Well, technical analysis works in normal market conditions to determine ranges & areas.
But when markets have already built-in such an important event already beforehand, then we should be ready for it to suddenly vanish as well. We already had a warning with the last week-end gap and we should have get a hint.
So on event like this, I believe or you benefit from info leaks or it is better to enter with both direction, tight SL and tight trailing stop. Difficulty is to be quick enough to set-up the SL and activate the trailing stop, or set pending orders at good levels.
In such a case, a pending short would have not triggered, or if already opened would have been quite quickly cut out while the long would have run all the course on a tight trailing stop.
Or you have a high frequency scanner that can detect any abnormal move BEFORE news release that then give you the hint based on someone else taking position with abnormal confidence. The good news for us is that it is possible for us to benefit from a market scanner. In this case, anyone who have detected the abnormal move on GOLD would have been ready to reinforce its positions on that direction (assuming playing stand-by orders in both direction). Good direction to dig about indi & programming.
This kind of announcement is not like a typical kind of "S" move like we often see with traditional monthly US job release, which may go one direction then suddenly reverse and re-reverse again. No, this one is straight on all the way. One way move. We have already seen this in June with the same guy.
Now indicators have to find new basis before we can interpret anything new else. A complete new floor just suddenly appeared (or vanished depending of the chart), which now fake out all the recent historic normal market data since June.
I should have integrated this for example in my kiwi reverse point determination....when I have been looking at the chart, I should have understand that my MACD & RSI were actually over the value they should have displayed, and then I would haven't expect a swing so early. I would have keep my longs growing, would have continue with my position building strategy and wouldn't have been stepped out 3 times in a row looking for reversal entry points based on cyclical overdue. Cyclical was actually faked out, same way as the market relative strength.
It is quite misleading when such info gets built-in and priced in the market long way beforehand. It messes up cyclical and oscillation indicators.
When assumption gets built in price we tend to forget it. That's a trap. This move wasn't the result of the integration of a new event. No, it was just the technical correction of the integration of an event that actually had never existed. So now market is just "back" to where it should have been, but with truncated historical data (since relating a fact that had actually never existed).
Just my view.
But when markets have already built-in such an important event already beforehand, then we should be ready for it to suddenly vanish as well. We already had a warning with the last week-end gap and we should have get a hint.
So on event like this, I believe or you benefit from info leaks or it is better to enter with both direction, tight SL and tight trailing stop. Difficulty is to be quick enough to set-up the SL and activate the trailing stop, or set pending orders at good levels.
In such a case, a pending short would have not triggered, or if already opened would have been quite quickly cut out while the long would have run all the course on a tight trailing stop.
Or you have a high frequency scanner that can detect any abnormal move BEFORE news release that then give you the hint based on someone else taking position with abnormal confidence. The good news for us is that it is possible for us to benefit from a market scanner. In this case, anyone who have detected the abnormal move on GOLD would have been ready to reinforce its positions on that direction (assuming playing stand-by orders in both direction). Good direction to dig about indi & programming.
This kind of announcement is not like a typical kind of "S" move like we often see with traditional monthly US job release, which may go one direction then suddenly reverse and re-reverse again. No, this one is straight on all the way. One way move. We have already seen this in June with the same guy.
Now indicators have to find new basis before we can interpret anything new else. A complete new floor just suddenly appeared (or vanished depending of the chart), which now fake out all the recent historic normal market data since June.
I should have integrated this for example in my kiwi reverse point determination....when I have been looking at the chart, I should have understand that my MACD & RSI were actually over the value they should have displayed, and then I would haven't expect a swing so early. I would have keep my longs growing, would have continue with my position building strategy and wouldn't have been stepped out 3 times in a row looking for reversal entry points based on cyclical overdue. Cyclical was actually faked out, same way as the market relative strength.
It is quite misleading when such info gets built-in and priced in the market long way beforehand. It messes up cyclical and oscillation indicators.
When assumption gets built in price we tend to forget it. That's a trap. This move wasn't the result of the integration of a new event. No, it was just the technical correction of the integration of an event that actually had never existed. So now market is just "back" to where it should have been, but with truncated historical data (since relating a fact that had actually never existed).
Just my view.
