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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #7,061
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:20pm Sep 6, 2013 9:20pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} First off, thanks for the well thought out reply. I do appreciate it as my original comment was made in hopes of starting a productive conversation. Glad to see that it worked. I do understand what you are trying to do by hedging or even going against your LT targets for a period of mean reversion. But I suppose my point is that I don't think right now it would give the highest expected value. I.E., let's say for argument sake that there is a 50%/50% chance of the euro moving into an extended wave 5 or a diagonal wave 2. The obvious target...
well i guess i just buy low sell high and visa verso and see where those Waves's are taking me...but i'll find out...
  • #7,062
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:28pm Sep 6, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} that is part of it....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_oil_(cryptography)
Lol...
You are funny!
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #7,063
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:36pm Sep 6, 2013 9:36pm
Quoting Raza
{quote} Lol... You are funny!
the above may be however this one is more serious....



case in point :

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamo...han-you-think/
  • #7,064
  • Sep 6, 2013 11:05pm Sep 6, 2013 11:05pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Trading is a high educated game on probabilities.

Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,065
  • Sep 7, 2013 1:43am Sep 7, 2013 1:43am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} First off, thanks for the well thought out reply. I do appreciate it as my original comment was made in hopes of starting a productive conversation. Glad to see that it worked. I do understand what you are trying to do by hedging or even going against your LT targets for a period of mean reversion. But I suppose my point is that I don't think right now it would give the highest expected value. I.E., let's say for argument sake that there is a 50%/50% chance of the euro moving into an extended wave 5 or a diagonal wave 2. The obvious target...

Hi BIG,

thank you for laying out your thoughts.

Yes, all your points are valid.


The points are:


a) the core position is traded on the daily TF - whereas the "pseudo-hedging" positions are traded on the M1 to M15 TF (normally). That means, I am normally quick in an out with this positions.

b) if you are in fear of kind of missing the train, simply do not pseudo-hedge the whole position (or more). When doing it in this way, your account is hit by more drawdown, but helps to avoid the missing the train experience (or feel).


c) when movement slows down, or movement gets creeping and overlapping, it is a perfect situation to play the momentum indicators or mean reverting models on the lower TF's.


d) my experience with waiting for "extended" fifth or generally wave 5 is, that often enough we simply do not get it, because count is wrong (in the end it was an ABC-move)


e) if your success rate in trading YOUR system is high, the benefits of hedging trades far outweigh the danger of missing the train. Even if you miss the train: wait for the next one

Since you put up your hedging trades in strong support/resistance zones, chances are high that price reacts. For the case that the big boys simply push the price through this zones, chances are high, that price will retest this zones from the other side.
  • #7,066
  • Sep 7, 2013 1:52am Sep 7, 2013 1:52am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} the above may be however this one is more serious.... case in point : http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamo...han-you-think/
Good article.. excellent comments... particularly the one by J. Foster
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,067
  • Sep 7, 2013 2:03am Sep 7, 2013 2:03am
Poland Confiscates Half Of Private Pension Funds To "Cut" Sovereign Debt Load

Zerohedge >>> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...eign-debt-load
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,068
  • Sep 7, 2013 2:07am Sep 7, 2013 2:07am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} ...For the case that the big boys simply push the price through this zones, chances are high, that price will retest this zones from the other side.
I have always advocated this point in numerous previous posts in my thread.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,069
  • Sep 7, 2013 2:23am Sep 7, 2013 2:23am
Quoting milam
{quote} It is already 6: 30, here is spring time, at 5:30 the birds singing very loudly especially the kookaburras, yes I would like to prove that technical analysis is a bluff. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBMbk2v6vQA
My risk for every trade is 10%, yes 10%. Lets see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,070
  • Sep 7, 2013 2:52am Sep 7, 2013 2:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Who said "This month No"? You have to look at the bigger picture. 1. The unemployment rate is falling as expected by the Fed 2. The net new jobs report (NFP) is still in positive territory and consistently above 100k 3. The US jobless claims is consistently falling. 4. US PMI figures for both mfg and Svcs is strong 5. The US GDP is above 2% 6. The Fed makes decisions based of future projections and with the latest figures, it looks like their projections are still in line. 7. The latest beige book suggests further improvement in US economy....

Hi PT,

well, you know we are in the same boat - long USD, short SP500 LOL

But with the outlook for US economy I strongly disagree:





1. The unemployment rate is falling as expected by the Fed

but do the know abou the labor force participation rate: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...or-force-parti


and do they know this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-06/guggenheim-us-jobs-growth-mirage


or this:


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-05/gallup-unemployment-rate-surges-highest-2011




2. The net new jobs report (NFP) is still in positive territory and consistently above 100k

I think that means nothing. Politicians ignore the fact, that due to population growth and other factors we do need much more than that.


Read this for example: http://www.economicpopulist.org/cont...ulation-growth

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-06/chart-day-august-job-additions-or-rather-losses-age-group




3. The US jobless claims is consistently falling.

yes, maybe, but quality of jobs and payments is falling rapidely http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...lutely-abysmal

Another point to ponder is, that most jobs added are no-producing jobs. But in a debt-crisis, the only solution is to PRODUCE out of debt.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-31/if-you-want-know-why-things-are-falling-apart-look-total-debt

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/guest-post-if-these-are-fastest-growing-jobs-america-were-doomed



And as we all know politicians, they are very creative in manipulating numbers. Real jobless claims are certainly much much higher

Read this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...data-rises-rec


4. US PMI figures for both mfg and Svcs is strong

consider this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-06/220-years-jobs-jobs-jobs




5. The US GDP is above 2%

on the second sight this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...side-recession

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-30/myth-busting-lakshman-achuthan-us-worse-japan-90s

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-23/us-recession

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-26/guest-post-recession-never-ended-2008-2013-and-counting




6. The Fed makes decisions based of future projections and with the latest figures, it looks like their projections are still in line.





7. The latest beige book suggests further improvement in US economy.


Well "suggest" is the right term:



read this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...orker-shortage




8. Bernanke is retiring soon and will want to make sure the taper has started before that.

That is a point. Even Obama talked about tapering on the G20. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...self-fed-chair

But besides of that, there are real hard facts, that FED is cornered and has to taper. Read for examle this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...s-data-useless

When printing money loses its magig http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...oses-its-magic




9. Whatever I have failed to mention above

most importantly LOL


read this:



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-06/porn-industry-blamed-temporary-softness-jobs-data


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-06/great-rotation-out-actors-and-waiters



and then this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ing-taper-talk


or this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...s-fundamentals


and this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...siegel-missing


Sorry for only providing Zerohedge links - was to lazy to look elsewhere

Sorry PT for blasting the arguments Maybe I look at it too one sided.



The reason the USD will appreciate against the EURO, out of my view, do not lie inside a "recovery" of the US-economic data. I wrote about it many times before. Last time here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ty#post6909963



Hope, I provided enough food for thoughts for another BORING weekend LOL
  • #7,071
  • Sep 7, 2013 2:59am Sep 7, 2013 2:59am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi PT, well, you know we are in the same boat - long USD, short SP500 LOL But with the outlook for US economy I strongly disagree: 1. The unemployment rate is falling as expected by the Fed but do the know abou the labor force participation rate: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...or-force-parti and do they know this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-growth-mirage or this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...s-highest-2011...
All extremely valid points and despite most of the news coming from Zerohedge, I still agree with all of them.
However, none of that matters. What matters is that the data that is published lines up with what Bernanke said he will use as a trigger to start tapering.
I could go into detail, but it is Saturday, the sun is shining, and I am getting away from my computer to enjoy the weekend.
We can pick up on this again on Monday
Enjoy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,072
  • Sep 7, 2013 3:14am Sep 7, 2013 3:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} All extremely valid points and despite most of the news coming from Zerohedge, I still agree with all of them. However, none of that matters. What matters is that the data that is published lines up with what Bernanke said he will use as a trigger to start tapering. I could go into detail, but it is Saturday, the sun is shining, and I am getting away from my computer to enjoy the weekend. We can pick up on this again on Monday Enjoy

Hi PT,

definitively (red marked above) right. When you are cornered in (I mean the FED), you have to create your own reality to save your face.

Besides of that, to say from one Elliottican to another: their fate is already visible in the EW structures :nerd:


Hey, wish you a very nice weekend. Do not forget your daily dose of Cappuccino. Here, near Frankfurt, it is raining cats and dogs , whereas the sun is shining in Malta as well as most parts of the Alps. Do I need to change location?

http://www.earthcam.com/malta/valletta/

http://www.feratel.com/webcams-wette...l/galtuer.html
  • #7,073
  • Sep 7, 2013 3:25am Sep 7, 2013 3:25am
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz2eBxzE9Qf


UJ possible count
  • #7,074
  • Sep 7, 2013 4:15am Sep 7, 2013 4:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
Poland Confiscates Half Of Private Pension Funds To "Cut" Sovereign Debt Load Zerohedge >>> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...eign-debt-load

What the f......?

Insaneness spreads wide, lately.....
  • #7,075
  • Sep 7, 2013 4:16am Sep 7, 2013 4:16am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...hink-nsa-lying

Consequently, it’s IMPOSSIBLE for the NSA to have cracked everything. And my assessment is that this is an intimidation campaign.

The NSA wants people to think that they have this capability.

And if everyone thinks that the NSA is Big Brother’s Big Brother, all-seeing and all-knowing, then not only will everyone be terrified, but everyone will simply stop using encryption.

After all, why bother going through the hassle of encrypting/decrypting if the NSA can still read the contents of your email?
  • #7,076
  • Sep 7, 2013 5:28am Sep 7, 2013 5:28am
More weekend reading


http://rt.com/op-edge/g20-hijacked-b...-doctrine-450/

G20 hijacked by scan/drone/bomb Obama Doctrine
  • #7,077
  • Sep 7, 2013 5:32am Sep 7, 2013 5:32am
Footage of chemical attack in Syria is fraud

http://rt.com/op-edge/mother-chemica...age-fraud-509/

snip-set:


The key evidence is that Reuters made these files public at 6.05 in the morning. The chemical attack is said to have been launched between 3 and 5 o’clock in the morning in Guta. How is it even possible to collect a dozen different pieces of footage, get more than 200 kids and 300 young people together in one place, give them first aid and interview them on camera, and all that in less than three hours? Is that realistic at all? As someone who works in the news industry, you know how long all of it would take.

The bodies of children and teenagers we see in that footage – who were they? What happened to them? Were they killed for real? And how could that happen ahead of the gas attack? Or, if they were not killed, where did they come from? Where are their parents? How come we don’t see any female bodies among all those supposedly dead children?

I am not saying that no chemical agent was used in the area – it certainly was. But I insist that the footage that is now being peddled as evidence had been fabricated in advance. I have studied it meticulously, and I will submit my report to the UN Human Rights Commission based in Geneva.
  • #7,078
  • Sep 7, 2013 5:48am Sep 7, 2013 5:48am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I wrote about it many times before.
Have to agree. The Dollar has it's problems but when it comes to EURUSD, it's the Euro side we should be looking to for our LT bias imo; it's starting to crack!
  • #7,079
  • Sep 7, 2013 6:23am Sep 7, 2013 6:23am
Quoting infinitus
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz2eBxzE9Qf UJ possible count
This Elliotwave is before NFP reaction, as the price has touched the 98.50.. ¿ so now ???
  • #7,080
  • Edited 8:32am Sep 7, 2013 8:10am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} b) if you are in fear of kind of missing the train, simply do not pseudo-hedge the whole position (or more). When doing it in this way, your account is hit by more drawdown, but helps to avoid the missing the train experience (or feel). c) when movement slows down, or movement gets creeping and overlapping, it is a perfect situation to play the momentum indicators or mean reverting models on the lower TF's. .
Nah, there is no "fear" of missing the train. It's all about which decisions give the highest expected value. And it's not only about earning as many pips as we can, it's also about preserving capital and protecting against losses. How many times have you seen a ST set up get blown out of the water in favor of a LT trend? Countless I'm sure. Pretty frustrating when you lose money trading against your correct LT analysis.

IMO, your most valid point is about trading certain typical times of reversion/retracement. I do agree that we can look to scalp out some contra pips at obvious times, i.e. after the London close, near Tokyo's open, Franky open, etc..

But trading is a very personal business. If you've gotten burned being uber patient and riding big waves and then couldn't change your mentality and take profits then obviously that will skew your decision making. It's up to us all to know what works within our mental processes.

Thanks for the convo, GL.
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