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Thdbird83 Questions All-in-one

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 25, 2006 8:33am Jun 25, 2006 8:33am
Hi

In the week of 19~23 Jun 2006 i have spoted two shorts by using Support/Resistance and EMA.

The file attached is how I speculate the short @ 23 jun 2006 at abt 12 pm...

what i thought was that should a trend touches "2nd" Support line... then the trend is strong?

If it shld touch a "3rd" support line.... then..... the trend is confirmed...

PLease do comment....
(1) how true?
(2) am i crazy?

PS: By using technique i had caught the trend twice... for this week....
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  • #2
  • Jun 25, 2006 12:25pm Jun 25, 2006 12:25pm
I think I need to get some more information from you in here....How can you say that the price action identified the trend as "Strong" first & then it confirmed the trend....I understand that the trend is confirmed first, then it is being judged as strong or weak???


Thanks,

Nader
  • #3
  • Jun 28, 2006 3:36am Jun 28, 2006 3:36am
Hmmmmm.... i m not good with words... but i'll try my best to explain how i did my analysis.



basically i will identify the support and resistance line and draw a horizontal trendline,as you can see in the picture above.

If the market approaches "1st level" support trendline, there's a possibility that it would drop further.

And should it touhes the "2nd Level" support trendline, the chances of dropping further are increased.

Finally, if reaches the 3rd then, its for sure drop down.

This is what i had observed.... frankly this observation do not tell when it will boounce back up...(hahaha sadly to say, have to work on it).

Please do comment about these observation... you guys are more expert.. i m juz a noobie
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  • #4
  • Jun 28, 2006 3:55am Jun 28, 2006 3:55am
I would offer the following. In this instance. If you have more examples, I would be happy to look. Also, how far back have you tested this idea?

Thanks Scott


Quoting thdbird83
Hmmmmm.... i m not good with words... but i'll try my best to explain how i did my analysis.



basically i will identify the support and resistance line and draw a horizontal trendline,as you can see in the picture above.

If the market approaches "1st level" support trendline, there's a possibility that it would drop further.

And should it touhes the "2nd Level" support trendline, the chances of dropping further are increased.

Finally, if reaches the 3rd then, its for sure drop down.

This is what i had observed.... frankly this observation do not tell when it will boounce back up...(hahaha sadly to say, have to work on it).

Please do comment about these observation... you guys are more expert.. i m juz a noobie
Attached Image
  • #5
  • Edited 4:18am Jun 28, 2006 4:09am | Edited 4:18am
I would have used my price projection and placed a short at level 2 and held on until my projection was hit. GMMAs would be very good at showing this.

Edit: I just looked at my chart and price got within 18 pips of this projection, so it would have been a good trade. When you increase your information about a price movement, you decrease risk, but you also decrease potenial profit. One has to decide how to balance those two bits of info.

Thanks scott


Quoting smjones
I would offer the following. In this instance. If you have more examples, I would be happy to look. Also, how far back have you tested this idea?

Thanks Scott
  • #6
  • Jun 28, 2006 4:16am Jun 28, 2006 4:16am
This is very similar with a system I am testing for a while. I would have waited for a retest of one of the first 2 lines.
-soso
  • #7
  • Jun 28, 2006 11:38am Jun 28, 2006 11:38am
I had tested it for that week alone.... the earlier drop was anticipated too.... but i m still verifying this week... seems like a hit... haaa....

well juz wait and see for this wk's performance...

hmmmm... can anyone recommend an indicator to add in the anticipate the entry point? what indicator is usually used? I m using 15 min chart... MACD is a complicated one for me at least... RSI... i find it not realiable....(perhaps i don't get the settings right to correlate with 15 min charts)
what is GMMA???
  • #8
  • Jun 28, 2006 11:46am Jun 28, 2006 11:46am
The information you want is in this thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=5933


Quoting thdbird83
I had tested it for that week alone.... the earlier drop was anticipated too.... but i m still verifying this week... seems like a hit... haaa....

well juz wait and see for this wk's performance...

hmmmm... can anyone recommend an indicator to add in the anticipate the entry point? what indicator is usually used? I m using 15 min chart... MACD is a complicated one for me at least... RSI... i find it not realiable....(perhaps i don't get the settings right to correlate with 15 min charts)
what is GMMA???
  • #9
  • Jun 29, 2006 12:32am Jun 29, 2006 12:32am
This is how i plotted the so called 1st, 2nd support lines.... just for those who are figuring out....

Appologise for the poor quality picture...

i m not a graphic geek hehehe.... i fail my arts.........


SMJONES.... what do u mean by your last sentence mentioned in the picture above?
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  • #10
  • Jun 29, 2006 12:33am Jun 29, 2006 12:33am
SMJONES

"""...you have given up all your moves..."""

what do you mean by this..
  • #11
  • Last Post: Jun 29, 2006 4:11am Jun 29, 2006 4:11am
Quoting thdbird83
SMJONES

"""...you have given up all your moves..."""

what do you mean by this..

Well, I did not say this sentence. I said you have given up all the move. That means by waiting until level three, there is very little room left for price to move on this 15 min chart... Perhaps in a longer term it might move down more, but not necessarily. If you look at the chart now you will see it only went to about 1.2473, which is about what my price projection said it would go.

Thanks scott
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