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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #43,121
  • Sep 25, 2013 2:09pm Sep 25, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} well it was not there that time...should be here in 2 days... V
ya read carefully, between the lines. supposed to be secrets.
you think they will put in public eyes?
read carefully.

you know, is very difficult in life.
I put so much " secrets" on thread.
But not many sees because somethings , if one not have hands on experience, can see zip.
no need say about those lazy ones, they will be very very blind.
esp those who wants summaries.

remember jesus parable about the seeds?

regards
  • #43,122
  • Edited 2:45pm Sep 25, 2013 2:31pm | Edited 2:45pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ya read carefully, between the lines. supposed to be secrets. you think they will put in public eyes? read carefully. you know, is very difficult in life. I put so much " secrets" on thread. But not many sees because somethings , if one not have hands on experience, can see zip. no need say about those lazy ones, they will be very very blind. esp those who wants summaries. remember jesus parable about the seeds? regards
you know, the difficulty learns mediataion of mind?
is very simple, let go the desires.
students does years of that. comes to the master.
master tells they failed.
not unless they had let go the desire of letting go desire.

but those succeeded, they will understand.
many would know swat.
remember the monk i posted who was teaching walking mediataion?
thats the result mostly when they fail. they teach.

Nothing can be taught, only learned.


regards.
  • #43,123
  • Sep 25, 2013 9:58pm Sep 25, 2013 9:58pm
Quote
Nothing can be taught, only learned.

very true sir.. since when becoming a guru, student's attention directed to guru or concept of guru's teaching..
the best way should be pointing, so that student experience himself

this is just what fti doing now, isn't?
open for any perspective and sharing own, and not becoming a teacher who own the only truth, and everyone should respect to
understanding others mistake as already made same mistake years.. ago..

that's why true guru is a student..
well.. there is some disadvantages..
there will be no certificate for that kind of guru.. and no one will bow their body.. and someone said: yes sir.. yes sir..

btw.. i miss leighsww in this thread.. with her whip..

Sincerely,
Sincerely,
  • #43,124
  • Sep 26, 2013 2:49am Sep 26, 2013 2:49am
Recent discussion about liquidity made me think about order fill and slippage. If someone puts an order of a few billion to buy dollar at $1, from my limited understanding they get filled at various prices based on liquidity and the average price they might pay could be something like $1.2 My question is could a customer specify to only fill when possible at $1? So potentially that order might take a while to fill as it only limits offers at $1 as acceptable. Does that ever happen or do they assume that the average price will be higher and at those amount they don't care?
  • #43,125
  • Edited 4:19am Sep 26, 2013 3:32am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting benazi
Recent discussion about liquidity made me think about order fill and slippage. If someone puts an order of a few billion to buy dollar at $1, from my limited understanding they get filled at various prices based on liquidity and the average price they might pay could be something like $1.2 My question is could a customer specify to only fill when possible at $1? So potentially that order might take a while to fill as it only limits offers at $1 as acceptable. Does that ever happen or do they assume that the average price will be higher and at those...
place limit order instructuions with bank dealer.

"buy usd/??? a few billion @ $1 OB."

OB= or better

then bank dealer will go in market bid 0.9998 , may take whole day fill the order.

regards

what ever he gets is his book.
he will continue bid 0.9998 for usd/???
if markets sells 0.9998 up to some billions, you get fill .
you bought a few billion usd/??? at $1
otherwise you get nothing.
and they will keep working you on the bid.

otherwise you can do this.

>hi dealers.
>may i have a usd/??? for some billiomns please.

>>mom

>>1.0001/0.9999

>i buy please

>>ok done you bought some billions 1.0001.

>>my ??? to .......?????
>>your usd to you account ny.

>>thanks for deal,
>>have a nice horrible day.

regards
  • #43,126
  • Edited 5:43am Sep 26, 2013 4:31am | Edited 5:43am
The dealer hangs up, shouts over to 8 senior dealers.

call out usd/??? in 100 million

CIT I>1.0000/0.9998
mine

JPM>0.9999/0.9997
mine

SBC>1.0000/0.9998
mine

standchart> 1.0001/0.9999
mine

BOT>......MGA>.....COMZ.... ......................................

how much we manage buy? position assistant.
>>oh we bought 8.7 billion total.

ok on broker tokyo, i offer 700 million usd/??? 1.0005

tokyo>>> ahhrrr we buy.

ok done.

squared.
how much we made.

>eeer calculating sir......
>eeer 3 million usd.

ok
hello mary.
mary>hey man.
i going to club now for drink hor. After i get all the name switches sorted out.
tokyo gave me 70 small fish names, mostly i cannot do. dang balls breaking.
mary>ok see you there. you want me wear kinky today?
ok go get something nice , put on my card.
This month big bonus coming.
mary>caught 1 pond fish?
yeah, tell you later.
b4n
mary> byeeeeeee

>ei boss, sbc calling outside line.
>where you now on usd/???

indicative usd/??? 1.0007/0.9997
and i taken BIG earlier.

> eeer noted , thank you.
> yeah he recond so when you took him earlier.
> he want know if you in drink joint later?

yeah yeah , will be there, ask him bring his card.

> boss, BOT technical analyt on outside line.
> he asked to tell you he not drinking today. need babyit his position because it touching the line.
> and some idiot seems bought big in market earlier, and he caught short.

ok noted. don't tell him we was the idiot.
  • #43,127
  • Edited 6:07am Sep 26, 2013 5:51am | Edited 6:07am
Quoting fti
The dealer hangs up, shouts over to 8 senior dealers. call out usd/??? in 100 million CIT I>1.0000/0.9998 mine JPM>0.9999/0.9997 mine SBC>1.0000/0.9998 mine standchart> 1.0001/0.9999 mine BOT>......MGA>.....COMZ.... ...................................... how much we manage buy? position assistant. >>oh we bought 8.7 billion total. ok on broker tokyo, i offer 700 million usd/??? 1.0005 tokyo>>> ahhrrr we buy. ok done. squared. how much we made. >eeer calculating sir...... >eeer 3 million usd. ok hello mary. mary>hey man. i going to club now...
>sir Boa calling for price usd/??? for 200 mllion.

mom
i deal 1.0008/1.0010

call out

> i buy

ok done.


bot> 1.0009/1.0011
buy
sbc>1.0008/1.0010
buy
......buy.... buy....buy.... buy....

MGA>
MGA>hi hi friends
MGA>usd/??? in 100 million please.

ok,
1.0015/17

MGA> thanks nothing there.
  • #43,128
  • Edited 7:07am Sep 26, 2013 6:02am | Edited 7:07am
now everyone can understand meaning of shading?

regards

what you think butterfly doing?
want try match my speed, in decisiion process?
ya ya use a computer.
i still smash em ducks.

takes forever load things. like stone age.
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  • #43,129
  • Sep 26, 2013 6:21am Sep 26, 2013 6:21am
Quoting fti
whats taking you so long? 1.35128/140. lor if he makes 1.35120/130 then must be when you selling his 1.35125, some one bought his offer lor. and the size taken was bigger than yours lor. other wise the price he made for you would remain same waiting you/someone be piggish(mm makes spread pips). just remember interbank spot price indicative is normally 10 pips spread on reuters asap page. so markets can be anywhere within that spread. but from interbro, you should be able know which side the shade. and which regional sector shading which side. example,...
Thank you , Understood that the retail market quote can be anywhere between the reuters asap interbank spread.

So if the marketmaker / dealer is unable to offload the position, and is long, he will quote a higher bid so he will be longer ? ie. 1.35128 / 140
Is this in preparation to market reversion , so the marketmaker can offload all the longs quickly ?

And if a marketmaker/dealer can off load the position (back to back) that he bought from the trader, then he will just move on and quote lower ie. 1.35120/130 following the "flow" of the markets ?

Please correct if my understanding is not right.

regards.
  • #43,130
  • Edited 7:44am Sep 26, 2013 7:09am | Edited 7:44am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Thank you , Understood that the retail market quote can be anywhere between the reuters asap interbank spread. So if the marketmaker / dealer is unable to offload the position, and is long, he will quote a higher bid so he will be longer ? ie. 1.35128 / 140 Is this in preparation to market reversion , so the marketmaker can offload all the longs quickly ? And if a marketmaker/dealer can off load the position (back to back) that he bought from the trader, then he will just move on and quote lower ie. 1.35120/130 following the "flow" of...

there much skills in the bag. Cannot depend on 1 trick pony mind.
ability adjust to the flow is paramount.
i gave example from perspective if highest on the food chain.
stratigies depends on where one is in the chain.

no one have ability out scalp market makers.no matter at what ever level in the chain.
price spread edge.

market maker take the profits squared already. leave the smart boys fight amongst yourselfs decide who takes the loss.
there lots smart boys, mostly they have system to do that,daily. some have system do it monthly.
Those who do it quaterly, i call them economist.

regards
  • #43,131
  • Sep 26, 2013 7:38am Sep 26, 2013 7:38am
Quoting fti
{quote} there much skills in the bag. Cannot depend on 1 trick pony mind. ability adjust to the flow is paramount. i gave example from perspective if highest on the food chain. stratigies depends on where one is in the chain. no one have ability out scalp market makers.no matter at what ever level in the chain. price spread edge. regards
The rabbit hole runs deep my dear sir ...
  • #43,132
  • Sep 26, 2013 7:41am Sep 26, 2013 7:41am
i'm not sure where i read this but i recall fti mentioning , regarding leverage, that for every increase in leverage eg, from 1:1 to 1:2, the risk increases 10 fold.

am not sure of the math, but am i right somewhat ?
  • #43,133
  • Sep 26, 2013 7:46am Sep 26, 2013 7:46am
Quoting appleboy
i'm not sure where i read this but i recall fti mentioning , regarding leverage, that for every increase in leverage eg, from 1:1 to 1:2, the risk increases 10 fold. am not sure of the math, but am i right somewhat ?
not wrong, is exponential.
why you think mostly the balls crack.
those who manage not crack balls, they never did risk it that low often.
has risk line(limit) disciplines.

Is mostly small ants who think have big balls because have system that gets smacked. thats what i seen from experience.
These peeps live same kinds lifestyles. In life they behave same.

regards
  • #43,134
  • Sep 26, 2013 7:49am Sep 26, 2013 7:49am
''When entrenched in a trend move, attention is paid to possibilities of reversals and holding to attack when complimentary patterns emerges.




In a nut shell, thats the dance.'' by fti!!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #43,135
  • Edited 8:55am Sep 26, 2013 7:54am | Edited 8:55am
Quoting priceaction1
''When entrenched in a trend move, attention is paid to possibilities of reversals and holding to attack when complimentary patterns emerges. In a nut shell, thats the dance.'' by fti!!
see? rigidity. oh he said that? in what context? nut shell is everything?
he wasted so much ff thread space say 1 line.

when entrenched in trend move, mean already lots risk(foreign) capital. try quote within context.

regards

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  • #43,136
  • Sep 26, 2013 8:13am Sep 26, 2013 8:13am
thank you fti! it's great to see the process, as they say the house always wins (or a bank in this case hehe)
  • #43,137
  • Sep 26, 2013 8:20am Sep 26, 2013 8:20am
he wasted so much ff thread space say 1 line
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #43,138
  • Sep 26, 2013 8:44am Sep 26, 2013 8:44am
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  • #43,139
  • Sep 26, 2013 9:02am Sep 26, 2013 9:02am
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  • #43,140
  • Sep 26, 2013 9:31am Sep 26, 2013 9:31am
Quoting fti
even you plant, if God not give sun and rain, insects no polinate, whats to harvest? sit there look to heaven and wait for all things drop from sky onto laptop?
Quoting dhani
Me read first hundreds of pages.. then continue with "fti teaching(updated).doc" He who summarized is generous..
Hah. I was so happy to find a summary finally... but turns out now that I've read most of it already.
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