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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #43,081
  • Edited 12:53pm Sep 24, 2013 11:47am | Edited 12:53pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} aah the "FLOW"......read somewhere.... the warrior and the sword become one.....something like that... V BTW anyone crazy in this thread who does aftermarket installation on cars...mostly electronics....

funny world.
these days have phone that takes pictures and cameras that can call friends.
one day maybe i can cook my food with.

super friend.
he goes camping, no need bring food.
hello, can pls deliver pizza to ..., wait,, eeer whats our gps coordinates ?

eeer no need , just switch on the chip in your behind. The satalitte will find you.

while hunting, eeer, can you phone locate nearest chicken. I am hungry.

regards
1 friend suggested to me why there no liquidity in markets anymore.
who wants make markets.
they hitting in nano seconds.
i cannot off my price when market moves.
so why make markets, let them go manufacture their own markets.
Then we complain, how come markets have no liquidity.
I am wating for all humans leave markets, then we can all sit stare at blank screen.
may just take 50 years fill 1 order.

actually market makers thinking to impliment this.

hihi friend,
may i have usd/dmk in 10 mio pls.

mom pls.

1.3510/12

please key in the below codes verify that you not a robot.

shesellseashellsattheseashorethequickbrownfoxjumpsoverthelazydogandbeforeyoufinishtypingthisinmypricechangedhahaha

hey friend, you want to trade or not?

-cut-
or mayb all will be trading at money changer rates.

1.3500/1.3800
  • #43,082
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:58pm Sep 24, 2013 12:58pm
this whats happening now.

market maker 1.3500/1.3550

retail 1.35125/1.35135

retail trader: buy 10

done. confirm you bought 10 at 1,35135

retail next price 1.35001/1.35022

now you know why prices just jerks?

regards
  • #43,083
  • Sep 24, 2013 1:06pm Sep 24, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting fti
this whats happening now. market maker 1.3500/1.3550 retail 1.35125/1.35135 retail trader: buy 10 done. confirm you bought 10 at 1,35135 retail next price 1.35001/1.35022 now you know why prices just jerks? regards
so what do we have to do?......

V

PS: MM can only go so far....
  • #43,084
  • Edited 1:34pm Sep 24, 2013 1:09pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} so what do we have to do?...... V PS: MM can only go so far....
now i stratigise for trading 20 pips spreads with mm to match for majors and 50 pips spreads on others for non marketable sizes.
we can all thank the robots for that.
when gets worst i will restrategise accordingly.

so for the institutional pro dealers exposure , would be prudent mark up var by about 300%-500% for exposure safety, if leveraged.
spot should be 30 to 50%. This what i heard, they done.

synthetics sigmas should mark up by similar amounts. In fact speeds should be marked up significantly more.
have not done model analysis determine that yet.


regards
  • #43,085
  • Sep 24, 2013 1:52pm Sep 24, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting fti
{quote} now i stratigise for trading 20 pips spreads with mm to match for majors and 50 pips spreads on others for non marketable sizes. we can all thank the robots for that. when gets worst i will restrategise accordingly. so for the institutional pro dealers exposure , would be prudent mark up var by about 300%-500% for exposure safety, if leveraged. spot should be 30 to 50%. This what i heard, they done. synthetics sigmas should mark up by similar amounts. In fact speeds should be marked up significantly more. have not done model analysis...
yea that's make lot of sense.you give me one more reason not to be highly leverage,atleast on the retail end it will kill accounts.becos one is playing against such high odds.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,086
  • Sep 24, 2013 1:56pm Sep 24, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting fti
{quote} now i stratigise for trading 20 pips spreads with mm to match for majors and 50 pips spreads on others for non marketable sizes. we can all thank the robots for that. when gets worst i will restrategise accordingly. so for the institutional pro dealers exposure , would be prudent mark up var by about 300%-500% for exposure safety, if leveraged. spot should be 30 to 50%. This what i heard, they done. synthetics sigmas should mark up by similar amounts. In fact speeds should be marked up significantly more. have not done model analysis...

well i am playing like that but with scout size as 1/5 ...For some major unexpected news....

it is getting hard to explain to me how i trade now adays....bcz slowly ia m not sure what i will do when the trade comes i have general idea but i throw it out of window and work right there some time...what i am kinda getting sure is...most of time u grudge along and make some pennies...some day u fight ur ass off and once in a while there is a windfall...



V
  • #43,087
  • Sep 24, 2013 2:14pm Sep 24, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting fti
this whats happening now. market maker 1.3500/1.3550 retail 1.35125/1.35135 retail trader: buy 10 done. confirm you bought 10 at 1,35135 retail next price 1.35001/1.35022 now you know why prices just jerks? regards
Hello FTI
You know it is strange . Spreads Like that i saw only on major news.
I have 3 pips spread at max
How do you see it ? You always look on the market watch window ?
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #43,088
  • Edited Sep 25, 2013 1:17am Sep 24, 2013 2:26pm | Edited Sep 25, 2013 1:17am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} Hello FTI You know it is strange . Spreads Like that i saw only on major news. I have 3 pips spread at max How do you see it ? You always look on the market watch window ?
you not understand.
i am talking about risk management.
you are talking about brokerage spreads.

we on different pages.
read again carefully. i am talking about risk spreads and you are thinking price spreads.

var is talking about line/exposure risk. Is about money management.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_at_risk

regards
  • #43,089
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:55pm Sep 24, 2013 3:55pm
Inserted Video
  • #43,090
  • Sep 25, 2013 12:01am Sep 25, 2013 12:01am
FTI..

Thank you for this thread..

Me know with or without my thanks you will keep posting.. keep sharing.. right view.. right mindset of trading..
Benefit, not only this days, maybe next 10 or 100 years.. (unless FF closed down)

Me are just one of many less experienced trader..
Which confidently start idea of gaining profit 10^33 in years using linear attack on point figure..
but when put into action:
moving from real account to demo again..
and start learning the basic trading: support resistance.. trendline.. elliot..
then me found this thread from generous google

Me read first hundreds of pages..
then continue with "fti teaching(updated).doc"
He who summarized is generous..

Me ponder of your teaching
After reviewing journals..
find weakness of my way of trading:
Damage control, recovery action.
Which then me realized, good and bad trader depend on this
Now, me like your saying of square up.. of square down..
Me find it best for damage control and get benefit on book

While you take no benefit from all of this
Need no more profit for living.. nor name for job..
Already enough..

Me pray for your healthy living
Peaceful life and after life..

Sincere,
GMT+7

Note:
Me feel sorry for bad words..

re-share link:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...53077864,d.Yms

Quote
never allow good position turn bad
fibo spiral rescue
linear constant attack
Sincerely,
  • #43,091
  • Sep 25, 2013 1:14am Sep 25, 2013 1:14am
interesting blog. Discipline training. This interesting as it concerns opposite sex.

http://chinesemartialstudies.com/201...e-perspective/

regards
  • #43,092
  • Edited 1:49am Sep 25, 2013 1:21am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting fti
{quote} you not understand. i am talking about risk management. you are talking about brokerage spreads. we on different pages. read again carefully. i am talking about risk spreads and you are thinking price spreads. var is talking about line/exposure risk. Is about money management. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_at_risk regards
i had been thinking.
this not going benefit retail trading.
retail traders not going understand this posting.
since 2013, i believe, Corp traders probably already knows and have made necessary adjustments to their mm.
only that it is done secretly.

For retails is not going do anything, as most are already overrisked.
only i likw sound warning of the pricing model so that my friends may be aware.
leverage is a very dangerous thing if is not well managed.
so rule of thumb is set your leverage to less than double digit, same as inflation , when reaches double digit, becomes very difficult manage.
any one up to 3 level skews of base skew is playing with dangerous weapons. And should not attempt to do so unless is foreign cap attacks.
or in death battle situation. come 50% account draw possibilities is death battle.

so if one unable understand the above posting is nothing bad.
Is just book had not reach size that requires professional risk managing.


regards

Also thinking about the corp traders that may come on thread.
they must be aware that what is given here may be difficult for some follow.
Different corp have different risk cultures.
So some of my best practises may not blend well into their culture.
When working for bosses, is advantages have perspective thats complimentary with the boss.
otherwise may be lots friction, if not personality clashes.
anyway corps spend big bucks training their men, so no waste that, make good use of that.
  • #43,093
  • Sep 25, 2013 1:47am Sep 25, 2013 1:47am
Quoting fti
{quote} i had been thinking. this not going benefit retail trading. retail traders not going understand this posting. since 2013, i believe, Corp traders probably already knows and have made necessary adjustments to their mm. only that it is done secretly. For retails is not going do anything, as most are already overrisked. only i likw sound warning of the pricing model so that my friends may be aware. leverage is a very dangerous thing if is not well managed. so rule of thumb is set your leverage to less than double digit, same as inflation ,...
FTI thanks for Clarification.
You know where i live if we not understand we say "for me it is like Chinese"
I think when you say on a word wide place it can be misunderstood
So when i tryed to read your Wikipedia link although it is in English (which is not my native language) it here for me like chinese
in a meaning of understanding ( i understand words but not their meaning together)
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #43,094
  • Edited 2:25am Sep 25, 2013 1:54am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} FTI thanks for Clarification. You know where i live if we not understand we say "for me it is like Chinese" I think when you say on a word wide place it can be misunderstood So when i tryed to read your Wikipedia link although it is in English (which is not my native language) it here for me like chinese in a meaning of understanding ( i understand words but not their meaning together) regards Michael
ya i felt that, after thinking about your response.
is like teaching my dog maths. ,( no punt intended)
how can he understand?

for you i hope 1 day when you reach the curve, you get revisit the post.
for now is ok, you mostly not need that yet.
if you can understand , then you will see glimses of the retail market making business model.
if you understand, then you can readjust your mm, outsmart them.
but for small books is not easy impliment.

" i understand words but not their meaning together"
ya it happens.
even most read dao de jing also doing the same.
why you think no one reads the bible correctly.
now i gonna get stoned.
so i better put up my defence.
"let the one with no sin, cast the 1st stone." John 8:7
Thank you Jesus.



regards
  • #43,095
  • Sep 25, 2013 2:44am Sep 25, 2013 2:44am
Quoting fti
this whats happening now. market maker 1.3500/1.3550 retail 1.35125/1.35135 retail trader: buy 10 done. confirm you bought 10 at 1,35135 retail next price 1.35001/1.35022 now you know why prices just jerks? regards
So retail prices are within the market maker's prices?

retail customers go -> broker, who in turn can push orders -> market maker?

market maker 1.3500/.............................. /1.3550
...^
Broker
...v
retail ....................... 1.35125 / 1.35135

I see there is a 12.5 pip difference between the bid price of the MM and Retail.
There is a 36.5 pip difference between the ask price of the Retail and MM.
I know these are just examples.
So..
How does this work?
Broker quotes me Retail bid price: 1.35125, and I sell 10, while broker can get cheaper bid prices of 1.3500 from MM?

and, "retail trader: buy 10
done. confirm you bought 10 at 1.35135"
If broker pushes the buy off to the MM at 1.3550, then broker loses money?

"retail next price 1.35001/1.35022"
If retail trader sells his 10 to broker for 1.35001, broker can still pass it on to MM for 1.3500?

Of course, the size differences between retail->broker and broker->MM would be very, very different.

Am I getting this right? I'm just trying to understand the concept of market structure. These are just my first thoughts...
  • #43,096
  • Sep 25, 2013 2:48am Sep 25, 2013 2:48am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} So retail prices are within the market maker's prices? retail customers go -> broker, who in turn can push orders -> market maker? market maker 1.3500/.............................. /1.3550 ...^ Broker ...v retail ....................... 1.35125 / 1.35135 I see there is a 12.5 pip difference between the bid price of the MM and Retail. There is a 36.5 pip difference between the ask price of the Retail and MM. I know these are just examples. So.. How does this work? Broker quotes me Retail bid price: 1.35125, and I sell 10, while broker can...
the idea is there.
my example is on the wide.
i suspect under normal volatility should be shades about 3, 5 pips.
is not easy for human do this fine shades.
but for computers is a walk in the park.

but when volatility wilds up, the advantage minimises.
when market wilds up , they have additional arsanals.
is called market access denial aka requotes.


regards

Inserted Video
  • #43,097
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:09am Sep 25, 2013 3:09am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} So retail prices are within the market maker's prices? retail customers go -> broker, who in turn can push orders -> market maker? market maker 1.3500/.............................. /1.3550 ...^ Broker ...v retail ....................... 1.35125 / 1.35135 I see there is a 12.5 pip difference between the bid price of the MM and Retail. There is a 36.5 pip difference between the ask price of the Retail and MM. I know these are just examples. So.. How does this work? Broker quotes me Retail bid price: 1.35125, and I sell 10, while broker can get cheaper bid prices of 1.3500 from MM? and, "retail trader: buy 10 done. confirm you bought 10 at 1.35135" If broker pushes the buy off to the MM at 1.3550, then broker loses money? "retail next price 1.35001/1.35022" If retail trader sells his 10 to broker for 1.35001, broker can still pass it on to MM for 1.3500? Of course, the size differences between retail->broker and broker->MM would be very, very different. Am I getting this right? I'm just trying to understand the concept of market structure. These are just my first thoughts...
Nope, I was wrong. It's more complicated than that.. I will be back when I regroup my thoughts. lol
  • #43,098
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:24am Sep 25, 2013 3:24am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} Nope, I was wrong. It's more complicated than that.. I will be back when I regroup my thoughts. lol
lets see if i can help.
spot 1.3512/14 spots(normally priced spreads 2 pips on most active major. other majors between 5 pips to 10 pips spreads.)
if retail quote 1.35125/??? and you sell 1.35125 for 10.
then broker mm is long 10 at 1.35125, yes?
so where make next price?
guess.
spot is still 1.3512/14
  • #43,099
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:31am Sep 25, 2013 3:31am
Quoting fti
{quote} lets see if i can help. spot 1.3512/14 spots(normally priced spreads 2 pips on most active major. other majors between 5 pips to 10 pips spreads.) if retail quote 1.35125/??? and you sell 1.35125 for 10. then broker mm is long 10 at 1.35125, yes? so where make next price? guess. spot is still 1.3512/14
ok, please give me a few minutes to type up a response
  • #43,100
  • Edited 4:05am Sep 25, 2013 3:32am | Edited 4:05am
whats taking you so long?
1.35128/140. lor

if he makes 1.35120/130 then must be when you selling his 1.35125, some one bought his offer lor.
and the size taken was bigger than yours lor. other wise the price he made for you would remain same waiting you/someone be piggish(mm makes spread pips).

just remember interbank spot price indicative is normally 10 pips spread on reuters asap page.
so markets can be anywhere within that spread.
but from interbro, you should be able know which side the shade.
and which regional sector shading which side.

example,
if is tokyo time zone, how will a dealer in ny shade better than tokyo, when he in graveyard shift and all the liquidity and orders are piled in tokyo?
vice versa.
understand?
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