Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 108 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,141
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:23pm Sep 9, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting Axlz
EJ 1H short. {image}
Hi Samir,

That H1 short on EJ was not valid for these reasons, they were discussed on last webinar I believe, as well as the new rules on Post #1 and latest video I've uploaded today (the analysis for the week).

  1. D1 supply on the EJ is used-up, this is the 3rd time that has been retested
  2. When that happens, we need that either the H1 ascending TL (not painted on your charts) is solidly broken or previous demand has been taken out

None of that has happened.

We need that in order to verify and "confirm" that there are willing sellers in the used-up area. Either that or no more trades in the zone!

The H4 speedbump supply from last day was a valid one, it had done all that, but it didn't work, well that happens. But then price reaches the D1 supply area for the 3rd time, you need at minimum those conditions, or there will be no trade. Remember that the first pullback is always the highest odds one!

Hope that makes sense to you and anybody looking at the EJ D1 supply and lower timeframe confirmation entries.
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,142
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:26pm Sep 9, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting panoramia
I've uploaded a new video to my YouTube channel, it will be available in half an hour, it's been uploaded. This video is a quick overview swing analysis of most important forex currency pairs as well as some CFD indexes like S&P e-mini 500, Dow e-mini, Russell 2000 and gold. This swing analysis I've made will hold for some days probably, it can be taken like the week's overview. You will see how in just about 1 hour I've gone through all my instruments to decide if there are some tradable opportunities. It's normally faster because I do not have...

Thanks Alfonso, you do a really great work!
  • #2,143
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:31pm Sep 9, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Samir, That H1 short on EJ was not valid for these reasons, they were discussed on last webinar I believe, as well as the new rules on Post #1 and latest video I've uploaded today (the analysis for the week). D1 supply on the EJ is used-up, this is the 3rd time that has been retested When that happens, we need that either the H1 ascending TL (not painted on your charts) is solidly broken or previous demand has been taken outNone of that has happened. We need that in order to verify and "confirm" that there are willing sellers in the...
Thank you Alfonso. This helps clear it up a lot.

Thanks.
  • #2,144
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:39pm Sep 9, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Thank you Alfonso. This helps clear it up a lot. Thanks.
Away now, left for dinner with some friends so I can't tell you. I believe the USDJPy was analyzed on today's video on H4, but if it was not I guess it's similar to the other Yen pairs. Sorry I can't comment on your H1 now, I am away!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,145
  • Edited 5:15pm Sep 9, 2013 1:39pm | Edited 5:15pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Away now, left for dinner with some friends so I can't tell you. I believe the USDJPy was analyzed on today's video on H4, but if it was not I guess it's similar to the other Yen pairs. Sorry I can't comment on your H1 now, I am away! Alfonso
That is fine my friend. Enjoy dinner!

EDIT: After my own analysis on UJ, I've come to the same conclusion as you. Pretty much the same deal with this pair, as you said. No trade.
  • #2,146
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:43pm Sep 9, 2013 9:43pm
Hi Axlz, I don't know it is a valid trendline, it has not get a new high.
  • #2,147
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:49pm Sep 9, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting xyz555
Hi Axlz, I don't know it is a valid trendline, it has not get a new high.
Hello Xyz,

I think you may be correct. Something doesn't look right to me.

I guess we'll just wait for this demand to be broken, since we can't draw any trendlines for this pair on the 1H.


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  • #2,148
  • Sep 9, 2013 10:57pm Sep 9, 2013 10:57pm
Hello,

I was wondering if someone could provide their thoughts on the chart below. There is some indecision before the zone I have drawn, but the candle bodies are very long. Do I still consider my zone a confirmation trade only? I am still learning. Thank you!
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  • #2,149
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:53am Sep 10, 2013 2:53am
EURGBP fresh level h4 long at daily nonfresh area. What do you think Alfonso?
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  • #2,150
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:57am Sep 10, 2013 2:57am
Quoting Shaka_Smart
Hello, I was wondering if someone could provide their thoughts on the chart below. There is some indecision before the zone I have drawn, but the candle bodies are very long. Do I still consider my zone a confirmation trade only? I am still learning. Thank you! {image}
If I remember correctly, that is why is called "accumulation". And if there is too much trading in a zone, pass on it. Time at level = 0 is the rule.
  • #2,151
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:02am Sep 10, 2013 3:02am
Morning everybody!
I just started my trading analysis this morning, a bit late but I had my homework done since yesterday as you could see on the video I uploaded.

Take a look at my spreadsheet SD levels:

  1. What do you see? Purple levels
  2. What does purple color stand for? You should know if you are using the spreadsheet That level has been broken
  3. What should we do first? Check out those pairs and see what happened, if the areas are solidly broken maybe it's time to plan a trade

Both cadjpy and gbpjpy d1 supply broken? Then.....

That's the whole purpose of the higher timeframe's SD spreadsheet apart from having at all times a quick overview of how high or how low we are on the higher timeframe's curves.

Alfonso

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  • #2,152
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:07am Sep 10, 2013 3:07am
Taking into account the above mentioned spreadsheet... take a look at the CADJPY scenario. Cadjpy supply broken, new D1 demand speedbump confirmed... we should all know what we have to do.

I mentioned it on the video yesterday together with 15 or more symbols, if the D1 supply is broken then... You should know by now what you should be looking for. Why? Because we have very strict rules, and rules are for that, to be mechanical and methodical!

It's always the same thing over and over and over!
Alfonso
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  • #2,153
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:10am Sep 10, 2013 3:10am
Alfonso, on NZDUSD i will allow to buy on h4 if daily supply wasnt hit but its closer to daily supply? I use only h4 and weekly charts. Weekly i am closer to weekly demand!
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  • #2,154
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:13am Sep 10, 2013 3:13am
AUDNZD 1H long opportunity at demand.

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  • #2,155
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:14am Sep 10, 2013 3:14am
Quoting Axlz
AUDNZD 1H long opportunity at demand. {image}

there is no strong departure
  • #2,156
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:15am Sep 10, 2013 3:15am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} there is no strong departure
The departure is 2:1 which is all we need at the beginning of a trend.

Demand candle = 8 pips. The subsequent movement of price upwards was over 16 pips.
  • #2,157
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:18am Sep 10, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} The departure is 2:1 which is all we need at the beginning of a trend. Demand candle = 8 pips. The subsequent movement of price upwards was over 16 pips.
Or I may be wrong? Do you want to chip in on this Alfonso?
  • #2,158
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:20am Sep 10, 2013 3:20am
Take a look at one sample of the kind of trading that I am doing. As I told you, I am trading both a H1 and an H4 account.

Look at 2 different entries on the same pair but different timeframes. AUDZND long at D1 demand, confirmation trade.

H4: on the H4 chart we had a brand new H4 demand area formed, so I took the first retest
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H1: on H1, we had the same scenario but my entry was on the H1 chart
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Same scenario and entries, different lot sizes because widths were different as well as account's equity.

Just decide which timeframe combination you are going to trade and use that same combo ALWAYS. Don't switch! Maybe after quite a few months you will be able to do it, or maybe you shouldn't even do it. If H4 works for you and u are profitable, then why adding another entry timeframe to your decision process... Thing about it.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,159
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:22am Sep 10, 2013 3:22am
Quoting panoramia
Take a look at one sample of the kind of trading that I am doing. As I told you, I am trading both a H1 and an H4 account. Look at 2 different entries on the same pair but different timeframes. AUDZND long at D1 demand, confirmation trade. H4: on the H4 chart we had a brand new H4 demand area formed, so I took the first retest {image} H1: on H1, we had the same scenario but my entry was on the H1 chart {image} Same scenario and entries, different lot sizes because widths were different as well as account's equity. Just decide which timeframe combination...


Was this done regarding my post, or simply a coincidence?
  • #2,160
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:23am Sep 10, 2013 3:23am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} there is no strong departure
Quoting Axlz
{quote} The departure is 2:1 which is all we need at the beginning of a trend. Demand candle = 8 pips. The subsequent movement of price upwards was over 16 pips.
Who cares about how nice and well dressed our friend departure is if we are at a D1 original fresh demand area and we have brand new fresh demand on lower timeframes?

Watch the webinars where I talked about that! We're LOW in the curve. I am not gonna sell, that I can tell you Higher odds is buying, so that's what I was expecting to do and what I did.

Alfonso
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