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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #8,161
  • Sep 15, 2013 3:55pm Sep 15, 2013 3:55pm
Show starts in 5 minutes...

good luck this week!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,162
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:10pm Sep 15, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Very good docs. I believe we can nominate you as the official documentation officer of this threat !
Few interesting things from that article:

As for taper: IMO, they will taper much less than most expect and the result will cause them to untaper very quickly.
the only reason anybody else is willing to buy US debt at these levels is because of the FED buying, so they'll be untapering in a hurry just to cover the buying gap left when the 'organic market' vanishes

the US government is spending WAY more than it makes (ponzi)

he budget deficit is expected to be sharply-reduced for the next few years from the trillion-plus annual deficits of the last few years." (how?)
If the budget deficit is going to be sharply reduced then the federal government has to take in more revenue or it has to spend less. Neither of these thing is happening now or going to happen.
Payroll withholding money is down. The only jobs being created are part time jobs. And government never spends less. Ever.

Debt ceiling ? QE to end next year. Is there a country we don't know about somewhere, that is going to magically produce a trillion dollars in savings to loan to the bankrupt US? Perfect smoke screen for taking down the United States of America and turning it into Greece. The slow central bankster pillage of sovereign wealth.

Reading the various news and blog sites this weekend, the common view appears be that
1) Just about everyone expects the Fed to taper and signal an endpoint for QE
2) Taper is built-in to stock and bond markets already
3) Gold will tank (for some reason taper has yet to be "built-in" to the current price)
4) Gold has been falling for 2 years on anticipation of tapering coming so its a case of sell the rumor as well as the news
5) If you don't expect any or all of the above you are a buffoon/fool/gold bug (those descriptions used interchangebly, apparently).
  • #8,163
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:19pm Sep 15, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting milam
{quote} second entry 9291 with SL 9391
+52 and +102, made 15.7% on 5 days including weekend.
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,164
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:20pm Sep 15, 2013 4:20pm
100 pips gap all accross the ccy board. That's quite much for a week-end gap.

My NZDUSD plan is getting murdered...
  • #8,165
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:33pm Sep 15, 2013 4:33pm
fokin hell!
nice open!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,166
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:33pm Sep 15, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting Delta1One
100 pips gap all accross the ccy board. That's quite much for a week-end gap. My NZDUSD plan is getting murdered...
If that's not a great opportunity to load another NZD/USD short and USD/CHF long, I don't know what is.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,167
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:42pm Sep 15, 2013 4:42pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post6952590

lol......
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #8,168
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:45pm Sep 15, 2013 4:45pm
missed the boat on that ozzie! shes off like a rocket!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,169
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:49pm Sep 15, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting Delta1One
100 pips gap all accross the ccy board. That's quite much for a week-end gap. My NZDUSD plan is getting murdered...

Good morning,

A bit lucky here, but all part of the deal.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,170
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:53pm Sep 15, 2013 4:53pm
ozzie looks like it may take the 99 mark... sounds crazy, maybe its because I have not slept much and its very late,

charts trw

on a risk weighted basis, i prefer kiwi
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,171
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:58pm Sep 15, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} If that's not a great opportunity to load another NZD/USD short and USD/CHF long, I don't know what is.
gaps causing island like this are always to be quickly revisited before any further move.

For NZDUSD, care because price above 0.82 is quite a clear signal to many buyers to go long for next targets.

But for me, I'm still confident in an exhausted kiwi set for an overdue rally south. It has just crossed above the top channel resistance, let's see if bounce or back between the bands.
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  • #8,172
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:08pm Sep 15, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} gaps causing island like this are always to be quickly revisited before any further move. For NZDUSD, care because price above 0.82 is quite a clear signal to many buyers to go long for next targets. But for me, I'm still confident in an exhausted kiwi set for an overdue rally south. It has just crossed above the top channel resistance, let's see if bounce or back between the bands. {image} {image} {image} {image}
This is low volume off-market hours. I use extreme caution interpreting signals during these times. Later in the Mondays sessions it will likely prove itself to be a false breakout.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,173
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:18pm Sep 15, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} had read this earlier. El-Erian, seems quite surprized that the bond market is becoming dislocated. His expectation seems to be that the US economy is "healing" and suggests the Fed is annoyed that it's taking so long! I don't know... healing from what? Too much debt? too much misguided management? A rotten core? So putting more of the same food in the green fishbowl is going to turn Goldie right-side up? Some people are co-opted so thoroughly they don't seem to see the cause nor the effect. I like the way he refers to bonds "being affected...

yo!

mailbox
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,174
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:23pm Sep 15, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} gaps causing island like this are always to be quickly revisited before any further move. For NZDUSD, care because price above 0.82 is quite a clear signal to many buyers to go long for next targets. But for me, I'm still confident in an exhausted kiwi set for an overdue rally south. It has just crossed above the top channel resistance, let's see if bounce or back between the bands. {image} {image} {image} {image}
How high can the Kiwi fly. Oh wait!!! Kiwis can't fly... or can they?
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,175
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:39pm Sep 15, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} How high can the Kiwi fly. Oh wait!!! Kiwis can't fly... or can they? {image}

hmmm... our Kiwi weekly charts look very different for some reason...... never mind...

Just playing devils advocate here

Kiwi

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(I know I said no charts tonight, but you got me... besides... I already admitted to being an addict!...)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,176
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:46pm Sep 15, 2013 5:46pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} hmmm... our Kiwi weekly charts look very different for some reason...... never mind... Just playing devils advocate here Kiwi Weekly {image} (I know I said no charts tonight, but you got me... besides... I already admitted to being an addict!...)
Oh yes of course, but this 5 wave expanding triangle just completed wave 1. Now we need wave 2 and wave 2 is usually quite deep... much like the larger wave 2 you have pointed out. That one made it just past the 78.6 level. This wave 2 of 3 should produce a similar retrace.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,177
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:52pm Sep 15, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Oh yes of course, but this 5 wave expanding triangle just completed wave 1. Now we need wave 2 and wave 2 is usually quite deep... much like the larger wave 2 you have pointed out. That one made it just past the 78.6 level. This wave 2 of 3 should produce a similar retrace.
looking at that weekly I posted, I would not even know how to begin counting waves...

seems to violate a bunch of fundamental rules...

I guess I can argue a case for a C wave down... but its not clear at all... but again, compared to you (and some others here) i dont know jack about EW....
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,178
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:00pm Sep 15, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} hmmm... our Kiwi weekly charts look very different for some reason...... never mind... Just playing devils advocate here Kiwi Weekly {image} (I know I said no charts tonight, but you got me... besides... I already admitted to being an addict!...)
On your MACD it is technically simply not possible to cross above only with the current move or any of its extension without a new good cycle down.
  • #8,179
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:04pm Sep 15, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} On your MACD it is technically simply not possible to cross above only with the current move or any of its extension without a new good cycle down.
its not a macd bro

its a squeeze with histo
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,180
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:06pm Sep 15, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} How high can the Kiwi fly. Oh wait!!! Kiwis can't fly... or can they? {image}
lol
Ok we know kiwi can't fly...but all these buyers above 0.82, do they know that ?
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