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Trading wisdom from 30 Under 30

  • #41
  • Edited 11:30pm Sep 14, 2013 11:11pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting Starry
{quote} lolz no! definitely no , not a girl. I just liked the picture (it relaxes me and reminds me of water and surfing) anyways .... tick charts are quite fun. they have a lot of moves on them tick chart for friday {image}
woops, sorry if I came off sounding like an a-hole lol. picture threw me off.

anyways, lets see what I can do with that chart.. looks like the same old time-increment candlestick chart.

btw, on average, if you don't mind answering, how long does it take for each 100 tick bar to form? I know it varies.. but I'm guessing 5-10 minutes? never mind, I see the time stamps on the bottom of the chart now lol, wow that's pretty fast...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100tick.png Size: 112 KB


Recap-
Chap. 2: Waging of War.
2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then
men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay
siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.

Chap. 3: Attack by Stratagem.
5. The general, unable to control his irritation, will launch his men to the
assault like swarming ants, with the result that one-third of his men are
slain, while the town still remains untaken. Such are the disastrous effects
of a siege.

Chap. 8: Variations in Tactics.
3. There are roads which must not be followed, armies which must be not

attacked, towns which must not be besieged, positions which must not be

contested, commands of the sovereign which must not be obeyed.

Basically, since price had already been contested in the town area before (labeled 5), price might have consolidated again, or done whatever, hard to tell. So if it was a trade taken before price got to that area again (labeled 6), then I would watch closely. If it was a trade to be taken At 6, I wouldn't do it, not before more confirmation/ signs. Apparently price was rejected from that area, found supply in that area.

Quoting Starry
oh but i am a young trader, under 30. started last january, and its been a roller coaster ride.
Welcome to my little thread, and thanks for your contribution
  • #42
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:37am Sep 15, 2013 5:37am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} woops, sorry if I came off sounding like an a-hole lol. picture threw me off. anyways, lets see what I can do with that chart.. looks like the same old time-increment candlestick chart. btw, on average, if you don't mind answering, how long does it take for each 100 tick bar to form? I know it varies.. but I'm guessing 5-10 minutes? never mind, I see the time stamps on the bottom of the chart now lol, wow that's pretty fast... {image} Recap- Chap. 2: Waging of War. 2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then...

hey, that looks really good!

clear analysis, that seems a fun way to trade.

yeah, its an average of 1/2 minute - 1 minute, and on really large bars, 3 seconds or so.
  • #43
  • Sep 15, 2013 3:16pm Sep 15, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting Starry
hey, that looks really good! clear analysis, that seems a fun way to trade. yeah, its an average of 1/2 minute - 1 minute, and on really large bars, 3 seconds or so.
If you liked what you saw regarding supply/ demand.. I got it from here: Price is Everything http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=230888

As for the source of the AOW material...

Chap. 4: Tactical Dispositions.
"Being secret brings the victory; being transparent, defeat."

Quoting Starry
I love it! Honestly, I was thinking of naming my trading method that i am making and learning 'surfing the market!' Thats why i have the user avatar i have, because it reminds of the waves Really jealous, you should go surfing more lolz..... Ive never had the chance to, for some reason I imagine it is going to be awesome when i have the chance. Btw. YES! There is a feeling of riding the ups and downs like a pro, you just have to get into a certain sort of mentality. Then, atleast for me, my skill develops quicker this way. Thats also why I like trading eurusd 100 tick charts (u might want to give it a try).
By the way, I'm going surfing again in a few hours. Hope you get to try it out sometime!
I'm just getting my license for scuba diving. Maybe I'll make a post about that too.. it's pretty fun.

Surfing and Scuba Diving... One is about being on top of the waves, for the other the goal is to keep under.
All the while trying not to visit Davy Jone's Locker...
  • #44
  • Sep 15, 2013 3:41pm Sep 15, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} If you liked what you saw regarding supply/ demand.. I got it from here: Price is Everything http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=230888 As for the source of the AOW material... Chap. 4: Tactical Dispositions. "Being secret brings the victory; being transparent, defeat." {quote} By the way, I'm going surfing again in a few hours. Hope you get to try it out sometime! I'm just getting my license for scuba diving. Maybe I'll make a post about that too.. it's pretty fun. Surfing and Scuba Diving... One is about...
argg! you're in europe, so not fair. Theres probably so many closeby good places to surf/scuba

gotta go to california or hawaii or something

have fun
  • #45
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:55am Sep 16, 2013 10:55am
Quoting Starry
{quote} argg! you're in europe, so not fair. Theres probably so many closeby good places to surf/scuba gotta go to california or hawaii or something have fun
no, I'm not from Europe!! where did you get that idea.. I've been to Italy before though. visited lots of museums and cathedrals. I've also been to Germany (although just the airport..)

Recap-

Chap. 9: The Army On the March.
15. Country in which there are precipitous cliffs with torrents running between,
deep natural hollows, confined places, tangled thickets, quagmires
and crevasses, should be left with all possible speed and not approached.

Book translation lists these as: Heaven's Torrents, Heaven's Wells, Heaven's Prisons, Heaven's Nets, Heaven's Traps, and Heaven's Cracks.

I'm not going to think up a specific market related scenario for each type of terrain. I think that traders should just realize there are "terrains" on charts that should be approached with caution:: selling tops, buying bottoms, and trading when the charts are congested/ barely moving (low liquidity)...
  • #46
  • Sep 16, 2013 11:37am Sep 16, 2013 11:37am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} no, I'm not from Europe!! where did you get that idea.. I've been to Italy before though. visited lots of museums and cathedrals. I've also been to Germany (although just the airport..) Recap- Chap. 9: The Army On the March. 15. Country in which there are precipitous cliffs with torrents running between, deep natural hollows, confined places, tangled thickets, quagmires and crevasses, should be left with all possible speed and not approached. Book translation lists these as: Heaven's Torrents, Heaven's Wells, Heaven's Prisons, Heaven's...

you have vatican city on your profile , thats why! (Kk , but its close to europe!)

Ive been to italy also, i love their gelato and pizza yummmm
Been to vatican city too, when i was in france and took the train up there
  • #47
  • Edited 4:02am Sep 17, 2013 3:49am | Edited 4:02am
Quoting Starry
you have vatican city on your profile , thats why! (Kk , but its close to europe!) Ive been to italy also, i love their gelato and pizza yummmm Been to vatican city too, when i was in france and took the train up there
Nope, i'm an asian american living in asia.



Before I go into Chap. 10, the book commentary pointed out something interesting. Anybody remember, way back in the first chapter, a list of "five constant factors" governing the Art of War? They were: (1) The Moral Law; (2) Heaven; (3) Earth; (4) The Commander; (5) Method and discipline.


Now, presenting the following chapter... (charts not included )


Chapter 10: Terrain.


1. Sun Tzu said: We may distinguish six kinds of terrain, to wit: (1) Accessible

ground; (2) entangling ground; (3) temporizing ground; (4) narrow

passes; (5) precipitous heights; (6) positions at a great distance from the

enemy.

-"The 3rd and 6th terrain have no reference to the configuration of the country. Only the 4th and 5th can be said to convey any definite geographic idea."


2. Ground which can be freely traversed by both sides is called accessible.

The foreign exchange market is a very liquid market (it is a huge market), and you can buy long and sell short. Very accessible I must say. If you want to put in an order, just pay the spread. And there will always be someone on the other side to take your trade at the price that you want. (broker talk )


3. With regard to ground of this nature, be before the enemy in occupying

the raised and sunny spots, and carefully guard your line of supplies.

Then you will be able to fight with advantage.


4. Ground which can be abandoned but is hard to re-occupy is called entangling.


5. From a position of this sort, if the enemy is unprepared, you may sally

forth and defeat him. But if the enemy is prepared for your coming, and

you fail to defeat him, then, return being impossible, disaster will ensue.


6. When the position is such that neither side will gain by making the first

move, it is called temporizing ground.


7. In a position of this sort, even though the enemy should offer us an attractive

bait, it will be advisable not to stir forth, but rather to retreat, thus

enticing the enemy in his turn; then, when part of his army has come out,

we may deliver our attack with advantage.


8. With regard to narrow passes, if you can occupy them first, let them be

strongly garrisoned and await the advent of the enemy.


9. Should the army forestall you in occupying a pass, do not go after him if

the pass is fully garrisoned, but only if it is weakly garrisoned.


10. With regard to precipitous heights, if you are beforehand with your adversary,

you should occupy the raised and sunny spots, and there wait

for him to come up.


11. If the enemy has occupied them before you, do not follow him, but retreat

and try to entice him away.


12. If you are situated at a great distance from the enemy, and the strength of

the two armies is equal, it is not easy to provoke a battle, and fighting will

be to your disadvantage.


13. These six are the principles connected with Earth. The general who has

attained a responsible post must be careful to study them.


14. Now an army is exposed to six several calamities, not arising from natural

causes, but from faults for which the general is responsible. These are: (1)

Flight; (2) insubordination; (3) collapse; (4) ruin; (5) disorganization; (6)

rout.


15. Other conditions being equal, if one force is hurled against another ten

times its size, the result will be the flight of the former.


16. When the common soldiers are too strong and their officers too weak,

the result is insubordination. When the officers are too strong and the

common soldiers too weak, the result is collapse.


17. When the higher officers are angry and insubordinate, and on meeting

the enemy give battle on their own account from a feeling of resentment,

before the commander-in-chief can tell whether or not he is in a position

to fight, the result is ruin.


18. When the general is weak and without authority; when his orders are not

clear and distinct; when there are no fixes duties assigned to officers and

men, and the ranks are formed in a slovenly haphazard manner, the result

is utter disorganization.


19. When a general, unable to estimate the enemy’s strength, allows an inferior

force to engage a larger one, or hurls a weak detachment against a

powerful one, and neglects to place picked soldiers in the front rank, the

result must be rout.


20. These are six ways of courting defeat, which must be carefully noted by

the general who has attained a responsible post.


21. The natural formation of the country is the soldier’s best ally; but a power

of estimating the adversary, of controlling the forces of victory, and of

shrewdly calculating difficulties, dangers and distances, constitutes the

test of a great general.


22. He who knows these things, and in fighting puts his knowledge into practice,

will win his battles. He who knows them not, nor practices them, will

surely be defeated.


23. If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight, even though the

ruler forbid it; if fighting will not result in victory, then you must not fight

even at the ruler’s bidding.


24. The general who advances without coveting fame and retreats without

fearing disgrace, whose only thought is to protect his country and do good

service for his sovereign, is the jewel of the kingdom.


25. Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the

deepest valleys; look upon them as your own beloved sons, and they will

stand by you even unto death.


26. If, however, you are indulgent, but unable to make your authority felt;

kind-hearted, but unable to enforce your commands; and incapable, moreover,

of quelling disorder: then your soldiers must be likened to spoilt

children; they are useless for any practical purpose.


27. If we know that our own men are in a condition to attack, but are unaware

that the enemy is not open to attack, we have gone only halfway towards

victory.


28. If we know that the enemy is open to attack, but are unaware that our own

men are not in a condition to attack, we have gone only halfway towards

victory.


29. If we know that the enemy is open to attack, and also know that our men

are in a condition to attack, but are unaware that the nature of the ground

makes fighting impracticable, we have still gone only halfway towards

victory.


30. Hence the experienced soldier, once in motion, is never bewildered; once

he has broken camp, he is never at a loss.


31. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory

will not stand in doubt; if you know Heaven and know Earth, you

may make your victory complete.

-This is a repeat of what was said in Chap. 3


In the above chapter, what is highlighted in Green are the Six Different forms of Terrain, and the Six Ways of Defeat (for which the General is responsible).
Again:
Quoting 4tiger
I'm not going to think up a specific market related scenario for each type of terrain. I think that traders should just realize there are "terrains" on charts that should be approached with caution:: selling tops, buying bottoms, and trading when the charts are congested/ barely moving (low liquidity)...
As for the Six Ways of Defeat, you can't just expect your troops to win your battles for you. Pick and Choose battles, learn to command. Win or lose, you are the one in command and thus the one responsible.

Special note for #26 and #30:
26. If, however, you are indulgent, but unable to make your authority felt;
kind-hearted, but unable to enforce your commands; and incapable, moreover,
of quelling disorder: then your soldiers must be likened to spoilt
children; they are useless for any practical purpose.
-Duke Li wrote, "Those who fear me will not fear the enemy. Those who fear the enemy do not fear me."
Powerful words, and in my opinion, spoken like a true General (or Duke for that matter).

30. Hence the experienced soldier, once in motion, is never bewildered; once

he has broken camp, he is never at a loss.
-Other translation, "The Wise Warrior, When he moves, Is never confused; When he acts, Is never at a loss."

Again, very inspirational words. I wish to be a Wise Warrior too.
  • #48
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:44am Sep 18, 2013 3:44am
After a long month... finally closed a losing position and bit the bullet on USDCHF, right before the FOMC statements coming soon.


I hope to be done with AOW by Sunday (I'm on Taipei time here). I hope I am not rushing. I don't expect my mindset to be fixed just by reading a book, I will have to apply the methods. But definitely the book has helped me structure my thoughts, and it has been motivational.


I just wiki'd Bonsai.. maybe the mind is something like a Bonsai tree.


All in due course...


In the commentary for this next chapter, the Translator writes... "As other commentators and translators have pointed out, this particular chapter is long, disorganized and repetitive, and it shows signs of having been put together from disparate fragments, possibly jumbled bamboo strips (as indeed does much of The Art of War)."


After reading the chapter, I still feel that the information in there is important. Here, Sun-tzu lays out instructions for each type of ground (attack/ do not attack/ do not fight... etc.) However, I feel that these are more or less just guidelines, because when it comes to combat, life/death situations, one must take the situation as it presents itself (this I assume, having not been in combat before).


Chapter 11: The Nine Situations.


1. Sun Tzu said: The art of war recognizes nine varieties of ground:

(a) Dispersive ground;

(b) facile ground;

(c) contentious ground;

(d) open ground;

(e) ground of intersecting highways;

(f) serious ground;

(g) difficult ground;

(h) hemmed-in ground;

(i) desperate ground.


2. When a chieftain is fighting in his own territory, it is dispersive ground.


3. When he has penetrated into hostile territory, but to no great distance, it

is facile ground.


4. Ground the possession of which imports great advantage to either side, is

contentious ground.


5. Ground on which each side has liberty of movement is open ground.


6. Ground which forms the key to three contiguous states, so that he who

occupies it first has most of the Empire at his command, is a ground of

intersecting highways.


7. When an army has penetrated into the heart of a hostile country, leaving

a number of fortified cities in its rear, it is serious ground.


8. Mountain forests, rugged steeps, marshes and fens–all country that is

hard to traverse: this is difficult ground.


9. Ground which is reached through narrow gorges, and from which we can

only retire by tortuous paths, so that a small number of the enemy would

suffice to crush a large body of our men: this is hemmed in ground.


10. Ground on which we can only be saved from destruction by fighting

without delay, is desperate ground.


11. On dispersive ground, therefore, fight not. On facile ground, halt not. On

contentious ground, attack not.


12. On open ground, do not try to block the enemy’s way. On the ground of

intersecting highways, join hands with your allies.


13. On serious ground, gather in plunder. In difficult ground, keep steadily

on the march.


14. On hemmed-in ground, resort to stratagem. On desperate ground, fight.


15. Those who were called skillful leaders of old knew how to drive a wedge

between the enemy’s front and rear; to prevent co-operation between his

large and small divisions; to hinder the good troops from rescuing the

bad, the officers from rallying their men.


16. When the enemy’s men were united, they managed to keep them in disorder.


17. When it was to their advantage, they made a forward move; when

otherwise, they stopped still.


18. If asked how to cope with a great host of the enemy in orderly array and

on the point of marching to the attack, I should say: "Begin by seizing

something which your opponent holds dear; then he will be amenable to

your will."


19. Rapidity is the essence of war: take advantage of the enemy’s unreadiness,

make your way by unexpected routes, and attack unguarded spots.


20. The following are the principles to be observed by an invading force: The

further you penetrate into a country, the greater will be the solidarity of

your troops, and thus the defenders will not prevail against you.


21. Make forays in fertile country in order to supply your army with food.


22. Carefully study the well-being of your men, and do not overtax them.

Concentrate your energy and hoard your strength. Keep your army continually

on the move, and devise unfathomable plans.


23. Throw your soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they

will prefer death to flight. If they will face death, there is nothing they

may not achieve. Officers and men alike will put forth their uttermost

strength.


24. Soldiers when in desperate straits lose the sense of fear. If there is no

place of refuge, they will stand firm. If they are in hostile country, they

will show a stubborn front. If there is no help for it, they will fight hard.


25. Thus, without waiting to be marshaled, the soldiers will be constantly on

the qui vive; without waiting to be asked, they will do your will; without

restrictions, they will be faithful; without giving orders, they can be trusted.


26. Prohibit the taking of omens, and do away with superstitious doubts.

Then, until death itself comes, no calamity need be feared.

27. If our soldiers are not overburdened with money, it is not because they have

a distaste for riches; if their lives are not unduly long, it is not because

they are disinclined to longevity.


28. On the day they are ordered out to battle, your soldiers may weep, those

sitting up bedewing their garments, and those lying down letting the tears

run down their cheeks. But let them once be brought to bay, and they will

display the courage of a Chu or a Kuei.


29. The skillful tactician may be likened to the shuai-jan. Now the shuai-jan

is a snake that is found in the ChUng mountains. Strike at its head, and

you will be attacked by its tail; strike at its tail, and you will be attacked
by its head; strike at its middle, and you will be attacked by head and tail

both.


30. Asked if an army can be made to imitate the shuai-jan, I should answer,

Yes. For the men of Wu and the men of Yueh are enemies; yet if they are

crossing a river in the same boat and are caught by a storm, they will come

to each other’s assistance just as the left hand helps the right.


31. Hence it is not enough to put one’s trust in the tethering of horses, and

the burying of chariot wheels in the ground


32. The principle on which to manage an army is to set up one standard of

courage which all must reach.


33. How to make the best of both strong and weak–that is a question involving

the proper use of ground.


34. Thus the skillful general conducts his army just as though he were leading

a single man, willy-nilly, by the hand.


35. It is the business of a general to be quiet and thus ensure secrecy; upright

and just, and thus maintain order.


36. He must be able to mystify his officers and men by false reports and appearances,

and thus keep them in total ignorance.


37. By altering his arrangements and changing his plans, he keeps the enemy

without definite knowledge. By shifting his camp and taking circuitous

routes, he prevents the enemy from anticipating his purpose.


38. At the critical moment, the leader of an army acts like one who has climbed

up a height and then kicks away the ladder behind him. He carries

his men deep into hostile territory before he shows his hand.


39. He burns his boats and breaks his cooking-pots; like a shepherd driving

a flock of sheep, he drives his men this way and that, and nothing knows

whither he is going.


40. To muster his host and bring it into danger:–this may be termed the business

of the general.


41. The different measures suited to the nine varieties of ground; the expediency

of aggressive or defensive tactics; and the fundamental laws of

human nature: these are things that must most certainly be studied.


42. When invading hostile territory, the general principle is, that penetrating

deeply brings cohesion; penetrating but a short way means dispersion.


43. When you leave your own country behind, and take your army across

neighborhood territory, you find yourself on critical ground. When there
are means of communication on all four sides, the ground is one of intersecting
highways.

44. When you penetrate deeply into a country, it is serious ground. When you

penetrate but a little way, it is facile ground.


45. When you have the enemy’s strongholds on your rear, and narrow passes

in front, it is hemmed-in ground. When there is no place of refuge at all,

it is desperate ground.


46. Therefore, on dispersive ground, I would inspire my men with unity of

purpose. On facile ground, I would see that there is close connection

between all parts of my army.


47. On contentious ground, I would hurry up my rear.


48. On open ground, I would keep a vigilant eye on my defenses. On ground

of intersecting highways, I would consolidate my alliances.


49. On serious ground, I would try to ensure a continuous stream of supplies.

On difficult ground, I would keep pushing on along the road.


50. On hemmed-in ground, I would block any way of retreat. On desperate

ground, I would proclaim to my soldiers the hopelessness of saving their

lives.


51. For it is the soldier’s disposition to offer an obstinate resistance when surrounded,

to fight hard when he cannot help himself, and to obey promptly

when he has fallen into danger.


52. We cannot enter into alliance with neighboring princes until we are acquainted

with their designs. We are not fit to lead an army on the march
unless we are familiar with the face of the country–its mountains and forests,
its pitfalls and precipices, its marshes and swamps. We shall be
unable to turn natural advantages to account unless we make use of local
guides.

53. To be ignored of any one of the following four or five principles does not

befit a warlike prince.


54. When a warlike prince attacks a powerful state, his generalship shows

itself in preventing the concentration of the enemy’s forces. He overawes
his opponents, and their allies are prevented from joining against him.

55. Hence he does not strive to ally himself with all and sundry, nor does he

foster the power of other states. He carries out his own secret designs,

keeping his antagonists in awe. Thus he is able to capture their cities and

overthrow their kingdoms.


56. Bestow rewards without regard to rule, issue orders without regard to

previous arrangements; and you will be able to handle a whole army as

though you had to do with but a single man.


57. Confront your soldiers with the deed itself; never let them know your

design. When the outlook is bright, bring it before their eyes; but tell

them nothing when the situation is gloomy.


58. Place your army in deadly peril, and it will survive; plunge it into desperate

straits, and it will come off in safety.


59. For it is precisely when a force has fallen into harm’s way that is capable

of striking a blow for victory.


60. Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the

enemy’s purpose.


61. By persistently hanging on the enemy’s flank, we shall succeed in the long

run in killing the commander-in-chief.


62. This is called ability to accomplish a thing by sheer cunning.


63. On the day that you take up your command, block the frontier passes,

destroy the official tallies, and stop the passage of all emissaries.


64. Be stern in the council-chamber, so that you may control the situation.


65. If the enemy leaves a door open, you must rush in.


66. Forestall your opponent by seizing what he holds dear, and subtly contrive

to time his arrival on the ground.


67. Walk in the path defined by rule, and accommodate yourself to the enemy

until you can fight a decisive battle.


68. At first, then, exhibit the coyness of a maiden, until the enemy gives you

an opening; afterwards emulate the rapidity of a running hare, and it will

be too late for the enemy to oppose you.


I feel that some of these instructions are too technical, too mechanical. If this happens, do this, if that happens, do that.

Instead, I'd like to read this chapter just as advice on what Would work in a certain situation. That also means that some things Will Not Work in certain situations. Definitely know that there are some actions you can take in the markets at certain times that you should not during other times. Like I have read before, Price Action Patterns are constantly forming by the bar, one pattern might develop into a different pattern as the bars form. Know what actions to take then.


Still, I will take what I can get from these bamboo strips, these following lines from the chapter stand out to me:


28. On the day they are ordered out to battle, your soldiers may weep, those

sitting up bedewing their garments, and those lying down letting the tears

run down their cheeks. But let them once be brought to bay, and they will

display the courage of a Chu or a Kuei.
- Be prepared to win, be prepared to lose. Laugh, cry, get drunk, whatever, get it out of your system. When time comes for you to bite the bullet on a losing trade, or to muster up a further attack, you just have to do it. Anyone here recommend pre-trading routines? None of that lighting candles around the desktop stuff please


29. The skillful tactician may be likened to the shuai-jan. Now the shuai-jan

is a snake that is found in the ChUng mountains. Strike at its head, and

you will be attacked by its tail; strike at its tail, and you will be attacked
by its head; strike at its middle, and you will be attacked by head and tail

both.
- Need to get Samuel L. Jackson up in here to deal with these motherf*in snakes on a motherf*in mountain.
Of course, #29 also speaks a lot about the importance of knowing how to attack in different situations.
  • #49
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:29am Sep 18, 2013 6:29am
Okay guys, I can't wait to get to the next two chapters. I just read Attack by Fire and Espionage... Great great stuff. I'll try my best to comment on those chapters, and also have some fun. Looking forward to sharing with you all soon.
  • #50
  • Edited 3:09am Sep 19, 2013 2:44am | Edited 3:09am
So, how did everyone like that FOMC, no tapering event? Had all my positions closed already and still it caught me by surprise.. spent the entire last night drinking, got home at 2 am and heard NO TAPERING. I was like.. WHAAT.. real drunk-like. don't ask. drunk general arranging his troops, ordering them to take down a night club.

Sort of sad Art of War is coming to an end, means that I will have to read the other books that I had bought, now.

This is a short chapter...

Chapter 12: The Attack by Fire.


1. Sun Tzu said: There are five ways of attacking with fire. The first is to
burn soldiers in their camp; the second is to burn stores; the third is to
burn baggage trains; the fourth is to burn arsenals and magazines; the
fifth is to hurl dropping fire amongst the enemy.

- Same attack, different ways to use it. Versatile. Compare this to the previous
chap, chap. 11 #29, the shuai-jan snake which has different attacks: "Strike at its head, and you will be attacked by its tail;
strike at its tail, and you will be attacked by its head;
strike at its middle, and you will be attacked by head and tail both."


2. In order to carry out an attack, we must have means available. The material
for raising fire should always be kept in readiness.
-margin

3. There is a proper season for making attacks with fire, and special days for
starting a conflagration.

-bank holidays = no fire. fundamental news events = fire.


4. The proper season is when the weather is very dry; the special days are
those when the moon is in the constellations of the Sieve, the Wall, the
Wing or the Cross-bar; for these four are all days of rising wind.
-Zhang Yu: Because the fire will catch more easily.

Translator: This is one of those ( not altogether rare) occasions when the Chinese commentator seems to be stating the obvious.

uhh seriously, Translator? that's what you have to say about Zhang Yu's comment?

but seriously, that was in the book. The translator seems to have gotten really tired writing about AOW


5. In attacking with fire, one should be prepared to meet five possible developments:
(a) When fire breaks out inside to enemy’s camp, respond at once with
an attack from without.
(b) If there is an outbreak of fire, but the enemy’s soldiers remain quiet,
bide your time and do not attack.
(c) When the force of the flames has reached its height, follow it up with
an attack, if that is practicable; if not, stay where you are.
(d) If it is possible to make an assault with fire from without, do not
wait for it to break out within, but deliver your attack at a favorable
moment.
(e) When you start a fire, be to windward of it. Do not attack from the
leeward.
- I think this is saying, when doing things and using tactics, don't let those tactics backfire on you.


6. A wind that rises in the daytime lasts long, but a night breeze soon falls.
- Time. which session are you trading? Sydney/ Tokyo/ London/ or New York. all different times, different winds to start fires..


7. In every army, the five developments connected with fire must be known,
the movements of the stars calculated, and a watch kept for the proper
days.


8. Hence those who use fire as an aid to the attack show intelligence; those
who use water as an aid to the attack gain an accession of strength.


9. By means of water, an enemy may be intercepted, but not robbed of all his
belongings.


10. Unhappy is the fate of one who tries to win his battles and succeed in his
attacks without cultivating the spirit of enterprise; for the result is waste
of time and general stagnation.
- Book translation: To win victory, to complete an objective, but not to follow through, is a disastrous waste.
I had AOW with me yesterday when I went into my friend's bar, and so like I was telling my friends about how this would relate to real life scenarios,
I said this: It's like, when you get a girl's number and then get to first base, not following through would be a waste.


11. Hence the saying: The enlightened ruler lays his plans well ahead; the
good general cultivates his resources.


12. Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there
is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.


13. No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen;
no general should fight a battle simply out of pique.


14. If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you
are.


15. Anger may in time change to gladness; vexation may be succeeded by
content.
- Book translation: Anger can turn into pleasure; Spite can turn into joy.
Mindset!! Bite that bullet.

16. But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into
being; nor can the dead ever be brought back to life.
-Don't F up accounts. Accounts can be brought back, but your self-confidence might not. But, learn from mistakes, accounts will be blown before money will be made.


17. Hence the enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution.
This is the way to keep a country at peace and an army intact.

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival Everyone! 中秋節快樂!
  • #51
  • Last Post: Sep 19, 2013 4:51am Sep 19, 2013 4:51am
I might as well finish up this last chapter before I go BBQ. Mid-Autumn Festival tradition.. BBQ. I'm pretty hungry.


Chapter 13: Snowden.

Lol just kidding about Edward Snowden. Hah, and this isn't Joseph Heller's Catch-22 either, yeah that would be Chapter 41: Snowden

btw, one of my favorite books of all time.



Chapter 13: The Use of Spies.

- Okay, so this chapter is about Insider trading Yes, I'm easily amused by my commentary.
No, this chapter is connected to Chapter 4: Tactical Dispositions, in that the use of spies is primarily to find out the disposition of the enemy. Sun-Tzu goes through many chapters describing different aspects of waging war, but now, it seems like it all comes down to Spies? The only characters in AOW are primarily the General, the Commander, and now Spies. However, this does follow what he says about war being won not on the battlefield, but off the field in preparations made and in the skill of the General to utilize time, terrain, his troops, and the enemy's weaknesses.


1. Sun Tzu said: Raising a host of a hundred thousand men and marching
them great distances entails heavy loss on the people and a drain on the
resources of the State. The daily expenditure will amount to a thousand
ounces of silver. There will be commotion at home and abroad, and men
will drop down exhausted on the highways. As many as seven hundred
thousand families will be impeded in their labor.
- See Chapter 2: Waging of War

2. Hostile armies may face each other for years, striving for the victory which
is decided in a single day. This being so, to remain in ignorance of the
enemy’s condition simply because one grudges the outlay of a hundred
ounces of silver in honors and emoluments, is the height of inhumanity.
- would this be the basics of scouting?

3. One who acts thus is no leader of men, no present help to his sovereign,
no master of victory.
- don't be stingy? no, do is what is best overall. think long-term gains.


4. Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and
conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge.
-foreknowledge!


5. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot be obtained
inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation.
-superstition in the markets? good luck charms? burn it.


6. Knowledge of the enemy’s dispositions can only be obtained from other
men.
- insider trading? serious stuff


7. Hence the use of spies, of whom there are five classes:
(a) Local spies;
(b) inward spies;
(c) converted spies;
(d) doomed spies;
(e) surviving spies.


8. When these five kinds of spy are all at work, none can discover the secret
system. This is called "divine manipulation of the threads."It is the
sovereign’s most precious faculty.


9. Having local spies means employing the services of the inhabitants of a
district.
- tour guides


10. Having inward spies, making use of officials of the enemy.
- traitors

11. Having converted spies, getting hold of the enemy’s spies and using them
for our own purposes.
- double agents

12. Having doomed spies, doing certain things openly for purposes of deception,
and allowing our spies to know of them and report them to the
enemy.
- scapegoats (these spies are taught false information, then sent over to be captured by the enemy)


13. Surviving spies, finally, are those who bring back news from the enemy’s
camp.
- James Bond 007


14. Hence it is that which none in the whole army are more intimate relations
to be maintained than with spies. None should be more liberally rewarded.
In no other business should greater secrecy be preserved.
- spies are well paid, but then this means they can be bought out. use spies, those that you can really trust, patriots, family, those with stronger ties than just money.


15. Spies cannot be usefully employed without a certain intuitive sagacity.
- "In order to use them, one must know fact from falsehood and be able to discriminate between honesty and double-dealing"


16. They cannot be properly managed without benevolence and straightforwardness.


17. Without subtle ingenuity of mind, one cannot make certain of the truth of
their reports.
- trading the news? news is usually after the fact, markets have already moved.

18. Be subtle! be subtle! and use your spies for every kind of business.
- every kind of business?


19. If a secret piece of news is divulged by a spy before the time is ripe, he
must be put to death together with the man to whom the secret was told.
- leave no loose ends


20. Whether the object be to crush an army, to storm a city, or to assassinate
an individual, it is always necessary to begin by finding out the names of
the attendants, the aides-de-camp, and door-keepers and sentries of the
general in command. Our spies must be commissioned to ascertain these.
- know the enemy (through spies)


21. The enemy’s spies who have come to spy on us must be sought out, tempted
with bribes, led away and comfortably housed. Thus they will become
converted spies and available for our service.
- don't take them straight to the chopping block. this type of action is flexible. even though the spy is the worst kind of enemy, an enemy spy can still be useful


22. It is through the information brought by the converted spy that we are
able to acquire and employ local and inward spies.

23. It is owing to his information, again, that we can cause the doomed spy to
carry false tidings to the enemy.
- Snowden? (start conspiracy theory now)

24. Lastly, it is by his information that the surviving spy can be used on appointed
occasions.


25. The end and aim of spying in all its five varieties is knowledge of the
enemy; and this knowledge can only be derived, in the first instance, from
the converted spy. Hence it is essential that the converted spy be treated
with the utmost liberality.


26. Of old, the rise of the Yin dynasty was due to I Chih who had served
under the Hsia. Likewise, the rise of the Chou dynasty was due to Lu Ya
who had served under the Yin.
-and the rise of GBP due to James Bond


27. Hence it is only the enlightened ruler and the wise general who will use
the highest intelligence of the army for purposes of spying and thereby
they achieve great results. Spies are a most important element in water,
because on them depends an army’s ability to move.
- element in water?? element in Warfare I think is the right term.. book translation.

imagine the General who gets a copy of the AOW pdf and starts soaking his spies in water

I know my jokes aren't great, just trying to keep it light humored, the fact being that.. this is the conclusion of AOW.
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