Trading as I know it...

Ok I see what you mean now.. Cue next dodgey diagram.. One moment please

My post yesterday.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post6966241

chart 4h

cows to regain position.

Price Theory



*Disclaimer: Current sentiment is subject to change

(rofl.. Cows!... That's awesome =)

desire, to hear your experiences and people.

Yes you can share your thoughts about trading here and we are now waiting for this.

hi,
your thread resonated and echoed my own experience - I've not traded for about 18 months. I ended up a complete wreck. I gave it my all and couldn't do it. I'd slog away achieving mild success for months then blow it all to smithereens in days. Rinse and repeat, for years. I was constantly late to the party if I was your price theory diagram, I'd be in a pyramid sell when price inexplicably shot thro the roof. Twas a mind f**k and highlighted every single aspect of my seriously flawed personality, shit at MM - as my household finances will testify, shit at discipline and thick as mince. I worked so hard at it, this simple 'you to can be a millionaire in an hour and half a day' that I signed up for - became an all consuming beast that I spent 10 hrs a day on, plus weekend study. And the more I learned the less I knew. At the end all I knew for definite was I was the one that caused my 'accounts' demise - cos for every 50 times I got it right, twas the times I got it completely and utterly wrong that did me in - all plans, rules flew out the window.

As humans we are programmed to equate hard work with results (success) In Fx no such guarantee exists - All this BS about trend being your friend, etc. Crap. Trend was defo not my friend, trend was my worst nightmare, I only saw it in retrospect, like your aussie trade, I'd know the scenario, then second, third guess myself, price always stretched that bit beyond my stop loss - which by the end was bigger than my gains...As sure as F**k everytime I held onto a trade, old mother luck would snatch it right back - and then mind f**k you in opposite way as it floated to your original guesstimate, a day later and dollar shorter

I got a job too - nothing quite like a regular paycheck, interacting with people again - tho I'd love to come back to Fx, as it just seems so 'possible' an ideal lifestyle, if only I could change xyz about myself, or acquire xyz other bits of knowledge...

I waded thro various methods, and in my opinion not a lot work over time, change is part and parcel of Fx, tho it often takes a series of confidence busting losses while you realize what you have done with mild success for the last few months and are on roll, cracked it at last, etc, no longer works for now. Kinda has a way of showing quite comprehensively you are so not the boss!

Good luck, look at Petra's stamina

You must be Amyc's younger sister! Your raw honesty is much respected, g/l with it also.

Thanks for your post

Psychological Test
Here’s another tech situation I like to call the “Profit Taking Test”.. I guess it's a little bit like divergence


Preamble:
Have you ever been in a trade and have it shoot into a nice profit, the momentum having you feeling comfortable and happy to hold it. Only to see it move back to about 25% -30% against you faster than you can say wtf? You see this and still believe in better profits but just to be safe put your S/L at B/E. Free trade, you rock.

But as time wares on you get more and more anxious and emotionally involved in the trade. You start to wish that you took that nice profit figure you saw hours earlier and pray to the heavens that it doesn’t hit your B/E price. Well, you’re not the only one in the market thinking this way and other participants have more 0’s next to their profit figures.


The Profit Taking Test
As you can see in the chart the price broke long briefly on momentum pushing in new longs and buy stops along the way. But quickly snaps back under the high only to consolidate between the obvious S/L level and the High…

As time starts to outweigh previous momentum you can be sure that as soon as buyers see that previous profit figure on the high again they will be hitting the “take profit” option if the market returns to the high. This of course creates selling pressure on that high. Anticipating this action and mass psychology of the market you can see how price responds to it.

Does it:

A) Fall back on profit taking as it “should” or

B) Absorb the selling pressure due to overwhelming buy pressure.

Take your cue and trade accordingly. You can test the market in both directions this way, just looking for the thing that “should” have happened (Top figure in the chart) but DIDN’T (Bottom figure in the chart).

Hey CFX......... wut's up

My question is;
Do you trade in real time with a chart that looks like that ?

You can look for what "should" have happened and then be
amazed, dumbfounded...................

I don't want to test the market in both directions in that way and "look" for what might have been.

I want to take a position (when the time is right) and either get stopped or make a profit !!!


All the best, CFX

Regards
S0B

Slim... You made it!

Not anymore Slim Im trying to get my trading down to a formula to take all my sillyness out of it. So I've just recently actually developed a correlation strategy using Excel..

I know it's a discretionary way of looking at the market but this defenetly something I used to mess around with for sure.

Ive never really had a system, I like to complicate things. My philosophy has always been "If Slim buffet can do this then it probably won't work" lol So that philosophy didn't end up so good for me. I used to try and just READ the market and then trade I wouldn't recommend it.

I sense you are playing for a refund.. Not gonna happen Shady

(SOB)... "Son of B****"? Haha that what you mean..? Play nice Slim, you know my heart is fragile.

Never for a refund...
often for a loss......

don't listen to me

Don't try and psyche me.............
ain't gon'na happen

kapish ?

But you're still OK (seriously)
That doesn't mean I won't piss you off sometime later

Truly;
Slim (shady)?

Capich!
Good stuff Slim, but to answer your original question, no I dont trade with charts like that, I just whacked those up in "paint".

Data Trends and Expectation Analysis

This is an easy yet non discretionary way of viewing up coming and even past economic releases. Basically if you picture you're a fund manager invested in certain currencies, you will be following the economic news releases with interest. You may base part of your bias towards a certain currency based on the current economic climate of that currencies domestic economy or those that affect it. Makes sense.

Most people view economic releases in isolation. They look at the expected figure and maybe look for a deviation from that figure. Whilst in my belief this can in itself hold some significant merit in the markets response to the actual figure. Mostly when the release is quite a bit of a miss, I think more importantly is (and using the perspective of a fund manager) the actual trend of the release. Provided it is a significant factor in a managers decision making.

So for example as you see in the first release in the picture below, China figure came in above the expected number... The intraday market reacted to this and saw it as good for the AUD and so some buying of the AUD took place.. but if you look at the bigger picture you can clearly see that it was widely expected that the continuation of the up trend in this release would continue... Which it did.

The second chart in the image below shows an up coming release for the USD today, as you can hopefully see the markets expectations are set on a complete buckling of it's previous down trend, so ask yourself, how would one expect mangers who are positioned for this expected scenario to respond if the down trend continues?

The bottom chart shows the expectations News Home Sales also coming up today for the USD... In this case the market is expecting a slight retrace of the current down trend that this economic factor is in, but a number below the previous release would confirm a down trend..



Anyway hopefully someone finds this as interesting as I do. It a good way of putting things into perspective. I once wrote a cryptic post in someones thread here:
This is what I was talking about

An example of how to trade it apart from the obvious knee jerk reaction on the actual release would be to watch intra day for an unexpected number to reverse or confirm an expected data trend, and look for the market to "misprice" that re balancing.

Lets say the AUD/USD is a 100 the EUR/USD is also at 100. Aussie retail sales were expecting a retrace of an up trend but instead got a lower number than the previous release signalling a down trend in retail sales.

The Aussie should by rights become weaker than the EUR provided nothing significant has changed for the EUR. But for some reason along the way the EUR/USD is at 130 whilst the AUD is at 150.. The manager looking to re-balance their portfolio or speculate off the new retail trend would surely see this "mispricing' as a bargain.

Sometimes the market is not concerned about a particular economic release, particularly when there is something more important in the back ground or foreground. But an experienced trader up to speed with the market would usually know when this is the case..

You may take take clues on a chart like consolidation leading up to the release, or knowledge that big events upcoming that are all the market cares about. But most of the time someone out there will be watching the "high impact data" and someone out there should react.

Just another thought.. (I really didn't intend to get so in depth with this post but I feel I need to say).

In summary to the above paragraph... All the market is trying to work out is the eventual effect on interest rates whether that be through monetary policy or direct intervention or asset purchasing etc etc.. so if there is a cut in the making no one is going to care too much about consumer confidence. However if the central bank has indicated that their decision will be based on economic data then this is when the market will be looking at the data coming out.. Hopefully that is more clear.. I just realize that newer traders will be completely confused by half of the above.

worm, great, something new for me. thank you!!

Great... We're just getting started in here...

CORRECTION: Middle graph above should say "up trend BROKEN here
NOT: up trend "BROKER" here! what a tool, what a tool.

Hope the "cows" are behaving themselves not as "horny" as the bulls chuckle chuckle

( I've been dying to say that since last week)

Cindy - This is GOLD!

Pure OrderFlow! Do you know DarkStar by any chance?
I will read your posts a few time just to get it 100%.
Your efforts are appreciated

Stephen

million questions and still no proper answer
hang with a hangman

Now that was enlightening. But not as enlightening as the rest of the thread.

Thank you Cindy.