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The Monthly Trade

  • #41
  • Sep 28, 2013 9:33am Sep 28, 2013 9:33am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} Very, sir Veeeery lol joking ... So, what are your suggestions on the plan

Your plan is based on making one trade per month, winning that trade and then calculating, in advance, your yearly return. I have no idea what your trade criteria would be, but one trade a month just won't cut it. You don't even know how to trade, (btw, Van Tharp always said that doctors and lawyers made the worst traders he had ever seen, no offense) and you think you can place 12 trades and come out winning? Come on, this is dreaming, nothing more.

As Jen mentioned, doubling up is not going to work for if you lose 4 trades in a row - the time frame has nothing to do with this - which is not hard to do, then you've damaged your account to the point that you won't recover from it, mainly due to the emotional blow of doing so.
  • #42
  • Sep 28, 2013 9:37am Sep 28, 2013 9:37am
Quoting jen101
Hello Dr Ezz I don't normally look in trading journals, so this is the first time I've seen your thread. Yes, around 8% a month is very do-able, I think. Now you probably sussed on that I'm not one for over analysing things (hurts my head too much ) but if I was just to select just 1 trade a month it would have to be on the weekly chart, but perhaps expecting just 1 trade to achieve over 8% is a tad ambitious? How about stretching it to 2 or 3 trades? {quote} Isn't that applying martingale to your MM? What if you lost 2 months in a row? What...
Already divided to many trades. Check post 37 ... I'll see about the 2nd trade thing thx for looking into the thread and the suggestions
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  • #43
  • Sep 28, 2013 9:43am Sep 28, 2013 9:43am
Quoting Dopey
{quote} Your plan is based on making one trade per month, winning that trade and then calculating, in advance, your yearly return. I have no idea what your trade criteria would be, but one trade a month just won't cut it. You don't even know how to trade, (btw, Van Tharp always said that doctors and lawyers made the worst traders he had ever seen, no offense) and you think you can place 12 trades and come out winning? Come on, this is dreaming, nothing more. As Jen mentioned, doubling up is not going to work for if you lose 4 trades in a row - the...
I agree with Jen's idea about dividing it to many trades. And already mentioned that earlier post #37. If I'm not mistaken I think Al Brooks is a doctor ( I study his course nowadays so I know ) ... and even if most don't do it then I'm an exception .. Joking ... thx for crossing by
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  • #44
  • Sep 28, 2013 10:01am Sep 28, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} I agree with Jen's idea about dividing it to many trades. And already mentioned that earlier post #37. If I'm not mistaken I think Al Brooks is a doctor ( I study his course nowadays so I know ) ... and even if most don't do it then I'm an exception .. Joking ... thx for crossing by
Yes, you shouldn't be putting all your eggs into 1 basket .
  • #45
  • Sep 28, 2013 11:54am Sep 28, 2013 11:54am
Starting at $20,000, after 1 loss at 8.3% ($1660) your balance would be $18,340.
Doubling your position, you aim for a profit of $3320 which is 16.6% of your original balance, but 18.1% of your new balance.
Loss no. 2, your account is down to $15,020.
Doubling your position again you are aiming for a profit of $6640 which is 33.2% of your original balance, but 44.2% of your new balance.
After 3 losses in a row, you would have lost $11,620 and you have $9,380 left.

So to recover after 3 losses in a row you have to achieve over 100%. You don't have enough left to carry on doubling up a 4th time.

Scary, huh?
  • #46
  • Sep 28, 2013 11:56am Sep 28, 2013 11:56am
Ok, admittedly, that is assuming you are risking 1:1
  • #47
  • Sep 28, 2013 1:02pm Sep 28, 2013 1:02pm
You might find this useful. It calculates what your position size should be based on your risk, stop loss distance and account balance.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 LotCalculator.ex4   6 KB | 284 downloads
File Type: mq4 LotCalculator.mq4   7 KB | 314 downloads
  • #48
  • Sep 28, 2013 2:02pm Sep 28, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting jen101
Ok, admittedly, that is assuming you are risking 1:1
This is the trick my friend .. I said it in a post earlier, I'm aiming for no less than 1:3 Risk:Reward ratio.
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  • #49
  • Sep 29, 2013 3:51am Sep 29, 2013 3:51am
Oops sorry missed that. By setting your target at 1:3 minimum you will get a lot of losers. Have you factored that in?

Why the rush to go live and invest your life savings? You've only been at this a few weeks, a few months by January. Ok, you might be getting some good results for now, but the market has a habit of sending out a reality check just when you think you've cracked it.

If you are still getting consistent results by January, why not just go live with a smaller amount? You can always invest more if it all goes well.
  • #50
  • Sep 29, 2013 10:20am Sep 29, 2013 10:20am
Quoting jen101
Oops sorry missed that. By setting your target at 1:3 minimum you will get a lot of losers. Have you factored that in? Why the rush to go live and invest your life savings? You've only been at this a few weeks, a few months by January. Ok, you might be getting some good results for now, but the market has a habit of sending out a reality check just when you think you've cracked it. If you are still getting consistent results by January, why not just go live with a smaller amount? You can always invest more if it all goes well.
Jen, this is a money I don't need. I have the apartment fully furnitured, by Jan I'll have a job so you can say that these are like the little box primary school kids keep in their rooms to cut a part of their pocket money and save it their for the weekend
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  • #51
  • Sep 29, 2013 12:31pm Sep 29, 2013 12:31pm
Chance Of the Upcoming Week Discussion

Pair : UsdChf On the Daily Time Frame.

Case : Fake Breakout.

Description : The Price has broken under the support area at 0.91 but couldn't continue the way down because it was held by the so close next support area at 0.9 and after breaking such a strong support area like the one @ 0.91 the price shall be strongly bearish for awhile and not be held easily like it happens now, With that said I think this breakout was fake so I'll wait for the price to break back above the 0.91 and from there I'll go long to the nearest resistance @ 0.94 .

Waiting for your opinions, folks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfDaily.gif Size: 28 KB
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  • #52
  • Sep 29, 2013 1:05pm Sep 29, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} Jen, this is a money I don't need. I have the apartment fully furnitured, by Jan I'll have a job so you can say that these are like the little box primary school kids keep in their rooms to cut a part of their pocket money and save it their for the weekend
Ok, if you don't mind gambling it that's cool.
  • #53
  • Sep 29, 2013 7:35pm Sep 29, 2013 7:35pm
Sold it earlier today because of the Resistance level and the formation of the pinbar and the hammer, Tp and Sl are displayed on the chart ... This trade will last through the week I guess. So that's it. this week trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdh4.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #54
  • Sep 29, 2013 7:50pm Sep 29, 2013 7:50pm
Please if any admin crossed by, Change the thread title to the weekly trade. thx
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  • #55
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:20am Sep 30, 2013 7:20am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
Sold it earlier today because of the Resistance level and the formation of the pinbar and the hammer, Tp and Sl are displayed on the chart ... This trade will last through the week I guess. So that's it. this week trade. {image}

The Pound is a good boy so far
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdh4.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #56
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:37am Sep 30, 2013 11:37am
An update on this week trade: If the price gave me 2 more bear body 4h candle like the 2 formed already, I'll change my tp area to a more aggressive tp areas that I'll discuss here if this happened
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdh4.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #57
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:13pm Sep 30, 2013 4:13pm
End of the Day update, A daily Doji formed which strongly suggests that the price gonna move all way down at least till the end of the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzddaily.png Size: 40 KB
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  • #58
  • Last Post: Oct 11, 2013 1:13am Oct 11, 2013 1:13am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
Sold it earlier today because of the Resistance level and the formation of the pinbar and the hammer, Tp and Sl are displayed on the chart ... This trade will last through the week I guess. So that's it. this week trade. {image}
Exiting now at 1.9230 ... 300 pips is more than enough for me as a monthly target not only weekly so I'll see you next month. And I'm sorry for not looking up the thread but I have exams coming plus a new trading strategy to test. Best of luck for you my friends
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
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