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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,881
  • Edited 10:39am Sep 15, 2013 10:12am | Edited 10:39am
Three Kingdoms2010 - Episode 60, Episode 61

perception & truth.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post3394299


regards
  • #42,882
  • Edited 11:56am Sep 15, 2013 11:44am | Edited 11:56am
would it help if i not brush my teeth for 1 month?
i don't go pubic swimming pools, if that helps.


http://www.themindunleashed.org/2013...eal-gland.html

does dog wags his tail? or does a tail wags the dog?

regards
  • #42,883
  • Edited 3:01pm Sep 15, 2013 1:31pm | Edited 3:01pm
1 up for the world. Back to real world instead of magic advantages.
Mostly can sleep without worry being attacked by unseen hostile forces.(atomic particles)
thank you . Back to renewable natural energy resources.
I applaud such wisdom.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/50...-abe-tokyo.htm

be careful of monday markets opening.
watch usd/yen carefully, do not chase unnecessarily.
if gapping, may already price in, prices should adjust over time. This only 1st event.

regards

is feels like getting china out of opium trades.
looking forward for recovery after readjustments.

Also watch for non responding currencies.
eg cable and euros. essentially across the board inclusive crosses.
may have opportunities.

watch your sizes, unless you gambler, don't sell the house.
and be careful using stop orders , can fill anywhere, unless you have guarantee from counterparty to fill exactly at stop order prices.
  • #42,884
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:00pm Sep 15, 2013 4:00pm
Hi fti, I saw your post above, and also saw the attached. Aside from the headline, the article is really scary. I hope this gets under control soon!
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...ng-clusterfuck
  • #42,885
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:02pm Sep 15, 2013 4:02pm
Dollar is selling off big time. The announcement by Summers is probably the cause. Caution now as gaps are considered on a Sunday open.
  • #42,886
  • Edited 5:04pm Sep 15, 2013 4:54pm | Edited 5:04pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi fti, I saw your post above, and also saw the attached. Aside from the headline, the article is really scary. I hope this gets under control soon! http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...ng-clusterfuck
i wouldn't be too worried.
whats happened had happened.
Since i know little about nuclear energy, only thingy can do is let experts handle it.
As we sow , we reap.

Just trust God.
Only maybe we shouldn't build any more of the bombs kill ourselves.
Cheap energy supply , huh, lets see how cheap it gets.

Now i just praying that all the energy we using , not going light us up like a fireball all over the world and make a firery hell on earth.
please God, no earthquakes at wrong places, please.

regards
  • #42,887
  • Edited 5:32pm Sep 15, 2013 4:57pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting GEfx
Dollar is selling off big time. The announcement by Summers is probably the cause. Caution now as gaps are considered on a Sunday open.
oh, no complain please.
I am have great time buying the usd cheap, real cheap.
I not understand why, but i am ready for big battle.
or am i only one buying usd/yen. Is difficult sell usd with all the usd events all lined up.
no worry, "In God I trust"

Without leverage and <>3% of net worth per pop, takes how many % loss of value to chapter 11 me?
someone else best be careful about the chapter. Rememeber leyman?

I not have ability judge the new fed chair, he's done nothing yet.
worst case scenario, i go back to smoking, maybe.

regards

but i must warn, never get angry.
flow whit whats happening.
i only got my fills 1st rounds, they still scouts value.
so don't go fight, but 1 thing i will say.
i refuse trade usd/ yen on short side with the buildup of this terrain.
maybe nexy year. This year i choose trade long usd/yen or become sleepy dragon.

just to add, maybe i had bought the low of the day.
we'll see.

is not clever buy the low, but i 'll be last one argue with profit pips.

ooops 70 is not low
seems low is 40some.
and now i bid 80, please hit me. i want a little more, pls.
  • #42,888
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:32pm Sep 15, 2013 5:32pm
Inserted Video
  • #42,889
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:40pm Sep 15, 2013 5:40pm
thank you sir. enough.

regards
  • #42,890
  • Edited 9:35pm Sep 15, 2013 8:44pm | Edited 9:35pm

and it thickens.
is deep end stuff.
Fed reserve marshalls? everyone gets to play.

http://usahitman.com/pojacl/#more-28052

Inserted Video


in the last days, wolf in sheeps skins will be everywhere.
matthew 7:14-27 interesting.
last days?
matthew 24:4-14
matthew 24:27
matthew 24:30
http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/...30&version=KJV

regards

for now, we need watch markets closely.
whats happening?
ok some scouts home.
  • #42,891
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:09am Sep 16, 2013 4:09am
taming one's own mind is harder than taming the markets.
the kid inside the mind can easily get excited and then trapped. ( the pigs story?? )
FTI, r u there?
Enter Signature
  • #42,892
  • Sep 16, 2013 5:00am Sep 16, 2013 5:00am
Quoting CHFJunkie
taming one's own mind is harder than taming the markets. the kid inside the mind can easily get excited and then trapped. ( the pigs story?? ) FTI, r u there?
was sleeping.
is not that hard, breath and let go the kid.
cannot be bad situation, the market jerked opened and not moved since.
so make some tea , have a kitkat or whatever.
relax and wait.

somethings are happening, only no one seems know what.

regards
  • #42,893
  • Sep 16, 2013 5:07am Sep 16, 2013 5:07am
E/U 5M is showing distribution , broke to the downside but now back up again.
May be a trap to get shorts in , may be not, hunting sitting ducks to clear merket before the move?? anyway I'm playing the dance.
I was short but closed at small profit , better than nothing.
Enter Signature
  • #42,894
  • Edited 5:51am Sep 16, 2013 5:16am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting CHFJunkie
E/U 5M is showing distribution , broke to the downside but now back up again. May be a trap to get shorts in , may be not, hunting sitting ducks to clear merket before the move?? anyway I'm playing the dance. I was short but closed at small profit , better than nothing.
a pip in pocket is a pip in pocket.
i not want argue with it.

i c what you trying to say.
in times when one gets mixed signs.
then just clear the mind. no maybes, no nothing.
Just watch, its refusing move, anything becomes possible.
Just let her show hand.
is becomes easier, if squared.
Bias takes back seat, mind gets a rest and body get nice warm cup of tea.

regards

see if this may help you discipline the kid.
in life 1st hand experience is everything. 5 senses.
there's lots facts out there.
there's also lots fiction.
i still believe alice in wonderland, i know its not real, but it feels nice journey.
but if i see a rabbit jumps into big hole in ground, i 'll crawl in cautiously. very cautiously.

reminds me old story about the monkey pulling the the fish saying, don't worry, i'll save you from drowning, while pulling it up the tree.
  • #42,895
  • Sep 16, 2013 6:00am Sep 16, 2013 6:00am
Dear FTI,

May i ask a question on Money management please.
Am sure that it involves spirals within spirals.
What is the difference between attack sequence and levels of attack ?
From my understanding , attack sequence is eg. 1,1,2,3,5,7 ...
Am i right to say that this sequence can be grouped (1+1+2+3+5+7=19 troops) and be referred to as a "level" of attack ?
At the next level, i can take these 19 troops and make it my "base" and from then on build on it to form the next attach sequence ?
ie. (19) , (19) , 2x(19) , 3x(19) , 5x(19) , 7x(19) .... therein building the snowball..

And yes, i should not be rigid and fixate a set progression sequence cos the market is constantly changing.

Best Regards,
  • #42,896
  • Edited 6:29am Sep 16, 2013 6:04am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting appleboy
Dear FTI, May i ask a question on Money management please. Am sure that it involves spirals within spirals. What is the difference between attack sequence and levels of attack ? From my understanding , attack sequence is eg. 1,1,2,3,5,7 ... Am i right to say that this sequence can be grouped (1+1+2+3+5+7=19 troops) and be referred to as a "level" of attack ? At the next level, i can take these 19 troops and make it my "base" and from then on build on it to form the next attach sequence ? ie. (19) , (19) , 2x(19) , 3x(19) , 5x(19) , 7x(19) .......
apple thinking deep?

attack/defense sequence is the possibilities of contingencies and mm strategies that you book allows you.
level is point whereby book is cumulatively at in that curve.

the seq you showing is regrouping. you would do that if you intention to escalate the battle only.

funny thing is you using fibo seq but any reasons why it goes to 7 after 5?



regards
  • #42,897
  • Edited 11:24am Sep 16, 2013 10:51am | Edited 11:24am
Dear fti,

Seems i have represented my thoughts wrongly.
Yes , you are right, i am using a fibo sequence, so it should be 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 +++
Let me try my question again.
Here goes...

i have read mention about attack sequence and levels of attack.
What is the difference between attack sequence and levels of attack ?
From my understanding , attack sequence is eg. 1,1,2,3,5,8... with 1 troop being my "base"
Am i right to say that this sequence can be grouped (1+1+2+3+5+8=20 troops) and be referred to as a "level" of attack ?
At the next level, i can take these 20 troops and make it my "base" and from then on build on it to form the next attach sequence ?
ie. (20) , (20) , 2x(20) , 3x(20) , 5x(20) , 8x(20) .... therein building the snowball..

Yes , this sequence shows regrouping , with the intention to escalate into battle.

Please correct if i am wrong, but my intention in doing this is to attack on a 1,1,2,3,5,8 etc... basis.
If i am on the right side of the trend, then i will keep my basis close and add to positions linearly.
however, if i am wrong, i will decide if i want to move into rescue mode.
If so, my troops committed up to that point (in this example, 20 troops) in time will be grouped into one, forming a new base size.
From then on, i will attempt to rescue my position based on the new base size, ie. (20) , (20) , 2x(20) , 3x(20) , 5x(20) , 8x(20) .... to bring my average position close to market in order to exit gracefully.
This does not seem like geometric rescue to me, but it sure does snowball like mad !

Would this be a fair way of deploying and rescuing my troops ?

Also, kindly elaborate what you mean by "level is point whereby book is cumulatively at in that curve."

Thank you v much for your wise counsel !

Best Regards.
  • #42,898
  • Sep 16, 2013 11:12am Sep 16, 2013 11:12am
FTI, what about no-loss stop?
I tend to put a no loss stop when trade goes my way 30+ pips ( sure if dance permits )? what do you think about it according to your philosophy?
Enter Signature
  • #42,899
  • Sep 16, 2013 12:11pm Sep 16, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting appleboy
Dear fti, Seems i have represented my thoughts wrongly. Yes , you are right, i am using a fibo sequence, so it should be 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 +++ Let me try my question again. Here goes... i have read mention about attack sequence and levels of attack. What is the difference between attack sequence and levels of attack ? From my understanding , attack sequence is eg. 1,1,2,3,5,8... with 1 troop being my "base" Am i right to say that this sequence can be grouped (1+1+2+3+5+8=20 troops) and be referred to as a "level" of attack ? At the next level,...
pls don't take this personally.
but i like give you a wakeup call.
your description of a possible Mo is a cowards way trade markets.
when you correct in analysis you not have gut attack and when you wrong you plan snowball yourself out of the woods.
in others words when you correct you mindset is no balls attack.
when you wrong you try be hero and go all out.

think deeper, i not going give you technique, which is what you asking.
i can only give you directions learn to trade properly.
think more.
DEMO.

regards
  • #42,900
  • Edited 12:55pm Sep 16, 2013 12:21pm | Edited 12:55pm
Quoting CHFJunkie
FTI, what about no-loss stop? I tend to put a no loss stop when trade goes my way 30+ pips ( sure if dance permits )? what do you think about it according to your philosophy?
must be full moon today.

you , my friend want play robot.
there is no such thing as 30 pips 50 pips rules.
no rules.
you in when you see is good then you strategise.
when things stales you bail out.

there no such 30 pips 50 pips or any pips mindset.
If you lazy babysit then you take blind risk, and thats that.

maybe you asking me all this just so you can get approval from me be robotic.
either that or you no understand OTC market structure.
OTC markets are different from regulated markets.
in regulated markets prices bid offers are prices that the markets trades.
OTC markets are markets where there are market makers and they can make markets anywhere they so wish to protect their book.

let me give you a feel example.
if i make you price 10/12 and you buy me 100 million at 12
and you come to me and ask me price again where will i make markets?
and if you didn't come back again where will i make markets to try square out?( with a profit in the open markets?)

same 10/12 and you buy 10,000
if you ask again where will i quote you?
otherewise where will i quote market again?


regards

maybe i give another example , if you never seen market making skills before.
lets say there 10 traders
each can trade 1 mio.
you come into market, and they all quote you 10/12
and you buy 50 mio at 12, what do you think will be next price in markets?

scenario 2.
same 10 traders
you buy 1 mio at 12
where will next price be?

then you put your stops in and then you tell me what the traders will be targetting to square out, in each scenario.
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