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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #8,241
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:28am Sep 16, 2013 3:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
Regardless of retail crowd positioning, looking at the markets from strictly a MacD and RSX divergence basis on the H4 charts across all the pairs I monitor, this is what I see. EUR/USD Bearish AUD/USD Bullish USD/CAD Bullish AUD/NZD Mixed GBP/USD Mixed USD/JPY Mixed USD/CHF Bullish SP500 Bearish
How come they both bullish..
As far as I know they are moving in opposite direction.. aren't they ?
  • #8,242
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:31am Sep 16, 2013 3:31am
Sing

follow up
observation: we are seeing similar patterns across the commodity complex... coincidence?

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD SGD Daily 09.16.13.png Size: 59 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,243
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:36am Sep 16, 2013 3:36am
Quoting Mad Russian
the more people will think its to high , more higher it will go lol
LOL Yes that is how it works. However, right now there are a load of retail accounts a few dollars away from margin calls, so I don't think they will be piling on any more shorts.

Large gaps tend to bring out those who believe the gap has to close, but it also scares the s**t out of the ones who are already underwater. It is one of those moments where a reversal is either near or imminent. I would not rule out a final squeeze though. Seen it many times. The highest chance of a reversal is right after a parabolic move that causes a wild divergence... and this looks like it is turning into one of them.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,244
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:40am Sep 16, 2013 3:40am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} How come they both bullish.. As far as I know they are moving in opposite direction.. aren't they ?
I am only referring to the divergence. However, the Aussie is still oversold whilst the CAD is quite neutral in its range
You are correct that typically they move in opposite directions but that only applies to the long term. Long term I see more down for AUD/USD and more up for USD/CAD
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,245
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:44am Sep 16, 2013 3:44am
a smart article from a very smart man (Marc Chandler):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1694...the-week-ahead

highlights:

"...There are mathematically only three possibilities: the Fed does what the market expects, it does less, or it does more. Only under the last scenario would we expect U.S. Treasuries to sell off and for the dollar to rally and we would ascribe to it the lowest of odds..."

"...The market is pricing in a BOE rate hike a year or more sooner than Carney's forward guidance would have it..."
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,246
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:44am Sep 16, 2013 3:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
Regardless of retail crowd positioning, looking at the markets from strictly a MacD and RSX divergence basis on the H4 charts across all the pairs I monitor, this is what I see. EUR/USD Bearish AUD/USD Bullish USD/CAD Bullish AUD/NZD Mixed GBP/USD Mixed USD/JPY Mixed USD/CHF Bullish SP500 Bearish

  • #8,247
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:47am Sep 16, 2013 3:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} LOL Yes that is how it works. However, right now there are a load of retail accounts a few dollars away from margin calls, so I don't think they will be piling on any more shorts. Large gaps tend to bring out those who believe the gap has to close, but it also scares the s**t out of the ones who are already underwater. It is one of those moments where a reversal is either near or imminent. I would not rule out a final squeeze though. Seen it many times. The highest chance of a reversal is right after a parabolic move that causes a wild divergence......




Are we sure, that the Gap is a Gap, and not only an retail-client-gap, because brokers opened too late for the move?

On Xe.com there was no gap
  • #8,248
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:50am Sep 16, 2013 3:50am
Quoting theDHT
a smart article from a very smart man (Marc Chandler): http://seekingalpha.com/article/1694...the-week-ahead highlights: "...There are mathematically only three possibilities: the Fed does what the market expects, it does less, or it does more. Only under the last scenario would we expect U.S. Treasuries to sell off and for the dollar to rally and we would ascribe to it the lowest of odds..." "...The market is pricing in a BOE rate hike a year or more sooner than Carney's forward guidance would have it..."

Hehehe, that is the problem with statistics and predictions

no one sees a black-swan event until it hits



Besides that: my statistical system at Friday gave a nice sell signal in the evening, plus, the increase in price on EU was on nearly no volume.

Shit happens.

Money Management accounts for that
  • #8,249
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:52am Sep 16, 2013 3:52am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hehehe, that is the problem with statistics and predictions no one sees a black-swan event until it hits Besides that: my statistical system at Friday gave a nice sell signal in the evening, plus, the increase in price on EU was on nearly no volume. Shit happens. Money Management accounts for that
agreed 100%
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,250
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:58am Sep 16, 2013 3:58am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Are we sure, that the Gap is a Gap, and not only an retail-client-gap, because brokers opened too late for the move? On Xe.com there was no gap
Well since we are talking about the retail crowd, for all intents and purposes, there is a gap
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,251
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:58am Sep 16, 2013 3:58am
Quoting milam
{quote} Infy I am sorry to hear that, I wish all the traders on this thread would make money. You are not a muppet, you just read the market wrong. In the next post I will give my perception of the market..

Hi Milam,

I do not know if I do read the market wrong. Since I trade my EW beliefs coupled with some statistical methods like Murrey Math, market profile etc., sometimes I lose, sometimes I win.

when on a Friday evening price inclines and volume is nearly zero, you have a very good chance when shorting the instrument.


For me, it boils all down to game of probabilities


Looking forward to read your market assessment
  • #8,252
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:59am Sep 16, 2013 3:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am only referring to the divergence. However, the Aussie is still oversold whilst the CAD is quite neutral in its range You are correct that typically they move in opposite directions but that only applies to the long term. Long term I see more down for AUD/USD and more up for USD/CAD
Ok thanks..
  • #8,253
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:00am Sep 16, 2013 4:00am
Guys,

There is an interesting situation between GU and FXB Weekly & Daily chart as shown below.
Watch horizontal redline on both Weekly chart... what do you think ?

GU Weekly & Daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `3.png Size: 42 KB


FXB Weekly & Daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `2.png Size: 294 KB



Added:
That DOji on FXB Daily chart appear on friday (last week).. not today.
  • #8,254
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:00am Sep 16, 2013 4:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well since we are talking about the retail crowd, for all intents and purposes, there is a gap

Funny thing is:


we have seen over and over the non-existent-retail-gap on MT4. But it has really a very high chance to be closed the hours after. I find that very curious....
  • #8,255
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:03am Sep 16, 2013 4:03am
Quoting andexQ
Guys, There is an interesting situation between GU and FXB Weekly & Daily chart as shown below. Watch horizontal redline on both Weekly chart... what do you think ? GU Weekly & Daily chart {image} FXB Weekly & Daily chart {image}
That DOji on FXB Daily chart appear on friday (last week).. not today.
  • #8,256
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:06am Sep 16, 2013 4:06am
Quoting infinitus
Are we sure, that the Gap is a Gap, and not only an retail-client-gap, because brokers opened too late for the move? On Xe.com there was no gap
I keep a demo account with FXCM, they open earlier than my broker & there was no gap, in fact there were initially sells, then someone entered the market & pushed price higher. This is M5 & the dotted line is open.
Attached Image
  • #8,257
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:20am Sep 16, 2013 4:20am
Okay folks. Time for my daily outing... Beautiful blue sea, here I come. Please warm up the cappuccino machine

I'll be back for NY session unless I get distracted along the way
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,258
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:26am Sep 16, 2013 4:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay folks. Time for my daily outing... Beautiful blue sea, here I come. Please warm up the cappuccino machine I'll be back for NY session unless I get distracted along the way
Bye, see you soon..
  • #8,259
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:43am Sep 16, 2013 4:43am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} I keep a demo account with FXCM, they open earlier than my broker & there was no gap, in fact there were initially sells, then someone entered the market & pushed price higher. This is M5 & the dotted line is open. {image}
Both of my live accounts with them show Euro opening at 1.3354 at 2101 GMT and similar openings in other pairs,
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,260
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:46am Sep 16, 2013 4:46am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Milam, I do not know if I do read the market wrong. Since I trade my EW beliefs coupled with some statistical methods like Murrey Math, market profile etc., sometimes I lose, sometimes I win. when on a Friday evening price inclines and volume is nearly zero, you have a very good chance shorting the instrument. For me, it boils all down to game of probabilities Looking forward to read your market assessment
yes, for me is the same.

In brief I believe that a trader needs to find a simple way to take advantages of the market and invest in it, study all his nuances in its specific details, so each trades are taken without doubt in mind, knowing that the outcome will be many small winners, many small losses and occasionally some big win that will pay the bills.

Also is necessary to incur a self study to understand which way/pattern one needs to invest in, that is suitable to his personality in taking advantages of opportunities.

I also believe that knowledge can also represent an obstacle in trading if is not well digested and I posted something this weekend about it:

"Use whatever knowledge you have but see its limitations. Knowledge alone does not suffice; it has not heart. No amount of knowledge will nourish or sustain your spirit; it can never bring you ultimate happiness or peace. Life requires more than knowledge; it requires intense feeling and constant energy. Life demands right action if knowledge is to come alive."
Wherever you go, there you are.
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