Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 140 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,781
  • Sep 23, 2013 6:33am Sep 23, 2013 6:33am
Quoting UpComerFX
Hey. How does one take into account trading off the 1Hr? I'm assuming my 4Hr should be my trend TF where I see Supply in Control vs. Demand in Control to assess direction. The Daily should be my curve then, allowing me to know whether I should looking to sell or buy based on my location. Is this correct? I'm still drawing the Weekly Zones because I'm not sure of this yet but is should I keep the Weekly and used it as a secondary curve or something? I feel as if I'm at a disadvantage not knowing where Weekly zones are but I do prefer trading off...
"Hey. How does one take into account trading off the 1Hr? I'm assuming my 4Hr should be my trend TF where I see Supply in Control vs. Demand in Control to assess direction. The Daily should be my curve then, allowing me to know whether I should looking to sell or buy based on my location. Is this correct?"

Yes

"I'm still drawing the Weekly Zones because I'm not sure of this yet but is should I keep the Weekly and used it as a secondary curve or something? I feel as if I'm at a disadvantage not knowing where Weekly zones are but I do prefer trading off the 1Hr."

I draw the weekly and monthly zones when trading the 1hr entry as well as daily. I like to be aware of where higher Tf SD in control is. Higher Tf always comes first!

"Last question to clear things up. How essential are trend lines? I see them being used to decipher what side of the trend you should be on when, for example, the 4Hr and Daily are conflicting in direction. Could anyone clear up what procedures I should take when I have two conflicting directions?"

For the WK/D1/H4 combo use the daily as your trend direction. But if you want to go a bit more advanced be aware of trend on all higher TF. For the D1/H4/H1 combo use H4 as trend direction. But again it is nice to just be aware of the trend on higher tf so you can see what may be coming down the road.

All you need to know is:

Direction (Trending or not?)
Curve Altitude (At what % is price in the curve?)

IF and thats a big IF the direction and curve altitude correlate then you can move onto the point below.

Valid Levels/Entry and Exit (Levels that qualify according to the odds enhancers)

Then you can move onto decreasing your loosing percentage by looking into Average daily pips, not trading news days, trendlines, resistance/support etc. But stick to the three i mentioned first and foremost.

If you want me to elaborate on those three things then drop me a PM.

Nick
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #2,782
  • Edited 1:08pm Sep 23, 2013 10:19am | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} "Hey. How does one take into account trading off the 1Hr? I'm assuming my 4Hr should be my trend TF where I see Supply in Control vs. Demand in Control to assess direction. The Daily should be my curve then, allowing me to know whether I should looking to sell or buy based on my location. Is this correct?"...
Thanks for clearing that up! I can't PM you quite yet, I haven't been granted full membership.

Inserted Video



On his analysis at 1:31, he mentioned the Weekly Demand was being bounced off of. But Daily Supply was also just hit, which caused him to look for shorts off the 4Hr trend TF. What purpose did the weekly play in the decision to look for shorts?

From 4:00 - 5:00 minute mark, he shows the Daily descending off a Daily Supply. As he zooms into the 4Hr, he sees the descending trend line has been broken. This causes him to look for longs, only after the previous supplies have been absorbed. What I'm trying to figure out is the not exactly the rules, but more of an understanding of the thought process of these decisions. It seems the 4Hr really dictates all trade but the rules regarding trend lines throw me off.
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #2,783
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:16am Sep 23, 2013 11:16am
Quoting Black Fox
{quote} Hi Alfonso, are you still looking for higher TP on that silver trade or you are already out with 3:1 RR profit? BTW when I look at stacked D1 demand zones below if I wanted to go long at the middle level should use bigger padding for entry then on lower time frames, otherwise the trade wouldn't be triggered. What do you think?
Hi there!

My TP on silver are lower, I beleive my TP was right above previous D1 demand zone. I am still holding that trade at breakeven. I will not touch it, whatever happens happens. If it breaks those lows that are holding, perfect, if I get a breakeven perfect! As far as going long there are some D1 demand levels on top of levels, it's not an easy area to trade.

Still holding my eurbgp short on the D1 chart. We'll see what happens soon! Silver is protected now, EURGBP D1 short is not yet. We'll see!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,784
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:39am Sep 23, 2013 11:39am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi there! My TP on silver are lower, I beleive my TP was right above previous D1 demand zone. I am still holding that trade at breakeven. I will not touch it, whatever happens happens. If it breaks those lows that are holding, perfect, if I get a breakeven perfect! As far as going long there are some D1 demand levels on top of levels, it's not an easy area to trade. Still holding my eurbgp short on the D1 chart. We'll see what happens soon! Silver is protected now, EURGBP D1 short is not yet. We'll see! Alfonso
good afternoon all
there are a fresh demand area waiting at both H1 and D1,don't you think it is going to bounce from that area
thank you
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,785
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:48am Sep 23, 2013 11:48am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi there! My TP on silver are lower, I beleive my TP was right above previous D1 demand zone. I am still holding that trade at breakeven. I will not touch it, whatever happens happens. If it breaks those lows that are holding, perfect, if I get a breakeven perfect! As far as going long there are some D1 demand levels on top of levels, it's not an easy area to trade. Still holding my eurbgp short on the D1 chart. We'll see what happens soon! Silver is protected now, EURGBP D1 short is not yet. We'll see! Alfonso

hi panoramia thnx for sharing your ideas on how you look the market im learning a lot im just wondering why are some of your video not working anymore? is there anyway i can watch it
  • #2,786
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:13pm Sep 23, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting bzzz
{quote} good afternoon all there are a fresh demand area waiting at both H1 and D1,don't you think it is going to bounce from that area thank you
This is a D1 short based on higher timeframe curves, this is a position trade, not intraday SO I am not allowed to take a look at the timeframes lower than D1 in order to take any decisions.

  1. When I look at the Weekly chart, we're in sell mode
  2. When I look at the Monthly chart, we're also in sell mode, unless this drop is a fakeout. If so I will try to go short a bit higher at the next D1 supply area
  3. Price has a lot of room to drop, but we'll see
  4. If you look at my charts, I don't have the buttons to switch to TFs lower than D1

Hope that's clear!
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,787
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:18pm Sep 23, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting Forexbuster
{quote} hi panoramia thnx for sharing your ideas on how you look the market im learning a lot im just wondering why are some of your video not working anymore? is there anyway i can watch it
Thanks for your message, you are most welcome!

I guess you haven't read the whole thread yet. There were some "external" problems, and many of the videos were removed. I will be recording others in the future, the new YouTube channel on Post #1 has the link to the only videos available at the moment. Hope these help, there is a lot of information in them!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,788
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:27pm Sep 23, 2013 12:27pm
For the WK/D1/H4 combo use the daily as your trend direction. But if you want to go a bit more advanced be aware of trend on all higher TF. For the D1/H4/H1 combo use H4 as trend direction. But again it is nice to just be aware of the trend on higher tf so you can see what may be coming down the road. All you need to know is: Direction (Trending or not?) Curve Altitude (At what % is price in the curve?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi Nametaker,

From the above reply i also got the answer for my question. Thank you very much.
  • #2,789
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:57pm Sep 23, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting vijay14
For the WK/D1/H4 combo use the daily as your trend direction. But if you want to go a bit more advanced be aware of trend on all higher TF. For the D1/H4/H1 combo use H4 as trend direction. But again it is nice to just be aware of the trend on higher tf so you can see what may be coming down the road. All you need to know is: Direction (Trending or not?) Curve Altitude (At what % is price in the curve? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
No worries pal. Im just parroting what Alfonso teaches : )
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #2,790
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:15pm Sep 23, 2013 1:15pm
If anyone would like to Skype, that would help a lot. I believe in Supply/Demand but have't grasped this strategy yet. I feel as if I'm seeing contradictions in my understanding. I'd rather not clutter the thread with my questions so here's my name on Skype: Gyasi.marshall
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #2,791
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:18pm Sep 23, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting UpComerFX
If anyone would like to Skype, that would help a lot. I believe in Supply/Demand but have't grasped this strategy yet. I feel as if I'm seeing contradictions in my understanding. I'd rather not clutter the thread with my questions so here's my name on Skype: Gyasi.marshall
Hello there!

It takes time to understand any strategy and how things work. My advice is that you take your take, it won't happen in 2 weeks or 1 month, no matter how hard you try. But again, it's just my advice and recommendation.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,792
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:21pm Sep 23, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting UpComerFX
Hey. How does one take into account trading off the 1Hr? I'm assuming my 4Hr should be my trend TF where I see Supply in Control vs. Demand in Control to assess direction. The Daily should be my curve then, allowing me to know whether I should looking to sell or buy based on my location. Is this correct? I'm still drawing the Weekly Zones because I'm not sure of this yet but is should I keep the Weekly and used it as a secondary curve or something? I feel as if I'm at a disadvantage not knowing where Weekly zones are but I do prefer trading off...
The trendlines are used as a mechanical way to filter levels. Trendlines can be used on any timeframe. The higher the timeframe the bigger its weight and reliability. Don't you ever against a higher timeframe trendline when you are too close to it, it's just too low odds.

There are very strict rules as to what to do and where to do it, it's all on post #1 and videos. Like I said on my previous post addressed to you, if you don't understand it well, you will see contradictions. We're just having some odds on our side. It will take you time like I said. Many quit before realizing how powerful it's.. it's human nature, you know what I mean!

Take your time to understand it all, there is a lot of information on the thread, it will take you weeks if you are patient enough.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,793
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:27pm Sep 23, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting Nvrgvup
Hi Alfonso, I have a couple of questions for you or anyone else that might be able to help...I'm having a little trouble understanding trend lines. This is a buy limit trade I set up on NZDUSD H4. I realize that I am high in the curve right now on all 3 HTF's but if price comes back to my order then I will only be around 60% of the curve on all 3 mentioned TF's. I have 2 questions, first, is it ok to make this sort of entry? In other words is this a valid point of entry knowing that price will have to come back to a lower point in the curve in order...
Hi Greg!
As far as that NZDUSD H4 long, if price reaches your entry it will most likely have a full OHCL candle closed underneath the TL. If it drops fast it could be an entry. I am using TLs in order to filter my entries. IF that H4 demand area (I didn't check NZDUSD chart today) is at D1 demand area, then the TL is no longer valid. Once a Higher TF is reached the lower timeframe's Trendlines are negated, because at those HTF is where we expect price to bounce.

Hope that helps a bit!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,794
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:32pm Sep 23, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} "Last question to clear things up. How essential are trend lines? I see them being used to decipher what side of the trend you should be on when, for example, the 4Hr and Daily are conflicting in direction. Could anyone clear up what procedures I should take when I have two conflicting directions?" For the WK/D1/H4 combo use the daily as your trend direction. But if you want to go a bit more advanced be aware of trend on all higher TF. For the D1/H4/H1 combo use H4 as trend direction. But again it is nice to just be aware of the trend...
Hi Nick, I didn't see you mention anything about trendlines on the entry TF (H4 or H1 in the above question) and this is where I think I have my biggest problem. I see pullbacks/retracements setting up nicely and will place an order and then realize that it was wrong because I haven't drawn/analyzed the TL on that TF also. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't but, if I'm correct, I shouldn't be placing the order in the first place if a full candle has broken on the other side of the TL on the entry TF.
Thanks, Greg
  • #2,795
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:35pm Sep 23, 2013 1:35pm
Quoting vijay14
Dear Alfonso, Many many thanks for this thread and videos made by you. I used this stratergy in gold (demo only ), it was given 72,500/- with in 24 hours. But still i got one doubt regarding trendline drawing method. As per your strategy in 1st page trendline should be drawn in 4 hours for swing trading. But in your video ( suppply and demand webinar, trend trading like a robot ) you have used the trendlines in daily and 4 hours. As per my understanding you have drawn upward trendline in daily for trend identification and marked the demand areas...
Hi Vijay!

Trendlines can be drawn on any timeframe. The higher the TF the bigger its influence and realiability. Don't try to short against a D1 ascending trendline if price is too close to it. Why? It might possibly be just a correction on lower timeframes before price rallies again off D1 or higher timeframes.

Does it make sense to you?
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,796
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:39pm Sep 23, 2013 1:39pm
Hi guys can anyone tell me what post in this thread where you find the rules that tells you this is valid supply and this a valid demand ? thnx in adavance
  • #2,797
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:46pm Sep 23, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting M.4.x
Hi Alfonso Closed this USDCHF trade yesterday {image} Now low in the curve - is the lower fresh/original level on H4 valid for set and forget long? Many thanks again for your valuable input. {image}
Sorry for my delay answering you... been away for some days!

The Weekly demand level on USDCHF is used-up, it's not a level to set & forget. So if you wanted to buy, you need price to penetrate that level to the blank areas (unfilled areas of that WK demand) and wait for a confirmation.

There is no possibility for set & forget as per the rules on Post #1. If the WK demand was fresh then it would be the thing to do.


Hope that makes sense to you!
Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,798
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:48pm Sep 23, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting Forexbuster
Hi guys can anyone tell me what post in this thread where you find the rules that tells you this is valid supply and this a valid demand ? thnx in adavance
There is no post like that my friend!

A supply level is valid if a previous multiple timeframe analysis is done, same for a demand level. You first need to know how high or low you are in the higher timeframes curve, otherwise you will see levels everywhere and many will be losses.

You first need to understand Post #1 and how it all works, watch the videos and so on... it will take you quite some time! Again, there is no post like that on the thread, because it's not possible to have such a post, you need the analysis first.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,799
  • Sep 23, 2013 2:53pm Sep 23, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Sorry for my delay answering you... been away for some days! The Weekly demand level on USDCHF is used-up, it's not a level to set & forget. So if you wanted to buy, you need price to penetrate that level to the blank areas (unfilled areas of that WK demand) and wait for a confirmation. There is no possibility for set & forget as per the rules on Post #1. If the WK demand was fresh then it would be the thing to do. Hope that makes sense to you! Alfonso {image}

Thanks for the response Alfonso
  • #2,800
  • Edited 4:15pm Sep 23, 2013 3:30pm | Edited 4:15pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} This is a D1 short based on higher timeframe curves, this is a position trade, not intraday SO I am not allowed to take a look at the timeframes lower than D1 in order to take any decisions. When I look at the Weekly chart, we're in sell mode When I look at the Monthly chart, we're also in sell mode, unless this drop is a fakeout. If so I will try to go short a bit higher at the next D1 supply area Price has a lot of room to drop, but we'll see If you look at my charts, I don't have the buttons to switch to TFs lower than D1Hope that's clear!...
thank's for reply
so if i understand your decision to sell has been made on the fact that both of monthly and weekly are in a sell mode but what i don't get is the entry level,TP,SL
better be not enough salt than too much salt
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