Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 142 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,821
  • Sep 24, 2013 10:13am Sep 24, 2013 10:13am
Hello guys i post my analysis on Dow...i saw that price came to a daily original demand zone...
so i think its a good opportunity to buy Dow but now for long term position!!
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  • #2,822
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:21pm Sep 24, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting Kaloko
Hello guys i post my analysis on Dow...i saw that price came to a daily original demand zone... so i think its a good opportunity to buy Dow but now for long term position!! {image}
nice analysis kaloko, i am taking into account this.
  • #2,823
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:03pm Sep 24, 2013 3:03pm
Here is setup on AUDJPY that I am looking at.

Weekly shows price has taken out 2 supply levels.

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Daily shows nice rally with supply being violated. The 91.29 level just under a gap interests me as it is original and fresh on daily.

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H4 chart shows original and fresh level at 91.06/90.61 which looks good for set and forget entry and gets a score of 9 so I'll give it a try.

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If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,824
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:23pm Sep 24, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting outapips
Here is setup on AUDJPY that I am looking at. Weekly shows price has taken out 2 supply levels. {image} Daily shows nice rally with supply being violated. The 91.29 level just under a gap interests me as it is original and fresh on daily. {image} H4 chart shows original and fresh level at 91.06/90.61 which looks good for set and forget entry and gets a score of 9 so I'll give it a try. {image}
good evening all
can i ask you if you use an indicator that shows or draws the previous taken area(demand or supply)
thank you
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,825
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:41pm Sep 24, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting bzzz
{quote} good evening all can i ask you if you use an indicator that shows or draws the previous taken area(demand or supply) thank you
Hi bzzz, I don't understand what you mean about previous taken area. I use the rectangle reader from post #1 and draw rectangles manually.
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,826
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:59pm Sep 24, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting outapips
{quote} Hi bzzz, I don't understand what you mean about previous taken area. I use the rectangle reader from post #1 and draw rectangles manually.
i mean if you didn't notice in real time that an area has been taken,how do you know it?because once it is taken it is not drawn anymore
thank you
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,827
  • Sep 24, 2013 4:41pm Sep 24, 2013 4:41pm
Quoting bzzz
{quote} i mean if you didn't notice in real time that an area has been taken,how do you know it?because once it is taken it is not drawn anymore thank you
If you are using the SupDem indicator then they are redrawn automatically and disappear as new bars form.

However, you can always draw a rectangle manually to see what it looked like.

Hope that helps.
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,828
  • Sep 24, 2013 4:49pm Sep 24, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting outapips
Here is setup on AUDJPY that I am looking at. Weekly shows price has taken out 2 supply levels. {image} Daily shows nice rally with supply being violated. The 91.29 level just under a gap interests me as it is original and fresh on daily. {image} H4 chart shows original and fresh level at 91.06/90.61 which looks good for set and forget entry and gets a score of 9 so I'll give it a try. {image}

Hi Outapips, I had almost the same analysis except that my broker shows the demand level on D1 as a reaction to the CP below so I was looking to trade the fresh zone after it bounces rather than the S&F on the fresh & original...damn decentralized market
Regards, Greg
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  • #2,829
  • Sep 24, 2013 5:30pm Sep 24, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting outapips
{quote} If you are using the SupDem indicator then they are redrawn automatically and disappear as new bars form. However, you can always draw a rectangle manually to see what it looked like. Hope that helps.
thank you sir
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,830
  • Sep 24, 2013 7:03pm Sep 24, 2013 7:03pm
Hi to Everyone,

I guess this could be my first posting on forexfactory at all. Actually I come from the banking industry and started there as trader for a bank but then I got lost in company management stuff for endless years until I dropped out.

After that I spent almost a year to revaluate my former technical trading approaches and looking around what else the trader furnishing industry offers. Based on my experience I liked very much Steve Patterson´s point of view about the markets (he held some webinars on FXstreet).
http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contributors/authors/author.aspx?id=187d620d-f8a1-4e0d-a7f2-b7d81727de2e

And then I started to study Sam Seiden´s approach to analyse the markets. But the only thing which was missing for me (at least based on the free material I had), was a structured setup of rules to mechanically trade in these S/D zones. And finally I discovered this absolutely great thread about two weeks ago...

And the methodology which was introduced here in his thread by Alfonso is exactly the missing link: a setup of rational rules to anaylse and trade a market! The perfect way to start with and learn how to get used to it by sharing experiences within this thread.

Therfore great thanks to you, Alfonso, for sharing your knowledge. I can imagine how much work it was to do your research and development of these trading rules and explain your approach in awesome videos.

So, I really would like to join you all in this thread and do my best to become of some help...

The first trade I made in H4 and hopefully according to the rules was a short position in GBPUSD last week when I noticed that the market had reached the weekly SL. Actually I wanted to ask whether you guys see this pair in a similar way (down in the direction of the weekly DL). And whether you would try to ride market as long as possible if you think you caught a good turning point or would you trade from one H4 level to the next within the trend?

Many thanks,

Franz

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  • #2,831
  • Sep 24, 2013 7:46pm Sep 24, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting Blackriver67
Hi to Everyone, I guess this could be my first posting on forexfactory at all. Actually I come from the banking industry and started there as trader for a bank but then I got lost in company management stuff for endless years until I dropped out. After that I spent almost a year to revaluate my former technical trading approaches and looking around what else the trader furnishing industry offers. Based on my experience I liked very much Steve Patterson´s point of view about the markets (he held some webinars on FXstreet). http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contributors/authors/author.aspx?id=187d620d-f8a1-4e0d-a7f2-b7d81727de2e...
Hi Franz,

Welcome to the thread. Without knowing your rationale for the trade its impossible to comment on it however I will give you my thoughts on how I planned this.

I had that GBPUSD short on my radar as it met all the set and forget rules (O&F, Score=9 etc) but unfortunately I forgot to place the pending order for the trade so missed that one. I don't think Alfonso took that trader either however he mentioned one of his friends took it.

Personally I always have my exit plan made out before entry so I don't chop and change depending on how things go after entry. I have several scenarios to choose from either have a set targets, partial exits or letting it run with a much longer term targets and having a very loose trailing stop. Whatever happens I accept the outcome and trade my plan.

My exit plan for this trade would have been to exit at predefined target at or near daily trend line. I wasn't going to let this run for a number of reasons however the main ones were a) daily trend line intact and quite a ways from price so profit margin very good to trend line, b) quite likely to have a significant bounce off trend line and c) although price hit weekly if you look left you will see significant trading in the area just above so price may continue up after testing daily trend line.

Peter
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,832
  • Sep 25, 2013 2:37am Sep 25, 2013 2:37am
Quoting panoramia
I am short on NZDCAD, we are high on both the D1 and WK curve. Price hit D1 supply area at the proximal like of a Weekly supply zone I was a bit late since I was not tracking this pair on my spreadsheetNow price is breaking lower and it looks like it could give us some H1 shorts on the way down. Price might want to distribute at the zone for some days maybe, or a reaction to some NZD or CAD news. We'll see what happens. If price retraces to the area weekly I will be looking for other shorts opportunities. I don't have good Monthly history, I just...
Target reached on NZDCAD short off D1 supply, from D1 supply to fresh and original D1 demand. There is not a good level to go long at at H4, so waiting for some confirmation if I decide to go long, it's bouncing of Weekly supply.. so will wait for that or the absorption of D1 demand to continue selling.


Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,833
  • Sep 25, 2013 2:41am Sep 25, 2013 2:41am
Good morning all
@Panoramia or anyone else who may knows the answer
referring to post1,how can one decide if a supply(demand) level is a reaction of a previous supply(demand) level
thank's in advance
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,834
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:13am Sep 25, 2013 3:13am
I am watching EURNZD to see if a short trade becomes valid at daily supply level.

On weekly price has made new lows below about 4 months of range trading so supply in control

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On daily we are approaching an original and fresh level after a prior demand level consumed.

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On H4 chart the daily zone has a compressed zone so I will wait for price to reach the top of the daily zone and will then wait for confirmation entry
There is plenty of room (about 450 pts) before next daily demand zone

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If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,835
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:53am Sep 25, 2013 3:53am
Quoting bzzz
Good morning all @Panoramia or anyone else who may knows the answer referring to post1,how can one decide if a supply(demand) level is a reaction of a previous supply(demand) level thank's in advance
Hi Bzzz!

It's all explained in post #1. If the highest high of a supply level has hit a previous supply level then it's a reaction. You also need to make multiple timeframe analysis to know if that new fresh level (reaction to a previous one) can be traded. It's all on post #1 and throughout the thread. It's difficult to explain it in a couple of sentences because you need to understand the concepts, multiple timeframe analysis and the rest. That will take you some time, it can't be faster sorry, it's how our minds work!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,836
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:59am Sep 25, 2013 3:59am
Quoting outapips
Here is setup on AUDJPY that I am looking at... H4 chart shows original and fresh level at 91.06/90.61 which looks good for set and forget entry and gets a score of 9 so I'll give it a try. {image}
Hi Peter, Would you also consider taking a long trade at the upper level around 91.84? On my feed it looks to be fresh and original and is within the lower part of the daily demand area.
Thanks,
Joe
  • #2,837
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:03am Sep 25, 2013 4:03am
Quoting outapips
I am watching EURNZD to see if a short trade becomes valid at daily supply level. On weekly price has made new lows below about 4 months of range trading so supply in control {image} On daily we are approaching an original and fresh level after a prior demand level consumed. {image} On H4 chart the daily zone has a compressed zone so I will wait for price to reach the top of the daily zone and will then wait for confirmation entry There is plenty of room (about 450 pts) before next daily demand zone {image}
Your analysis looks great to me Peter. I am looking at exactly the same thing on EURNZD. The H4 supply is compressed, there is no possibility to set and forget based on H4 since there are no good H4 levels to set a short at... let's see if that opportunity happens!

I missed an entry on GBPNZD H4 long yesterday afternoon by 0.5 pips! A nice H4 CP demand with lots of room to opposing supply! Crazy! It's rallied 200 pips now! Pity! Next one!


Thanks for pointing that out to others!
Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,838
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:09am Sep 25, 2013 4:09am
It looks like I've been triggered short on AUDNZD H4 supply at D1 proximal line supply

If this D1 supply does not work, I am gonna try the upper one at 1.1487, it confluences with a D1 descending trendline.
There are several month lows at the low of that rejection, these might hold and cause me a loss, but rules are rules.

Let's see if this one wants to work out!

Alfonso
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  • #2,839
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:30am Sep 25, 2013 4:30am
Quoting fortunateson
{quote} Hi Peter, Would you also consider taking a long trade at the upper level around 91.84? On my feed it looks to be fresh and original and is within the lower part of the daily demand area. Thanks, Joe
Hi Joe,

Yes, I am watching that level as well however on my feed it is not original so I will need a confirmation entry.

Peter
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,840
  • Sep 25, 2013 5:47am Sep 25, 2013 5:47am
Planning a short on NZDCHF H4 supply zone.

  1. Price is dropping from D1 supply for the second time
  2. H4 demand being absorbed, supply being respected
  3. Lots of room to opposing D1 demand

Let's see if this one is triggered and works!
Alfonso

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