Time analysis - "the other half of the picture" | Forex Factory

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Time analysis - "the other half of the picture"

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 26, 2006 6:31pm Jun 26, 2006 6:31pm
Hey all, as well all know the amounts of techniques, methods and studies on price action is both extensive and confusing and certainly there is no need to go into that here. What is becoming more and more clear to me though is that we are really only looking at half of the picture. Think of your charts, we have an x axis and y axis, price on the y axis, and time on the x axis. My question is why are we focusing only on one axis, i.e. the y axis (price), and over all, not spending as much time analysing the other half of the picture, time.

So I thought it might be a good chance to start a thread where we can look into time anaylsis, things like cycles, fibonacci timezones, harmonic beats etc and see if we can't make a few discoveries along the way. It can be very simple things, for example, pull up the 1H EUR/USD, and measure 40-45 bars from a major high or low.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #2
  • Jun 26, 2006 7:25pm Jun 26, 2006 7:25pm
Quoting Akuma99
Hey all, as well all know the amounts of techniques, methods and studies on price action is both extensive and confusing and certainly there is no need to go into that here. What is becoming more and more clear to me though is that we are really only looking at half of the picture. Think of your charts, we have an x axis and y axis, price on the y axis, and time on the x axis. My question is why are we focusing only on one axis, i.e. the y axis (price), and over all, not spending as much time analysing the other half of the picture, time.

So I thought it might be a good chance to start a thread where we can look into time anaylsis, things like cycles, fibonacci timezones, harmonic beats etc and see if we can't make a few discoveries along the way. It can be very simple things, for example, pull up the 1H EUR/USD, and measure 40-45 bars from a major high or low.
This is a nice topic Akuma. Time is also one of the things I'm also looking to learn in the future. I am still quite, let's say, "mastering" the x-axis first.

I am a baby-step taker.. But this may be a thread I will be referring into the future.

Nice thread, and hope a good discussion goes in here.

Regards,
East
  • #3
  • Jun 26, 2006 7:41pm Jun 26, 2006 7:41pm
Quoting Akuma99
Hey all, as well all know the amounts of techniques, methods and studies on price action is both extensive and confusing and certainly there is no need to go into that here. What is becoming more and more clear to me though is that we are really only looking at half of the picture. Think of your charts, we have an x axis and y axis, price on the y axis, and time on the x axis. My question is why are we focusing only on one axis, i.e. the y axis (price), and over all, not spending as much time analysing the other half of the picture, time.
That's because time, as opposed to the price, can only go one way...

Dane
  • #4
  • Jun 26, 2006 8:26pm Jun 26, 2006 8:26pm
A mighty good point there great*dane, which perhaps makes time more important to study as your options are 1 dimensional instead of price which is 3. Of course time alone will not tell us all we need to know to place trades, price in the end rules, but if we can forecast what is going to happen, shouldn't we also be trying to forecast when it is going to happen?

I know this is done by some, fibonacciman (google him, he has a prediction newsletter evidently) is someone who has rave reviews from his fibonacci time analysis in many trading magazines I have read, and I am in the middle of a nice little book called "New Thinking in Technical Analysis", and cycles is a common theme through many of those authors. Clifford Bennet, a very successful fx trader (the author of Warrior Trading, another good read), talks about timing and it's importance also, the problem is there is little talk, and even less info out there on the net that I have found.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #5
  • Jun 26, 2006 8:44pm Jun 26, 2006 8:44pm
In practice, Fib time works best when you have a good time retracement tool and a chart that will let the tool project into the future, beyond the current time AND the chart has time stamps into the future so that you can see where the projections line up.

Best chart pkg for this that I have seen is Dynamic Trader. Also very pricey at $ 1700 plus a monthly feed cost of over $ 100.

Another package with a good fib time tool is CMSVT. Free. The fib time tool can be programmed to highlight or eliminate fib values. BUT the chart itself does not have time stamps into the future.

There is a lot to be learned with the use of fib time.

Lou
  • #6
  • Jun 26, 2006 8:56pm Jun 26, 2006 8:56pm
MT4 also allows you to do this, and while on the axis there is not future time stamps, a click of the middle button or scroll wheel reveals the future time, and of course it is free.

Lou do you currently use fib time? .. any insights you can give?
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #7
  • Jun 26, 2006 10:00pm Jun 26, 2006 10:00pm
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...6/PBVChart.asp

That is a great way to find support and resistance using price action. I haven't been able to find an indicator for MT4. I'm not even sure its possible. Definatly something you should look into to expand your insight into the market though.

Also, look into J-Charts. I've had some pretty impressive results, but the software and general idea takes some time to understand and implement correctly.
  • #8
  • Jun 26, 2006 10:08pm Jun 26, 2006 10:08pm
Yes I have been working with fib time for quite awhile. I use it on the VT platform.

Essentially I use only the levels 38 50 61 100 161

I use hourly charts, 4 hr daily.

Using the VT fib tool .. from a low to a high, the 38 to 61 area will often find a low. High to low will often find a high in that range.

Also measuring from a high to another high.... the 100 level will find a high.
Low to Low gives a low.

Just like most fib studies it is best to take two or three measurements and look for confluence.

Highs and lows can be relative.

Lou
  • #9
  • Jun 26, 2006 11:53pm Jun 26, 2006 11:53pm
My little contribution to the think tank.

If you sub divide the distance travelled in "Y" by a particular move, why not sub divide the distance travelled in "X" by the Same move.
this results in an "XY" axis which is parallell to the original Move.
Attached Image
  • #10
  • Jun 26, 2006 11:57pm Jun 26, 2006 11:57pm
Quoting Makaveli390
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...6/PBVChart.asp

That is a great way to find support and resistance using price action. I haven't been able to find an indicator for MT4. I'm not even sure its possible. Definatly something you should look into to expand your insight into the market though.

Also, look into J-Charts. I've had some pretty impressive results, but the software and general idea takes some time to understand and implement correctly.
PBV - very interesting... I'm not sure if this can be applied to forex though, as there is no reliable volume data for the entire market (volume readings that you can get in MT4 show only your broker's volume).

Dane
  • #11
  • Jun 27, 2006 1:27am Jun 27, 2006 1:27am
Yep volume data in MT4 is useless, it isn't actually even volume from the broker, but tick counts instead as I understand it.

Bemac, your thoughts interest me, but I'm not quite following the chart you posted, can you clarify it at all?
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #12
  • Jun 27, 2006 1:57am Jun 27, 2006 1:57am
Quoting Akuma99

Bemac, your thoughts interest me, but I'm not quite following the chart you posted, can you clarify it at all?
Akuma,
AB is the vertical rise in price from A to C {Y Axis}

BC is the horiz run from A to C {X Axis}

ACD forms a Standard ABC Wave.

The Thinner Red Line that Starts Direcly above D is D + (AB*23%} on the Y axis.

The Red Dot on that line is D + (BC* 23%) on the X axis.

The the Second Blue Line that Starts Direcly above D is D + (AB*50%} on the Y axis.

The Red Dot on that line is D + (BC* 50%) on the X axis.

and so on up to the Blue Line 100% of AB above D .

If you drop a vertical line from the 100% Dot it will intersect the Green Line coming off of D at a distace = to BC

New Image.

AB = EF
BC = DE
Attached Image
  • #13
  • Jun 27, 2006 3:00am Jun 27, 2006 3:00am
Oh ma great thread Akuma! Every Now an then I'm thinking too how to incorporate time in my trading...
Anyhow I remember a guy over the forums, xtsunami. I did some searching and I found out he was active on FF too, here's a link to a thread where he posted some charts: http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...=1214#post1214
He had a thread on moneytec dedicated to time analysis unfortunately he has removed every of his posts afterwards.
-soso
  • #14
  • Jun 27, 2006 9:59am Jun 27, 2006 9:59am
If you know the price is going to rise, it does not matter when it does. Go long, and you will be rewarded as soon as it does.

Insights gained from the time perspective would be useful, however, in identifying a false move from a true (i.e. a move that is likely to continue as against one which is likely to immediately and powerfully reverse). Insights about when a move is likely finished based on the time component of the chart would also help.

Gann did some research on this (though I am unfamiliar with his work), and it has been noted that Forex oscillates between range expansion and range contraction, and that periods of large movement require periods of consolidation ('trading' or sideways moving charts) to balance them, just as periods of consolidation tend to bring about movements to balance their rigidity.
  • #15
  • Jun 27, 2006 2:21pm Jun 27, 2006 2:21pm
Adam, did you check out my last post in the Yahoo Group. We figured out that recent GBP move to the exact position two weeks ago.
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #16
  • Edited 3:39pm Jun 27, 2006 3:28pm | Edited 3:39pm
Gann insisted that time was more important than price.

If you have ever thought price was going to reach a particular s/r level, fib number, or any host of other price points only to change direction before it got there or after your stop was hit as it blew through the area, you will understand what Gann was saying.

There are traders, like xtsunami mentioned earlier, that trade first on time, secondly on price point while most could care less about time. I have witnessed a few who have an understanding that is much deeper than the use of fibonacci time (though this is a good place to start) and it is truly a mind bender to think someone as the ability to have their fingers on the pulse of the market in such a way that they know which candle or bar to trade.

By the way, this is a chart that the aforementioned xtsunami uploaded to that other forum. This is a template of some work he said he did almost a year ago and still valid today.
Attached Image
  • #17
  • Jun 27, 2006 3:52pm Jun 27, 2006 3:52pm
Quoting RogueTrader
Gann insisted that time was more important than price.

If you have ever thought price was going to reach a particular s/r level, fib number, or any host of other price points only to change direction before it got there or after your stop was hit as it blew through the area, you will understand what Gann was saying.

There are traders, like xtsunami mentioned earlier, that trade first on time, secondly on price point while most could care less about time. I have witnessed a few who have an understanding that is much deeper than the use of fibonacci time (though this is a good place to start) and it is truly a mind bender to think someone as the ability to have their fingers on the pulse of the market in such a way that they know which candle or bar to trade.

By the way, this is a chart that the aforementioned xtsunami uploaded to that other forum. This is a template of some work he said he did almost a year ago and still valid today.
I can't see a thing on that chart. It's just a black rectangle. Any chance you can change the background colour and re post?
TIA
  • #18
  • Jun 27, 2006 3:57pm Jun 27, 2006 3:57pm
Lol, RogueTrader care to explain the chart?
-soso
  • #19
  • Jun 27, 2006 4:06pm Jun 27, 2006 4:06pm
Maybe it's a Black Hole in Time.
  • #20
  • Jun 27, 2006 5:33pm Jun 27, 2006 5:33pm
As per your request, a different color background. The quality is tainted because of the resizing needed to upload.
Attached Image
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