and reverse at that point, taking small profits sometimes when available. Yes, it was as mechanical as I could make it.
Please ignore the Buy or Sell labels on the spreadsheet. The labels are there but are not pertinent to this method.
On methods like this, constant lot sizes are used, 0.01, 0.1, 1 etc dependent on the account balance and the stop losses differ from entry to entry, so it is only possible to talk of average pips risked and average pips won, absolute R is not viable only average R. For instance in the above work sheet 114.50 is risked on average to gain 263.78 on average; it can be average pips or average dollars, all the same due to constant lot sizing.
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Not going to get in to an argument about this, but you are wrong.
114.50 is NOT the average risk. It is the average LOSS.
Each one of those deals might have had 300 pip risk for all we know.
Thanks for the response Mike. I'm not being awkward and I'm glad you took my comments in the spirit they were intended. I.E. in the spirit of sharing and helping.
I always piss people off on FF when I go on about this, but I am right.
I just wish people would take it on board - it is VERY important, and for fear of de-railing Jim's thread, I won't mention it again.
Well if you don't want to talk about pips then what you want to talk about is percentage I think. And you are right because percent gained vs percent risked is really the crux. A large pip gain on that spread sheet may represent a small percentage gain in trading because of how far the sop loss may have been on that particular trade to howard's point. However, any one of those large pip gains could also represent a trade using a higher lot size because of a closer stop loss. The result could be a relatively higher percentage gain to your account. Counting pips should work out about the same as long as the percentage risked stays the same.
Posting in order to impose your views on others is not a good start. You may remember realjumper's reaction to one of your posts... before he showed you the door.
{quote} Not going to get in to an argument about this, but you are wrong. 114.50 is NOT the average risk. It is the average LOSS. Each one of those deals might have had 300 pip risk for all we know. Thanks for the response Mike. I'm not being awkward and I'm glad you took my comments in the spirit they were intended. I.E. in the spirit of sharing and helping. I always piss people off on FF when I go on about this, but I am right. I just wish people would take it on board - it is VERY important, and for fear of de-railing Jim's thread, I won't mention...
{quote} Posting in order to impose your views on others is not a good start. You may remember realjumper's reaction to one of your posts... before he showed you the door.
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Who cares about realjumper reaction here. This is not the genesis thread where we kiss his bottom.
Here's a shot of this live trade progressing. {image}
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Mike...it looks like your trade is progressing well. Nicely done! I've been testing this with everything I can throw at it and it continues to produce well. I've even taken to using it on a 1 min chart scalping the DOW on emini futures.
According to my research trades on the 4 hr chart usually go for an avg of 27 days and tend to produce an avg win of about 300 pips. (For those of you who don't like to think in pips think in the distance that captures.)
Congratulations again and keep up the good displine on your trades.
I am also short on the GBPUSD within 3 pips of your trade. Nice going.
This method is very easy on the nerves. There is plenty of time to set stop orders. Sleeping between a couple of candle closes makes very little difference as far as I can see. I found positive results on back tests so far with the GBPUSD, GBPAUD. EURUSD is probably also positive but obviously correlates heavily with Cable.
Thanks again Jim, for this easy going method. Every trend is caught and if losers can be cut short effectively well then.....
My first trade on GJ closed at BE+3 (the green line @158.692 is my original entry).
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I have yet to decide the way to trade the system. Jim said we can make it as mechanical or as discretional as we like, and it looks like it is an important choice to make with respect to potential results. Being too aggressive at my first attempt on GJ produced only BE+3, whereas sticking to the mechanical rules would have caught me in the mid week's chop with unnecessary reversals. Looking back at this week's PA (GJ), the best result would be when not moving the SAR at all. That's hindsight, of course. Food for thought too.
{quote} Who cares about realjumper reaction here. This is not the genesis thread where we kiss his bottom.
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If kissing RJ's bottom is the only experience you gained from your limited participation in the Genesis thread, then I hope it was pleasurable enough for you.
{quote} I have yet to decide the way to trade the system. Jim said we can make it as mechanical or as discretional as we like, and it looks like it is an important choice to make with respect to potential results. Being too aggressive at my first attempt on GJ produced only BE+3, whereas sticking to the mechanical rules would have caught me in the mid week's chop with unnecessary reversals. Looking back at this week's PA (GJ), the best result would be when not moving the SAR at all. That's hindsight, of course. Food for thought too. {image}
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Could you please explain how you come to your "original Entry" as I am unable to duplicate your Entry.
At present I would have a short Entry at about 157.50 and stop at 158.84. I did not take this trade as it was not very clear to me.
Thanks for your participation.
