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Economic Analysis VS Market Action

  • #41
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:33am Sep 18, 2013 4:33am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} if already price in then it only short squeeze for gold..but if taper happen long term still down....only if taper happen...huhu

I am holding a small short since yesterday, will likely close it out at the NYSE open

Lets see how things shape up tonight

I agree that we are technically bearish on Daily and Weekly

On the monthly, we can still drop down to ~$900 (78.6 fib) and remain in a bull market (technically)

This chart is from last week, it illustrates the point

There are some EW guys that expect gold to be at $200... I am not sure I agree with this view

Gold
Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Monthly 09.12.13.png Size: 36 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #42
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:24am Sep 18, 2013 5:24am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I am holding a small short since yesterday, will likely close it out at the NYSE open Lets see how things shape up tonight I agree that we are technically bearish on Daily and Weekly On the monthly, we can still drop down to ~$900 (78.6 fib) and remain in a bull market (technically) This chart is from last week, it illustrates the point There are some EW guys that expect gold to be at $200... I am not sure I agree with this view Gold Monthly {image}
yes...i agee with ur 61.8 retracement level.....since actually now it will test tahat level with FED annoucement as catalyst to see wether break or fail that 61.8 level.....that will spur to 1040-1000 if break...hehehe
Bismillah
  • #43
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:25pm Sep 18, 2013 2:25pm
so overall i can say...i erase my usd strengthen view ....and renew my usd weaken view as FED signal no taper.....since alot of breaking event that disturb the taper soon then..it is hard to say taper will come this year!
Bismillah
  • #44
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:40pm Sep 18, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting krunfx
{quote} yes...i agee with ur 61.8 retracement level.....since actually now it will test tahat level with FED annoucement as catalyst to see wether break or fail that 61.8 level.....that will spur to 1040-1000 if break...hehehe
Closed my short earlier for small gain +$10

Getting ready for short usd trades across the board (ex euro), with a focus on the commodity complex
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #45
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:44pm Sep 18, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Closed my short earlier for small gain +$10 Getting ready for short usd trades across the board (ex euro), with a focus on the commodity complex
since this friday is quadrupple witching....carry trader will open net short usd position...huhuuh
Bismillah
  • #46
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:50pm Sep 18, 2013 7:50pm
Ok after the fed decision,today lets look for the First look at how other central banks judged the Fed actions, with BoJ member Kiuchi speaking at 11:3GMT and Kuroda at 18:35GMT.....and also dont forget Quarterly SNB policy that im not expect much but who knows if SNB Jordan will be surprise today...huhu
Bismillah
  • #47
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:53am Sep 19, 2013 3:53am
Goldman Sees Risk of Gold Below $1,000 <-- is it still reliable amid fed do not want to taper yet ????...this forecast for me actually is true before this ..but after FED announcement,,i think is hard to say for that happen unless tapering really occur...huhu
Bismillah
  • #48
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:48am Sep 19, 2013 6:48am
so since tomorrow (FRIDAY) is quadrupple witching....of course after no tapering by fed more will net open short position for USD....only left big fundamental event for this week is GERMAN ELECTION.....the result will affect all european country and EURO DOLLAR MOVE!!!!
posible market movemen

if MERKEL team win=EURO BULLISH
If MERKEL tem defeat =EURO BEARISH

watching......!!!!!

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/50...tary-union.htm
Bismillah
  • #49
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:00am Sep 19, 2013 7:00am
Quoting krunfx
so since tomorrow (FRIDAY) is quadrupple witching....of course after no tapering by fed more will net open short position for USD....only left big fundamental event for this week is GERMAN ELECTION.....the result will affect all european country and EURO DOLLAR MOVE!!!! posible market movemen if MERKEL team win=EURO BULLISH If MERKEL tem defeat =EURO BEARISH watching......!!!!! http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/50...tary-union.htm
What is quadrupple witching?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #50
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:05am Sep 19, 2013 7:05am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} What is quadrupple witching?
Stock, index, stock index and options contracts all expire on the same day...

then Usually is volatile as traders look to get in or out of positions...

im expect volatile since we already have a FED few days before...
Bismillah
  • #51
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:11am Sep 19, 2013 7:11am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} Stock, index, stock index and options contracts all expire on the same day... then Usually is volatile as traders look to get in or out of positions... im expect volatile since we already have a FED few days before...

lol!

gotcha!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #52
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:15am Sep 19, 2013 7:15am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} lol! gotcha!
it only happen quarterly.....
Bismillah
  • #53
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:29am Sep 19, 2013 7:29am
Tomorrow is weekend, we have two red economical reports only, is there any chance EU go up 150 pips to cross weekly resistance ?
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  • #54
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:56pm Sep 19, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting SpikerTrader
Tomorrow is weekend, we have two red economical reports only, is there any chance EU go up 150 pips to cross weekly resistance ? {image} {image}
posible 60% because traders will wiat for MERKEL win or not in the election for further open post soon.
Bismillah
  • #55
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:56pm Sep 19, 2013 4:56pm
today we are study the behavior of yen.....first we know the dollar was weaken due to no #taper by #FED...it means more USD will be print..and of course USD will devalue ...but int he term of stocks and bond market the price will be surge...then it will spur risk appetite in bond(treasury) and stocks market around the world......one know japan has lower interest rate then carry trader will borrow yen with lower interest ate and invest in high yield currrency interest rate and of course it will unlikely at US because trader tend to like invest with highyer yield and with currency appreciate not depreciate...let say in new zealand and india or in malaysia....then more yen to sold....thats why yen more weaken to usd after tapering "day"-krunfx


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Bismillah
  • #56
  • Sep 19, 2013 5:07pm Sep 19, 2013 5:07pm
Do you have a reason why GBP/USD down today? I was expecting continuation of yesterdays move.
  • #57
  • Sep 19, 2013 5:13pm Sep 19, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting pbylina
Do you have a reason why GBP/USD down today? I was expecting continuation of yesterdays move.
1. IS FROM sluggish UK retail sale...
2.just retracement...

for me IM bullish for GBP long term
Bismillah
  • #58
  • Sep 19, 2013 5:14pm Sep 19, 2013 5:14pm
U can see the effect of Carry trade that i told u in my previous "reply"

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Bismillah
  • #59
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:12pm Sep 19, 2013 7:12pm
The #FOMC have just released an updated version of their forward guidance on rates..


so....this is it...hahaha


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Bismillah
  • #60
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:35pm Sep 19, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting krunfx
{quote} 1. IS FROM sluggish UK retail sale...
How come sometimes data is good and currency drops?
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