Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 137 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,721
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:38am Sep 20, 2013 1:38am
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Hi Alfonso, All the the reasons to go short are there, but looking at NZD against some other majors, it is high on quit some. Would you still say this trade has higher odds?
Hi Robert!

I just trade what I see on my charts, dealing with each particular pair as a unique entity, sometimes correlations don't work! $index correlation is key (it fails as well, but it's key). If you look at the EURNZD chart

H4 chart:

  1. There is nothing fresh and original that can stop EURNZD from dropping after absorbing previous demand and lows
  2. This is lowest low made the last day, and current price
  3. The D1 demand seen on the H4 chart is fresh and original right at the non-fresh H4 demand, so we can't set and forget on H4, not fresh

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D1 chart:

  1. Fresh supply CP that broken lower and took out D1 demand
  2. There is a original D1 demand CP which will probably make price react
  3. This D1 demand CP is against the D1 trend. We can't set & forget because of that reason, and because there is no fresh AND original H4 level within
  4. D1 fresh demand caused a nice imbalance. This is the only place I can see price could react, but since it's counter-trend on D1, we need a fresh and original level on H4, it's not availble so we can't set & forget
  5. Compressed demand on the D1, everything is a reaction to previous areas with those candle's tails

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Weekly chart:

  1. After breaking a support area, price is dropping lower. There is nothing to stop it till Monthly demand, very low around 1.5200
  2. We're reacting to last month low (red beads on W1 chart), hopefully it will be taken out

With this "objective" analysis, what would I like to do? SELL
The H4 supply I want to use respects the H4 TL, right at fresh D1 proximal supply area. So that's my entry for now. There are others a bit higher

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Hope it makes sense to you!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,722
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:42am Sep 20, 2013 1:42am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Anant, Thanks for your message and charts. Just a couple of things that I would like to add to your analysis, a warning. Even though the zones are fresh and originals on your entry timeframe, you need to take into account how high or low those zones area the curve, as well as being aware if price is bouncing off higher timeframe supplies. There are specific rules about that on Post #1. It's hard for me to do a proper analysis of your AUDUSD since you are using another platform, but the AUDUSD has been analyzed thoroughly on last webinars,...

Hi Alfonso, a quick question, it looks like price has already entered a weekly supply speedbump or is this not valid because the move did not take out demand as the monthly speedbump did?

Thanks for your clarification, Greg
  • #2,723
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:47am Sep 20, 2013 1:47am
Looking to short CADCHF on fresh CP supply.

As posted yesterday on the thread, I was looking for an opportunity to short CADCHF. Price did not retrace to the top H4 supply area, let's see if price wants to do it this time at the lower CP supply marked on the chart.

Happening as forseen, we're bouncing off a higher timeframe supply area, there were no entries above, too much trading on the area and no real good level. Now we have that level. Let's see

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,724
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:49am Sep 20, 2013 1:49am
Quoting Nvrgvup
{quote} Hi Alfonso, a quick question, it looks like price has already entered a weekly supply speedbump or is this not valid because the move did not take out demand as the monthly speedbump did? Thanks for your clarification, Greg
Yes, price has entered a Weekly supply on the AUDUSD. Now Monthly is competing against Weekly CP supply (using CP - continuation pattern instead of speedbump). The weekly area is too wicky, but it's an area. I am more inclined to buy on fresh and original levels of H4 demand. If you look at the D1, the supply is a bit higher, but compressed and non-fresh, but you never know!


That's what I see.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,725
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:51am Sep 20, 2013 1:51am
Hi I'm looking at these setups for today. There is CAD CPI news later though so that could be a cautionary factor. Comments are welcome!

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  • #2,726
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:52am Sep 20, 2013 1:52am
Quoting panoramia
Looking to short CADCHF on fresh CP supply. As posted yesterday on the thread, I was looking for an opportunity to short CADCHF. Price did not retrace to the top H4 supply area, let's see if price wants to do it this time at the lower CP supply marked on the chart. Happening as forseen, we're bouncing off a higher timeframe supply area, there were no entries above, too much trading on the area and no real good level. Now we have that level. Let's see Alfonso {image}
Haha 4 mins before I posted. Always comforting to know you're looking at the same setup
  • #2,727
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:52am Sep 20, 2013 1:52am
Quoting bobyv87
Hello Alfonso, What do you think about this? On h4 we have a new formed supply level which didn't take any demand but is formed in a daily fresh area. {image}

I missed this entry also but if I'm understanding the rules we need to wait for confirmation now. Either with descending trendline or new level of supply set after demand is taken out. Here is the rule from post #1:

"When higher timeframe area has already been retested. If the D1 supply zone has been retested, don't only wait for a brand new area of supply to be formed on your entry timeframe, but also wait for previous opposing entry timeframe demand to be absorbed. You don't want to trade a restested D1 supply area without that confirmation. You can do it but it's not higher odds, remember the first retest has always the higher odds of working out."

Hope I am understanding this correctly.
  • #2,728
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:19am Sep 20, 2013 2:19am
Quoting Nvrgvup
{quote} I missed this entry also but if I'm understanding the rules we need to wait for confirmation now. Either with descending trendline or new level of supply set after demand is taken out. Here is the rule from post #1: "When higher timeframe area has already been retested. If the D1 supply zone has been retested, don't only wait for a brand new area of supply to be formed on your entry timeframe, but also wait for previous opposing entry timeframe demand to be absorbed. You don't want to trade a restested D1 supply area without that confirmation....

Where is your daily unfresh area This is fresh for me!
  • #2,729
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:24am Sep 20, 2013 2:24am
Quoting Nvrgvup
{quote} I missed this entry also but if I'm understanding the rules we need to wait for confirmation now. Either with descending trendline or new level of supply set after demand is taken out. Here is the rule from post #1: "When higher timeframe area has already been retested. If the D1 supply zone has been retested, don't only wait for a brand new area of supply to be formed on your entry timeframe, but also wait for previous opposing entry timeframe demand to be absorbed. You don't want to trade a restested D1 supply area without that confirmation....
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Where is your daily unfresh area This is fresh for me!
Hi Nvrgvup
...took me a while to type in your alias...

I agree with Boby, where is that non-fresh D1 supply? D1 is fresh. I mean, the 1st pullback to the D1 GBPUSD fresh area is playing out now. I missed that one as well, it was a nice D1 fresh and original supply level for set and forget.


You are mixing up terms! D1 supply is fresh, first hit is working, that that not mean that it is no longer fresh. The levels forming on the way done are a direct result of that 1st retest. ANOTHER THING would be that price drops hundreds of pips, the level plays out and after some days or weeks price returns to this NOW not fresh area. Then we'd have to wait for confirmation. Any brand new level of supply being created at a fresh and original higher timeframe area is good to short.

Try to understand the concept. It's a D1 fresh when it was hit and that hit is working. In order to become non-fresh the entry has to work and drop away from the level absorbing new demand, etc. It has not done it yet, so it's fresh.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,730
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:27am Sep 20, 2013 2:27am
Quoting Myst1z
Hi I'm looking at these setups for today. There is CAD CPI news later though so that could be a cautionary factor. Comments are welcome! {image} {image} {image}

Hi Myst,

My thoughts on EURCAD. I would be a little cautious taking longs as we are high in the curve and coming from Monthly and Weekly supply so shorts should be higher probability. We recently made a new weekly low. Also, there has been a lot of trading just below where you are looking to go long.

I have marked on the chart where I have a monthly supply.

Peter

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If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,731
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:31am Sep 20, 2013 2:31am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Robert! I just trade what I see on my charts, dealing with each particular pair as a unique entity, sometimes correlations don't work! $index correlation is key (it fails as well, but it's key). If you look at the EURNZD chart H4 chart: There is nothing fresh and original that can stop EURNZD from dropping after absorbing previous demand and lows This is lowest low made the last day, and current price The D1 demand seen on the H4 chart is fresh and original right at the non-fresh H4 demand, so we can't set and forget on H4, not fresh{image}...
Hi Alfonso, thanks for the clear and extensive explanation.
  • #2,732
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:45am Sep 20, 2013 2:45am
Quoting panoramia
Looking to short CADCHF on fresh CP supply. As posted yesterday on the thread, I was looking for an opportunity to short CADCHF. Price did not retrace to the top H4 supply area, let's see if price wants to do it this time at the lower CP supply marked on the chart. Happening as forseen, we're bouncing off a higher timeframe supply area, there were no entries above, too much trading on the area and no real good level. Now we have that level. Let's see Alfonso {image}

Hi Alfonso,

I do not see tD1 demand area on your chart formed by a speed bump, its a level upon a level, is it not there in your candles?
I know it being a speed bump it is not high odds counter trend.
  • #2,733
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:48am Sep 20, 2013 2:48am
Did anyone else take the H4 supply on GBPCHF?
  • #2,734
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:51am Sep 20, 2013 2:51am
Quoting outapips
{quote} Hi Myst, My thoughts on EURCAD. I would be a little cautious taking longs as we are high in the curve and coming from Monthly and Weekly supply so shorts should be higher probability. We recently made a new weekly low. Also, there has been a lot of trading just below where you are looking to go long. I have marked on the chart where I have a monthly supply. Peter {image}
I have a sell running, see how we go,
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  • #2,735
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:54am Sep 20, 2013 2:54am
i need comments about usdcad chart , price bouncing from weekly fresh demand , i post that chart before. now i post 4hr chart, look in this 4hr chart price bouncing from 4hr nonfresh demand area with in weekly fresh demand .
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  • #2,736
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:03am Sep 20, 2013 3:03am
I looks like I got triggered short on my first 2 trades based on the D1/MONTHLY SD combo. I started to trade this account 1 week ago, but these are the first 2 triggers I've had.

I got triggered short on EURGBP D1 supply level and SILVER D1 CP supply.

My wiggle room for the D1 entries is 20 pips. The silver D1 supply was overshoot but my SL was not hit, so I am in that trade.
Let's see what happens on both trades!

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,737
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:07am Sep 20, 2013 3:07am
I have to take a flight in about 3 hours, so I won't be available till late. I am taking some days off, but I will be available to answer your messages via my laptop since even though I am way, I am trading almost every morning for a couple of hours to set my swing orders before I leave.


I am planning a new webinar for next week if my internet connection is good, will let you know about it.
Have a great Friday, hopefully with quite a few nice pips!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,738
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:27am Sep 20, 2013 3:27am
Quoting markot
{quote} Hi, Reacto. We all know that the master of this analysis is Alfonso, but i ll offer you my humble view. if u look on a daily chart of EUR/GBP, u ll see that price has some more room until it reaches fresh demand at 0.8300. If it does reach it, i ll cansel all my shorting position. On my H4 chart, currently, i m willing to sell near 0.8440-50 area which is not big risk for a potential of 70-80 pips- good RR . However, if the price first reaches daily demand , i ll cansel that short. Hope this helps, regards Marko {image} {image}
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Thanks for sharing your long term analysis Marko, GBP has been really strong lately. Right now price is at supply or close to supply in several pairs, so to take advantage of the 550 pips north, we need to see a solid break first, or a pull-back from current levels. EURGBP has broken demand on H4, so I want to go short, and according to the rules that shout be at the fresh level, but I'm hesitating (a big problem of mine) because we have come down quit q bit and have not seen much correction jet. What is your view on this? {image}


so far so good, but i ll see what to do since its friday.
  • #2,739
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:31am Sep 20, 2013 3:31am
Quoting panoramia
I have to take a flight in about 3 hours, so I won't be available till late. I am taking some days off, but I will be available to answer your messages via my laptop since even though I am way, I am trading almost every morning for a couple of hours to set my swing orders before I leave. I am planning a new webinar for next week if my internet connection is good, will let you know about it. Have a great Friday, hopefully with quite a few nice pips! Alfonso
Have a great time in all your endeavors Alfonso L8R
photize
  • #2,740
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:35am Sep 20, 2013 3:35am
Quoting markot
Hello all. I d like to share my idea about possible set up on GBP/CAD, as well as GBP/USD and USD/CAD . If u look at the chart GBP/CAD , u ll see that it broke long time high's and it has a cler road to almost 4 year old supply area( back in 2010,january). On a weekly chart, i can see a formation of a possible demand area, and about 550 pips free space to cover a long time gap in price. According to my analysis , the imbalance is around 1.7000 area. From that area, price droped preety hard for 1800 pips, so it is fair to expect at lest 1500 pips....
So far so good. Price is now retrasing for GBP/USD, as well as USD/CAD. On the weekly GBP/CAD i can now see demand in creation and hopefully right into our supply area around 1.7000 .... we will se what will happen.

Regards,
Marko
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