Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 129 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,561
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:04am Sep 17, 2013 1:04am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Ah ok got it! Right this discretionary factor is something that I need more experience with, somehow feel quite a few of my losses are due to similar scenarios. Thanks and looking forward to your Fractals video!
Thanks for your comprehension Ivan! That discretionary factor is what I want to get rid of, it's the only one discretionary factor I am sometimes working with. A robot does not operate under discretioanary factors/variables, but when human emotions pop in, there will be lot of them!

I have everything tied in, I am seeing a way of being as robotic as with the other rules I have. This fractals one is to filter out, confirm there is at least the absorption of previous swing, which helps a lot. Then there is one about minimum risk/reward a level should have created when it was created. Will put it all together soon, but nothing changes, it's all the same over and over! Simplicity!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,562
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:36am Sep 17, 2013 1:36am
EURNZD bouncing off D1 demand. Descending trendline broken.

  1. IF there are brand new H4 demand levels formed on its way up (if it wants to continue rallying), I will be taking those longs. The trendline painted is NOT valid, I just drew it like that because I will not take levels underneath it, I want the price to show me some strength and momentum
  2. If the last week low (red beads) is broken, we could have a nice rally
  3. H4 compressed supply right above the last week low, too much trading in the zone. It "could" be easily absorbed.
  4. If it TL is broken to the down side, then I will have to look for brand new levels of demand with a bigger D1 demand penetration

Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,563
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:51am Sep 17, 2013 1:51am
Quoting panoramia
EURNZD bouncing off D1 demand. Descending trendline broken. IF there are brand new H4 demand levels formed on its way up (if it wants to continue rallying), I will be taking those longs. The trendline painted is NOT valid, I just drew it like that because I will not take levels underneath it, I want the price to show me some strength and momentum If the last week low (red beads) is broken, we could have a nice rally H4 compressed supply right above the last week low, too much trading in the zone. It "could" be easily absorbed. If it TL is broken...
Good morning Alfonso, do you make the notes and arrows after the print screen, or do you have a tool to make them in mt4. I would like to be able to make them like this.
  • #2,564
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:05am Sep 17, 2013 2:05am
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Good morning Alfonso, do you make the notes and arrows after the print screen, or do you have a tool to make them in mt4. I would like to be able to make them like this.
Morning Robert,

I do make the notes after the capture Jing http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/ a free tool to do that. It's so so useful, it helps a lot to put foward what you are trying to explain.

I am done for today, the markets dynamics are like yesterday, my setups are still valid, added a couple more to my VPS, so today I will take my day off. It took me about 40 minutes to go through all the pairs and replying to a couple of emails, this is why I love swing trading based supply and demand imbalances, as well as having very fix rules. If the rules conditions are still there, then why should I analyze it again?

I will reply to your questions/messages later. Will spend the day with some friends and the beach. September is my favourite month! My VPS will take care of the setups, it will do things better than my only neuron left
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,565
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:10am Sep 17, 2013 2:10am
Quoting panoramia
EURNZD bouncing off D1 demand. Descending trendline broken. IF there are brand new H4 demand levels formed on its way up (if it wants to continue rallying), I will be taking those longs. The trendline painted is NOT valid, I just drew it like that because I will not take levels underneath it, I want the price to show me some strength and momentum If the last week low (red beads) is broken, we could have a nice rally H4 compressed supply right above the last week low, too much trading in the zone. It "could" be easily absorbed. If it TL is broken...
Hi Alfonso, since you pointed out that H4 region as compressed supply, I'm supposing you don't consider that region as a speed bump supply on the D1 that took out previous demand? I personally had planned to only consider longs on EURNZD after that D1 speedbump supply has been taken out, but apparently you didn't think it would be a problem.

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  • #2,566
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:13am Sep 17, 2013 2:13am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi Alfonso, since you pointed out that H4 region as compressed supply, I'm supposing you don't consider that region as a speed bump supply on the D1 that took out previous demand? I personally had planned to only consider longs on EURNZD after that D1 speedbump supply has been taken out, but apparently you didn't think it would be a problem. {image}
It will be a problem if the H4 demand setup is at that D1 supply speedump or too close Ivan. The D1 demand is holding even though used-up. That speedbump didn't take out opposing demand, so it does not worry me much for now! But NEVER buy into such an area if too close!

Leaving now! Taking my day off!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,567
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:24am Sep 17, 2013 2:24am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Morning Robert, I do make the notes after the capture Jing http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/ a free tool to do that. It's so so useful, it helps a lot to put foward what you are trying to explain. I am done for today, the markets dynamics are like yesterday, my setups are still valid, added a couple more to my VPS, so today I will take my day off. It took me about 40 minutes to go through all the pairs and replying to a couple of emails, this is why I love swing trading based supply and demand imbalances, as well as having...
Thanks Alfonso for the tool, and thanks for letting me know you do your analysis in 40 minutes I understand I have a lot of testing to do to be able to match that
Enjoy your day at the beach.
  • #2,568
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:51am Sep 17, 2013 2:51am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Marko! I had that H4 ascending trendline on USDJPY H4 as well, which is solidly broken. A valid H4 speedbump of 7 pips is on my UJ H4 chart, but D1 demand is too close, almost hit on mine. Speedbumps are not that high odds when we are so close to opposing D1 demand area. My trade would be at the peak, the extreme price that caused price to remove previous lows. Off to lunch and the beach! Break time! Hope you all get some nice pips today, even though it's Monday Alfonso

That's what i thought ..just comparing.
  • #2,569
  • Sep 17, 2013 3:25am Sep 17, 2013 3:25am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi ar58, welcome to the thread! I'm still learning so don't take my word for it, but here is my opinion: {image} Alfonso do correct me if I'm wrong!
Thank you for your comments.....most helpful.....hoping to get better...
  • #2,570
  • Sep 17, 2013 4:38am Sep 17, 2013 4:38am
GBPJPY entry was hit. I am in trade now. Should i be worry about d1 demand? Maybe there i move my sl to BE? What do you think Alfonso?
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  • #2,571
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:19am Sep 17, 2013 5:19am
Quoting bobyv87
GBPJPY entry was hit. I am in trade now. Should i be worry about d1 demand? Maybe there i move my sl to BE? What do you think Alfonso? {image} {image}

I think that u may have rushed a bit ....

just my 2 cents
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  • #2,572
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:30am Sep 17, 2013 5:30am
Quoting markot
{quote} I think that u may have rushed a bit .... just my 2 cents {image}
Since we are within a fresh monthly supply area, it is allowed to take every supply level that forms. You do not need to wait for previous demand to be absorbed.
This is also what Alfonso said in the last webinar where GBPJPY was analysed.
I took the same entry.
  • #2,573
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:38am Sep 17, 2013 5:38am
Quoting Olarion1975
{quote} Since we are within a fresh monthly supply area, it is allowed to take every supply level that forms. You do not need to wait for previous demand to be absorbed. This is also what Alfonso said in the last webinar where GBPJPY was analysed. I took the same entry.
Just watching as New here in this great blog,
Monthly ? I have a weekly supply but its been hit hard 3 times so not sure of its quality also the H4 supply does not score too highly with regard to leaving and distance away etc etc , Not for me to trade , thx guys
Photize
  • #2,574
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:44am Sep 17, 2013 5:44am
Trying to keep analysis simple-Alphonso's way
(The platform is not MT4 so rectangle indicator not possible)
I am looking to go long on GBP/NZD for these reasons:

1-Daily: the price level is near the daily demand and TL is up (demand in control)
2-4hr: the price level is near demand level which confirms the trade bias but stll in a down trend (trend line intact) .

Entry 1 Hr
Wait to retrace from daily demand zone and break the 4hr trendline and absorb the Hourly supply overhead and then wait for a new speed bump level and enter on the 1st hit.

May be its too simple but lets see
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  • #2,575
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:47am Sep 17, 2013 5:47am
Quoting Olarion1975
{quote} Since we are within a fresh monthly supply area, it is allowed to take every supply level that forms. You do not need to wait for previous demand to be absorbed. This is also what Alfonso said in the last webinar where GBPJPY was analysed. I took the same entry.

I ll wait for confirmation...
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  • #2,576
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:57am Sep 17, 2013 5:57am
Quoting markot
{quote} I ll wait for confirmation... {image} {image}
You can wait for confirmation of course if you fell more comfortable with it.
On my charts the weekly and monthly supply was fresh and hit for the first time. This is broker dependent and caused by the different server times.

Personally, I take every supply zone I see and don't care if it ends in a loss.
I just want to be the first one selling from the HTF zone and ride it down.
  • #2,577
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:22am Sep 17, 2013 6:22am
Quoting photize
{quote} Just watching as New here in this great blog, Monthly ? I have a weekly supply but its been hit hard 3 times so not sure of its quality also the H4 supply does not score too highly with regard to leaving and distance away etc etc , Not for me to trade , thx guys Photize
If fresh HTF zone is hit on its proximal line, you have to be flexible (as Alfonso said in the last webinar). The score does not need to be that high and the level also does not need to look pretty. Just take it or wait for confirmation.
  • #2,578
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:29am Sep 17, 2013 6:29am
Quoting Olarion1975
{quote} If fresh HTF zone is hit on its proximal line, you have to be flexible (as Alfonso said in the last webinar). The score does not need to be that high and the level also does not need to look pretty. Just take it or wait for confirmation.
Thanks,
I missed the webinars, registered the other day :-) and it seems YouTube has changed all his video library and restarted them, I keep checking for the upload from the last webinar maybe Alfonso could check, It's nice on the beach,
I agree with the sentiment but "Fresh" was causing problems on most time frames, I'm going to try and post a chart in my blog to see if its easy :-), maybe you have one to show your zones
Thx
Photize
  • #2,579
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:48am Sep 17, 2013 6:48am
Quoting photize
{quote} Thanks, I missed the webinars, registered the other day :-) and it seems YouTube has changed all his video library and restarted them, I keep checking for the upload from the last webinar maybe Alfonso could check, It's nice on the beach, I agree with the sentiment but "Fresh" was causing problems on most time frames, I'm going to try and post a chart in my blog to see if its easy :-), maybe you have one to show your zones Thx Photize
Go to page 122. Scroll down. The webinar is posted there.
  • #2,580
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:15am Sep 17, 2013 7:15am
Hi Photize,

http://www.youtube.com/user/supplyanddemandforex/videos

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