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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #9,361
  • Sep 25, 2013 12:06pm Sep 25, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting Mad Russian
{quote} how about this one {image}
No I don't like that chart.
I always say "Anything is possible", but at this stage I have to say "Some ideas are too far fetched"
Not that an AB=CD is not going to happen, but at this stage unless the US falls flat on its face and Europe miraculously returns to strong growth, I cannot imagine 1.44.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,362
  • Sep 25, 2013 1:05pm Sep 25, 2013 1:05pm
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Below is EUR-DXY correlation chart. it seems to suggest that DXY is now in early stage of clear down trend. If so the corresponding prices higher for EURUSD will pick up momentum to the upside.
  • #9,363
  • Sep 25, 2013 1:08pm Sep 25, 2013 1:08pm
After a big decline middle of last week, we seem to have tried to bounce or paused on low volume, indicative of resumption of the down trend for the coming week in DXY
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This would also support stronger price action of EURUSD. in DXY Shorter term chart, you can see what I mean based on my analysis and EW counts
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  • #9,364
  • Sep 25, 2013 1:17pm Sep 25, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting Mad Russian
After a big decline middle of last week, we seem to have tried to bounce or paused on low volume, indicative of resumption of the down trend for the coming week in DXY {image} This would also support stronger price action of EURUSD. in DXY Shorter term chart, you can see what I mean based on my analysis and EW counts 1281481
???
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,365
  • Sep 25, 2013 2:44pm Sep 25, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting milam
{quote} ok, lets see, also GU up and UC down
made 63 pips more +1.20%

my au long was not triggered and cancelled, UC went short, not that good, but I am still in it, all part of the deal.
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #9,366
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:01pm Sep 25, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} AU is my choice, its in preparation to reverse move UP, probably make higher high... already bought though {image}
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #9,367
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:25pm Sep 25, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting milam
{quote} made 63 pips more +1.20% my au long was not triggered and cancelled, UC went short, not that good, but I am still in it, all part of the deal. {image}
great
my uc at 0323(highest was 0318) not been triggered good luck
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #9,368
  • Edited Sep 26, 2013 7:07am Sep 25, 2013 4:31pm | Edited Sep 26, 2013 7:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Trying a short at 1.3515 SL just above the 1.3567 high Target is 1.3325 RR 3.5:1 EURUSDCALL
Am also short @ 35260 but have SL relatively @3580 else exit bullish Tenkan Kijun cross on H1 ...edit: H4
H1&H4 are pointing down but - and that is a big BUT -weelkly RSI is still gaining
  • #9,369
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:48pm Sep 25, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting bzzz
{quote} great my uc at 0323(highest was 0318) not been triggered good luck
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #9,370
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:51pm Sep 25, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting 2046
{quote} Am also short @ 35260 but have SL relatively @3580 else exit bullish Tenkan Kijun cross on H1 H1&H4 are pointing down but - and that is a big BUT -weelkly RSI is still gaining
On weekly I am seeing 8 weeks of low volume and a 5 period RSX bearish divergence.
So unless we get some really bad news from the US or some really good news from Europe, I don't think the divergence will be overcome.
That is not to say we cannot see 1.3630/70 first, but it gives me just enough confidence to hang on to the short and absolutely no confidence to go long.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,371
  • Sep 25, 2013 6:56pm Sep 25, 2013 6:56pm
Hi Clubbers,

About tapering

On Sep 20th the Fed recognized that tapering has actually same effect than policy rate.

Tapering triggers is "until there is substantial improvement in the labor market" = no exact figure
However policy rate has clear triggers:

  1. unemployment falls below 6.5 percent
    or
  2. inflation rises above 2.5 percent

Hence we can assume that same triggers can be used to forecast tapering, since fed recognizes that Asset purchases has actually same effect than policy rate. (no?)

As per last releases from Fed I don't see how targets stated 15th Aug for rate policy would trigger.

About inflation forecast, nothing above 2.5 (chart ending at Jul 2014 + new forecast CAPPED BELOW 2.5%...ouch)
Regarding unemployment rate, nothing below 6.5% before Dec 14

However, Fed official unemployment rate has the good direction in the trend. Inflation not.
Well....
"An easier-than-expected policy path would (1) lower real
interest rates, (2) raise inflation expectations, (3) increase
equity prices, and (4) depreciate the dollar."

okay. Then why not increase the pace of asset purchase instead of talking about tapering? Since unemployment rate trend has already taken the good direction, still only inflation curve to re-route, no?

well, in the meantime I'm going to UN-taper my asset shorting program against USD at a good pace and on a long term...till I can see some improvement as well (but in my account)

http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/...t2013Final.pdf
http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/...ber20final.pdf

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  • #9,372
  • Sep 25, 2013 10:24pm Sep 25, 2013 10:24pm
Quoting Raza
{quote} Hello, Risk is still 1.3571 to 1.3590. I will swing sell then with 100 pip stop. ( Reward is 500 pip to 1200 pips)hopefully. Doors are wide open to the downside....but Mofu is still Bullish.
risk still is......it must go above last high. It did not come back up here for nothing ?
downside 1.3410 is support. It's gonna hit downside or upside first that's the question. I will wait......
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #9,373
  • Edited 11:26pm Sep 25, 2013 10:57pm | Edited 11:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} ??? {image}
'Better' than yours... @ yesterday

  1. Post# 347,470

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post6986896

  1. Post# 837,840

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post6985805

Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #9,374
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:13pm Sep 25, 2013 11:13pm
the powers of the oval office were greatly expanded during the bush administration...

the following could be a very interesting expansion of these powers (going beyond war), and if it comes to pass, would set a precedent...

"...If Congress fails to raise the debt limit by Oct. 17, could President Barack Obama step in and raise the ceiling by executive action?...
...Clinton said Obama should invoke the 14th Amendment “without hesitation” to raise the debt ceiling and “force the courts to stop me....”

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitol...mself-analyst/
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #9,375
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:46pm Sep 25, 2013 11:46pm
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... or is it China again?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #9,376
  • Sep 26, 2013 12:10am Sep 26, 2013 12:10am
two charts from me
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #9,377
  • Sep 26, 2013 1:33am Sep 26, 2013 1:33am
Good morning friends,



hope all is well in da Club :-)

Quick message before I have to run:


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz2fvM1Okfv
  • #9,378
  • Sep 26, 2013 2:50am Sep 26, 2013 2:50am
Good morning, here's some flow commentary from one of the big banks:

EURUSD - Stop loss are building above 1.3575 ... balance downside. Corporate are still selling EURUSD and fast money are trying to play a short term correction to 1.3300. Vola is realy under water if you want to play a break higher a 2 weeks eur call 1.3600 (u get also payroll) cost 0.32 BP (also technically EUR seems like to move higher.

GBP - Real money bought GBPUSD all the day yesterday, Mick like to be short EURGBP .. offer are above the recent high and stop loss are building below 0.8350 .. My guys are short cash and bought a 1 week 30 delta EUR PUT for 20 BP

USDJPY - CPI will be the main focus this friday for the JPY. We saw in this days macro cutting long below 99.00 but Asia Names, Japanese Names and good names are always in Bid.. We are long ..

EURCZK - My desk is long the cross this morning. Please read caroline today, we expect an intervention from the CB (3 pct move) all the details in our EMG daily ...

AUD - We are long both AUDUSD and AUDNZD. In AUD export are buing AUD around 0.9340 leaving us with a nice floor for now.. good luck
  • #9,379
  • Sep 26, 2013 3:07am Sep 26, 2013 3:07am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
long audusd 9358. target 9400
done
looking for investors . pm me
  • #9,380
  • Sep 26, 2013 3:08am Sep 26, 2013 3:08am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
long usdjpy 98.53 target 99.00
done
looking for investors . pm me
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