Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 146 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,901
  • Sep 27, 2013 3:33am Sep 27, 2013 3:33am
panoramia @ thanks for ur valuable advice .thanks sir again and again.

and 1 request .plz publish usdcad supply and demand levels.
waiting for ur reply

thnx
  • #2,902
  • Sep 27, 2013 3:34am Sep 27, 2013 3:34am
Planning to go long on H4 demand on Russell 2000 CFD.

  1. Fresh an original D1 demand
  2. H4 levels above that D1 demand are not valid since they are all reactions to previous areas, those long tails absorbed demand of previous level
  3. Nice H4 demand level for set & forget. This is the one level that looks great with an unfilled gap right above it
  4. The whole D1 demand level is valid for a D1 set & forget as well

Alfonso

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 134 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 132 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,903
  • Sep 27, 2013 3:43am Sep 27, 2013 3:43am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Yes, there are very specific rules to draw them. You must learn them by heart and PRACTICE A LOT. The video that explained it has been removed from YouTube so I can't help you there right now, I can't upload it again for several reasons. I will make a new video on that matter in a couple of weeks, now I am too busy and away from home so I can't record that video together with other videos. Alfonso
at your convenience illuminati thank you so much!!!
you're doing a great humanitarian work in a very professional manner
i will never thank you enough
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,904
  • Sep 27, 2013 4:09am Sep 27, 2013 4:09am
Planning to go lon on Nikkei Index on H4 demand zone.

  1. Nice and stronng H4 demand with unfilled gap
  2. H4 demand right at distal line of D1 original and fresh demand area
  3. D1 uptrend trendline being respected

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 136 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 137 KB


I also planned a nice counter trend sell trade on H4, level with a big imbalance.

  1. Fresh and original H4 supply accordiing to my charts (I do not have more history)
  2. H4 supply is within a D1 fresh area which is within a Weekly supply area. Stacked higher timeframe levels
  3. H4 supply is right at the extreme

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 161 KB


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,905
  • Sep 27, 2013 4:19am Sep 27, 2013 4:19am
Quoting panoramia
I am still holding my SILVER and EURGBP D1 shorts. They are both at breakeven now, let's see if they want to keep on dropping more or not. I would love to push the market a little bit by selling 100 lots in demo, but it doesn't seem to work Alfonso {image}
Excuse me Alfonso,I don't know about your MM plan on silver so I don't have anything to ask you about your entry. But as I can see,the CP supply on D1 chart had been violated so what if we are trading with the curve (like on H4 chart or H1 chart) what would you do in these kinds of situations? If the zone is violated by a pip then it's not validated anymore right? So will you still looking for short even after a Supply zone had been taken out or you will based your decisions on another information on the chart? Thank you for your time.
  • #2,906
  • Sep 27, 2013 4:32am Sep 27, 2013 4:32am
Quoting frenetic
{quote} Excuse me Alfonso,I don't know about your MM plan on silver so I don't have anything to ask you about your entry. But as I can see,the CP supply on D1 chart had been violated so what if we are trading with the curve (like on H4 chart or H1 chart) what would you do in these kinds of situations? If the zone is violated by a pip then it's not validated anymore right? So will you still looking for short even after a Supply zone had been taken out or you will based your decisions on another information on the chart? Thank you for your time.
I've moved my SL lower than my entry above most recent H4 supply, so no matter what happens it will be a winner.
Once I am on a trade, I am on a trade, no way way, money is lost. My D1 CP supply was taken out, my SL survived by 1-2 pips, the level was clearly overshot, but price reacted to that area and dropped like expected. My wiggle room paddiing above D1 distal line protected me well this time.

On the weekly chart we can see there is a lot of room to previous demand, so I am holding it. Overshot levels happen often, then price drops like a rock. I am aware of that but my bias is still short on Silver based on the higher timeframe charts.

Hope it makes sense to you!
Alfonso
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 128 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 134 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,907
  • Sep 27, 2013 4:53am Sep 27, 2013 4:53am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I've moved my SL lower than my entry above most recent H4 supply, so no matter what happens it will be a winner. Once I am on a trade, I am on a trade, no way way, money is lost. My D1 CP supply was taken out, my SL survived by 1-2 pips, the level was clearly overshot, but price reacted to that area and dropped like expected. My wiggle room paddiing above D1 distal line protected me well this time. On the weekly chart we can see there is a lot of room to previous demand, so I am holding it. Overshot levels happen often, then price drops...

So if price doesn't reach WK demand,the next time price visit that D1 CP supply will you take that into consideration at all? Or you will look for another fresh supply level?
  • #2,908
  • Sep 27, 2013 5:35am Sep 27, 2013 5:35am
Quoting frenetic
{quote} So if price doesn't reach WK demand,the next time price visit that D1 CP supply will you take that into consideration at all? Or you will look for another fresh supply level?
We have to wait and see... my D1 CP was taken out, no longer valid... but there is a new peak that could potentially be a D1 supply zone. We need to see what price does when it reaches the WK demand.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,909
  • Sep 27, 2013 5:40am Sep 27, 2013 5:40am
Quoting panoramia
Looking to go long at the D1 fresh and original demand area on AUDJPY. This trade is a Monthly/Daily combination for position trade. There is also a nice H4 demand level for set & forget right at the distal D1 demand line. Unfilled gap at 91.06. I missed the top level a few days ago, I prefer to go for the lower level, level on top of level and unfilled gap. I will be trading the whole D1 level on my D1 account, thus covering both levels in that trade with a 25 pips SL padding underneath the D1 demand. Alfonso {image} {image}
But this original demand zone has been tested once...and also there is basing before that level...
so i think t doesn't fit our entry rules...right??
please explain me why you think this is a valid setup..!!!
  • #2,910
  • Edited 10:22am Sep 27, 2013 5:54am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting Kaloko
{quote} But this original demand zone has been tested once...and also there is basing before that level... so i think t doesn't fit our entry rules...right?? please explain me why you think this is a valid setup..!!!
I don't understand what you mean. I need you to explain it to me with graphics. You are referring to "this" but I don't know what "this" or "valid entry" is. I need to see what you see with a graphic and then I will tell you. I am not breaking any rules as per the way I am looking at it, but don't know what you are seeing or how you are seeing. My snapshots were posted so you know what I see and what I think, I would need yours.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 137 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,911
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:15am Sep 27, 2013 8:15am
Quoting shoplogix
" Risk can be managed, fear is NOT an option........." euro puke short off the 5 min. 5:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks Super mario, the fomc suit was yakking at 5 bells so you load up and trade right thru it. 2 supply bars were blown out and price reversed on the third. exit the trade for 15 ticks average per car. s all trading is " cumulative delta reversion to the mean. " {image} {image}
Hello Shoplogix!

Posting timeframes lower than H1 is not allowed on the thread, even less M1 charts. We are not using MACD either. I would please ask you to remove previous post of the thread, since it goes against the first post rules. We just want to trade the way it's drescribed on post #1 since those are the rules. Sorry to ask you this, could you please remove it? This is a swing trading thread, not a scalping or intraday thread. If this is not done, I will have to ask for a clean-up and no more posts will be allowed from your side. Sorry to say it like this, it's just rules, we all need to follow them.

Please send me a private message when you have done it. If I see that the post is still there by Monday, I will have to proceed with the clean-up.

Thanks in advance!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,912
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:17am Sep 27, 2013 8:17am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I don't understand what you mean. I need you to explain it to me with graphics. You are referring to "this" but I don't know what "this" or "valid entry" is. I need to see what you see with a graphic and then I will tell you. I am not breaking any rules as per the way I am looking at it, but don't know what you are seeing or how you are seeing. My snapshots were posted so you know what I see and what I think, I would need yours. Alfonso
ok i post the chart with my notes on it so you can explain me if my thinking is wrong
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1me.png Size: 113 KB
  • #2,913
  • Sep 27, 2013 9:35am Sep 27, 2013 9:35am
Quoting Kaloko
{quote} ok i post the chart with my notes on it so you can explain me if my thinking is wrong {image}
There is no retest of that orignal and fresh D1 demand zone. If that zone was retested it would not be blue but DimGray. I don't care about basing if I my trade goes with the trend.

Level has these conditions:

  1. Nice departure with unfilled gap
  2. +3:1 risk/reward
  3. Untested, fresh and origignal
  4. Big picture is with the trade, room to reach opposing HTF supply
  5. Little time at the level

I am long on AUDJPY D1 level, full level with lots adjusted. I need nothing else to confirm the validity of the level.
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,914
  • Sep 27, 2013 10:08am Sep 27, 2013 10:08am
Hi Alfonso!

My broker doesn't have any data pre 2008 on the AUDNZD, so I'm working with what I've got. I was actually long from a weekly demand level below @1.124, but I didn't see any weekly lines on your chart. The trade was at 3:1 at one time, but price hit your daily supply and started dropping, so I decided to close my trade at 1:1 (instead of BE which would've been hit by now).

Could I ask you or anyone else with pre 2008 data on AUDNZD to share your HTF zones please? It would be much appreciated
  • #2,915
  • Sep 27, 2013 10:26am Sep 27, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi Alfonso! I noticed that interestingly enough the exact setup on Dow would have resulted in a loss. In fact it sets up for a short on H4 supply now, correct me if its invalid! {image} {image} S&P is really close to your entry now, still a chance you might get triggered in. If so hope it turns out well (which likely also means Dow breakdown was a fakeout )! And yes my trading has definitely improved since I started on this thread, mainly because your rules enabled me to filter many bad setups. I used to suffer a very bad win rate from...
Finally I got triggered long on S&P 500 e-mini D1 zone, let's see if this one wants to work, I just followed the rules... we'll see!
Off to the beach now! Been working whole day on a personal project and a bit tired.

My H4 and H1 accounts are disconnected so I won't get any trades on those timeframes until I connect them on Monday, don't want Sunday gaps surprises on those

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 138 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,916
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:29am Sep 27, 2013 11:29am
Keep up the Good work Alfonso I am pulling for you. Alfonso is a great trader folks you would do well to pay attention to him.
  • #2,917
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:13pm Sep 27, 2013 11:13pm
Watching for a position trade on AUDCHF:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 50 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 64 KB


A very similar setup can be found on EURAUD, which is like the inverse pair of AUDCHF. The setup on both is essentially a Quasimodo pattern.

Meanwhile a short opportunity is also available on AUDCHF H4.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 56 KB


Comments are welcome!
  • #2,918
  • Sep 28, 2013 12:09am Sep 28, 2013 12:09am
Alfonso,

Thank you for the thread, it's awesome. I have one question for you in regards to gaps:

What is the proper way to draw S/D levels when there is a gap? I've seen some of yours but I'm still confused slightly on the rules for gaps and where we want to optimally buy/sell and have our levels drawn for gaps.

Ely
  • #2,919
  • Sep 28, 2013 3:06am Sep 28, 2013 3:06am
Quoting Myst1z
Watching for a position trade on AUDCHF: {image} {image} A very similar setup can be found on EURAUD, which is like the inverse pair of AUDCHF. The setup on both is essentially a Quasimodo pattern. Meanwhile a short opportunity is also available on AUDCHF H4. {image} Comments are welcome!
Nice AUDCHF setup Ivan, I agree with your analysis on AUDCHF. The way you explained the setup was just excellent, congralutions! Just a couple of things I would like to point out:

  1. My H4 supply on AUCHF is slightly different. I cover the whole zone, there is a last week high (red beads). I am tired of seeing levels like those being overshot and then drop in my direction. So I covered the whole area
  2. Buying on AUDCHF H4. I believe there is also an interesting H4 demand right above your level, it's got an unfilled gap. This level is right at the Wk demand proximal line which took out previous highs at 0.8580

I will go long at the extreme level you pointed out, but also at that H4 demand + gap.

That's just what I see.
Alfonso

Have a great weekend to all of you... off to practising some outdoor activities

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 67 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,920
  • Sep 28, 2013 6:36am Sep 28, 2013 6:36am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Nice AUDCHF setup Ivan, I agree with your analysis on AUDCHF. The way you explained the setup was just excellent, congralutions! Just a couple of things I would like to point out: My H4 supply on AUCHF is slightly different. I cover the whole zone, there is a last week high (red beads). I am tired of seeing levels like those being overshot and then drop in my direction. So I covered the whole area Buying on AUDCHF H4. I believe there is also an interesting H4 demand right above your level, it's got an unfilled gap. This level is right at...

Thanks for the extra points, makes sense and I will take note of them!
6 traders viewing now