Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 134 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,661
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:23pm Sep 18, 2013 10:23pm
So I just made my first couple of S&D trades last night my time (Australian), and they initially seemed to be doing really well. I shorted the EURJPY and the CHFJPY about 20 hours ago from the time of writing. Unfortunately, I woke up this morning to see that everything had been stopped out and went to check the forex factory calendar and noticed there was an FOMC announcement at around the same time as my trades reversed against me - I'm assuming the FOMC news is the kind of news I should be avoiding while trading?

If so, how would you guys have done things differently to me in this exact situation? I can't post screenshots right now as I'm posting this from my phone but I can later on. I know Alfonso says in his videos to either set a closer SL or exit the position entirely in advance of the news (his preferred option), so is that possibly what I should have done? Or should I not have taken the trades in the first place? They did follow all of the rules of entry (trend line was broken, confirmation etc.).

I'll post some charts later if anyone wants to see them. Thanks in advance for the advice!

- Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #2,662
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:59am Sep 19, 2013 12:59am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Alas I forgot the news would hit Brent too, so took a loss on this and also on AUDNZD (Btw I noticed many setups have failed on this difficult pair, about to remove it from my tradable list ). FOMC has created new zones on many pairs and I was just scanning through for the best ones. Not sure if its just me but it seems most of the pairs are too high/low on the curve and near to opposing levels. Ended up with only 2 pairs for consideration besides the indices that you pointed out. Comments are welcome! {image} {image}
Hi Ivan!

I had a loss also on AUDNZD. I hadn't paid attention at the next days news, there was GDP for NZD, that caused that big drop and absorption of the demand area. We have D1 demand level on top of level, we need to wait lower for a new long, if any happens.

I also had a loss on GBPJPY short, that one didn't work but well that's life I just followed the rules, I can't win always! I still am in sell mode on GBPJPY, first try didn't work but if there are more, I will be short again.

As far as the BRENT is related, Brent is based on $US, so whatever affects the US like the FOMC, will most likely affect Brent as well.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,663
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:52am Sep 19, 2013 1:52am
We're reacting from WK/D1 supply on CADCHF.

  1. Descending H1 TL being respected
  2. Fresh H1 supply zone
  3. Last week low solidly broken
  4. Lots of room to HTF demand

Let's see if that H1 trade can work.
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,664
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:03am Sep 19, 2013 2:03am
Planning a short on EURNZD H4.

  1. Non-fresh D1 demand broken
  2. Brand new H4 supply area at new D1 supply
  3. Room to reach opposing D1 demand

Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,665
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:09am Sep 19, 2013 2:09am
Alfonso price now enter at USDCAD weekly fresh demand area. can we wait for a new demand label create at 4hour chart area for buy entry?
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  • #2,666
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:20am Sep 19, 2013 2:20am
Quoting ochinkumar
Alfonso price now enter at USDCAD weekly fresh demand area. can we wait for a new demand label create at 4hour chart area for buy entry? {image}
Yes Ochin! Wait for brand new areas of demand at that WK demand level!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,667
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:37am Sep 19, 2013 2:37am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Gaps are great, up or down. But you need to make a distinction between professional versus novice gaps. Professional gap: a gap away from higher timeframe's SD areas Novice gap: a gap into higher timeframe's SD areas. That, a gap buying into supply or a gap selling into demandIf you find a gap, your entry should be at the level above/below the gap. For a demand area, locate the level underneath. Trade always against the novice gaps! Hope that's clear! Alfonso
Nice tip thx :-)
Shame we don't have those like buttons under the posts.
Have a great day
Photize
  • #2,668
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:44am Sep 19, 2013 2:44am
Quoting panoramia
Planning a short on EURNZD H4. Non-fresh D1 demand broken Brand new H4 supply area at new D1 supply Room to reach opposing D1 demandAlfonso {image}
My Daily shows price is too low on the curve.
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  • #2,669
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:56am Sep 19, 2013 2:56am
Quoting Lou
{quote} My Daily shows price is too low on the curve. {image}
Hi Lou!
We're in the middle of WK/D1 right now. If price pulls back into my H4 zone, we'll be even higher in the curve.

D1 trend is bearish respecting supply and removing demand.
IF D1 fresh demand area (against the D1 trend as well), is hit then I will not trade that H4 short.


Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,670
  • Edited 3:13am Sep 19, 2013 2:57am | Edited 3:13am
good morning all
sorry i can not post any chart right now,but i can see that gbp/jpy entered an original fresh monthly supply area and the D1 just entered an original fresh area,is that true?is that a signal for a position trade?
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,671
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:26am Sep 19, 2013 3:26am
Planning a long trade on AUDJPY.

  1. D1 supply and resistance taken out
  2. Lots of room to upper D1 supply at 96.50

We must look for fresh H4/H1 demand levels to go long.

Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,672
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:30am Sep 19, 2013 3:30am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Lou! We're in the middle of WK/D1 right now. If price pulls back into my H4 zone, we'll be even higher in the curve. D1 trend is bearish respecting supply and removing demand. IF D1 fresh demand area (against the D1 trend as well), is hit then I will not trade that H4 short. Alfonso {image}
Thanks Alphonso.
  • #2,673
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:09am Sep 19, 2013 4:09am
Quoting panoramia
Planning a long trade on AUDJPY. D1 supply and resistance taken out Lots of room to upper D1 supply at 96.50We must look for fresh H4/H1 demand levels to go long. Alfonso {image} {image}

Hey Alfonso i have noticed in a few of your charts you have not been ajusting your zones once they have been touched. I remember you said you adjust a zone once it has been touched because you dont want wide zones.

e.g
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Should i continue to adjust or not?
Thanks

Nick
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #2,674
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:09am Sep 19, 2013 4:09am
Brand new H1 supply level at non-fresh D1 demand on GBPCAD.

  1. Ascending TL solidly broken
  2. Previous H1 demand broken

It looks like shorts are validated.
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,675
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:11am Sep 19, 2013 4:11am
GBPUSD confirmation fresh level h4 at d1 fresh supply. Can i put now an order, or i should wait until h4 take any demand?
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  • #2,676
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:19am Sep 19, 2013 4:19am
Morning, running late here plenty to see and do on the charts.
Here's a watcher
Approaching or touching multi timeframes
Photize
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  • #2,677
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:22am Sep 19, 2013 4:22am
Quoting pres78
Is anyone else watching GBPNZD for a long trade... low, low, low in the W and D curves... Weekly (prox right at 9300) we are at a lovely DBR zone which was fresh and original (that big long blue bar wall stops the look left to make it original IMHO)... Daily again we are at a lovely demand base that was fresh and original and is within (at the bottom) of the weekly zone... Not sure how I will play this as I missed the touch trade so will I wait for confirmation or perhaps hope for a break of the weekly proximal and a re-test... HMM so many decisions....
Glad I waited...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #2,678
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:29am Sep 19, 2013 4:29am
Quoting panoramia
Brand new H1 supply level at non-fresh D1 demand on GBPCAD. Ascending TL solidly broken Previous H1 demand brokenIt looks like shorts are validated. Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso, it seems I'm getting a different picture on the H4, did I overlook something?

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Also looking to short speedbump supply on GBPCHF H1.

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  • #2,679
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:39am Sep 19, 2013 4:39am
Quoting bobyv87
GBPUSD confirmation fresh level h4 at d1 fresh supply. Can i put now an order, or i should wait until h4 take any demand? {image}
Hi just my 2 pennies
The zones on H4 I had marked were stacked and not very well formed, the daily control is just above I believe so not sure if it won't turn out to be a speed bump, ctd.
Although having looked closely price reached the top zone which was great , I would have entered there, its 70+ pips away and any of these bypassed zones may decide to flip , good for targets but not continuation.
I do believe however a greater mind than mine may offer a differing view
Photize
Answer be careful !
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  • #2,680
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:46am Sep 19, 2013 4:46am
Quoting panoramia
Brand new H1 supply level at non-fresh D1 demand on GBPCAD. Ascending TL solidly broken Previous H1 demand brokenIt looks like shorts are validated. Alfonso {image}
Dear Alfonso / Myst1z
I believe Alfonso validates shorts "on return to the newly formed zone" it would of course imply a long from here is possible for the return. maybe Myst1z theres an agreement?
Photize
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