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Economic Analysis VS Market Action

  • #101
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:02pm Sep 23, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting krunfx
NY Fed's Dudley:“We might wait a long time after we breach the [6.5%] threshold before we begin to raise our federal funds rate target” so actually we can say october tapering=nonsense
I am beginning to think so, yes. I'm coming to the view that there will be no taper, not for a long time, but what will stop the $'s rot will not be tapering; it'll be a new LTRO from the ECB.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #102
  • Sep 23, 2013 5:17pm Sep 23, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting pbylina
{quote} What is this LTRO and why is it bad for EURO?
For those who not know LTRO it is long term refinancing operation....it is QE..means printing more money to flooded financial market with easy money.....in the sametime euro will devalue means losss in value.
Bismillah
  • #103
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:11pm Sep 23, 2013 11:11pm
actually when i make a projection for euro move this is what i get.... for real long term euro actually make a bullish pennant pattern....that is after this bullish movement up it will make a down movement before make a breakout to go higher.......but this is only for long term view....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURO.jpg Size: 243 KB
Bismillah
  • #104
  • Sep 24, 2013 1:11am Sep 24, 2013 1:11am
Quoting krunfx
actually when i make a projection for euro move this is what i get.... for real long term euro actually make a bullish pennant pattern....that is after this bullish movement up it will make a down movement before make a breakout to go higher.......but this is only for long term view.... {image}
Currencies don't move 2,000 pips on technical setups, ever. On moves more than 100 - 200 pips technicals are irrelevant IMO.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #105
  • Sep 24, 2013 1:34am Sep 24, 2013 1:34am
Quoting pbylina
{quote} What is this LTRO and why is it bad for EURO?
LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) is a ECB program that will give european banks cash (money) in exchange for collateral (bonds,loans,asset-backed-securties,morgages,etc.).
The bank then paysback that loan in a maxium of 3 years but it is allowed to repay after only 1 year + interest, that is very small, 1%.

Its not bad for the euro, but market reaction was to sell the euro since more supply of euros is avaible.
  • #106
  • Edited 2:31am Sep 24, 2013 2:18am | Edited 2:31am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} Currencies don't move 2,000 pips on technical setups, ever. On moves more than 100 - 200 pips technicals are irrelevant IMO.
numbnuts - IMO that depends on which TF u r referring your technical, if u r watch monthly chart technical then that can push price more, more than 100-200 you have mentioned. Infact, even h4 can push price more than 200 pips. Just my understanding not an absolute thing, funny about market is nothing here can be proved 100% with proofs. Eveyone has there own understanding / interpretation of this devil.

Edit - But definitely market cannot move technically as far as it can move with fundamentals & at the same time market cannot move with fundamentals as much as technicals. For eg. day trader & scalpers who is looking to gain 20-50 pips doesnt have to wait for any fundamental play to take place, he can come everyday to market watch its technical play & earn pips but fundamental traders cannot come everyday & trade fundamental idea & make pip everyday. I think I have made mess here with my poor english but certainly at least I might have baffled you with bullshit
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #107
  • Sep 24, 2013 2:43am Sep 24, 2013 2:43am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} Currencies don't move 2,000 pips on technical setups, ever. On moves more than 100 - 200 pips technicals are irrelevant IMO.
Posible ..please see gbp/jpy from 2007 to 2008 for the proof
Bismillah
  • #108
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:18am Sep 24, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Celestica
{quote} LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) is a ECB program that will give european banks cash (money) in exchange for collateral (bonds,loans,asset-backed-securties,morgages,etc.). The bank then paysback that loan in a maxium of 3 years but it is allowed to repay after only 1 year + interest, that is very small, 1%. Its not bad for the euro, but market reaction was to sell the euro since more supply of euros is avaible.
good interpretation
Bismillah
  • #109
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:44pm Sep 24, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting krunfx
{quote} Posible ..please see gbp/jpy from 2007 to 2008 for the proof
I was of the impression that the beginning of the global financial crisis, triggered by the collapse of the US housing bubble, caused widespread deleveraging of risk investment and flight back to low yield havens USD and JPY. Are you saying the whole thing was really caused by a head and shoulders pattern or fibo bounce on some obscure currency pair? If that is true, my understanding of economics is way off base.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #110
  • Sep 24, 2013 4:00pm Sep 24, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I was of the impression that the beginning of the global financial crisis, triggered by the collapse of the US housing bubble, caused widespread deleveraging of risk investment and flight back to low yield havens USD and JPY. Are you saying the whole thing was really caused by a head and shoulders pattern or fibo bounce on some obscure currency pair? If that is true, my understanding of economics is way off base.
Stady the carry trade wisely hehe
Bismillah
  • #111
  • Sep 24, 2013 7:41pm Sep 24, 2013 7:41pm
Lets share what u understand from this picture and we actually have the method...we forecast and we know the price direction but at the end we fail to profit...why?????? usually trader fail because they cant control their emotion=mind and less mangement in the risk =money management ..

Attached Image
Bismillah
  • #112
  • Sep 25, 2013 6:51am Sep 25, 2013 6:51am
Since fed watch housing development..this new home sale posible first data to express next fed tapering policy..watching
Bismillah
  • #113
  • Sep 25, 2013 7:05am Sep 25, 2013 7:05am
Quoting krunfx
Since fed watch housing development..this new home sale posible first data to express next fed tapering policy..watching
Means no next tapering . ???
  • #114
  • Sep 25, 2013 7:29am Sep 25, 2013 7:29am
Quoting terminator12
{quote} Means no next tapering . ???
for housing there are 2 left to cosider housing start and pending home sale..all must be green..and there must result in more inflation with green job data to make tapering imminent !!!!
Bismillah
  • #115
  • Sep 25, 2013 7:47pm Sep 25, 2013 7:47pm
USD/JPY up on Speculation Over Japan Corporate Tax Cut .....

tax cut is good...since looks like fiscal discipline success....
Bismillah
  • #116
  • Sep 25, 2013 9:14pm Sep 25, 2013 9:14pm
the powers of the oval office were greatly expanded during the bush administration...

the following could be a very interesting expansion of these powers (going beyond war), and if it comes to pass, would set a precedent...

"...If Congress fails to raise the debt limit by Oct. 17, could President Barack Obama step in and raise the ceiling by executive action?...
...Clinton said Obama should invoke the 14th Amendment “without hesitation” to raise the debt ceiling and “force the courts to stop me....”

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitol...mself-analyst/
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #117
  • Sep 25, 2013 9:24pm Sep 25, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting theDHT
the powers of the oval office were greatly expanded during the bush administration... the following could be a very interesting expansion of these powers (going beyond war), and if it comes to pass, would set a precedent... "...If Congress fails to raise the debt limit by Oct. 17, could President Barack Obama step in and raise the ceiling by executive action?... ...Clinton said Obama should invoke the 14th Amendment “without hesitation” to raise the debt ceiling and “force the courts to stop me....” http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitol...mself-analyst/...
it must ....and then QE 4-ever..hahaha
Bismillah
  • #118
  • Sep 25, 2013 9:28pm Sep 25, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting krunfx
{quote} it must ....and then QE 4-ever..hahaha
i think a resolution to this facade is already in the works, the markets seem unshaken

I am of the view that the major US averages are gonna pop going into early/mid October in a "relief" that disaster was averted (yet again!)

frankly, all this brinkmanship makes me sick to my stomach
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #119
  • Sep 25, 2013 9:30pm Sep 25, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} i think a resolution to this facade is already in the works, the markets seem unshaken I am of the view that the major US averages are gonna pop going into early/mid October in a "relief" that disaster was averted (yet again!) frankly, all this brinkmanship makes me sick to my stomach
if he up the debt ceiling....US rating is on the risk to cut...uhuhu
Bismillah
  • #120
  • Sep 25, 2013 9:33pm Sep 25, 2013 9:33pm
Quoting krunfx
{quote} if he up the debt ceiling....US rating is on the risk to cut...uhuhu

S&P (or Moody's... I don't remember which, but it was one of these two) made a statement earlier in the week that a raise in the US Debt ceiling would not have a ratings impact because the long term outlook is stable/positive

One good thing about this administration is that they are cutting the deficit at a fast clip, which would mitigate any downside to the sovereign rating... or so it would seem...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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