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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #8,721
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:45pm Sep 18, 2013 4:45pm
My humble and oversipmlistic view on this:

Momentum is up, wait for a pull back if momentum is maintained. If momentum is not mantained and turns, wait for a pull back of it to go short and do not stay in much unless your intention is to gain at least 150 pips, in that case enter something that has value at a cheaper price (yes just like you go shopping) and have a SL of 100 pips (EU, for others use different measures), if you are wrong you are wrong, if not, buy more (if long) every 50 pips (EU) and move your SL every risk. If you able to draw good TL, take profit around there.

Hey, do not listen to me, I always talk BS.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,722
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:45pm Sep 18, 2013 4:45pm
UJ daily EW

UJ seems to be in a triangle wave 4 formation. If true, we are now in wave E down, which may ideally terminate around 97 or is finished already
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  • #8,723
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:52pm Sep 18, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Vinnyvagus, welcome on board. Feel free to share your opinion and trading ideas here. As you can see today, even the old rabbits are bleeding a bit. Am in full "hedging" and "fighting" mode in the moment to control my leverage and to bring risk down. Man, have I be wrong the last days. Isnt't it funny, in the aftermath, that Goldman a few days back, upped the targets for EURUSD against 1.40? Isn't it funny, how the big boys allegedly do not know the decision beforehand, although half of the FED is Goldman owned? Isn't it funny, how...
Don't beat yourself up over this. We have MM on our side. Just think of all the newbies that were overleveraged and got margin called.

Not to mention the ones who have yet to meet their maker.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,724
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:59pm Sep 18, 2013 4:59pm
GU daily EW


After completion of the red wave B triangle, which lasted several years, price may be in the early stages of a larger impulse down.

In this impulsive wave C down, we have seen the completion of the red wave 1, which counted very well as impulse. After that we are right now in wave 2 up, which unfolds as kind of ABC-flat, or WXY.

The upper trend line of the triangle now comes in around 625x

Move above 6282 will invalidate this view.
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  • #8,725
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:01pm Sep 18, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Am asking me right now, how stupid it was to short into that. Man, I can be so stubborn LOL This morning I prepared the sentiment site on my blog, clearly seeing, that between 65 and 70% of the retails were short. How clear have the indication to be to not ignore it? LOL
I am sorry to hear that.

My friend, my friend, being stubborn it is not a good prerogative in trading, we are here to make money, not to be right.

If I have to give an advice and please forgive me for this, (I am only trying to give some constructive criticism), do not read much into things, just rely on your experience that you have gained in those years in reading the price, it is all there, unless you do not want to see it.

This is a bull market and it is determined just by looking at the swings in the tf traded, yes we can make money going short but we need to be very nimble, because the tendency is to run up fast when the bears are getting excited (buying value at a good price).

You are a good going up the hills my friend, use that skill in trading also....

Your mate milan
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,726
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:01pm Sep 18, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting milam
My humble and oversipmlistic view on this: Momentum is up, wait for a pull back if momentum is maintained. If momentum is not mantained and turns, wait for a pull back of it to go short and do not stay in much unless your intention is to gain at least 150 pips, in that case enter something that has value at a cheaper price (yes just like you go shopping) and have a SL of 100 pips (EU, for others use different measures), if you are wrong you are wrong, if not, buy more (if long) every 50 pips (EU) and move your SL every risk. If you able to draw...

seems like a plan :-)
  • #8,727
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:09pm Sep 18, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting milam
{quote} I am sorry to hear that. My friend, my friend, being stubborn it is not a good prerogative in trading, we are here to make money, not to be right. If I have to give an advice and please forgive me for this, (I am only trying to give some constructive criticism), do not read much into things, just rely on your experience that you have gained in those years in reading the price, it is all there, unless you do not want to see it. This is a bull market and it is determined just by looking at the swings in the tf traded, yes we can make money...

Hi Milan,

gladly I take that advice.


I think that I have written whole books about it here in the last past years, how bias can bring one in trouble or reduce the account a bit LOL


Last days I thought about the taper-thing. My first thought was: what, if they do decide to NOT taper?

I disregarded that possibility - and the reason surly was: it did not fit into the plan, it did not fit into reasonableness (out of my view). I thought: they will not dare to do that, because it would have too severe implications for tapering later.........

Oh well, count on the stupidity of the central banksters..........
  • #8,728
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:14pm Sep 18, 2013 5:14pm
any body who go short ??
  • #8,729
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:18pm Sep 18, 2013 5:18pm
AU EW count daily


AU seems to be in a broader impulsive move down

within this impulsive move we have finished a 1-2, 1-now in 2 up

This latest 2 up unfolds likewise as an ABC-flat. Now wave C of this flat is 1,62x wave A, and has hit a resistance shelf. Maybe we do revert here. Chances may be, that wave 2 up is not finished but only wave A of it.

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  • #8,730
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:22pm Sep 18, 2013 5:22pm
UC daily chart without comment - have no good idea for count at the moment

but looks set to incline soon (at least a bit)
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  • #8,731
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:26pm Sep 18, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Milan, gladly I take that advice. I think that I have written whole books about it here in the last past years, how bias can bring one in trouble or reduce the account a bit LOL Last days I thought about the taper-thing. I thought: they will not dare to do that, because it would have too severe implications...
You will be fine, just follow your heart, your flavour, in my view trading is an art form.

YES, I am very much convinced on that, but it needs to be applied ....and that is were it lays the difficulty, because it is not enough to be convinced.

Here seems that there is a tendency to risk, because you are "thinking" and guided by your "concept" (bias) of what will happen instead in reading the facts (price).

In my personal case I was short GU, I gave about 24 hours for price to deliver, it did not and I took the chance to get out at BE as stated in my post where I underlyind the fact to take that decision beacuse I did not want to deal with something I did not understand.

Need to go to the gym. Chat with you later....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,732
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:34pm Sep 18, 2013 5:34pm
Alternative long term count on EU

2 daily chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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main count on EU

2 daily chart

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  • #8,733
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:05pm Sep 18, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting milam
{quote} You will be fine, just follow your heart, your flavour, in my view trading is an art form. YES, I am very much convinced on that, but it needs to be applied ....and that is were it lays the difficulty, because it is not enough to be convinced. Here seems that there is a tendency to risk, because you are "thinking" and guided by your "concept" (bias) of what will happen instead in reading the facts (price). In my personal case I was short GU, I gave about 24 hours for price to deliver, it did not and I took the chance to get out at BE...

Hi Milam,

when I do trade on smaller TF like 1 or 5 min, I do cancel trades quiet often, when goal is not reached within a certain time.

When positioning for longer term trades, it is difficult to say, how much time you should give the trade to develop in its first stages.


But I have to admit, that it is a stupid game, to draw conclusions on a technical basis and take bets, when the FED gets involved.

Hmmm, regarding reading the facts (price):

I simply can not see at any TF, where it was a fact yesterday evening or this morning, where price indicated that it was a fact, that it would jump.

Applying EW, momentum analysis, MTF analysis etc. gave a mixed bag, but due to multiple bearish divergences I gave a higher chance for a drop.

Applying fundamental reasoning, I saw the danger, that FED would only taper less than that what was expected. But thought, that that was already priced in.

Did not belief in outright stupidity with zero tapering



I think, that as a trader we have to take a decision - long, short, or to stay away

I also think, that in each situation we never have "fact", where you can pin a 100% certainty mark on.

Each time we take a trade, we do trade our beliefs. Nothing more, nothing less. Since price is most of the time very irrational, that is the reason even Mathematicians can not find the "trading formula", and mostly speak of random walk, we have to build OUR system, which gives us OUR edge (we do belief in).


But you did right - you did stay away, because you thought, that you did not understand the priceaction at the given time

I should have, too - because I did not understand it either......


Have fun in the Gym
  • #8,734
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:11pm Sep 18, 2013 6:11pm
Oanda Positions in EU


over the last 48h the retails got even more short
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  • #8,735
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:20pm Sep 18, 2013 6:20pm
This was wrote on August the 5th from Dallas FED's Fisher (I gave the link here already) - quick reminder


I can only say in todays light: WTF

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-05/dallas-feds-fisher-we-own-significant-slice-critical-markets-something-gordian-knot
  • #8,736
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:27pm Sep 18, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting infinitus
Alternative long term count on EU 2 daily chart {image} main count on EU 2 daily chart {image}
my exact same counts (if higher) (if lower) ... If lower...oh my... Im short the farm at 1.3520.....
  • #8,737
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:34pm Sep 18, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} sometimes, but only sometimes lately, I can relay on my gut feeling so let us see what will develop regarding Gold now

the Goldmen are again after your money

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...rm-upside-gold
  • #8,738
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:38pm Sep 18, 2013 6:38pm
63 High Government Debt Episodes And What They Tell Us About Our Options Today

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-options-today


very interesting reading
  • #8,739
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:40pm Sep 18, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting needpips
{quote} my exact same counts (if higher) (if lower) ... If lower...oh my... Im short the farm at 1.3520.....

Hi Needpips,

hope all is well - long time no see no hear
  • #8,740
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:43pm Sep 18, 2013 6:43pm
Marc Faber Warns "The Endgame Is A Total Collapse - But From A Higher Diving Board Now"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ving-board-now
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