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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,981
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:31pm Sep 19, 2013 12:31pm
Quote
maybe if still have green pips, do someone favour, buy ophans some shoe or something.
or buy friends a drink. something get it off you.

guess I gotta buy lotsa stuff after getting out green in the last 20h. Going 3:1 levered long usd into fomc wasn't exactly smart I guess... It's the 2nd time this Ben monkey does it to me after sept. last year.

2 months of profits risked to show up with ~ 1 day profit, no sleep and I don't even have a position now(saved my cable short instead of buying usd/jpy). Those extreme rescues clearly don't become easier with time...

and I still don't understand what they want. There's less deficit... what the heck do they want?! Corner the bond market?! Less deficit = reduce qe, it's not rocket science...

This guy is truly dumb; I bet that, even at home, all he does is print stuff. It's the only thing he knows. And as replacement we're offered Yellen...

anyway, I was reminded a very important lesson: timing and patience. Since '11 I've been shorting aud considering China economic reports to be absolute bs(anyone who lived in an ex communist country would've thought the same). I've sold at 1.058 till I got blue. Gave up end of last year... than Druckenmiller comes saying he doesn't like aud and it drops 15% in the next 3 months(and laughably I make most money in those 3 months being long aud). Now I risked a ton to save a short aud...

I had a limit order short cable at 1.582 with profit at 1.5765 for 1+ months. I go on holidays, cancel all out of market orders; I don't put it back when I return. I open comp. one morning to see that my trade would've make profit in 1 hour(pretty obvious, really). I get pissed and started shorting cable, despite not feeling like(don't get me wrong, I still think there's only hot air below it and it'd be hard for me to go long on it, but... I knew it wasn't the time to short). At least I had the brains to use small positions and close at 0 profit, reopen higher... I was looking at the screen last night at 1.616 on the 2nd impulse and I was like... "heh, finally this thing topped, I'll even make some money". It took less than 1 minute; it was like... crystal clear.

Sure, you could say that, if I didn't had the scout out for one week and I wasn't 100% in sync with the market, I couldn't have possibly know. But I remember reading a week ago an article about how it'd go 1st to 1.615 and not 1.576(not the usual bs analysis, the guy knew what he was talking about); and agreein' 100% with what I was reading. I'll probably make less on the downmove than I would've done on the up move since I'm tired; and all that after sweatin' for 20h and risking a ton. All that because I didn't make 65 lousy pips a week ago... We're humans; letting go it's damn hard...
  • #42,982
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:00pm Sep 19, 2013 3:00pm
Guys I need your advice I am again in some virtual trading competition, 1st prize is sony xperia tablet. Competition is 10 trading days long and I have now 74.1% profit after 4 days. Should I go and take more risks, or should I stop trading and wait for final result. All best

P.S Its mentally killing me all this desire, and when trades go bad, so I am just angry on myself, and dream about my past account value. I am always 100% of expousure so 10 pips means a lot. But than there are other dozens of kamikazes like me, and I have no idea how they are doing I would really like to win this prize so I can sell it and buy myself cycle
  • #42,983
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:04pm Sep 19, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting fti
You are not ready.
FTI, among all the priceless advice you've given, this is the truth I needed to hear most. This disillusionment, what a relief! Finally an honest and concise assessment of my skills mark to now. I am like a street thug that tries to take on a Taiji Master in a heads on charge, bolstered by his posse's encouraging cheering. And again. And again!...

DC
  • #42,984
  • Edited 7:53pm Sep 19, 2013 7:24pm | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting snowly
{quote} guess I gotta buy lotsa stuff after getting out green in the last 20h. Going 3:1 levered long usd into fomc wasn't exactly smart I guess... It's the 2nd time this Ben monkey does it to me after sept. last year. 2 months of profits risked to show up with ~ 1 day profit, no sleep and I don't even have a position now(saved my cable short instead of buying usd/jpy). Those extreme rescues clearly don't become easier with time... and I still don't understand what they want. There's less deficit... what the heck do they want?! Corner the bond market?!...
ok, if you must know , this my take of the terrain.
the monkey you mentioned, he got no more tricks up his sleeves already. Anyway only trick he knows is print and throw out.
he came printed and threw lots money out from his heli. he keeps pumping spending and they all gone to panda in container loads.
he spent every one pensions already and paying nothing to savers.
he used up all his bullets already.
since now he in deep debt. he trying devalue and make what he owes becomes devalued, so that he no need pay much back.
everytime he have chance open mouth he will try all sorts tricks make devaluation.
is very clear all this new term of tapering is bs, just to sucker gamblers to buy usd so that he can clear stock and print more.
In real sense more like a criminal. steal, cheat and con schemes, only stuff left in arsonal.
Race to zero is already in full swing.
Panda is in the lead of the race. They remains price competitive and every one is going that way.
anyone open mouth to market, wants drive their currency down, try get a little ahead.
only reason to keep usd in portfolio is because want use that to benefit from the devaluation in other currency pair because they smarter than the monkey.
then buy up oil stockpiles.
soon some peeps will be experiencing galoping hyper inflation. all economies seems poised for economic hard landing. panda already knows and had reacted slow down economic activities. Growth is peaked already. Best direction they can go is focus develop their domestic growth.
you wait watch, us debt ceiling going get penetrated again.
If you buy usd , always buy against weak currency pair.
if one needs usd, borrow, its cheaper than buying it. is close to free cost of borrowing it already.

Why do you think whole world waiting buy the usd if the QE stops.
Don't you notice? Because the QE is and had been impairing growth, worldwide.

so unless you see good us economic figs, don't buy usd.
come every policy decisions. don't you dare touch the buy usd button.


regards
  • #42,985
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:47pm Sep 19, 2013 7:47pm
Quoting mijamoto
Guys I need your advice I am again in some virtual trading competition, 1st prize is sony xperia tablet. Competition is 10 trading days long and I have now 74.1% profit after 4 days. Should I go and take more risks, or should I stop trading and wait for final result. All best P.S Its mentally killing me all this desire, and when trades go bad, so I am just angry on myself, and dream about my past account value. I am always 100% of expousure so 10 pips means a lot. But than there are other dozens of kamikazes like me, and I have no idea how they...
mija, there's no way you can tell if you in the lead or not, unless you can see where the other horsees.
any way 74 % is good. Leak news out to other players that you 200% ahead. every day leak you added 20%.
force them punt. and sit on hand take risk that they should mostly screw up. Is competition right? wear them out, make them over exert.

regards
  • #42,986
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:00pm Sep 19, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting dropkick-cat
{quote} FTI, among all the priceless advice you've given, this is the truth I needed to hear most. This disillusionment, what a relief! Finally an honest and concise assessment of my skills mark to now. I am like a street thug that tries to take on a Taiji Master in a heads on charge, bolstered by his posse's encouraging cheering. And again. And again!... DC
ai ya, take your time, slowly learn how make it.
you will be ready 1 day. Just not today.

regards
  • #42,987
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:06pm Sep 19, 2013 8:06pm
Hi Fti!
I was just going to go short E/U and then I see....
Quoting fti
{quote} ok, don't you dare touch the buy usd button. regards

Just kidding!!!!
  • #42,988
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:09pm Sep 19, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting Jaro
Hi Fti! I was just going to go short E/U and then I see.... {quote} Just kidding!!!!
i said come policy events la.

The euro is quite smart this round.
But i actually waiting. Iron Lady too quiet yet.
cable taking lots pain.
I waiting see a response.
euro cables too deep already.
not expecting much meat in euros.

regards
  • #42,989
  • Edited 9:15pm Sep 19, 2013 8:10pm | Edited 9:15pm
Quoting fti
{quote} mija, there's no way you can tell if you in the lead or not, unless you can see where the other horsees. any way 74 % is good. Leak news out to other players that you 200% ahead. every day leak you added 20%. force them punt. and sit on hand take risk that they should mostly screw up. Is competition right? wear them out, make them over exert. regards
That should prove that you have previous experience in this field...
Is this tactic form AOW??? Oh, Yes I think so, something about General...
  • #42,990
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:13pm Sep 19, 2013 8:13pm
Quoting fti
{quote} i said come policy events la. The euro is quite smart this round. But i actually waiting. Iron Lady too quiet yet. taking lots pain. I waiting see a response. euro cables too deep already. not expecting much meat in euros. regards
Yes, I am waiting too... Very big move, need time to adjust to new terrain..
  • #42,991
  • Edited 8:46pm Sep 19, 2013 8:24pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting Jaro
{quote} Yes, I am waiting too... Very big move, need time to adjust to new terrain..
adjust quickly hor.
now the most important figs is the unemployment figs.
is very easy they get full employment figs.
Just create a war enlist everyone.
By the way his boss is coming to SE Asia. probably want sell some arms.
Every where they touch , war erupts. remember syria? Iraq? Afganistan? Korea? Vietnam?
Arm businessman. maybe he wants sell toasters?


regards
  • #42,992
  • Sep 20, 2013 12:32am Sep 20, 2013 12:32am
Quoting fti
{quote} Thank you very much , my friend. of course i can minum. everyday i minum much when i wake up.hehe regards
Haha! Of course you drink! Now i drink Kangen water, Malaysian water too toxic already, needs filtration, and funny the pipe is also connected to Singapore! Ahya, I often go to SG leh , just last week was there for 5 hours, then headed back to KL.
  • #42,993
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:15am Sep 20, 2013 1:15am
Quoting mijamoto
Guys I need your advice I am again in some virtual trading competition, 1st prize is sony xperia tablet. Competition is 10 trading days long and I have now 74.1% profit after 4 days. Should I go and take more risks, or should I stop trading and wait for final result. All best P.S Its mentally killing me all this desire, and when trades go bad, so I am just angry on myself, and dream about my past account value. I am always 100% of expousure so 10 pips means a lot. But than there are other dozens of kamikazes like me, and I have no idea how they...

Hi Mijamoto
You know i saw some competitions like that look on myfxbook under contests
you will see that results there are over a 1000% and much more
especially in virtual competitions .
So i think 74 it is relatively small
But good luck
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #42,994
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:34am Sep 20, 2013 2:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} ok, if you must know , this my take of the terrain. the monkey you mentioned, he got no more tricks up his sleeves alread
fti, do u really think ben is responsible for printing money.i don't believe so.he is an academic and was brought in with certain purpose by puppet master.he is just a tool whose aims are similar to real criminal who r behind him.asset purchase is just that,buying assets from poor people for free by printing money.in my view ultimately it is just a collection of interest on debt they had forced all the government to take under the guise of fiscal policy.u see all the world religions condemn interest taking is unlawful but the occultist got rid of the religion and make interest institutionalise promoting gamblers and speculator.the economic system it create is favourable to few creating a pyramid where value shift from the majority to minority few.if one look at the world one will be amaze how everyone is buried under debt lastly they even didn't spare ppl who don't have anything[subprime beggars].
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #42,995
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:54am Sep 20, 2013 3:54am
Hi fti,

I would dedicate my recently completed thread to you, although I think that it would be too forward of me to mention you anywhere in there, but I think that those who know, will make the connection.

So, I have been working on mindset for a while now... I know that young traders feel invincible, maybe sometimes they feel like they have to be ballsy, that they got something to prove... but I just want to improve.

Okay, so with my first lesson's homework done with, I do see the rest of the lessons laid out already. Thank you.

I am currently demoing, looking at the 3 kingdoms (or 4 kingdoms) relationships. I had a question but I will try to answer it myself.

I wanted to ask, when looking at the 3 kingdoms relationships, since they are not always abnormal, but sometimes one kingdom will give hints about another kingdom, but sometimes only within a short time frame (hourly), and I might not be looking at the markets at the time. So, my question would be, how often should I check on the markets?

My answer:
Of course, when I am in a trade I should constantly be there to babysit. But when I am not in a trade, maybe:
1. choose a set time period every day to look at the markets (say, 12 noon to 5pm)
2. check the markets for a few minutes every hour throughout the entire day to look for abnormalities
3. check the market randomly, hoping to spot when there is 3 kingdoms divergence

I think I should do both #1 and #2 and really treat forex as a full-time job now.

Oh, and thank you!
  • #42,996
  • Edited 5:33am Sep 20, 2013 4:44am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} fti, do u really think ben is responsible for printing money.i don't believe so.he is an academic and was brought in with certain purpose by puppet master.he is just a tool whose aims are similar to real criminal who r behind him.asset purchase is just that,buying assets from poor people for free by printing money.in my view ultimately it is just a collection of interest on debt they had forced all the government to take under the guise of fiscal policy.u see all the world religions condemn interest taking is unlawful but the occultist got...
I understand that being in medical profession, you would be most interested in medical journals.
but you should read a little about economics as well. only because economics and money affects living.

The Fed Reserve is responsible for monetary supply of the usd and they are the only ones allowed print it. Being Chairman of the Fed he is responsible.

When we talk about the debt and interest, its monetary policies.

When we talk about Banking, its about money, interest and fees. So if interest is unlawful, then from your perspective, any govt that have banks is unlawful govt.
Even Islamic Banking pays interest. Is a float rate interest system.

Subprime not means poor, it mean those who have no credit worthyness being given loans(debt). Is a credit risk rating.

regards
  • #42,997
  • Edited 5:12am Sep 20, 2013 4:53am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting 4tiger
Hi fti, I would dedicate my recently completed thread to you, although I think that it would be too forward of me to mention you anywhere in there, but I think that those who know, will make the connection. So, I have been working on mindset for a while now... I know that young traders feel invincible, maybe sometimes they feel like they have to be ballsy, that they got something to prove... but I just want to improve. Okay, so with my first lesson's homework done with, I do see the rest of the lessons laid out already. Thank you. I am currently...

3 kingdoms is not a system.
When you have time try read the historical novel.
Is not about system, is about relationships.
Infact during that time was more than 3 kingdoms,but the 3 were the majors.

Please ask your mom about babysiting. Or if you have anyone in family have a baby, try be responsible for it for 6 months. Understand what means babysit.
otherwise make 1.

And if you like, i point out 1 big mistake. I am not looking for divergence.
This sentence itself tells me you not understood of the thread.
I observing for behaviour, not divergence.

And just that you get your mind clear.
For a trader, Aside with no positions, is a position. The position i called squared.
If you permanently squared and will never again trade, then you have no position.

another thing is you will be forever trading forex. only not CFDs.
they day you have no more money, then you out of the forex markets.
even if you not trade forex you still trade domicile currency. And unless you buy only local goods you not involved in forex.


regards
  • #42,998
  • Sep 20, 2013 5:13am Sep 20, 2013 5:13am
Quoting fti
And if you like, i point out 1 big mistake. I am not looking for divergence. This sentence itself tells me you not understood of the thread. I observing for behaviour, not divergence.
Do you mind if I post two pictures? The second picture I circled, if that is what you mean by relationships:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3kingdoms2.png Size: 144 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3kingdoms1.png Size: 72 KB


I had a feeling when I spotted that, that it was what you were teaching.
Maybe it is divergence I don't understand
Sorry, I will call it behavior now.


Thank you for your reply.
  • #42,999
  • Sep 20, 2013 5:15am Sep 20, 2013 5:15am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} Do you mind if I post two pictures? The second picture I circled, if that is what you mean by relationships: {image} {image} I had a feeling when I spotted that, that it was what you were teaching. Maybe it is divergence I don't understand Sorry, I will call it behavior now. Thank you for your reply.
the relationship i can see is they holding hands walking in the park.
maybe they want get married.But they not compatable, have different behaviours when not dating.
but i need more charts tell if they will be mostly compatable.
They very compatable when they get excited.


regards
Attached Image
  • #43,000
  • Edited 5:50am Sep 20, 2013 5:35am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting fti
{quote} the relationship i can see is they holding hands walking in the park. maybe they want get married.But they not compatable, have different behaviours when not dating. regards
I just realized I circled the FOMC no-tapering announcement...

something happening right now, feels like they swapped dance partners. (I'm looking at more charts)

I should get in, get out quick, but if I miss that first boat... Will I be constantly biting the bullet in the beginning? Rescuing an attack seems like, a big job...

Quoting fti
3 kingdoms is not a system. When you have time try read the historical novel.
I will buy the book. Thanks!
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