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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #7,301
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:29am Sep 10, 2013 1:29am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} could well be... but I have no position in this pair atm waiting for current bar close...
in which TF?

I am also titubant (?, not sure) on GU and thinking to wait my complete 4h candle (2 and 1/2 to go).
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,302
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:32am Sep 10, 2013 1:32am
Quoting milam
{quote} in which TF? I am also titubant (?, not sure) on GU and thinking to wait my complete 4h candle (2 and 1/2 to go).

sorry shoulda clarified!

i trade primarily on the H4's and Daily

in this case, im talking about H4 (time zone is GMT)

hope it helps

I got long a half position on GU yesterday... not much progress there 20 pips up atm, trailing stop not even at b/e
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,303
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:37am Sep 10, 2013 1:37am
Quoting milam
{quote} 4 trade: buy stop order @ 1.3265 with SL 1.3165. Not bad but nothing substantial yet.
Filled.

Next a buy stop order @ 1.3315 with SL @ 1.3215
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,304
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:40am Sep 10, 2013 1:40am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} sorry shoulda clarified! i trade primarily on the H4's and Daily in this case, im talking about H4 (time zone is GMT) hope it helps I got long a half position on GU yesterday... not much progress there 20 pips up atm, trailing stop not even at b/e
Thank you.

I think I am going to wait for the complete 1 h tf after London open, to see if I feel entering, I would prefer a retracement instead of a BO, but what I like the market does not give a shilling.... (?)
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,305
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:41am Sep 10, 2013 1:41am
Quoting Raza
Every Instrument has its own wave length, its own frequency. System cannot gauge every instrument with accuracy. You may have to code each instrument separately. By then Hair would turn grey....or Baldness may prevail. Its best to get aquainted with 1 or 2 to get bread and butter. Even then there is no need for wasting Time. Best to keep it simple.

Hi Raza,


I think, it is best to create a robust trading system which fits all instruments. Since, at least out of my view, most instruments "vibrate" differently, and sometimes show different behavior in EW (like comodities with their ever extending wave 5's), it seems to be important to not play many instruments, but to focus on only very few, so that you are able to follow them closely and to get expertise.

In my case 75% of trading is done in EU

the rest, mainly long time positions, are done in GU, UJ, Gold and SP500
  • #7,306
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:47am Sep 10, 2013 1:47am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} though i dont entirely agree with what you said, i think it is more true on the lower TF's than the higher ones... your code can optimize the settings/parameters for each instrument you trade, its not that hard to do however, the foundation requirement of this is a rock solid back testing engine AND it must be flexible enough to remain adaptive, because market conditions change (weekly optimization routines?) AND it must have a human operator override capability, because people are smarter than computers (generally speaking... maybe?)...

every time I read back testing I get a cold shiver


what is the result of backtesting: optimization for the past

people should give more emphasis on forward testing


And then another question arise:

with all the time spent on developing and maintaining an automated system: are you sure, you can not get the buck more easy with manually trading? And maybe even more effective?

What is your purpose of having such a system?
  • #7,307
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:50am Sep 10, 2013 1:50am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} every time I read back testing I get a cold shiver what is the result of backtesting: optimization for the past people should give more emphasis on forward testing And then another question arise: with all the time spent on developing and maintaining an automated system: are you sure, you can not get the buck more easy with manually trading? And maybe even more effective? What is your purpose of having such a system?

truthfully speaking, no algo can outperform a human

however, the algo can track and trade a lot more instruments than a human (mine tracks/trades 50)

so on an aggregate basis, the robot generates more net pips/ticks than i do

thats really it... its bread and butter,

not out performance if you or i were to compete with it on a single pair/instrument!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,308
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:51am Sep 10, 2013 1:51am
Quoting godim
{quote} Yes, Markus, Thank you for the file. Important for me.


Hi Godim,

I thought, that I uploaded the file already months ago - but I did not

So I do hope that it helps now.


I scanned the whole Internet for the Raw-data of Swannells findings (maybe in form of an Excel-file), but it seems the data is not available (anymore).
  • #7,309
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:00am Sep 10, 2013 2:00am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} truthfully speaking, no algo can outperform a human however, the algo can track and trade a lot more instruments than a human (mine tracks/trades 50) so on an aggregate basis, the also generates more net pips/ticks than i do thats really it... its bread and butter, not out performance if you or i were to compete with it on a single pair/instrument!

but how can you keep oversight of 50 instruments?


For sake of discussion:

many traders, you can observe it here in FF, suddenly try to trade multiple pairs at the same time. For some it is like throwing multiple darts and hoping that one will hit the target big.

Trading multiple instruments at the same time significantly increases the amount of time for analyzing, trade execution, oversight etc., without necessarily leading to better trade results.

For me, it only makes sense, to scan a very few instruments, where I am very familiar with, for highest probability trades and to only take those.
  • #7,310
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:03am Sep 10, 2013 2:03am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} . For me, it only makes sense, to scan a very few instruments, where I am very familiar with, for highest probability trades and to only take those.
.

Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,311
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:05am Sep 10, 2013 2:05am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} SL to BE +1 EURUSDCALL

arghhhh


that was a stupid fault.

The upward creeping move was clearly corrective, so I should have kept the SL behind my entry.


Well, either I get another chance for loading more shorts today, or I will be contend with the long time shorts I have.
  • #7,312
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:07am Sep 10, 2013 2:07am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but how can you keep oversight of 50 instruments? For sake of discussion: many traders, you can observe it here in FF, suddenly try to trade multiple pairs at the same time. For some it is like throwing multiple darts and hoping that one will hit the target big. Trading multiple instruments at the same time significantly increases the amount of time for analyzing, trade execution, oversight etc., without necessarily leading to better trade results. For me, it only makes sense, to scan a very few instruments, where I am very familiar with,...
Good morning Markus... Very well said. For me, the max pairs I look at is 8 and I never trade them all at the same time. Max is usually 4, but I have had 5 or 6 going at the same time for short periods.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,313
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:08am Sep 10, 2013 2:08am
Quoting milam
{quote} +139 and +89 and +39 EDIT :first and second trades SL is moved to BE.

  • #7,314
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:08am Sep 10, 2013 2:08am
Quoting milam
{quote} Close both trades made around 1%.

  • #7,315
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:09am Sep 10, 2013 2:09am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but how can you keep oversight of 50 instruments? For sake of discussion: many traders, you can observe it here in FF, suddenly try to trade multiple pairs at the same time. For some it is like throwing multiple darts and hoping that one will hit the target big. Trading multiple instruments at the same time significantly increases the amount of time for analyzing, trade execution, oversight etc., without necessarily leading to better trade results. For me, it only makes sense, to scan a very few instruments, where I am very familiar with,...

the robot pips compliments the human pips,

take a pair like eur/usd
if i were to trade it, i may generate 150 net pips a day (for arguments sake, im not sayin im that good!)
if my robot traded it, it may generate 25

but my robot can generate 25 net pips on 50 instruments...
its a welcome supplement to my 150 net pips on a single pair...

this is why the need for optimizing the robot for each instrument is relevant
it is also why optimization needs to be adaptive, and re-run every week
and most important, robot must have the ability to change strategies as market conditions change

a human, no matter how good, cannot track more than half a dozen pairs on a discretionary trading methodology

where the human/robot pairs overlap, human can override robot on trades/bias that the robot would otherwise execute automatically
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,316
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:09am Sep 10, 2013 2:09am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} arghhhh that was a stupid fault. The upward creeping move was clearly corrective, so I should have kept the SL behind my entry. Well, either I get another chance for loading more shorts today, or I will be contend with the long time shorts I have.
From what I have seen, you are already significantly short. All you have to do now is take some profit on the longs you opened at 310x

Keep up the great work. I am watching you
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,317
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:11am Sep 10, 2013 2:11am
Quoting milam
{quote} .
Good morning Milam. Great trading you are doing. Very happy for you. Keep it up bud hai coglioni di ferro
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,318
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:14am Sep 10, 2013 2:14am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} ...human can override robot on trades/bias that the robot would otherwise execute automatically
An essential feature as the robot doesn't care if you get a margin call
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,319
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:20am Sep 10, 2013 2:20am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} arghhhh that was a stupid fault. The upward creeping move was clearly corrective, so I should have kept the SL behind my entry. Well, either I get another chance for loading more shorts today, or I will be contend with the long time shorts I have.
Do not beat up yourself, it is not good for business and more...

Secondly, I am not an advocate of this "move SL to +1, you will be thinking sitting in a tranquil little spot where very fast cars bypassing you at a very high speed moving the air of you hair brows (what I am f@cking talking about?).

Best in my view is to take some off and leave the SL where it initially was. I think.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,320
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:21am Sep 10, 2013 2:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} An essential feature as the robot doesn't care if you get a margin call
trading is a business of risk management

and you are totally right

most people look at upside... i look at downside...

position sizing is just one component, risk models must include exposure thresholds and saturation limits as well

i dont care for an 80% win rate, if the 20% losers will result in a margin call...

warren buffets rules:
#1: dont lose money
#2: dont forget #1

in my view, if your foundation is risk oriented, you would be ok in the long term...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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