{quote} Hi Axlz, are you able to use Alfonso's indicators on Forex Tester 2?
Unfortunately you cannot
. I drew them all manually.However, this can be seen as a good thing, as it forces you to practice drawing manual zones, which is great
.Regards.
Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
- #2,422
- Sep 13, 2013 6:22pm Sep 13, 2013 6:22pm
{quote} Hi Nvrgvup, Unfortunately you cannot
Thanks, I will give it a try!
- #2,423
- Edited 9:04pm Sep 13, 2013 8:21pm | Edited 9:04pm
Hi Alfonso,
I have been doing lots of testing on the forex tester 2, and I have something I'd like to share.
I don't think it is a good idea for us to start taking shorts/longs, if a TL is broken before we reach a higher TF supply/demand area. Usually, price will have a weak move in the opposite direction after TL break, but will then resume it's original trend, towards the higher TF supply/demand.
I think trading based on TL break, before we have touched a higher TF supply/demand area, is a low probability trade.
We should always wait for higher TF supply/demand to be reached before changing directions. TL is good for added confluence, but we should never use it on its own, or before a higher TF area has been hit.
At least, that's what I have been seeing.
I have been doing lots of testing on the forex tester 2, and I have something I'd like to share.
I don't think it is a good idea for us to start taking shorts/longs, if a TL is broken before we reach a higher TF supply/demand area. Usually, price will have a weak move in the opposite direction after TL break, but will then resume it's original trend, towards the higher TF supply/demand.
I think trading based on TL break, before we have touched a higher TF supply/demand area, is a low probability trade.
We should always wait for higher TF supply/demand to be reached before changing directions. TL is good for added confluence, but we should never use it on its own, or before a higher TF area has been hit.
At least, that's what I have been seeing.
{quote} Remember that going long or short when trendline is broken, only applies if price hit a higher time frame SD zone. This is a key principle in Alfonso's teachings. That's why the SD curve is so important. Remember that if we are trading h4/w1 combo, we still have a d1 curve in the middle. When we go short at a weekly supply zone, and trade at each h4 supply zone, we need to understand that at the moment price hit D1 demand, some H4 supply zones are likely to be absorbed, and then, at some point, trend will resume towards w1 demand, and as...
The thing is, I am testing H4/D1 combo. Of course I pay attention to where we are on the weekly and monthly TF, but I take profits for H4 at the next D1 demand/supply zone. That is why I was saying it is better to hold it, and not exit trade because TL is broken halfway between D1 zone or move your SL to BE. When using H4 for entries, price will usually always resume towards the opposite D1 zone, after retesting the last valid zone (hopefully the one you entered on).
I think this is where we can ascertain that unfresh zones have a use. If it was a valid zone that you entered on, and price stops halfway and starts reversing, if your zone was valid, it will usually hold. Not that you should trade the unfresh zones, but be aware of this as a sort of reassurance.
And I agree with what you said about stop taking longs/shorts when TL is broken. I forgot about that, so thanks for reminding me. That sounds logical. But I don't think moving SL/exiting trades is a good idea. Just let it run until you hit opposite D1 supply/demand.
And of course, as you said, do not take any new positions. Leave your current one open, but don't take any new ones.
Thanks again for your response. These discussions get the brain going.
- #2,428
- Sep 13, 2013 10:39pm Sep 13, 2013 10:39pm
{quote} Axlz Can you post your chart and explain how you make entry , Tp and SL? A picture can speak a thousand words
I am using Forex Tester 2, so the pictures may be slightly crude.
Here is an example of what I was explaining:
Daily:
I had marked out the Daily extremes. We are at Daily supply, and I want to go short, with the goal of taking profits at the Daily demand.
H4:
I forgot to include it in the picture, but your SL would be at the top of the green zone + 5 pips wiggle room. Entry would be at the proximal line, SL at distal ( + Wiggle room).
This is why, Unless there is news/it is almost weekend, we should not move our SL at all until TP is hit. Meaning, We should always be confident that price will not retrace fully back to our SL, until it reaches the opposite higher TF zone.
- #2,429
- Sep 14, 2013 1:52am Sep 14, 2013 1:52am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Yesterday's webinar has been uploaded to YouTube. It's not in my original account because due to the problems I've had, I am no longer allowed to upload videos longer than 15 minutes. I don't think I will ever do a 15 minutes webinar
I am sorry that some of you couldn't attend today's webinar, all emails were sent at the same time, it looks like either online mass mail application failed to deliver all of the emails, some got lost in the cyber space or it hit your spam folder. Please verify that.
Today we tried to cover the basics again but more in depth, using the trendlines to assess our trend, allowing as to confirm a zone or negate it. We also discussed various situations regarding the freshness of a level and how we could use them to trade with the trend.
Without further delay, the video is at the bottom!
Have a great weekend!
Alfonso
I am sorry that some of you couldn't attend today's webinar, all emails were sent at the same time, it looks like either online mass mail application failed to deliver all of the emails, some got lost in the cyber space or it hit your spam folder. Please verify that.
Today we tried to cover the basics again but more in depth, using the trendlines to assess our trend, allowing as to confirm a zone or negate it. We also discussed various situations regarding the freshness of a level and how we could use them to trade with the trend.
Without further delay, the video is at the bottom!
Have a great weekend!
Alfonso
Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #2,430
- Edited 2:16am Sep 14, 2013 2:01am | Edited 2:16am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #2,431
- Sep 14, 2013 2:08am Sep 14, 2013 2:08am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #2,433
- Sep 14, 2013 3:08am Sep 14, 2013 3:08am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Good morning Alfonso I was wondering if you any rules regarding SD zones that are created during Asian vs European/USA trading sessions for various pairs? For instance, if you had an H1 speedbump demand created on E/U during the middle of the Tokyo trading session, and it met all other rules, would you consider it valid? Great thread and very impressed with how much time you've invested in it. Hope you're still finding enough time for the beach! Huk
Thanks for your compliments. Doing my best to help others and myself in the process. Help is bi-directional, by posting my views and rules, I'm influencing on my own thining processes and emotions. It serves as an exercise of auto-control and ego punishment
I have no specific rules as per the SD levels created during the Tokyo markets, well there are some nuances. I mean, I will want such a level to have at least 3:1 RR. During the asian session new levels can be created but due to the lack of liquidity, many won't hold that well, I am aware of that so I prefer better levels. I will normally lean on good departure H4 levels. H1 can be tricky in the asian sessions, unless like I said it has a minimum 3:1 RR and has a nice departure.
If the currency pair traded is AUDJPY or a pair that contains 2 asian pairs, then those would be an exception since they are pairs heavily traded during the asian session. But it would be wise to have a minimum RR rule for those levels too during the asian market.
Hope that helps a bit.
P.S. There is always time for the beach, extreme sports and my passions, otherwise I wouldn't do this. But this is growing bigger and bigger and replying to all messages is taking me now 4-5 times the time I use for my analysis. I need to think how I am gonna manage that
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #2,435
- Edited 3:32am Sep 14, 2013 3:15am | Edited 3:32am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Just want to share some setups that I'm looking at for next week. Please feel free to comment or critique, thanks.
It looks like you know what you are doing, all I can say is congratulations my friend
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
{quote} Morning Huk! Thanks for your compliments. Doing my best to help others and myself in the process. Help is bi-directional, by posting my views and rules, I'm influencing on my own thining processes and emotions. It serves as an exercise of auto-control and ego punishment
Thanks Alfonso, that makes perfect sense. And thanks again for all the time spent on managing your thread. I doubt there are many better trading resources on the web (if there are then I haven't come across them). I think most people would understand if you scaled back your commitment here though. Perhaps, time for us to stand more on our own two feet and take responsibility for continuing our own education, leaving you with more free time? Anyway, I look forward to your posts no matter how frequent or infrequent.
All the best, Huk.
{quote}. Marko was just trying to help us with his comments and experiences. We have to be humble enough to reconognize that, you can't attack him or anybody for trying to help us. You may not like what he said or it can also be that you don't know that what he said can be of help to your trading, both things can happen!
My intention was not to polute chart or thread with indicators, merely to suggest my reserches over the years. I have been a member of FF for quite some time, and trading even longer. I don't post too much, unless i have to say something ; simply because i have no time. I will try to contribute as much as i can, and i am sure that i can learn a lot too.
Over the years, i have tried many aproach to the market, and investigated even more indicators and at the end i went up with SD strategy. Until upon recently, before u started the thread, i had to manualy drow all S/D levels on my Jforex platform( the skale fix on Jforex is long time incorporated and higly visible
, but i didnt know about Metatrader, simply because i had other uses..so thank you ). Now i use template that u provided, and my job is easier now.The reason i mentioned ATR, is simply because i like to look at the Average true range for a specific period of time. When that range is broken , it can signal that something has happened. I do agree that more you add, more indesition u bring in, but a quick overview is handy. ATR is being used even before the era of Richard Dennis, but i never saw anyone on FF that it uses in a similar fashion. Whether is a help or distract, people should judge themselfs
What i also like about ATR, is that it doesn't allow subjectivity to interfere,whilst fibonaci and even trendline can be very subjective. ATR is simply a math formula and nothing more.Do u need ATR ? Of coure not ! But someone may find it handy.Similar thing about spread indi. I do remember one of your trade ( back then) , when u have missed CAD/JPY although your limit order was penatrated by 5 pips. This is the spread widening, and it's just an confirmation that u have successfully picked the right level. If nothing , novice traders can use this indi in order to track how they improve in picking levels ( even though they might miss some but they might have satisfaction in knowing that they chosed wisely ). Do u need spread indi ? NO, of course ..but it can be handy.
Doing my reserches i also find out, that on the way back price almost always makes divergence. When that divergence will end ? Hopefully at your right S/D level. This information can be useffull, when u r not confident in your level, and can not put limit order /set and forget.The rest is up to u, how u will manage that trade. However, divergence is tricky and price can continue regardless of divergence, until it reaches new levels. So be carefull. Of course, u dont need that as well..but it might help u.
Regarding trade management , u may want to use hedging order insead of fixed stops. This way u can add more conform to your proximal or distal line. This is handy, if u are not certain that the level will work ...or the level is not the best looking, while the better one is sitting below or above ( depending are u on the short side or long). This way, if the level is broken and the next level is fine u only need a retrasement from that level that u can cover your losses, thus the bad trade is nullified and its like it never happened ( more agrressive traders may even profit from bad trades) . However, dont be fooled hedging is a dangerous thing, and requires proper handling and experience. Also, u have to track those trades with Exel, in order to know exactly how much u have to earn in order to regain losses. The other danger is that if your level is broken it might signal that u r on the wrong side , so be very carefull. Other uses of hedging can be implemented on your profit. For instance , during the news releases , overnight trading ..etc.
Regarding trendlines, fibonaci, EMA ... Sometime when our S/D level is in line with trendline, we gain another confidence that the level might work better . Ussually there u can find fibonaci levels, different EMA combo ( 20,50,200) etc. On the other hand, when a trendline is broken, or fibonaci or EMA ... ussually right beneth or above is sitting our S/D level. Now, when i logically think, when this happens, i assume that there is not enough liqudity and they need to trap those trendline , fibonaci ,EMA traders in order to bring in liquidity and fill the orders which are tthe opposite of their direction. Now, i wonder ..which S/D is more stronger ? The ones who are in line with the others, and defend that level together ? or the ones that they go against everyone ? I dont know, and i might be wrong.
Anyway, i hope this will help. I dont write much on FF, i simply have no time. I will respect our agreement and not polute charts with indi's , and it was never my intention to do so.
Regards,
Marko
- #2,440
- Edited 8:24am Sep 14, 2013 6:34am | Edited 8:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community