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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #7,741
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:31am Sep 12, 2013 4:31am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Venzen you know i respect your EW counts... my knowledge on this subject is not deep enough to comment on motive waves/structure, but I have a pedestrian understanding of what they are heres something that may back up your view: {image}
It also looks like the outline of a monkey puzzle tree leaf
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,742
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:33am Sep 12, 2013 4:33am
I am off for my daily romp in the great outdoors. As usual, I'll be back for NY session
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,743
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:34am Sep 12, 2013 4:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep US Jobless claims at 8:30 NY time
and for any Europhiles, at 1:40 pm European Time ECB President Draghi Speaks
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,744
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:35am Sep 12, 2013 4:35am
Quoting venzen
{quote} DHT, thanks for that chart. I deleted my previous post because there was a shameful error on there! I had incorrectly labeled the Fib levels. One can go to non-Fib hell for such a misdemeanor! updating and reposting soon.
inconceivable!!

no worries, i had a couple of doh! moments yesterday too
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,745
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:37am Sep 12, 2013 4:37am
Quoting Islander
{quote} and for any Europhiles, at 1:40 pm European Time ECB President Draghi Speaks

speaking of Europhiles; anyone got a view on the recent spat b/w Burlusconi and his coalition party?

Im interested cuz Italy is the biggest "at risk" economy in Europe...

would specially love to hear from any Italian (stallions) on the thread!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,746
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:50am Sep 12, 2013 4:50am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} speaking of Europhiles; anyone got a view on the recent spat b/w Burlusconi and his coalition party? Im interested cuz Italy is the biggest "at risk" economy in Europe... would specially love to hear from any Italian (stallions) on the thread!

no stallion here, only an old horny man that makes his women "come" with only a whispering. How come? well, that is another story for another place.

Italy will come in the next post..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,747
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:53am Sep 12, 2013 4:53am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} GBPAUD. Only one of the pending orders got filled before GBP strengthened so cancelled the last one. Moving the open orders to BE+1 now. They were up +100p post the jobs news but the fade here is incredible (& a little scary); huge supply around MS1.
Stop moved to 1.706, TP is 7190 or breach of tl: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post6959464.
  • #7,748
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:53am Sep 12, 2013 4:53am
Quoting milam
{quote} no stallion here, only an old horny man that makes his women "come" with only a whispering. How come? well, that is another story for another place. Italy will come in the next post..
this is why I wanna know, the tug of war in Italian politics is not gonna help this situation
(via bloomberg)
"Italy sold three-year notes at the highest yield since October 2012.
The Rome-based Treasury auctioned 4 billion euros of securities maturing in November 2016 to yield 2.72 percent, up from 2.33 percent at an auction of similar-maturity debt on July 11. It also sold bonds due in 2028 and floating-rate notes."
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,749
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:57am Sep 12, 2013 4:57am
Quoting milam
{quote} no stallion here, only an old horny man that makes his women "come" with only a whispering. How come? well, that is another story for another place. Italy will come in the next post..
gotta say, you have some stiff competition with the Daddy-O of all time

this man can serenade the undies off 'em

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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,750
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:57am Sep 12, 2013 4:57am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Venzen you know i respect your EW counts... my knowledge on this subject is not deep enough to comment on motive waves/structure, but I have a pedestrian understanding of what they are heres something that may back up your view: {image}

Quoting theDHT
Gold Juicy! H4 {image}
hi DHT, Marcus and the Club,

The Gold chart is amazing. I've not seen this degree of internal Fib ratio consistency in a long time. This leads me to conclude that this is not a correction but a motive wave to the upside. It is not an impulse but an expanding diagonal. Diagonals are just all over the market these days: Gold, Euro, USD, JPY, Zimbabwe Dollar, it's pervasive and the reason I believe EWI are getting the Grand Supercycle counts invalidated every few months: they're counting WXYXZ and keep downgrading degree to try and fit the "corrections" into that format. But start counting in 3's and assume diagonal 3-3-3-3-3 suddenly there is much clarity as when you're looking for something in the dark - don't find it - eventually switch on the light and it's right there in plain sight!

(I'm not saying EWI are foolish - respect to Prechter, but how else do you explain them being wrong on their major counts for over 2 years already?)

So, the deal with diagonals at large degree is you don't get to see impulse waves. What might appear to be an impulse is actually ABC - usually a "flat" - with a massive C wave putting in most the distance of a move. The C wave is of course an impulse or diagonal 12345 but other than the occasional C wave "needle" the rest are all three wave monkey puzzles across all degrees.


http://ubuntuone.com/3OniBBdNgJewXywVnsxlNZ
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,751
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:01am Sep 12, 2013 5:01am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} speaking of Europhiles; anyone got a view on the recent spat b/w Burlusconi and his coalition party? Im interested cuz Italy is the biggest "at risk" economy in Europe... would specially love to hear from any Italian (stallions) on the thread!

Don't count too much on Berlusconi. He is well roasted and Country can't afford new elections! He will slide down slooowly!
Per aspera ad astra
  • #7,752
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:10am Sep 12, 2013 5:10am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} inconceivable!! no worries, i had a couple of doh! moments yesterday too

EJ hitting it's critical junctures, DHT... either some drawn out BoJ bouncing here or the wheels come off of this overbought blooming pair
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,753
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:12am Sep 12, 2013 5:12am
Quoting venzen
{quote} EJ hitting it's critical junctures, DHT... either some drawn out BoJ bouncing here or the wheels come off of this overbought blooming pair

H4 still showing potential bullish movement
but
Daily starting to show exhaustion
and lets not forget the Sequential sell trigger on weekly AND monthly that I posted on EYI not long ago...

who wins?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post6959528
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,754
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:14am Sep 12, 2013 5:14am
Re: Italy

Bond markets have Italy at the same risk as Spain now. Spains economy will take years to come back around so to me for the bond markets to see EZs 3rd largest economy as as-risky or even riskier than Spain tells me a lot. And still they play politics when they have serious issues to deal with. Monte Paschi is practically nationalised & imo that's just the start. If Greece, Ireland, Cyprus & Spain are anything to go by; there's never just one. I reckon the bond markets fear that Italy just doesn't have the wherewith-all to deal with the pressing issues (i.e. why the hell are we still hearing about Berlusconi/ parlimentary fighting when finances need fixing!). I expect yields to continue to rise for the rest of the year. Or maybe Italy'll just do some more derivatives trades with JPM & pretend everything is hunky-dory! Anyway, long term bearish Euro.
  • #7,755
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:19am Sep 12, 2013 5:19am
Quoting Sober_Colm
Re: Italy Bond markets have Italy at the same risk as Spain now. Spains economy will take years to come back around so to me for the bond markets to see EZs 3rd largest economy as as-risky or even riskier than Spain tells me a lot. And still they play politics when they have serious issues to deal with. Monte Paschi is practically nationalised & imo that's just the start. If Greece, Ireland, Cyprus & Spain are anything to go by; there's never just one. I reckon the bond markets fear that Italy just doesn't have the wherewith-all to deal with the...
one very interesting point to note is that ECB (especially under Draghi) has been mopping up liquidity faster than any other developed central bank in the world

this is a large reason why the Euro is as strong as its been, pure supply/demand mechanics...

in a sense, its rigging the system, which is why Cyprus did not have as much of an impact on the currency as Greece did a couple of years ago, even tho the situation was much worse (look at Banking sector debt to gdp comparisons bw just these two)

they can kick the can down the road, but as Druckenmiller said, one day the can will kick back, and it'll be straight in the nuts!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,756
  • Edited 5:52am Sep 12, 2013 5:25am | Edited 5:52am
Quoting milam
{quote} no stallion here, only an old horny man that makes his women "come" with only a whispering. How come? well, that is another story for another place. Italy will come in the next post..
I am not following politics in Italy, it is such a big business, many parasites that I are only interested generating smoke for their own interests.

What you foreigners know is only one side of the story, because the international media have their own interest to propagate when it coincides with the interest of the relative country or government. Here I am talking about powerful media like the Guardian, the Independent and the Times.

The situation in Italy is complex, it is not a classic country where institutions are considered and respected. Institution are the enemy and they have been since 1860 when Italy was unified under the head of the Savoia backed by the British media and government because they had interest in the sulfur mines in Sicily with was part of the Regno delle due Sicilie. Sulfur at the time was needed for war issues.

At the time the powerful British media were painting I Borboni as delinquents, exactly as they are doing it know with Berlusconi, Siria, Iran and so on and on.

Since the "unification" if you like to call it that way, massive immigration developed, you can find Italians everywhere nowadays even in Papua new Guinea. Why? Because it was impossible to live in a occupied country.

The realty is that Italy does not exist as a country but only on paper.

Despite that, Italy is the most beautiful place to live in, after I sold my publishing business in here, I took my wife and three children to live there for nearly three years, they had the time of their life, specially on the interpersonal relationship. When we came back here which is one of the best country in the world, we took quite a while to adjust, because compered, here is f@cking boring.

I am not saying Berlusconi is a saint, but what I know is that the others are not angels.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,757
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:31am Sep 12, 2013 5:31am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} gotta say, you have some stiff competition with the Daddy-O of all time this man can serenade the undies off 'em {image}

LOL

Oh yes a story very much told...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,758
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:33am Sep 12, 2013 5:33am


http://gallery.mailchimp.com/a787fd5...ail_header.jpg
The Limits of Bluffing
September 11, 2013 | 0738 GMT
http://www.stratfor.com/sites/defaul...?itok=TMovO4fI

U.S. President Barack Obama's address to the nation Tuesday evening hit all the expected points.
The president tried to articulate how an unanswered chemical weapons attack would impact U.S. national security, and he shed a bit more light on the intelligence that the United States has collected to link the regime to the attack. He also tried to define a limited U.S. strike as strong enough to hurt the regime, but not so damaging that the United States would be left to clean up the aftermath. To tie it off, the president made a moral argument rooted in American exceptionalism to rally a skeptical Congress. In spite of these efforts, the U.S. administration remains trapped in the same growing web of bluffs it was in before Obama delivered this message.
These bluffs have marked the turning points of the Syria crisis thus far. Bluffing is an age-old tactic in diplomacy. When faced with limited options, it can be a very powerful tool, if employed properly. As Machiavelli advised five centuries ago, "It is very wise to simulate madness at the right time." Indeed, a bluff timed with precision at a high pressure point that achieves the desired result without firing a single shot can transform a mediocre name in political history into a legacy overnight. That said, it would be difficult to impress Machiavelli with the bluffs used so far in the context of the Syria crisis.
Obama made the first bluff last August during the final campaign stretch for his re-election. Speculation had re-emerged over a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, and Israel was trying to pressure Obama to draw a red line on Syria's alleged small-scale use of chemical weapons in July 2012 and Iran's continued pursuit of nuclear weapons. At the time, Obama could have reasonably concluded that there was a low probability of an embattled Syrian regime risking foreign intervention by carrying out a large-scale chemical weapons attack when it could still rely on its conventional forces to battle the rebels. But just one year later, the regime appears to have called Obama’s bluff and deployed chemical weapons in sizable amounts.
With the credibility of U.S. ultimatums at stake, not just for Syria, but for any power willing to challenge Washington, Obama needed to cobble together a coalition in haste, but he found out that even his impassioned allies, in Europe as well as in Congress, were losing their enthusiasm for military intervention.
Then came Russia's grand bluff. Russian President Vladimir Putin saw an opportunity to assert Russia as a great power with the influence to make the United States bend and its allies quiver. Moscow's bluff came in the form of a well-timed proposal to secure, seize and destroy Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles. To the relief of many, the move actually seemed to extinguish the military threat to Syria. In reality, Russia's proposal was a non-starter. Sending hundreds of U.N. inspectors and technicians to secure 1,000 metric tons of chemical weapons stockpiles spread across at least 50 sites in a country embroiled in a brutal civil war is a long, arduous and highly complicated process – a mission that would require ground troops at a time when no country, not even Russia, appears prepared to take that risk. Still, the proposal sounded good enough for the White House and its European allies to apply the brakes to the military option and shift to the diplomatic route.
Now it is time for the United States to call the Russian bluff on the proposal. When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry goes to Geneva on Thursday to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, he will press him on the details of the proposal in an attempt to poke holes in the plan with the world watching. Russia will try to show that an ambitious diplomatic endeavor of this nature cannot be rushed, and certainly cannot be sabotaged with American threats of military action or threats from France to send Bashar al Assad to the Hague. The United States can put off a U.N. Security Council meeting to avoid negotiating with Russia over a watered down resolution, but it cannot meet a Russian demand to take the military option off the table. If Obama wants to preserve any credibility in this crisis, he must maintain a credible military threat if and when the diplomatic proposal flops.
Russia can always distance itself from fault if U.N. members refuse to commit ground troops to the operation or if the United States tries to cast the Russian proposal as a delay tactic unworthy of further consideration. Obama, however, will be left with the inevitable choice of backing out of a military campaign or proceeding with a limited strike based on a stale premise and possibly without the full endorsement of Congress. At some point, the bluffing game will run its course. The final move in this game will go to Obama, and no matter what moves have been made in the meantime, he'll still probably be looking at a weak hand.
  • #7,759
  • Sep 12, 2013 6:15am Sep 12, 2013 6:15am
Quoting milam
I cannot think where I can place my money at risk today, maybe eg short..... The price action is a bit over the place, is the market waiting for something to come out?
Well I did take the short here despite my reluctance, because I was shorting right into my support.

But I also know that support/ resistance do not act as much all the time. Prices reacted not only once but twice and I go out with +2.

I am probably wrong but that does not matter.

Done for the day. I wish you green pips and most of all peace of mind because without that all the green pips will be just red.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-h4-pepperstone-financial-pty.png Size: 29 KB
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,760
  • Sep 12, 2013 6:16am Sep 12, 2013 6:16am
Quoting milam
{quote} LOL Oh yes a story very much told...

Lol milam, I just realize I live 250 mt. away from you! u are right here is a big mess, but I like it.
Per aspera ad astra
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