Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 113 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,241
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:42am Sep 11, 2013 6:42am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Thanks for clarifying your trade management rules! And you my friend have great psychology... Your AUDNZD trade on the H1 account was probably up like 5R or so, I personally would have felt awful if it got stopped out at break even, but yes the way you're managing it does make logical sense. *Bows in admiration* And wise words at the end, will bear them in mind!
Yes, I had almost 5R on that trade, but you know, RULES ARE RULES. I just don't care if I have to give those pips back to the market, because many times I won't and I will have a big runner that will make me really happy. I just new a few runners a month on clear setups to have a nice RR ratio!

See the attached H1 chart, Still holding that H1 long on AUDNZD, moved my SL underneath previous valid demand. Whatever happens happens! But my target was higher, I need to respect my plan!
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 95 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,242
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:49am Sep 11, 2013 6:49am
Hi again Alfonso!

Could you please list the pairs you would consider as "majors" to your definition?
Normally, I would only consider the following 4 pairs as majors: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF.
But in one of your webinars you mentioned some more pairs, also the "Kiwi" pairs like NZDUSD I think.

Thanks again.
Oliver
  • #2,243
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:57am Sep 11, 2013 6:57am
Hi Alfonso,

I would say there is another demand level above, do you agree?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 88 KB
  • #2,244
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:01am Sep 11, 2013 7:01am
Quoting Olarion1975
Hi again Alfonso! Could you please list the pairs you would consider as "majors" to your definition? Normally, I would only consider the following 4 pairs as majors: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF. But in one of your webinars you mentioned some more pairs, also the "Kiwi" pairs like NZDUSD I think. Thanks again. Oliver
For me the majors are the major economies and currencies, that's my "personal" definition...

So the majors are:

  1. EURUSD
  2. USDCHF
  3. GBPUSD
  4. USDJPY
  5. USDCAD
  6. AUDUSD
  7. NZDUSD

Whatever the AUDUSD is doing will most likely affect its cross pairs like the audchf, audcad, gbpaud, etc.

The rest are crosspairs like EURAUD, GBPCAD, EURNZD, etc... Then there are the exotics like USDTRY, USDZAR, etc...
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,245
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:14am Sep 11, 2013 7:14am
Hi Alfonso ,

I cant seem to get the % indicator to display correctly as below ..any advice ?

Thanks

FT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Alfonso_Prcntg_crv.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #2,246
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:27am Sep 11, 2013 7:27am
Quoting Reacto
Hi Alfonso, I would say there is another demand level above, do you agree? {image}
I have my SL lower to protect my trade because it's a fresh one. According to the rules, we do have an ascending H1 trendline that has been broken solidly, so we can't buy on any of the levels because they are eithe non-fresh or they are against the TL. We can't do anything really. The entry was the one that I took on H1 and H4. Nothing available close to current price.

Off to lunch and the beach! Finnished my H4 analysis a few hours ago but I had to work on my project, now I'm done. Will reply to any messages later if I am available! I normally trade only the London session.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,247
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:07am Sep 11, 2013 8:07am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} For me the majors are the major economies and currencies, that's my "personal" definition... So the majors are: EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD USDJPY USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSDWhatever the AUDUSD is doing will most likely affect its cross pairs like the audchf, audcad, gbpaud, etc. The rest are crosspairs like EURAUD, GBPCAD, EURNZD, etc... Then there are the exotics like USDTRY, USDZAR, etc... Alfonso
hi alphonso,
in your assesment you check htf s/d levels and where the price is on the curve.You also mention the use of USD index to see where the pair is heading hence increasing the odds. I have attached the index chart which shows supply in control on daily & 4h which means that we only need to consider demand in the base currency. Would you take this view
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdollardaily.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdollarh4.png Size: 30 KB
  • #2,248
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:21am Sep 11, 2013 8:21am
USDJPY h1 frehh level short, taken previous demand with nonfresh daily area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: metatrader - pepperstone.png Size: 165 KB
  • #2,249
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:24am Sep 11, 2013 8:24am
Alfonso, can you share your analysis on silver?
  • #2,250
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:34am Sep 11, 2013 8:34am
Quoting bobyv87
USDJPY h1 frehh level short, taken previous demand with nonfresh daily area. {image}
You're right next to a newly formed D1 demand area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj dd.png Size: 53 KB
  • #2,251
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:44am Sep 11, 2013 8:44am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} You're right next to a newly formed D1 demand area. {image}

Your demand area not absorbed any supply so for me is not valid.
  • #2,252
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:46am Sep 11, 2013 8:46am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Your demand area not absorbed any supply so for me is not valid.
It absorbed this supply.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: supplyab.png Size: 55 KB
  • #2,253
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:36am Sep 11, 2013 9:36am
Alfonso,

I wanted to pose a question to you and anyone else who wants to chime in. Let's say I have decided to trade Daily curve and hourly entries keeping in mind the monthly and weekly are we better off to mark the Daily speedbumps as "a different color" so they don't become the control zone. If we have a great DBR at the bottom and a RBD at the top would we not want to keep these as our control zones and not muddle with the curve % with every new speedbump.

I am just starting to backtest this idea to see how it would play out but was curious whether anyone else does this or have done this or tested this or even considered this?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #2,254
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:54am Sep 11, 2013 10:54am
Finally broke my losing streak. Took a EU long based on H4 DZ, closed for slightly less than 3R. Would never have taken it in the past because there was no strong departure from the demand zone, so thank you for that Alfonso. This tip itself is priceless. Btw if this was just a fluke and was not according to rules, do feel free to correct me! I'm also wondering if I closed too early, didn't want to toy around with the very obvious S/R flip.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130911 EURUSD H1 Long.png Size: 34 KB
  • #2,255
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:07am Sep 11, 2013 11:07am
Hi is my first post here, can somebody help me. my mt4 is not showing the S/D areas on the 4H time frame and above i dont know why.thank you
  • #2,256
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:15am Sep 11, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Myst1z
Finally broke my losing streak. Took a EU long based on H4 DZ, closed for slightly less than 3R. Would never have taken it in the past because there was no strong departure from the demand zone, so thank you for that Alfonso. This tip itself is priceless. Btw if this was just a fluke and was not according to rules, do feel free to correct me! I'm also wondering if I closed too early, didn't want to toy around with the very obvious S/R flip. {image}
Hello Myst1z,

Congratulations on your successful trade.


However, you entered a trade on that zone before price even made a HH, or took out any supply, so it is an invalid zone.

And if price did finally pull back into it now, you would be too high in the curve, and the zone has a horrible departure.

I would not have taken that trade, but congratulations.


And by the way, Alfonso's advice pertaining to the departure exception rule was ONLY if we're within an original and fresh daily zone. You're not within any HTF zone, and high in the daily curve, so the rule does not pertain to this situation. The departure here matters.
  • #2,257
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:34am Sep 11, 2013 11:34am
Quoting nunez1
Hi is my first post here, can somebody help me. my mt4 is not showing the S/D areas on the 4H time frame and above i dont know why.thank you
Right click your chart, go to indicator list, select the indicator and open its settings, go to visualisation, and make sure all timeframes are selected.
  • #2,258
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:14pm Sep 11, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Right click your chart, go to indicator list, select the indicator and open its settings, go to visualisation, and make sure all timeframes are selected.
got it now thank you Axlz
  • #2,259
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:39pm Sep 11, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting nunez1
{quote} got it now thank you Axlz
My pleasure.
  • #2,260
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:16pm Sep 11, 2013 2:16pm
Alfonso, what do you think?

Daily demand fresh and original:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj daily l.png Size: 53 KB


Go long on 1H fresh zone?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 1h l.png Size: 47 KB




We are also bouncing off of weekly demand:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ week.png Size: 45 KB
0 traders viewing now