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  • #1,241
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:58pm Sep 10, 2013 12:58pm
NOT quite sure about your question there djack. I can tell you when there's good volatility in an instrument the best way to consistently make money, I have found, is to employ non-directional strategies. Look into straddles and strangles and various spread strategies.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,242
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:19pm Sep 10, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} still on the Oct 19 EEM long strangle, $42.50/$38.00 ($0.58/$0.42) ~ buck even + comms buck strangle on Oct 19 VXX maybe too, $18/$14 ($0.70/$0.30)....
Still waiting, watching both of these for a turning zone.

Looking for VXX <$15 this week (could test the year's low @ $14), looking for EEM to near $42

So...no war?.....fear of the tapir long since baked in....?

I am covering my kiester either way....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,243
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:13pm Sep 11, 2013 2:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Still waiting, watching both of these for a turning zone. Looking for VXX <$15 this week (could test the year's low @ $14), looking for EEM to near $42 So...no war?.....fear of the tapir long since baked in....? I am covering my kiester either way....
bit the bullet on EEM Oct 19 $40 put for $0.65, still watching VXX

also watching DUST and NUGT, papertrading some pair trading there, will be interesting if/when they move to near parity....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,244
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:27pm Sep 11, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} also watching DUST and NUGT, papertrading some pair trading there, will be interesting if/when they move to near parity....
With NUGT @ $63.46 and DUST @ $31.88 (multiple 2)..and the two inversely correlated....is there a time value residual arb potential?

buy 5 NUGT Oct 19 $64 call @ $10.40 ($5,200) and buy 10 DUST Oct 19 $32 call @ $5.30 ($5,300)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,245
  • Sep 12, 2013 2:47pm Sep 12, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} With NUGT @ $63.46 and DUST @ $31.88 (multiple 2)..and the two inversely correlated....is there a time value residual arb potential? buy 5 NUGT Oct 19 $64 call @ $10.40 ($5,200) and buy 10 DUST Oct 19 $32 call @ $5.30 ($5,300)
now 24 hrs later, NUGT at $54.74 - 5 Oct 19 $64 call @ $6.00 = $3,000
and with DUST at $36.08 - 10 Oct 19 $32 call @ $8.00 = $8,000......net $500 gain
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,246
  • Sep 13, 2013 1:59am Sep 13, 2013 1:59am
looking for long term plays on the spy/dia ETF's, most likely 6 months out to March 14 FOR A put correction on the DOW/ S&P, zoom out on the daily and were looking at early stage of right shoulder of a long term h/s to the downside, same with the weekly plus its in a longer term divergence.

implied volatility is falling which is making the options cheap plus we're not far of the historical volitility 52 week lows at 3-4%. Only a run past 15500 in the DOW would make me re think my view.

I'm looking to take spy march 2014 $150 put for around $2 maybe $2.50 max. Currently its trading just over $2.90 so a little more drop in implied volatility should bring it down
  • #1,247
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:02am Sep 13, 2013 2:02am
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking for long term plays on the spy/dia ETF's, most likely 6 months out to March 14 FOR A put correction on the DOW/ S&P, zoom out on the daily and were looking at early stage of right shoulder of a long term h/s to the downside, same with the weekly plus its in a longer term divergence. implied volatility is falling which is making the options cheap plus we're not far of the historical volitility 52 week lows at 3-4%. Only a run past 15500 in the DOW would make me re think my view. I'm looking to take spy march...
15600
  • #1,248
  • Sep 13, 2013 9:44am Sep 13, 2013 9:44am
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking for long term plays on the spy/dia ETF's,
hey CG, are you taking a break from the weeklies? I'm mostly looking at a 30-60 day window, might try weeklies more later in the season when I have more screen time.

Now am positioned short on S&P via SDS, counting on the FOMC to start the taper volatility train rolling again next week.

Also watching VXX for a short term play

Am spread in oil via USO, overweight the long side.

All mostly event risk based, re: the taper and Syria conflict, wondering if the worst effect of each might not be water under the bridge...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,249
  • Sep 13, 2013 9:51am Sep 13, 2013 9:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Also watching VXX for a short term play ...
looking for another dip toward $14 in VXX for a straight long call, want that today, prolly won't get it

also looking at a TLT straddle if the 10y rate will dip to 2.80 or so
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,250
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:59pm Sep 13, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey CG, are you taking a break from the weeklies? I'm mostly looking at a 30-60 day window, might try weeklies more later in the season when I have more screen time. Now am positioned short on S&P via SDS, counting on the FOMC to start the taper volatility train rolling again next week. Also watching VXX for a short term play Am spread in oil via USO, overweight the long side. All mostly event risk based, re: the taper and Syria conflict, wondering if the worst effect of each might not be water under the bridge...
Hi T.F., I still enjoy weeklies as i like the increased leverage it gives us, recently i too have started to trade a 60 day window with good success plus it has shown to me that it may be less risky especially if the impled volatility is at lows
  • #1,251
  • Sep 13, 2013 11:52pm Sep 13, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} looking for another dip toward $14 in VXX for a straight long call,
not to $14.00, but $14.47 close Friday. If we can get a mellow weekend stretching into Monday with a little bit further dip in the VIX, could set up for a nice predictable volatility spike treasure hunt for FOMC day and beyond.

Looking at selling the Sep 21 VXX $14 put ($.18 Fri close) and buying the Sep 21 VXX $15 call ($0.27 Fri close), especially if I can see a favorable move in VXX on Monday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,252
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:26pm Sep 16, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} not to $14.00, but $14.47 close Friday. If we can get a mellow weekend stretching into Monday with a little bit further dip in the VIX, could set up for a nice predictable volatility spike treasure hunt for FOMC day and beyond. Looking at selling the Sep 21 VXX $14 put ($.18 Fri close) and buying the Sep 21 VXX $15 call ($0.27 Fri close), especially if I can see a favorable move in VXX on Monday....
bought the Sep 21 VXX $15 calls for $0.16
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,253
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:17pm Sep 16, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} bought the Sep 21 VXX $15 calls for $0.16
Why so short term? I could see a good chance that they might sell it off over the next month, perhaps all the way to the 200DMA at some point, whereas over the next 5 days, who knows, seems like a gamble. I suppose the odds must be worth it?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,254
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:49pm Sep 16, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Why so short term? I could see a good chance that they might sell it off over the next month, perhaps all the way to the 200DMA at some point, whereas over the next 5 days, who knows, seems like a gamble. I suppose the odds must be worth it?
I don't take many of these st directional gambles anymore but this one seemed like a good bet with FOMC on Wed - I'll be looking to get out that day with some profit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,255
  • Sep 16, 2013 5:53pm Sep 16, 2013 5:53pm
That's fair enough. I suppose it's just a punt; it could fly I suppose. I think (too?) many are expecting a sell-off. Wasn't there a huge sell-off earlier this year when BB hinted at tapering? Usually what you least expect to happen happens; well that's my experience.

The charts do look awfully bullish at the moment. I am wondering if we see another 3% on the upside perhaps from here before it rolls over, perhaps in October. But going further out it just looks like really there are going to be two directions for equities from hereonin: sideways and up. Still, you never know; could be 3% on the upside and 10%-15% on the downside within days or weeks. Just have to pay attention to dem candles.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,256
  • Sep 16, 2013 6:27pm Sep 16, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
But going further out it just looks like really there are going to be two directions for equities from hereonin: sideways and up.
Sure, sell index etf puts/buy calls. Had my eye on some possible event risk - FOMC taper specifics and Syria, but both seem priced in & fizzled.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,257
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:19am Sep 17, 2013 5:19am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Sure, sell index etf puts/buy calls. Had my eye on some possible event risk - FOMC taper specifics and Syria, but both seem priced in & fizzled.
T.F. i like that strategy on VXX but it may be better to buy a lower strike price on maybe the 16$ call. S/P rose a fair amount yesterday and it would normally take VXX down to 13.50 but it never, instead it rose to 14.33 indicating support. 16$ OPTION IS closed at 7c yesterday so we should be able to buy it for 5c or lower near the open.

plus i'm gonna sell the $13.50 put for around 5c hopefully making my net debit ZERO or a penny at best
  • #1,258
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:57am Sep 17, 2013 5:57am
looking into taking october expiration put on USO, the $37 put is trading for 55. If i can get it for 50c or lower i'll buy it expection it to fall to around $36 especiallly if short term peace moves forward in syria
  • #1,259
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:17am Sep 17, 2013 6:17am
Quoting Cecil Gee
priceline is the next one to take a fall, closed at $938. i'm looking for a $200 fall on this very soon. Hoping to put a put trade in by thursday
ready to take a trade on Priceline, since the above quote PCLN moved higher above 968 so have waited patiently. it closed at 967 yesterday with the dow and s/p bouncing of the recent sell offa couple of weeks ago pcln has only move around $30 hogher which is nothing for this voatile stock.
my trade for the is to buy a put two weeks out for october 4 expiration, $930 put for under $3. pcln option closed yeaterday at 3.78 so it needs to fall a little before buying the option. Implied and historical volatiltily are at 52 week lows
  • #1,260
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:37pm Sep 17, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
I think (too?) many are expecting a sell-off. Wasn't there a huge sell-off earlier this year when BB hinted at tapering? Usually what you least expect to happen happens; well that's my experience.
Judging by the financial press tea leaves I'd say the taper and its effects have been cooked in over the summer and now "the unexpected" would have to be a) no taper specifics announced by the FOMC or b) a more aggressive pullback on QE than the $10-$15 bio projected.

So, yeah, it's a punt....I didn't sell the w VXX puts, though.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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