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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #8,181
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:26pm Sep 15, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} its not a macd bro its a squeeze with histo
I've got same picture on my weekly MACD. Only TF where this looks to move upside, however it will need more cycles from lower TF before ending somewhere crossing up. Reason why short now for quite some hundred pips.

Waiting for D1 top getting capped with a nice Fractal hat means loosing some good piece of the cake.
Not willing to join for a nice journey in the south part of the kiwi map ? Okay 0.82 means let's go above, but really, can this be now? Anyway, I'm short and won't long this now.

Have been stepped out @0.81607+17.5, and @0.81954+17.5, but getting ready to scale new attempt
  • #8,182
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:33pm Sep 15, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} looking at that weekly I posted, I would not even know how to begin counting waves... seems to violate a bunch of fundamental rules... I guess I can argue a case for a C wave down... but its not clear at all... but again, compared to you (and some others here) i dont know jack about EW....
With EW there are a few ways to count it.

As I indicated, the current 5 wave expanding triangle could be the first part of a larger wave 2 up before the big fall to the 7100 to 7500 levels. It could reach as high as 8600 first (top of the much larger monthly triangle), but not before a retrace down.

It could also be a complex WXY correction, in which case it has just completed it's last wave and there will be no further upside whereby this high is the wave 2 and next move is an impulse down.

Either way, long term is down and that adds support to the strong dollar bias.

I don't have a fully marked up ew count to post (otherwise I would), but I've been eyeballing it for a while now.

What I do have though is a link to a slightly outdated dailyfx.com chart and analysis which somewhat supports my view.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eliottWaves_nzd-usd_body_nzdusd.png Size: 109 KB

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
-NZDUSD remains below its August high, failing to confirm the AUDUSD push above its August high.

-The larger trend is probably down as per the 3 wave advance from the June low although.

-A push to a new high would not necessarily turn things bullish as price would face channel resistance, the 200 day average, and the 50% retracement of the decline from the April high.

Trading Strategy: Recent comment was “Watching AUDUSD to exceed its August high while NZDUSD fails to exceed its August high to trigger the next big sell signal.” Divergence is in place between the 2 rates as long as NZDUSD is below the August high. I am bearish against that level. Exit half at .7930 (9/4 high).

LEVELS: .7960 .8030 .8090 | .8162 .8212 .8271
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,183
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:35pm Sep 15, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} This is low volume off-market hours. I use extreme caution interpreting signals during these times. Later in the Mondays sessions it will likely prove itself to be a false breakout.
Yep. Let's wait London opening session to slam some good hammer kicks on that pin and send it hundred pips under the ground.

Japan closed today. There will be few hours gap between Asian and European session with near zero volume & corrupted tech signals.

Care DHT, don't fall in the trap lol
  • #8,184
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:36pm Sep 15, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} I've got same picture on my weekly MACD. Only TF where this looks to move upside, however it will need more cycles from lower TF before ending somewhere crossing up. Reason why short now for quite some hundred pips. Waiting for D1 top getting capped with a nice Fractal hat means loosing some good piece of the cake. Not willing to join for a nice journey in the south part of the kiwi map ? Okay 0.82 means let's go above, but really, can this be now? Anyway, I'm short and won't long this now. Have been stepped out @0.81607+17.5, and @0.81954+17.5,...
you make a fair point,
I am not suggesting that anyone trade off the weekly!!

just making the case, that its possible, that we have a new trend on the horizon...

remember that RBNZ got pretty hawkish in last weeks announcement... 70-80 bps hike is not a small deal...

stack that on top of speculation re new fed chief, and summers stepping down... and we may have a fundamental reason to be long this pair...

just my 2 cents
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,185
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:44pm Sep 15, 2013 6:44pm
alright cap'n
im outta here

see you guys in a few hours!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,186
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:45pm Sep 15, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Yep. Let's wait London opening session to slam some good hammer kicks on that pin and send it hundred pips under the ground. Japan closed today. There will be few hours gap between Asian and European session with near zero volume & corrupted tech signals. Care DHT, don't fall in the trap lol
thanks for the lookout!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,187
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:46pm Sep 15, 2013 6:46pm
Quoting jpadvisor
Next issue: is tapering already priced? ★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
I guess yes, but only 10-15B gear switch back was maybe not (yet)...
  • #8,188
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:54pm Sep 15, 2013 6:54pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} I guess yes, but only 10-15B gear switch back was maybe not (yet)...
See U in a few hours
End of next London session should bring more lights in this kiwi affairs.
Cheers
  • #8,189
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:21pm Sep 15, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} See U in a few hours End of next London session should bring more lights in this kiwi affairs. Cheers
NZ Consumer confidence falls slightly
http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/consu...ghtly/5/167717
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,190
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:25pm Sep 15, 2013 7:25pm
Good morning Friends,


hope your weekend was fine :-)


Anyone had the guts to short the top in EU?


GU looks like set to reach the 599x before any bigger drop. We will see. My long term account is a bit bleeding on this, but I am a die-hard short here
  • #8,191
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:31pm Sep 15, 2013 7:31pm
EW on GU daily TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 57 KB
  • #8,192
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:41pm Sep 15, 2013 7:41pm
http://rt.com/op-edge/israel-syria-c...sarmament-866/

Disarming Syria brings Israel’s suspected WMD arsenals into focus
  • #8,193
  • Sep 15, 2013 8:42pm Sep 15, 2013 8:42pm
Fukushima again.....


http://rt.com/op-edge/fukushima-cata...-olympics-883/


must read.......


I take my pills........
  • #8,194
  • Sep 15, 2013 9:56pm Sep 15, 2013 9:56pm
Funny thing in EU thread:

quiet some members are suspended - has Twee finally enough?
  • #8,195
  • Sep 15, 2013 10:10pm Sep 15, 2013 10:10pm
the spies again.......

Hackers For Government Hire -A Growing And Deeply Disturbing Industry

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...rbing-industry
  • #8,196
  • Sep 15, 2013 10:33pm Sep 15, 2013 10:33pm
Given the recent price action on EURUSD these are the possibles moves a near term.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURO15sep.png Size: 108 KB
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #8,197
  • Sep 15, 2013 11:15pm Sep 15, 2013 11:15pm
I had a quick look at the pairs, seems like today is going to be a doggy day?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,198
  • Sep 15, 2013 11:18pm Sep 15, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting milam
I had a quick look at the pairs, seems like today is going to be a doggy day?
EU: looking for retracement.

GU: the same.

AU: short.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,199
  • Sep 15, 2013 11:49pm Sep 15, 2013 11:49pm
Good read: Trade Chart Patterns Like The Pros by Suri Duddella.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,200
  • Sep 15, 2013 11:59pm Sep 15, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting milam
{quote} EU: looking for retracement. GU: the same. AU: short.
I am looking for further developments for entries, I will update if....
Wherever you go, there you are.
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