Technical Analysis Fallacy

you want do it, do it.
you don't want do it, don't do it.
if it hurts yourself or someone , then don't do it.

will she be pragnant? i don't know.
will you be pragnant ?i don't know.
will it glow in the dark?i don't know.

you sound like a robot.
you mean to say once you get in you brain dead.
even gets married can divorce.

ya ya, if you miss the boat? if the boat too small? if the waves too big?
dang, put high fear the cats, put low fear the dogs.

ask you observe, respond and startegise for safe operating.
and you dealing with yur own insecurities instead?

Just so that you aware.
everytime you make decision trade.
you start with a loss.
everytime you trade, 1st thing, you lost the spread.



regards

true. sorry..

i will zip it.

no you not need zip it.
but please get the mind in good state.
this a battlefield, not a rosegarden tea party.

regards

May I ask if there is an inference we can draw from the U and inverted U that u have drawn on the chart ?

it just says that although you observed that they going hand in hand.
there are other factors affecting the behaviour.
try see if can find whats causing the behaviour and if it's persistant.
and adjust positions accordingly.

make sure you have robust mm and if you get caught in difficult situations that you must restrategise , get out of the mess.
if you caught them by their balls, then kill or be killed.

otherwise sit there and think about if thi , if that, if this and that..................is intended to be a punt.

observe, startegise, respond......observe , strategise respond.....................
regards

oh... I thought it was just a smile and a frown

dinner time..

don't agree with you here; I still think they'll have to taper, whether they like it or not. There's less deficit to monetize, so maths tells me they have to taper. Guess the BLS will just have to cook statistics more to provide reason and the debt limit should be resolved 1st, but still, they have to taper.

eur/gbp tries to break out under .84, fails at .835(and fails rather badly). Imho, you should watch the market like fti says, but should be careful where you look; for instance, right now, eur/gbp should be watched - there are lotsa holes in there. Also, all this year, it payed alot to carefully watch usd/jpy when trading usd/anything.

Sure you watch the majors, but sometimes action can be somewhere else; find where it is, see in the calendar what's coming, try to figure out how people are positioned(hint: German elections? Eur/gbp had a very nice run for shorts last 1.5 months and now folks reduce positions and take profits?). That's half of your equation. Regarding cable and fiber - which one is the indicator for usd strength/weakness this year; where were the big moves? Cable is for sure.

Shorter term: where are the stops? Sure not below 1.35, since e/u barely passed 1.35(people are dumb when placing stops, but... not that dumb; plus, it's a trendless currency for all of this year). How is the situation on cable? Still lotsa shorts last week in ctfc report, right(that means last tuesday)? They all got toasted, right? I mean, I was pretty close to toasted, and I restarted shorting at 1.593... They were creamed since last wednesday on the breakout with no significant dip to cover; they're all dead and buried by now.
So, who's gonna buy higher than? There are probably a gazillion sweating at 1.615 because they didn't manage to unload enough of their longs there(guess the market was very thin). Where will the dealer move? Move the market into the buy orders, right? Where are the buy orders? Etc...
There are probably me and 10 other monkeys who managed to slip a short at 1.615. Why would we be in a hurry to cover? Plus, how much do you think people were able to short? Peanuts probably.

Longer term: where is the weekly trendline up 2009 - 2013(that was broken start of this year)? Was it consistently retaken? What do you do when you hear about a "recovery" in a developed economy? You short it, right? You can do that for years to come and still make money. And you'd better do it, since making money in the real economy is getting harder and harder(or, at least, sure is for me) and noone seems in a hurry to fix the real structural problems regarding employment and adapt to the paradigm of automation; only the rich get richer and sheep suck it up.

frankly , now i not care if he topee or no topee.

buy orders huh?
i think will be muchinterest at 1.47
but is going be a bitch get there.
so meanwhile we all go sleep?


regards

yes, I'll claim I've sold the top and go to sleep for 1 year

I'll be a "long term investor"; gotta love those, right?

need find nice box first.

maybe thats what the monkey sees.
but only that he not know thats is a mirage of possibilities.
anyway, he knows not any other directions.
so the titanic head straght into the iceberg.
maybe he not know how stir or he not authority.
anyway they built the strongest ship. Just speed it up. may crush the iceberg.
what can happen?

anyway he's retiring soon. when it hits iceberg , is not his watch anymore.
Good luck.

regards

which reminds me.
One of the treasury was supposed took over in 82.
Took a look at the Balance sheet, every thing looked normal.
then ran deep under the carpet.
and i saw OMF what the fish they had hidden.
mark the books to market and will be holoocast.
anyway, thats another story.
Anyway i declined that position.ran like the wind was kicking my donkey. maybe goat, scapegoat.
tier peeps will know their name. they no longer exist after 92/1996 merger

Meet 98 year old Dobri Dobrev, a man who lost his hearing in the second world war. Every day he walks 10 kilometers from his village in his homemade clothes and shoes to the city of Sofia, where he spends the day begging for money.
Though a well known fixture around several of the city’s churches, known for his prostrations of thanks to all donors, it was only recently discovered that he has donated every penny he has collected — over 40,000 euros — towards the restoration of decaying Bulgarian monasteries and the utility bills of orphanages, living instead off his monthly state pension of 80 euros.



http://thenigeriatoday.net/meet-98-y...-dobri-dobrev/

FTI, doesn't the thrust and the speed of the thrust after the FOMC meeting indicate further thrusting action in Eur and GBP??

sorry i not around.
my sister & families came visiting for the festives.

no, the result of this past fomc is very unusual.
What i hearing was market was caught flat footed because many peeps expected that before the next change of chair in the fed, that it would be natural that heli would remove the unprecedented policys that he had constructed for economic sanity, so that the incoming can strategise that which he/she may deem fit to sustain the usd.
Many thought would be akin to the iron lady change of lead in uk and that the usd would benefit in similar way as benefited the cable.
If this information is accurate, would mean that what happened would be that many many would be caught to have to cut losses and therefore the thrust.
the retracement , next trade day , suggest that as well.
which means the thrust would had been stop loss driven.

It very difficult see whats ahead now , mostly foggy.
but heli's report suggest that they had not given any grounds for implimentation of tapering, as he calls it because of weak numbers in economic figs.
So in essence, would be best get a handle on upcoming economic figs, even to guess what terrain lies ahead.

Any form of bia of market possibility as at now, is mostly only bias , until the fog clears.

regards

for me personally, after the fomc decision , even i could not get meyself into the flow and instead went contrarian to flow.
But i was lucky that the nihon fig were weak the following day , afforded me a chance square at breakeven of my longs in usd/yen.

Now i am very cautious , of what to think.
Prefer try follow what the market feel is equilibrium.

generally , i alo have bias , because i believe the japanese MOF is having big challange in trying get the industries be competitive again.
esp now that they switched off nuclear energy. I believe they will incure some additional cost of production price hikes. And having need do this in a stalled worldwide economic conditions makes it very uphill task. Although i am very happy that they doing thi for the good of the jap population in the long run. i also do realise this is very uphill task that they facing. so i hoping they do not revert and switch the monster reactors back becaude of any economic impaddlements. (you know, is very difficult face the challanges, when neighbours are not in tune to behave similarly.)

But since the foggyness of the last fomc. I think i will let bias take back seat and watch if the fog lifts.

I am also much disappointed with my behaviour. Normally i always follow flow.
but this time i was uncontentiously bias.
and my trade fingers refuse follow my experience and skills. even mouth seems hesitate on orders.
so is good that i also take some time check myself. If i have sustain any brain damage, because this not the usual me modus operandi.

also i get strong feel the fed is trying devaluate, but i will not allow mind bias to set.
need try get my nimbleness upfront again.
So i keep mediating, let it all go.
evaluate every thing again as it unfolds, and get out of biased mind trade paralysis.

You are right.
Post FOMC price action was so strange.
Although no big moves in Euro to the downside. but the AUD/USD that so many times I refer to in order to get market bias dropped significantly.
which may mean further drop in the Euro.
but now with the german elections and the unprecedented win of Merkel.
What will happen?? I expect a gap , but in what direction , don't know but I hope to the upside!

and i am so happy for my sister. Her daughter is going to the bar. of corse need complete housemanship first.
Another warwick mulan.

expect nothing. i would say, expect the unexpected.

regards

make man out of you?

so many nice things this weekend of sept.
many happy days. nice , beautiful pic.
Congratulations on happy wedding.

regards