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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,901
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:19pm Sep 16, 2013 2:19pm
fti thanks for your reply.
Pls don't get me wrong , I was not asking for permission to be robotic but was asking for your guidance to remove the clutter.
I was asking as using no-loss stop orders started to be counterproductive and so many times I watched them squaring me before continuing the move.
I used to use them just to have risk free trades, it's a way that I wanted to avoid market heat.
but recently despite the trend I find market runs to square me before heading back in its direction.
in FOREX , I observed a lot of tricks , for example , brokers tend to say that they offer tight fixed spreads and automated stuff . all this nonsense.
it seems like they set us against computer programs, Once I kept watching closely and I found the following,
let's say E/U was trading 1.33925/1.33940 and I try to sell the market , after the fill confirmation I find out that I was filled at 1.33915 , 1 pips + .
so I contacted my account manager and gave him a clear msg if this will happen again, I will move my account to another broker , and guess what I have not encountered this until recently!

Also one of the reasons I quit using limit orders is brokers front run these order when I'm right.
before reading your thread , I was relying heavily on Fibonacci , so trying to buy a dip in an uptrend , I find they miss my order by 0.0002 when I'm right
( if by limit at 1.32850, they front run my order just at 1.32852 ).

Thanks again for your input.
Enter Signature
  • #42,902
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:13pm Sep 16, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting fti
let me give you a feel example.
if i make you price 10/12 and you buy me 100 million at 12
and you come to me and ask me price again where will i make markets?
and if you didn't come back again where will i make markets to try square out?( with a profit in the open markets?)

same 10/12 and you buy 10,000
if you ask again where will i quote you?
otherewise where will i quote market again?

regards

maybe i give another example , if you never seen market making skills before.
lets say there 10 traders
each can trade 1 mio.
you...
ooh test time. let me be the first one in with the paper.. all guesswork

You are dealer, price 10/12, I buy 100 million at 12.
If I asked you again, if I was looking to square out/ profit, I would hope for 12+/14+. if price was lower, 9/11 then I would have to rescue?
If I didn't come back, you had sold 100 million at 12, you would look to buy back lower (find someone who wants to sell). original 10/12 you would profit, even at 12/14 you could square out.

"same 10/12 and you buy 10,000" You would hope that I would buy more then, what is 10,000 compared to 100 million.

2nd example:
10 traders, each 1 million= 10 million
I buy 50 million at 12 (10/12). prices would rise maybe like this: after first 10 mil-> 11/13, second 10 mil-> 12/14.. 13/15.. 14/16.. ->15/17
the 10 traders would have sold at 12 but now prices are 15 for them to buy back (from someone who is looking to sell).

scenario 2.
10 traders, each 1 million= 10 million
I buy 1 million at 12.. do the 10 traders trade amongst themselves to push price lower and then split my 1 million 10 ways?

but, where would stops be put?

You are dealer, price 10/12, I buy 100 million at 12.
If I put stops at 10, then you push price to 8/10 to stop me out.. then I would be selling you back 100 million at 10? then what?

I feel like I'm on the right tracks, maybe starting line.. I don't know how the markets work exact... head hurts.

btw, fti, This is the information that I really want to know!! market making skills
  • #42,903
  • Edited 1:19am Sep 17, 2013 12:12am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting fti
{quote} pls don't take this personally. but i like give you a wakeup call. your description of a possible Mo is a cowards way trade markets. when you correct in analysis you not have gut attack and when you wrong you plan snowball yourself out of the woods. in others words when you correct you mindset is no balls attack. when you wrong you try be hero and go all out. think deeper, i not going give you technique, which is what you asking. i can only give you directions learn to trade properly. think more. DEMO. regards
Kudos to you, fti, you read my trading character well.
i'm quite risk adverse, and yes i do need a wake up call.
but no sir, am not asking for technique, much is given on the thread already.
the fibo sequence was a convenient sequence to use.
i could have used a reverse fibo sequence, so my attack was more aggressive if my market read was good.

my question was , if you will be kind enough to enlighten me , is the difference between attack sequence and levels of attack.

Best Regards,
apple

btw, can you suggest how i can get over my trading approach that's a coward's way to trade the markets ?
  • #42,904
  • Edited 4:15am Sep 17, 2013 3:40am | Edited 4:15am
the man.
with honour and dedication.

salutations.
Happy 90th
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  • #42,905
  • Edited 4:33am Sep 17, 2013 3:46am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting CHFJunkie
fti thanks for your reply. Pls don't get me wrong , I was not asking for permission to be robotic but was asking for your guidance to remove the clutter. I was asking as using no-loss stop orders started to be counterproductive and so many times I watched them squaring me before continuing the move. I used to use them just to have risk free trades, it's a way that I wanted to avoid market heat. but recently despite the trend I find market runs to square me before heading back in its direction. in FOREX , I observed a lot of tricks , for example...
you already know. had experienced it.
i keep harping about the conflict of interest between broking and market making.
but still there is no solution yet.
if retail broking is not allowed take counterparty trade on customers, then no one wants those trades. Its not marketable size.

For now only way is for traders wise up and stop showing their weakness and get.......

regards
  • #42,906
  • Edited 4:06am Sep 17, 2013 3:52am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} but, where would stops be put?
btw, fti, This is the information that I really want to know!! market making skills
in the trader, babysit it yourself.
Is basics in risk management, isn't it.

Why would you want to learn market making?
you are not market making.
if you was, the fee to learn it, would be in millions.
These only taught to TOP dealers in banks. For others it does nothing.


regards
  • #42,907
  • Edited 4:09am Sep 17, 2013 3:56am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Kudos to you, fti, you read my trading character well. i'm quite risk adverse, and yes i do need a wake up call. but no sir, am not asking for technique, much is given on the thread already. the fibo sequence was a convenient sequence to use. i could have used a reverse fibo sequence, so my attack was more aggressive if my market read was good. my question was , if you will be kind enough to enlighten me , is the difference between attack sequence and levels of attack. Best Regards, apple btw, can you suggest how i can get over my trading...
If you watch a soccer match and there is a team comeout only have defense mindset only.
Do you ever get feeling that they can win the game?
Trading similarly is a game of strategic defense and attacks.
No one can win playing defensive only.
Only you know you going get ahead, when you get ahead everyday with some profits.
Thats collecting capital to make it happen.

Most of traders fails their endevour , because they unable be consistant in collecting risk capital.
and for their lack of ability, they force the delusion that they can make big killing while over exposing their backside.
Some not even know the rules(market structure) of the game.

You need figure it out for yourself. If you need ask anyone else then you not have what it takes yet.
sorry. i not mean to be mean, but reality sometimes sucks.

regards
  • #42,908
  • Sep 17, 2013 4:14am Sep 17, 2013 4:14am
Quoting 4tiger
but, where would stops be put?
Quoting fti
in the trader, babysit it yourself. Is basics in risk management, isn't it.
Ah, trick question on the exam and I tried to answer it! I was just wondering how it affects the market when I square a position or if a stop loss gets hit..
If I am closing a buy order, it is the same thing as thinking the market to be bearish (selling), right?

Quoting fti
Why would you want to learn market making? you are not market making. if you was, the fee to learn it, would be in millions. These only taught to TOP dealers in banks. For others it does nothing. regards
Millions.. in demo account money? Just curious about the markets.. I know knowing too much information won't necessarily help with trading itself, can't hope to recall all that information when putting in a trade in the heat of the moment when dealing with the market, but it is interesting to me is all.
  • #42,909
  • Edited 6:01am Sep 17, 2013 4:25am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} {quote} Ah, trick question on the exam and I tried to answer it! I was just wondering how it affects the market when I square a position or if a stop loss gets hit.. If I am closing a buy order, it is the same thing as thinking the market to be bearish (selling), right? {quote} Millions.. in demo account money? Just curious about the markets.. I know knowing too much information won't necessarily help with trading itself, can't hope to recall all that information when putting in a trade in the heat of the moment when dealing with the...

not my friend, there is no such thing as knowing too much infomation.
but if information is not organised, then its just heap of rubbish.
half truths is even worst, it will be source of distraction.
and one will not be able organise information if one not understand the information or without the experience relate it to other information that had been organised.
so if one had been misguided in mindset mostly the library is ...........

when one has aquired the skills to respond to organised information and guarding performance from the tracking of its effectiveness, with a clear mind, then.......

regards
  • #42,910
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:02am Sep 17, 2013 6:02am
so nice, i like this pic.
Thank You.
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  • #42,911
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:54am Sep 17, 2013 6:54am
fti, What if I have a position that's in the green but we have a news event.
Should I square before the event or I hold and manage the position closely?

My question seems naive , but bear with me as I'm restructuring my whole mindset trying to unlearn some of my trading habits.
Enter Signature
  • #42,912
  • Edited 7:47am Sep 17, 2013 6:55am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting 4tiger
btw, fti, This is the information that I really want to know!! market making skills
woops.... I don't really mean that I want to become a market maker (are market makers bad or something?) or Interbank Dealer, I just wanted to know the answers to the questions that you posted...

As for learning Market Making.. er, I just sorta looked at what a MM is again, and I must have had my terms confused... I wanted to learn like, institutional stuff? I don't know why I would want to know that either, I am coming from the other side of the tracks in this forex game- retail/ broker.

But would you rather have me learn from this man: http://learningtotrade.com/my-training-method/ ??

hmm.. Fti, Your name is mentioned in post #20 here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=150239

Quoting fti
...so if one had been misguided in mindset mostly the library is ........... when one has aquired the skills to respond to organised information and guarding performance from the tracking of its effectiveness, with a clear mind, then.......
then one will be fit to know, because knowledge is power, ignorance is bliss?

your talk about "but if information is not organised, then its just heap of rubbish" has me thinking about AOW Chapter 11: The Nine Situations (The Nine Kinds of Grounds).

In the commentary for that chapter, the Translator writes... "As other commentators and translators have pointed out, this particular chapter is long, disorganized and repetitive, and it shows signs of having been put together from disparate fragments, possibly jumbled bamboo strips (as indeed does much of The Art of War)."

After reading the chapter, I still feel that the information in there is important. Here, Sun-tzu lays out instructions for each type of ground (attack/ do not attack/ do not fight... etc.) However, I feel that these are more or less just guidelines, because when it comes to combat, life/death situations, one must take the situation as it presents itself (this I assume, having not been in combat before). Anyways, I do enjoy reading AOW. Thanks for sharing.
  • #42,913
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:01am Sep 17, 2013 8:01am
I feel like buying FTI a drink , and sit silently gazing the sky. FTI, can minum or not? hehe
  • #42,914
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:12am Sep 17, 2013 11:12am
Quoting CHFJunkie
fti, What if I have a position that's in the green but we have a news event. Should I square before the event or I hold and manage the position closely? My question seems naive , but bear with me as I'm restructuring my whole mindset trying to unlearn some of my trading habits.

if you work for me, if you carry it ALL into event, if you lose money, i send you on leave.
but since you trade for yourself, Maybe you should make that decision too?

Change is good, but please never lose orientation. adjust into things that works.
Slowly. underterstand and adjust accordingly.

Is hard teach old dogs new tricks, but slowly things will rub off.

regards
  • #42,915
  • Edited 11:46am Sep 17, 2013 11:24am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} woops.... I don't really mean that I want to become a market maker (are market makers bad or something?) or Interbank Dealer, I just wanted to know the answers to the questions that you posted... As for learning Market Making.. er, I just sorta looked at what a MM is again, and I must have had my terms confused... I wanted to learn like, institutional stuff? I don't know why I would want to know that either, I am coming from the other side of the tracks in this forex game- retail/ broker. But would you rather have me learn from this man:...
interesting.
I don't know him, but i can see his subject headings.essentials are there. Title is a little misleading.
how you going use the mm skills if you not mm? and with a retail book?

??? how do you know they's talking about me.

anyway, what point of you learning market making. Is a skill takes long time develop , also you never get spread edge, so how are you ever going to practise it? you really think you can learn skills by just watching videos?

regards

watch this video and
try learn sing like this. practise my friend, practise.
Most frastrating things in life is things you know but cannot practise.

Oh by the way, you know how good you are, when you tape your efforts and send it for recording.
try understand the meaning of TRAINING.


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  • #42,916
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:42am Sep 17, 2013 11:42am
Quoting jimborders
I feel like buying FTI a drink , and sit silently gazing the sky. FTI, can minum or not? hehe
Thank you very much , my friend.
of course i can minum. everyday i minum much when i wake up.hehe

regards
  • #42,917
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:43am Sep 17, 2013 11:43am
Hi All

The antifragile concept is really interesting ..... so enjoy

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regards
  • #42,918
  • Sep 17, 2013 12:13pm Sep 17, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting Redsunfx
Hi All The antifragile concept is really interesting ..... so enjoy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4MhC5tcEv0 regards
yes, wisdom.

now i rest wait for fomc wisdom later.


regards
  • #42,919
  • Edited 12:35pm Sep 17, 2013 12:16pm | Edited 12:35pm
For the one who like part 1 ... this is part 2 ....

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forget to mention , Taleb use to be wall street trader for 20 years ......
  • #42,920
  • Edited 1:10pm Sep 17, 2013 12:56pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting Redsunfx
For the one who like part 1 ... this is part 2 .... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0ShuJ5Maz8 forget to mention , Taleb use to be wall street trader for 20 years ......
is true, but peeps want instant gratification.
everyone knows economies of scales of growth is a bell curve, when diminishing returns steps in , then it nose dives.
but peeps don't care.
Is a mindset problem, seems they are trained to be such.

Is like my opinions about what heli does.
in fact what he did isn't very wrong.
but the dosage of the medicine , in the short run should up, in the long run all dies.
now the report cards reads even in short run we could dies?
same mindset with some traders.
short run they unprofitable , so they punt long run.
is like living in 2020 without living thru 2014,2015....
anyway its gone into death battle scenario .With big QE as medicine, now we going to need fig out what's going to happen with this QE removed.
medicine to remedy the impact of earlier medication?

Ya , the frigility is become very apparent already. they blow it up big big. Lets hope not meet the pin that will burst it.

Thank you , much wisdom.
back to rest, fomc will be interesting.


regards
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