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Multi time frame Simple MACD system

  • #421
  • Edited 11:31am Sep 21, 2013 11:07am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting apfrezza
{quote} I would like to try your system that it seems to me interesting. I have also an idea on how to improve it a little bit... We could use the Fibonacci tool.
Hi apfrezza.

Very interesting, you are offering advice on how to improve a method you haven't even tried yet. Amazing.

1greyfox
Attached Image
  • #422
  • Sep 21, 2013 11:13am Sep 21, 2013 11:13am
Hi everyone.

I wanted to get the results posted here of 6 more pairs that I visually backtested before I leave for the day.

I should have added the last column to the very first group of pairs I tested, but I am not going back to redo them.

Here are the total results for the pairs tested contained in the images.

68 Total Setups

9 - Straddles of the Daily ma location(1200ema on 4 hour chart)
13 - Breakeven
3 - Daily ema too close as target(1200ema on 4 hour chart)
24 - Not Triggered
9 - Losers
9 - Wins
1 - Still would be open

1greyfox
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-21_More results 4Hour.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-21_More results_2 4Hour.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #423
  • Sep 21, 2013 12:58pm Sep 21, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting Baggi
The 1 hour multiMACD template seems to be off from the attached chart on the 1 hour. The second MACD indicator according to the chart is 48/104/36. The template is 48/312/36 Which is right?

Does anyone know which is the correct number for the 1 hour?

Is it 104 or 312?
  • #424
  • Sep 21, 2013 1:48pm Sep 21, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Does anyone know which is the correct number for the 1 hour? Is it 104 or 312?
Hi Baggi

The correct number is 104

You can find all the setting numbers on page 1 of the thread. garfield75 posted my chart with the correct settings for each time frame.

1greyfox
  • #425
  • Sep 21, 2013 4:39pm Sep 21, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting apfrezza
{quote} Hi Garfield, please believe me I was absolutely not critic about the system. I was only trying to understand what was that statistic on top of the page. If you say it is only a 1 week result, then I understand. I would like to try your system that it seems to me interesting. I have also an idea on how to improve it a little bit... We could use the Fibonacci tool. I mean the idea is when there is a triggered candle we can use a Fibonacci between the high of that candle and the low. Then we could have the stop loss at 0% and 2 take profit:...

Thanks. so instead of taking the orignal rule of the system on 1:1 target.
you recommend :-
We can use Fib level to put 2 targets, first target less than 1:1 and second target more than 1:1, which kind of gives the same return on equity (improves by 0.20%). Not sure if it's worth the effort to add another indicator and then manageing multple trades and targets etc.
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #426
  • Sep 21, 2013 5:01pm Sep 21, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting 1greyfox
Hi everyone. I wanted to get the results posted here of 6 more pairs that I visually backtested before I leave for the day. I should have added the last column to the very first group of pairs I tested, but I am not going back to redo them. Here are the total results for the pairs tested contained in the images. 68 Total Setups 9 - Straddles of the Daily ma location(1200ema on 4 hour chart) 13 - Breakeven 3 - Daily ema too close as target(1200ema on 4 hour chart) 24 - Not Triggered 9 - Losers 9 - Wins 1 - Still would be open 1greyfox {image} {image}...

Thanks greyfox for backtesting... I am assuming that's using ATR.
If you are upto some more back testing, then here are 4 pairs that I would like you to try.

  1. GBPAUD
  2. GBPCAD
  3. CHFJPY
  4. EURJPY

Cheers

Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #427
  • Edited Sep 22, 2013 6:56am Sep 21, 2013 7:20pm | Edited Sep 22, 2013 6:56am
Quoting garfield75
{quote} Thanks greyfox for backtesting... I am assuming that's using ATR. If you are upto some more back testing, then here are 4 pairs that I would like you to try. GBPAUD GBPCAD CHFJPY EURJPYCheers
Hi garfield75

No problem, I did the EUR/JPY in the first results post, but I'll redo it with the 'outcome of setup' added in.

Yes, I am using the testing method described by Mike, so if the ATR candle is larger than the Average Daily Range I then measure to see if the trade would have worked or not.

I should have it completed and posted before Sunday night market open.

Sunday night came early, it is still Saturday but I completed the testing on the 4 pairs your requested.

24 Total Setups

2 - Straddles of the Daily ma location(1200ema on 4 hour chart)
3 - Breakeven
2 - Daily ema too close as target(1200ema on 4 hour chart)
15 - Not Triggered
1 - Loser
1 - Win

1greyfox
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-21_results 4 pairs.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #428
  • Sep 21, 2013 11:56pm Sep 21, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting 1greyfox
{quote} Hi Baggi The correct number is 104 You can find all the setting numbers on page 1 of the thread. garfield75 posted my chart with the correct settings for each time frame. 1greyfox

I know 1greyfox, but in the new release program, or whatever it's called, that combines all three signals into one, the number changed.

Wasn't sure why.
  • #429
  • Sep 22, 2013 2:52am Sep 22, 2013 2:52am
By looking at all backtests you are posting, it seems the system is not profitable at all. With most of the cross pairs the results are close to breakeven...
Am I not understanding the tests?
  • #430
  • Sep 22, 2013 4:09am Sep 22, 2013 4:09am
Quoting 1greyfox
{quote} Hi garfield75 No problem, I did the EUR/JPY in the first results post, but I'll redo it with the 'outcome of setup' added in. Yes, I am using the testing method described by Mike, so if the ATR candle is larger than the Average Daily Range I then measure to see if the trade would have worked or not. I should have it completed and posted before Sunday night market open. Sunday night came early, it is still Saturday but I completed the testing on the 4 pairs your requested. 24 Total Setups 2 - Straddles of the Daily ma location(1200ema on...
Thank you good work greyfox,
seems maybe we could try to turn those 16 break even into partial wins move the be closer to tp so we get at least 25 % of profit , 16 break evens = 4 wins?
( please note this is probably a typical newbie suggestion now watch me get my ass kicked)
Orid
  • #431
  • Sep 22, 2013 4:19am Sep 22, 2013 4:19am
Quoting orid
{quote} Thank you good work greyfox, seems maybe we could try to turn those 16 break even into partial wins move the be closer to tp so we get at least 25 % of profit , 16 break evens = 4 wins? ( please note this is probably a typical newbie suggestion now watch me get my ass kicked) Orid

Not a good idea, in my opinion, anything less than 1:1 will put undue pressure on, when you face sting of losing trades...
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #432
  • Sep 22, 2013 5:55am Sep 22, 2013 5:55am
Quoting apfrezza
By looking at all backtests you are posting, it seems the system is not profitable at all. With most of the cross pairs the results are close to breakeven... Am I not understanding the tests?
Hi everyone,

I am still very interested in this strategy but my thoughts are the same. Maybe I don't understand but the originally system is Garfields with his parameters. So, please, I want to see the results only from Garfields on 4H without ATR or ADR or other indicators. No offense, I appreciate all the great adds in this topic, great work!

Thanks,
Luvene
Keep it simple without too many crappy indicators!
  • #433
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:02am Sep 22, 2013 6:02am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I know 1greyfox, but in the new release program, or whatever it's called, that combines all three signals into one, the number changed. Wasn't sure why.
Good morning Baggi.

When you use the MTF MACD Signal indicator, if you set the AutoParams to true it doesn't matter what numbers are showing in the boxes below, it will automatically adjust the settings internally for the time frame you switch the chart to.

If you set the AutoParams to false, then you need to manually fill in all the boxes below that to match the time frame you are putting the indicator on. Also, by setting it to manual, this will allow you to try different MACD settings which you may prefer over the ones this method was designed around. Of course if your start changing things you will not be following the method as outlined by garfield75 and your results will definitely be different.

Hopefully, I got you the answer I wasn't able to provide previously. If not, I'll try again, thanks for your patience Baggi.

1greyfox
  • #434
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:13am Sep 22, 2013 6:13am
Quoting apfrezza
By looking at all backtests you are posting, it seems the system is not profitable at all. With most of the cross pairs the results are close to breakeven... Am I not understanding the tests?
Hello apfrezza.

You obviously haven't read the thread, because if you did you would know exactly what the backtesting was checking for. PLEASE read and understand the thread and test it before you offer suggestions on improving it, or making a conclusion about this method not being profitable. In your own words, you clearly stated that 'YOU HAVEN"T TRIED IT YET....' . So, instead of voicing erroneous opinions based on a fantasy created in your mind, try actually trading this method and learn it and make a conclusion as to whether this method fits with your style as a trader. If it does, that is great. If it doesn't well at least you learned that this method isn't what you are wanting to use in your trading arsenal to earn money.

1greyfox
  • #435
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:37am Sep 22, 2013 6:37am
Quoting orid
{quote} Thank you good work greyfox, seems maybe we could try to turn those 16 break even into partial wins move the be closer to tp so we get at least 25 % of profit , 16 break evens = 4 wins? ( please note this is probably a typical newbie suggestion now watch me get my ass kicked) Orid
Hi orid.

I promise not to kick you too hard.

Each time we had a breakeven trade was because of price retracing back down to the entry level after the stop was moved to breakeven. When a single candle is larger than what the average daily movement is, it is telling you that the market has over-extended itself and needs to catch its breath(retrace). The filter that is being tested is to help remove the signal that is generated by one candles over-sized reaction to whatever caused it, hopefully preventing a setup that most likely won't work out profitably.

When you get a signal now, you take the trade and you get out at breakeven you are happy that you didn't lose on the trade. Right? Well, this filter will prevent you from entering a trade because of the candle size being bigger than the ADR most likely won't work to a 1:1 Risk/Reward. Also, why tie up your capital on trades that have a VERY VERY low of chance to win?

On the last two sets of results I posted, there were 92 trade setups, the wins and loses were equal, so you gained nothing from entering them. This filter would save you from entering 92 money tying up trades that could be used in better trading situations. The name of the game is capital preservation. This has to be the most important thing you can do as a trader.

Hopefully, I just nudged you and not kicked too hard.

1greyfox
  • #436
  • Edited 7:50am Sep 22, 2013 6:46am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting luvene
{quote} Hi everyone, I am still very interested in this strategy but my thoughts are the same. Maybe I don't understand but the originally system is Garfields with his parameters. So, please, I want to see the results only from Garfields on 4H without ATR or ADR or other indicators. No offense, I appreciate all the great adds in this topic, great work! Thanks, Luvene
Good morning luvene.

Please don't get sucked into what apfrezza posted, his thoughts and conclusions about this method aren't based on any fact, just his imagination.

If you read my post just above this one you may get a better understanding of why I am testing the ATR ADR. The results of this filter were to keep you out of 92 trades that had no gain in capital this year. That is 10 trades a month that you avoided exposing your money to for a low win probability trade.

As far I know, nothing else has changed and all the original rules are still the same as before. This filter is being tested only on the 4 hour charts as this was/is the original intent of the thread. So, it shouldn't affect you if you trade the smaller time frames. If my conclusion is incorrect, I am sure garfield75 will correct me.

Happy trading this week.

1greyfox
  • #437
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:52am Sep 22, 2013 6:52am
Quoting 1greyfox
{quote} Hi orid. I promise not to kick you too hard. Each time we had a breakeven trade was because of price retracing back down to the entry level after the stop was moved to breakeven. When a single candle is larger than what the average daily movement is, it is telling you that the market has over-extended itself and needs to catch its breath(retrace). The filter that is being tested is to help remove the signal that is generated by one candles over-sized reaction to whatever caused it, hopefully preventing a setup that most likely won't work...
no worries greyfox its just that some of those candles are quite large . but yes greed must not spoil the system good stuff
orid with sore ass
  • #438
  • Sep 22, 2013 7:02am Sep 22, 2013 7:02am
Quoting orid
{quote} no worries greyfox its just that some of those candles are quite large . but yes greed must not spoil the system good stuff orid with sore ass
Hi orid.

At least you are still speaking to me.

One other thing worth considering since you mentioned that some of the candles being quite large. Would you feel comfortable having to place a stop 200-300 pips away on a 4 hour chart? I know I wouldn't. Even if you risk only 1% percent of your account per trade you would need at least a $2000 account just to set stop at 200 pips away from entry in order to open the trade with 1 microlot.

1greyfox
  • #439
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:32am Sep 22, 2013 8:32am
Quoting 1greyfox
{quote} Hi orid. At least you are still speaking to me. One other thing worth considering since you mentioned that some of the candles being quite large. Would you feel comfortable having to place a stop 200-300 pips away on a 4 hour chart? I know I wouldn't. Even if you risk only 1% percent of your account per trade you would need at least a $2000 account just to set stop at 200 pips away from entry in order to open the trade with 1 microlot. 1greyfox
no way ! I get the ebe jeebies on a 30 pip stop and that's on a demo ha ha ,


Lesson learnt I will be quite
  • #440
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:44am Sep 22, 2013 8:44am
Quoting orid
{quote} no way ! I get the ebe jeebies on a 30 pip stop and that's on a demo ha ha , Lesson learnt I will be quite

Hi orid.

ebe jeebies! LOL! I haven't that phrase in years. I guess we are showing our age here.

Please don't be quiet. Afterall, the way we learn is by reading and asking questions. When I first started trading I had millions of questions(I still do), so we hope that one with more experience will share what they have learned with those who are new on this journey.

1greyfox
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