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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,841
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:12am Sep 12, 2013 4:12am
Quoting 4tiger
Hi fti, I am currently working on finishing AOW, still working on mindset. I still need more time to become a more mature trader. I am wondering if it would be okay for me to post my thoughts (on this thread or somewhere else) on how I see your lessons (the lessons after mindset), come together and work as a whole? I've been wanting to start demoing using your method, and I have already seen your advice on how to go about a demo, but I'm still worried that I won't be sure if I am doing it right without more feedback. Wish you well.

1. one can never finish learning AOW or 3 kingdoms.
2. there is no right way or wrong way, only profitable way.
3. if you want , you have desire. if you no do anything you had desire.

stop worrying.

regards
  • #42,842
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:22am Sep 12, 2013 4:22am
??????

https://www.facebook.com/earthweareo...ocation=stream
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  • #42,843
  • Sep 12, 2013 5:33am Sep 12, 2013 5:33am
Hi,FDI i started reading your thread carefuly, i dont speak english , so it seems little difficult to undersatand every thing as it is ,but i am trying hard and reading every word carefully ,to understand well ,so far so good very good thread ,puts market in it place ,as a battelefield we all are souljers with different grades to one other ,but all our gole is to win the battle day in day outwith minimal loss ,you being the general i thing i will be able to fight better now .thank you if anything wrong with wordings pls apoligise
  • #42,844
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:46am Sep 12, 2013 7:46am
seems market want to fly.
FTI, r u there?
Enter Signature
  • #42,845
  • Edited 8:54am Sep 12, 2013 8:13am | Edited 8:54am
Quoting CHFJunkie
seems market want to fly. FTI, r u there?
so sorry.
my energy no good.
dozzed.

regards

a lot of things are in limbo at the moment.is very difficult see things.
only thing i realise is that the mof of japan taking steps to increase consumption tax.
must be they feeling the economic slow down internationally, and taking steps for households not over spent.

mostly i not hear others taking any measures to that effect.

The world's biggest producer country , panda , has taken steps to slow her double digit growth.
but we not know of her policies in household spending yet. Traditionally, peeps not spend what they no have. And is not easy borrow from others.
lest face shame of unable to return.

Under this kind of economic imbalancing, would be prudence for countries maintain as balance their trades as possible.
Is not clever depend on too much(prolonged)surpluses neither go too much deficits, lest ends up in unrest.

As for the markets we trading. seems there may be some structural cogs have broken down.
because vibrance and smooth flows of market seems to be things of the past.
i trying determine if market making , the core of the system is still functional.
i feel maybe there is structural meltdown already.

what i can understand is for now, trading should take cautious stance, until the fomc event is passed.
and we will need look at the markets from there on.
  • #42,846
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:18am Sep 12, 2013 8:18am
Quoting rajini
Hi,FDI i started reading your thread carefuly, i dont speak english , so it seems little difficult to undersatand every thing as it is ,but i am trying hard and reading every word carefully ,to understand well ,so far so good very good thread ,puts market in it place ,as a battelefield we all are souljers with different grades to one other ,but all our gole is to win the battle day in day outwith minimal loss ,you being the general i thing i will be able to fight better now .thank you if anything wrong with wordings pls apoligise
hello rajini,
welcome to the thread.
is so much more difficult for someone who not speaks english read a english thread.
i wish for you make your grades.
it is so admirable for you do this, that some who can read english well, they seem cannot understands much.


welcome.

regards
  • #42,847
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:34am Sep 12, 2013 8:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} hello rajini, welcome to the thread. is so much more difficult for someone who not speaks english read a english thread. i wish for you make your grades. it is so admirable for you do this, that some who can read english well, they seem cannot understands much. welcome. regards
hi fti kind words,urges me to read more and more, soon i will improve my english.
  • #42,848
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:56am Sep 12, 2013 8:56am
FTI, I have a question about MM , it's about attacking.
I need your comments about the sequence I use.

I start attacking with 50% of my position size, for example my full position size is 4 lots.
so I start with 2 lots and add another 1 lot wen opportunity rises according to the dance
then I add another 1 lot to make a total of 4 lots.
I read in a previous post that you advise adding slowely so that a position doesnt turn bad.

Did I get it right??
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  • #42,849
  • Edited 9:24am Sep 12, 2013 8:59am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting CHFJunkie
FTI, I have a question about MM , it's about attacking. I need your comments about the sequence I use. I start attacking with 50% of my position size, for example my full position size is 4 lots. so I start with 2 lots and add another 1 lot wen opportunity rises according to the dance then I add another 1 lot to make a total of 4 lots. I read in a previous post that you advise adding slowely so that a position doesnt turn bad. Did I get it right??
it depends on market behaviour that one perceives from the behaviour of one's portfolio.
generally in dynamic and liquid market place, that is best practises.
this because if a trend is developing in markets, there normally multiple waves of directional push.
also multiple minor wave pushes in tendem with the major push.
so if builtup of positions over time is in profit stance, would indicate that one is on the ride, correctly.

generally is also the way fund managers manage portfolios.
they would slowly stir funds from their money portfolio into their risk portfolio as they perceive the growth in equities.
in contracting markets(down trending markets) they would shift back to money portfolios to protect pricipals and lean to yield gains than risk gains.

In forex is a little different , as there is no such growth and contraction portfolios.
all is risk portfolio. so the shift is normally in relates to performing and non performing currencies.
so to get on the correct ride, the shift should be gradual depending on the volatility of the market to the portfolio's domicile currency.

This the MO of peeps who pros in forex. Because they always in the markets. Even when they squared they still have non performing risk(opportunity cost).
unlike tiger traders, they come for 1 shot games and disappears to other arenas after the 1 shot.


regards
  • #42,850
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:16am Sep 12, 2013 9:16am
gold searching for support
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #42,851
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:30am Sep 12, 2013 9:30am
I can not deny it since I started playing this way , it started feeling much more comfortable than the way I used to trade ( full position size at once ).

Now about the rescue , Let's say I entered 2 lots as scouts, then market moved against me , I then switch to 1 hour or 30 min to check trend,
if I'm wrong , then I bite the bullet and apply damage control , exit full position.
If Im right on trend , I can apply rescue using using 4 lots to get scouts back to baseline according t market form.
As a general I shoul not overstay a position when I'm in rescue mode ( this tip has saved me twice ).
Enter Signature
  • #42,852
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:32am Sep 12, 2013 9:32am
Quoting CHFJunkie
I can not deny it since I started playing this way , it started feeling much more comfortable than the way I used to trade ( full position size at once ). Now about the rescue , Let's say I entered 2 lots as scouts, then market moved against me , I then switch to 1 hour or 30 min to check trend, if I'm wrong , then I bite the bullet and apply damage control , exit full position. If Im right on trend , I can apply rescue using using 4 lots to get scouts back to baseline according t market form. As a general I shoul not overstay a position when I'm...


regards
  • #42,853
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:52am Sep 12, 2013 9:52am
Quoting fti
{quote} regards
Thanks
what about the sequence of rescue?
Enter Signature
  • #42,854
  • Edited 10:54am Sep 12, 2013 10:28am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting CHFJunkie
{quote} Thanks what about the sequence of rescue?
like i said there's no right or wrong.
you probably leveraged,
but, thats not wrong, as long as you can manage the risk in according to your ability accept it.
so you have no absolute safety options. And you must live with that as fact.

In term of your skews, you have basic skewing, and as your experience and portfolio grows, you will formulate more dynamic ways skew capabilities.
is a journey, so no rush, one step at a time and surely you shall find the way.
A young/undercapitalised and inexperience traveller will take more risk, and as you mature you will become more and more risk prudent.
what's most important is performance consistency in all terrains.
there will be certain terrains where you may experience setbacks, try make sure you have survival exits when encounter such difficulties.

regards

I can share with you some of my experiences.
"When a king has no kingdom, he takes high high risk get a foundation for a kingdom. When one has created a kingdom, then main piority is to sustain viability and functioning of the foundations to that kingdom."
These the different phases in managing risk. So risk aptitude is dependant on which phase one is at.
in fact there no absolutes in that managing.
which is reason why i always ask God audit my risk endevours.
some of my biggest losses were endevours that seemed to me most riskless.

one way i manage risk is that i separate the gains from the principal.
then the foreign cap becomes base for front line risktaking.
when i manage such multilevel risk portfolios, i make sure base never aligns to risk frontlines takes.
  • #42,855
  • Sep 12, 2013 6:31pm Sep 12, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting fti
https://www.facebook.com/earthweareo...ocation=stream
woke up early this morning and read some good messages.

thanks for sharing this, fti!
  • #42,856
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:44am Sep 13, 2013 3:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} like i said there's no right or wrong. you probably leveraged, but, thats not wrong, as long as you can manage the risk in according to your ability accept it. so you have no absolute safety options. And you must live with that as fact. In term of your skews, you have basic skewing, and as your experience and portfolio grows, you will formulate more dynamic ways skew capabilities. is a journey, so no rush, one step at a time and surely you shall find the way. A young/undercapitalised and inexperience traveller will take more risk, and...
Thanks for the reply
Enter Signature
  • #42,857
  • Edited 5:07am Sep 13, 2013 4:45am | Edited 5:07am
cable lost it market makers?
now trading so wide that elephants can walk thru it.
they wanted quote it in piptits?
how come the spread not in piptits?

oh by the way , someone pointed me to 1 thread.
you had been adviced.
be smart with your money.
Trust noone, least of all you gullible greed.
remember, anything too good to be true, is just that.
Try trust God and your true selfs.
pray keep evil temptations from your door.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=325669

regards



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  • #42,858
  • Edited 5:35am Sep 13, 2013 5:20am | Edited 5:35am
http://ca.reuters.com/article/busine...98C08X20130913

everyone now is waiting for lines cross.

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  • #42,859
  • Sep 13, 2013 9:16am Sep 13, 2013 9:16am
Dear fti,
May i ask a question please.
What do we do when the 3 kingdoms are not in sync ?
like now, eruo's heading south, cable's heading north, usdjpy is heading south and usdchf is heading north.
Stay out of the market ?
or trade still but duck quickly for quick profits ?
Cheers !

its always a fear on when the daily trend will kick in
  • #42,860
  • Edited 10:06am Sep 13, 2013 9:50am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting appleboy
Dear fti, May i ask a question please. What do we do when the 3 kingdoms are not in sync ? like now, eruo's heading south, cable's heading north, usdjpy is heading south and usdchf is heading north. Stay out of the market ? or trade still but duck quickly for quick profits ? Cheers ! its always a fear on when the daily trend will kick in
these unreasonable questions.
you asking me what should you do.
It depends on your skills sets.
you already answered your own questions.

When markets are chaos, then is because have manipulation.
so you need formulate strategy not fall into snares.

Normally when in such situations, my involvement in markets are small.
until the air clears, ante big into markets is ego.
No one knows for sure, thats why you say have fear.
No one ever knows for sure when the trend returns.
Now they the authorities already showed us what they going to do.
all we can do is wait and position well when it happens you there ride it.

If you feel unsure then be squared.
If you can feel flow then flow.
if you want position for advantage, then must be reasonable in sizes that you can manage.
even when there is no trend one should have same mindset.

Only thing cannot do now yet, is attack strategies, because market is trying find equilibrium.
They want manipulate price is their nemisis.
For you you just need manage book in best state and health until you can see way implement attack.(if opportunity arises)
until then you dance best you can, keeping head down incase of stray bullets.

regards

For now all event possibilities points will have usd volatility.
in fact usd downside begining to look less and less.
every event you look at is a usd strength scenario.
even the change in chair of fed. is a usd strength event.
so please not ask me when, i no have crystal balls.
only ability manage book meet the challanges.

you really believe banks can function in negative interest rates environment?
Tell me, what would you do if you had to pay interest keep money in banks?
what would everyone do?
without public funds, where the bank going get money sustain lendings?
get from CBs? for how long that can sustain?

I not even want talk about bank deposits multiplier effects.
if thats the way they want manage, is on their heads .
we just traders, trades whatever opportunities they want create.
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