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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #8,961
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:10pm Sep 19, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting godim
{quote} Support is important here. {image}
and it seems to be holding so far.

Godim, your gann analysis on probabilities has been very valuable. Unfortunately for me I didn't give it a lot of importance and instead I allowed my dollar bullish bias to take over.

Keep posting
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,962
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:29pm Sep 19, 2013 1:29pm
Okay this is interesting. Could a top in cable be very near?
According to retail sentiment from fxcm, there has been a very significant shift
They are still net short, but yesterday is was at -4.10 and today it is at -2.08

Check out the shift in Swissy as well. That one is worrying. It means USD is potentially in real trouble
Interestingly, there has been no shift in Euro sentiment.


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.98 as 25% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -4.11; 20% of open positions were long. Long positions are 8.9% higher than yesterday and 4.0% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 21.1% lower than yesterday and 9.0% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 15.2% lower than yesterday and 4.5% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyFX - SSI- GBPJPY Short Interest Plunges, Limiting Enthusiasm on Fresh Longs.png Size: 188 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,963
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:42pm Sep 19, 2013 1:42pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...eruption-gains

I only say: the FED can not fight social mood

Long End Treasury Retraces 50% Of Taperuption Gains
  • #8,964
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:56pm Sep 19, 2013 1:56pm
Via Twitter from @Zerohedge

IMF'S LAGARDE SAYS FUND ANALYSIS OF U.S. ECONOMY PREDICTS TAPER AT END-2013. Or 2022... Whichever comes first

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,965
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:59pm Sep 19, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting infinitus
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...eruption-gains I only say: the FED can not fight social mood Long End Treasury Retraces 50% Of Taperuption Gains
Quote
We are going to need another un-Taper soon.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,966
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:12pm Sep 19, 2013 2:12pm



we a surrounded by morons with way to deep pockets - but wait - it is the tax-payers pocket
  • #8,967
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:39pm Sep 19, 2013 2:39pm
Igor Pak's counts

http://www.fxservice.com/analytics/w...mber-20th-2013
  • #8,968
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:52pm Sep 19, 2013 2:52pm
Quoting Mad Russian
my thinking according to what i see {image}
long at 9441 sl below todays low , oh FOR Milam this is aussie 15 min tf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_182.jpg Size: 35 KB
  • #8,969
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:54pm Sep 19, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting infinitus
Igor Pak's counts http://www.fxservice.com/analytics/w...mber-20th-2013
Does he not have alternate counts?
Those look quite biased towards strong USD

By the way, I fully support his view on Cable. It has reversal signs all over it. Even retail sentiment is flipping. Not for the Euro and Swissy though... or at least not yet.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,970
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:56pm Sep 19, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} and it seems to be holding so far. Godim, your gann analysis on probabilities has been very valuable. Unfortunately for me I didn't give it a lot of importance and instead I allowed my dollar bullish bias to take over. Keep posting
supports are meant to be broken......and if no substantial adverse US$ news r hitting the mrkts. this one may not hold for too long...reason being...I'm selling rallies
  • #8,971
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:12pm Sep 19, 2013 3:12pm
hi merry band of traders, hope all of you made good fruitfull juicy fortune today
  • #8,972
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:12pm Sep 19, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Delta, I think you already said it. Gold is a hedge for inflation or other risks. If the market finds itself on the wrong side of a trade and has to liquidate or is margin called, then they liquidate their gold hedges in order to cover their other losses. That's what a hedge is. In normal growth and prosperous economic times, gold rises and falls only based on its commercial value, but since this QE BS started in 2008, it has become a different story.
As you said time is changing for gold. Just got a hint following some links posted here

Physical Gold assets and Paper Gold assets are not the same and must be separated

because physical gold would rocket up to the sky and paper gold to the deep bottom end of the hinterlands.

Actually we don't really care about paper value, all we need is all up and down moves. But if only one single move, then better taking the wind right in the sails. The counter argument is rising value of physical means rising power of hypotecation or should we rather say re(re(re-hypotecation)³)³ to sustain the paper (free falling) value. (I used cube exponential because I have nothing greater on my keyboard.)

So as you said, it has really become another story.
  • #8,973
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:35pm Sep 19, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} supports are meant to be broken......and if no substantial adverse US$ news r hitting the mrkts. this one may not hold for too long...reason being...I'm selling rallies
I would be very happy with that because I already have a top in place for cable anyway.

See here>>>
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} ...I fully support his view on Cable. It has reversal signs all over it. Even retail sentiment is flipping. Not for the Euro and Swissy though... or at least not yet.
All I need to see now is a confirmed lower high & less retail crowd bearish sentiment and I'll be on it like white on rice
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,974
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:52pm Sep 19, 2013 3:52pm
Every single major sovereign bond rallied today with the biggest drop in yields seen in Greek Italian, Spanish and Mexican, but US treasuries slumped and the yields have almost reached yesterday's high levels again. US 10 year is at 2.75% and the 30Y is back up at 3.8%

Isn't this the complete opposite of what Bernanke wanted?
Nice going numbnuts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,975
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:53pm Sep 19, 2013 3:53pm
Good night all
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,976
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:11pm Sep 19, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I would be very happy with that because I already have a top in place for cable anyway. See here>>> {quote} All I need to see now is a confirmed lower high and I'll be on it like white on rice
I hear U..also eu daily may (emphasis on may) form some type of a bearish reversal pattern...although I come to find out that this patterns don't always hold up..especially in the euro... too many unknowns these days....
  • #8,977
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:12pm Sep 19, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Every single major sovereign bond rallied today with the biggest drop in yields seen in Greek Italian, Spanish and Mexican, but US treasuries slumped and the yields have almost reached yesterday's high levels again. US 10 year is at 2.75% and the 30Y is back up at 3.8% Isn't this the complete opposite of what Bernanke wanted? Nice going numbnuts
but the rate differential will eventually help the us$
  • #8,978
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:21pm Sep 19, 2013 4:21pm
Good morning, mix day for me, got stopped out GU long and my EA long has gained my risk I might close it soon or in the next hours or so....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,979
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:33pm Sep 19, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting milam
Good morning, mix day for me, got stopped out GU long and my EA long has gained my risk I might close it soon or in the next hours or so....
milam where ru located ?
  • #8,980
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:48pm Sep 19, 2013 4:48pm
Some spamer on EU thread: ffleo, Ali..., fxrustyspoon
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