Economic Analysis VS Market Action

dovish means bad expression,bad view, bad comment or not good comment usually we interpreted speech from CB gov or high influence people...

if anyone knows about whats meaning for "Quadrupple Witching" u will aware about next week Friday...and the day after what we call "FED TAPERING"....

before we focus on fed "No or Yes Tapering" By fed this thhursday let we focus on who will be next FED NOminee since it shaken market in early market open today....
since Obama is expected to announce a nominee for the Fed chairmanship as early as this month....and

There are highly likely Janet Yallen is nxt chieft since the candidate
1..Lawrence summer not interest
2.Timothy Geithner not interest
3.Donald Kohn posible(but not likely since he is aleady 70)

but if Janet is the next chairwomen then Yellen is considered by many on Wall Street to be a "dove" (more concerned with unemployment than with inflation)...so he more worry about jobless....since jobless actually down...then of course he will hawkish about that soon with tapering program likely continue with end of QE....that soon continue with rate hike that will spur yen carry trade to buy more dollar as hope future rate more higher....

it is basically end of the Quarter, month, week. A lot of options expires, many big swing position will be taken, my general advice is to trade intrade that day as 100pips up then down during one session is normal. I like the concept of this thread, will be paying visit when I can and write my opinion.

yes i get hat u means...it is quadrupple witching.... it occcur on 3rd week every quarter....thats why i warning in the past thread that traders could unwind their position after the FED event.....

RBA could dovish today with recently sluggish jobless but RBA could hawkish if they say rate appropriate! Watching AUD behavior

overall today statement is dovish.....the key to the dovish is "RBA have aroom to cut" that bring AUD down after report

RBA says rate cuts still possible, signals no moves imminent...it means still have a room to cut or hold.....ok as a conclusion...it depend on the eco activity.....for the digestion about this rate..soon we must look at CPI,JOBLESS & GDP figure....than we can speculate what RBA next move

RBA unlikely to cut further - HSBC....since HSBC speculate rate on hold...but im speculate RBA have a room to cut....i have my reason.....if more jobless sluggish result soon ..RBA highly to cut in my oppinion..huhu

In regard to the fed tapering, what would happen to the market actually?
Global market?
Emerging Market?
Commodity market?
Any thought guys?

Ok...first if tapering occur early...
bond will tumble ...yeild rise as sooner us will hike the short term rate after qe end.....stocks market just pay wath fed inject to economy and the tumble if occur is only for short term effect since taper actually sign that economy is recovery .then long term stocks will rebound back...since i favor on yen...with tapering means policy diverge with boj....usdjpy could rise as carry trader will start yen carry trade and buy the usd or high yield back....

ok then....if fed taper occur late then the effect is same like taper early...

if fed late to taper the effect is same like early but if fed late to taper there are alot of breaking event soon that disturb it such as debt ceiling,budget war and fed nominee....that make fed not to taper..

if fed not taper (which is highly unlikely except big turmoil comes before the annoucement)

more castatroph to market and world market...whoch is more inlfation occur that bring higher price of gold....

for conclusion if fed taper....it means that soon they will hike the interest rate.USD demand up....gold will dump by investor since dollar demand weaken the gold and inflation will ease....

but if no taper...it means ecoomy no recovery yet...it means that more castatroph to financial market....wmenaing more usd to print and usd will devalue (down)....gold will up since more inflation occur....

nd the how big or how low it taper is only short term effect ...since some forecast market already price in for it for certain amount of taper....but for long term it is actaully good because it menas that FED will Hike rate soon...thats will spur more demand for USD

for EM market.... investor will flee to US back and sell their asset since investor want to take a risk.....


hahaha...sorry for long idea and oppinion....

Ok today CPI important figure for next BOE move about their AP Program/QE.....if CPI down then they have a room to easing more....so GBP will down....if CPI UP it means more inflation and follow what BOE need as QE will create inflatooi..then GBP UP...only from my humble oppinion

Great interpretations, good if you can give such commentary on all the high importance news event. Keep it coming!

UK CPI figure just now maintain with forecast....but it sign that deflation are there....so BOE have a room to ease but not urgently....GBP down after the news as im expected previously

do u think any speculators brave enough to short sell the gold before FED this week??i wait for brave speculators one.....hopefully Soros one of the brave one..hahaha

today US #CPI is IMPORTANT FIGURE FOR #QE TAPERING .....it must show inflation signal or increase since #FED near its tapering consideration.......if #CPI down it means that #FED still not have a green light to taper since there still deflation when #QE still in process....so USD will strenghten if CPI figure UP and #USD will down if #CPI down since market could speculate tapering could implement in longer term than this week...this is only from my oppinion

AActually market dont want to take a risk for the FED event.... we could see posible short sell or taking profit event before FED announcement soon..watching #GOLD #USD #YEN #EUR #GBP #AUD #NZD

This is MY IDEA for market behaviour for this FED TAPERING SPECULATION.......

NOTE: BERNANKE SPEECH/CONFERENCE must be watch & digest very carefully...

Ok...first if tapering occur early...

bond will tumble ...yeild rise as sooner us will hike the short term rate after qe end.....stocks market just pay what fed inject to economy and the tumble if occur is only for short term effect since taper actually sign that economy is recovery .then long term stocks will rebound back...since i favor on yen...with tapering means policy diverge with boj....usdjpy could rise as carry trader will start yen carry trade and buy the usd or high yield back....

ok then....if fed taper occur late then the effect is same like taper early...

if fed late to taper the effect is same like early but if fed late to taper there are alot of breaking event soon that disturb it such as debt ceiling,budget war and fed nominee....that make fed “possible”not to taper..

if fed not taper (which is highly unlikely except big turmoil comes before the annoucement)

more catastrophe to market and world market...which is more inflation occur that bring higher price of gold....

for conclusion if fed taper....it means that soon they will hike the interest rate.USD demand up....gold will dump by investor since dollar demand weaken the gold and inflation will ease....

but if no taper...it means ecoomy no recovery yet...it means that more catastrophe to financial market....meaning more usd to print and usd will devalue (down)....gold will up since more inflation occur with the value of dollar down....

and the how big or how low it taper is only short term effect ...since some forecast market already price in for it for certain amount of taper....but for long term it is actually good because it means that FED will Hike rate soon...thats will spur more demand for USD

looks like traders short sell the gold before fed event..if the short squeeze come when the fed tapering annoucement just hold ur short bu cover it with buy...because the gold only will up if no taper occur....

Hey Buddy,

I like what you are trying to do here, tying together the Fundis with the Techs for a holistic view... I have a similar thought process for core positions in my portfolio... it'll be nice to bounce ideas

my 2 cents on gold:

Similar to the April sell off, which started about a month before the Fed event on 5/22, and ended with massive short covering after... we may have a very similar situation going on here

I have been trading gold to the short side for about 2 weeks now, and made a few bucks, but this chart shows me signs of trend exhaustion...

In addition, there are a boatload of fib confluences which I am not showing to keep things simple... which may also imply that the down move is overcooked

I would not be the least bit surprised to see gold pop to the upside after the announcement, once we have some visibility on where things stand with the Fed

Gold generally tends to be much more aggressive in discounting major policy shifts due to its dual status as an inflation hedge + store of wealth

I think the highest probability outcome is that we get a "taper lite", and this has already been baked into the price... if Bernanke gets super hawkish (highly unlikely), then we can see a major catalyst for further downside, but beyond that, I would be looking for a nice bounce north

Cheers and good luck today!

Gold H4

if already price in then it only short squeeze for gold..but if taper happen long term still down....only if taper happen...huhu