Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 109 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,161
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:24am Sep 10, 2013 3:24am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Was this done regarding my post, or simply a coincidence?
It looks like I was writting my post at the same time I woke up and saw that my trades had been triggered and so on, it looks like you were talking about AUDNZD before


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,162
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:25am Sep 10, 2013 3:25am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} {quote} Who cares about departure if we are at a D1 original fresh demand area and we have brand new fresh demand on lower timeframes? Watch the webinars where I talked about that! We're LOW in the curve. I am not gonna sell, that I can tell you Higher odds is buying, so that's what I was expecting to do and what I did. Alfonso
That is very interesting.

Another rule to add to the rulebook.
  • #2,163
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:30am Sep 10, 2013 3:30am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} That is very interesting. Another rule to add to the rulebook.
Don't just add that rule or any other rule I mention on the thread just BECAUSE I did mention it, and I trade accoding to them Samir (or anybody else reading me).

Before you add a new rule to your trading plan you have to:

  1. Understand why that rule exists, scenarios, variables, etc
  2. Backtest it and forward test it in a big sample size, a minimum of 100 similar scenarios or more if possible

This is what we all should do, don't believe in what I do, say or trade. I will never stop repeating it. Do it yourself. Once you forward and backtest your rules (or the rules you have borrowed from my experience), you will stepping into the next stage of your trading.

That's the best tip I can give you all! Don't believe in what I do or say! Test it yourself. Just do it yourself, take the time to do it for weeks! You need to do it in order to believe, you need to believe in order to have a positive and become successful in trading or any other field in life.

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,164
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:32am Sep 10, 2013 3:32am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Don't just add that rule or any other rule I mention on the thread just BECAUSE I did mention it, and I trade accoding to them Samir (or anybody else reading me). Before you add a new rule to your trading plan you have to: Undestand why that rule exists, scenarios, variables, etc Backtest it and forward test it in a big sample size, a minimum of 100 similar scenarios or more if possibleThis is what we all should do, don't believe in what I do, say or trade. I will never stop repeating it. Do it yourself. Once you forward and backtest your...
I understand Alfonso.


I will write a note to test this rule as well on the strategy tester 2.
  • #2,165
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:55am Sep 10, 2013 3:55am
Quoting panoramia
Taking into account the above mentioned spreadsheet... take a look at the CADJPY scenario. Cadjpy supply broken, new D1 demand speedbump confirmed... we should all know what we have to do. I mentioned it on the video yesterday together with 15 or more symbols, if the D1 supply is broken then... You should know by now what you should be looking for. Why? Because we have very strict rules, and rules are for that, to be mechanical and methodical! It's always the same thing over and over and over! Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso,

It seems that even though CADJPY D1's supply has been broken, it is still within W1 supply. Wouldn't that be a concern to go long on the D1 speed bump demand?

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  • #2,166
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:58am Sep 10, 2013 3:58am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi Alfonso, It seems that even though CADJPY D1's supply has been broken, it is still within W1 supply. Wouldn't that be a concern to go long on the D1 speed bump demand? {image}
Let me ask you a question about that Weekly supply area you drew, you will know the answer yourself and you will reasess that WK level...
Others reading this post can also answer...

  1. Has the Weekly supply level you have drawn taken out previous WK demand area?
  2. Can we draw a Weekly downtrend trendline?

Can price drop from there? Definetely it can... but the rules are the rules

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,167
  • Sep 10, 2013 4:04am Sep 10, 2013 4:04am
Alfonso,

Following the rule you have just stated above, would we count this EG 1H demand zone as a good zone ?

I ask because it is extremely wicky, but as you said, it is right on top of D1 Demand, so we shouldn't care?

Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't enter this trade.

Thanks.


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  • #2,168
  • Sep 10, 2013 4:07am Sep 10, 2013 4:07am
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, Following the rule you have just stated above, would we count this EG 1H demand zone as a good zone ? I ask because it is extremely wicky, but as you said, it is right on top of D1 Demand, so we shouldn't care? Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't enter this trade. Thanks. {image}
The base looks great. I don't trade EURGBP, but that looks like a nice entry. I haven't analyze if the D1 is used-up or not, since I don't trade that pair, but according to what I see on your chart, it looks like a good area! The origin, the white base candle is great.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,169
  • Sep 10, 2013 4:08am Sep 10, 2013 4:08am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} The base looks great. I don't trade EURGBP, but that looks like a nice entry. I haven't analyze if the D1 is used-up or not, since I don't trade that pair, but according to what I see on your chart, it looks like a good area! The origin, the white base candle is great. Alfonso
Under normal circumstances, though, even if it did have a nice base, if it had many wicks like that going through the zone, wouldn't it be invalid, as the wicks indicate sell/buy orders being taken up?


Thanks.
  • #2,170
  • Sep 10, 2013 4:10am Sep 10, 2013 4:10am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Under normal circumstances, though, even if it did have a nice base, if it had many wicks like that going through the zone, wouldn't it be invalid, as the wicks indicate sell/buy orders being taken up? Thanks.
Exactly Samir... if the base candles are all composed of wicks, dojis or spinnng tops, it would not be a good base! But like I said.. you should do some backstesting, everybody should. Your mind needs to see in order to believe and set internal rules, that's how our brains work

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,171
  • Sep 10, 2013 4:10am Sep 10, 2013 4:10am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} The base looks great. I don't trade EURGBP, but that looks like a nice entry. I haven't analyze if the D1 is used-up or not, since I don't trade that pair, but according to what I see on your chart, it looks like a good area! The origin, the white base candle is great. Alfonso
on eurgbp we are at D1 original demand zone but it is the 3rd test of this zone..3rd test is at untounched areas of original D1 zone
  • #2,172
  • Edited 4:49am Sep 10, 2013 4:13am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting caparzo
{quote} on eurgbp we are at D1 original demand zone but it is the 3rd test of this zone..3rd test is at untounched areas of original D1 zone
You're right. It is a used up, unfresh zone, so It wouldn't be a good entry anyway.

I just read Alfonso's post again, and he said it should only be done within a fresh, original daily demand.

So we need to combine that with a lower TF fresh area and take the trade, regardless of how "pretty" the area is.
  • #2,173
  • Sep 10, 2013 4:31am Sep 10, 2013 4:31am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Let me ask you a question about that Weekly supply area you drew, you will know the answer yourself and you will reasess that WK level... Others reading this post can also answer... Has the Weekly supply level you have drawn taken out previous WK demand area? Can we draw a Weekly downtrend trendline?Can price drop from there? Definetely it can... but the rules are the rules Alfonso
Hi Alfonso, I see so what you're saying is that the weekly supply is not a strong one because it has not taken out any weekly demand? Also, the weekly down trend line has been broken which means no more down trend?

In other words, if that weekly supply had taken out a previous weekly demand, then it will be a totally different case and we'll no longer be allowed to go long on that D1 speed bump?
  • #2,174
  • Sep 10, 2013 5:14am Sep 10, 2013 5:14am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I see so what you're saying is that the weekly supply is not a strong one because it has not taken out any weekly demand? Also, the weekly down trend line has been broken which means no more down trend? In other words, if that weekly supply had taken out a previous weekly demand, then it will be a totally different case and we'll no longer be allowed to go long on that D1 speed bump?
I mean, if the Weekly supply has not taken out previous demand, then it's not supply, so you shouldn't even draw it. Maybe (won't be in front of my computer for a couple of hours so I can't tell u righ now) on D1 there is a nice D1 supply up there that took out previous D1 demand, which would then validate the D1 supply, but it's not a Weekly supply because it breaks the main rule.

Another thing would be a Weekly imbalance like that right at at Monthly supply, like I have mentioned on some scenarios lately if you remember, that would be like proot there are willing sellers at a Monthly supply, or imagine new H1 supply imbalance that does not take out opposing H1 supply right at a fresh D1 supply, that's different, that's confirmation.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,175
  • Sep 10, 2013 6:19am Sep 10, 2013 6:19am
Quoting fortunateson
{quote} Hi,From post 1973 on page 99http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post6941341and video # 6 on page 1 post 1.I have compiled Alfonzo’s work from this post to an Open Office Document and it is just a rough 1st draft. All one has to do is follow the instructions above the cells and it calculates the actual prices where you should place your orders. Basically all you have to do is enter the proximal, distal and target price in the cell of the pair that you want to trade and it calculates the actual prices. I do want...
Hi, I've been working on this tool which incorperates Alfonsos' work into 1 easy readable place. I want it to show you the exact price to place your orders and what contract size to use with all the guess work removed. I have the detailed explanation on Alfonsos other thread (Supply and demand daily and weekly levels spreadsheet) as not to take up space here so please post questions, comments or improvement ideas there. Info at post 76 page 4 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post6953535

This is what I have so far.

Thanks,

Joe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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File Type: zip Trade data 9 10 13.zip   54 KB | 496 downloads
  • #2,176
  • Sep 10, 2013 6:21am Sep 10, 2013 6:21am
Hello guys i discorevered your thread yesterday and i really liked it....
i am a supply and demand trader myself....and i am a member of pure financial academy....
It's a really nice place to exchange opinions and trading opportunities....!!!
  • #2,177
  • Sep 10, 2013 6:57am Sep 10, 2013 6:57am
GBPAUD approaching original and fresh daily demand:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Fresh 1H demand within the Daily demand:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GA 1H.png Size: 41 KB



Go long on the fresh 1H demand?
  • #2,178
  • Sep 10, 2013 7:00am Sep 10, 2013 7:00am
Quoting Axlz
GBPAUD approaching original and fresh daily demand: {image} Fresh 1H demand within the Daily demand: {image} Go long on the fresh 1H demand?

on the monthly you are to high. Maybe h1 confirmation should take one supply to be valid.
  • #2,179
  • Sep 10, 2013 7:11am Sep 10, 2013 7:11am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} on the monthly you are to high. Maybe h1 confirmation should take one supply to be valid.
Monthly is too high of a TF to use for the 1H trades. Much can happen within a monthly candle.
  • #2,180
  • Sep 10, 2013 7:20am Sep 10, 2013 7:20am
Hello all,

We just hit daily supply on the DAX, we need confirmation though
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