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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #42,701
  • Edited 11:09am Sep 4, 2013 10:53am | Edited 11:09am
wow what happened?
sorry i fell asleep waiting.

somethings sank?
whatever thanks, aud squared.

premature jerk
see what did i say, even small overnights can get big pips.

now to get rest. need plan for fomc.
goodnite my friends.

regards
  • #42,702
  • Sep 4, 2013 2:59pm Sep 4, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting fti
{quote} How may i be of assistance, my friend. Is a mindset. No one can tell. but if you wanted ride, surely you know how not to allow a good thing turn bad. you was not cautious after you ride good. but it happens to the best of us. This reason why i take profits incrementally once i feel is good. sometimes i right, sometimes wrong. But mostly i feel maybe you didn't manage anymore when you got deep in the money. All i can tell you is , just be glad you didn't lost. So you didn't need spent another day managing damage control. is just 1 battle...
reading this post I feel I am not very off the mark in my mindset.may be its my mind playing tricks on me or may be my ego,let me watch more water pass under the bridge.may God bless u.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #42,703
  • Sep 4, 2013 8:49pm Sep 4, 2013 8:49pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Thanks Phil, Always have question, should i remeber good time for leaving old places/people or look fwd to new place and forget about old... V
Recall the old and look forward to the new. nothing is forever. you can always go back to the old.

Good luck, wish you well.
  • #42,704
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:36am Sep 5, 2013 1:36am
FTI,

Sorry for the naive question, but what do you mean by squaring a position ( Square up - Square Down )??

As I searched for the terminology and found out it means hedging a position.


"When a dealer is in a square position, the positions are perfectly hedged. If the dealer is not in a square position, then he or she is taking either a long or a short position. A square position is in the middle, neither net long nor net short."
Enter Signature
  • #42,705
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:41am Sep 5, 2013 1:41am
Hi Guys
Hope everybody well
Today i want to share FTI posts on patterns
Link 1
Link 2
Link 3
Link 4
Enjoy
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #42,706
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:53am Sep 5, 2013 1:53am
Quoting CHFJunkie
FTI, Sorry for the naive question, but what do you mean by squaring a position ( Square up - Square Down )?? As I searched for the terminology and found out it means hedging a position. "When a dealer is in a square position, the positions are perfectly hedged. If the dealer is not in a square position, then he or she is taking either a long or a short position. A square position is in the middle, neither net long nor net short."
Hi CHFJunkie
The terminology is :


flat = no profit no loss

squared = no positions exposed

hope it helps
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #42,707
  • Edited 3:22am Sep 5, 2013 2:28am | Edited 3:22am
ai ya. make volatility?
no no i not sell cable here.
not sell euros also
you want bring back to 1.32 where was before i went sleep
otherwise you can starve and wait.

i wait helicopter.


regards

what this new wordi keep hearing, tapering?
just say we no more money , stop QE3 extended.
what tapering?
is failed. QE failed bring about the desired impact.

just say failings.
逝要面
Attached Image
  • #42,708
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:37am Sep 5, 2013 2:37am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} Hi CHFJunkie The terminology is : flat = no profit no loss squared = no positions exposed hope it helps Michael
thanks for your help.

What about square up / down?
Enter Signature
  • #42,709
  • Edited 2:56am Sep 5, 2013 2:42am | Edited 2:56am
Quoting CHFJunkie
FTI, Sorry for the naive question, but what do you mean by squaring a position ( Square up - Square Down )?? As I searched for the terminology and found out it means hedging a position. "When a dealer is in a square position, the positions are perfectly hedged. If the dealer is not in a square position, then he or she is taking either a long or a short position. A square position is in the middle, neither net long nor net short."

if you boss ask you square up' just means buy back yall your shorts.
if ask square down means sell away all your longs.

square means no risk, or he will kick your butt.

if have options you cannot square depending , only if you in american options.

if you have british options you need make boxes contain the risk.
but really delta 0 is not squared.
you still have sigma risk.
but as you said, if you have box hedge, so you have minimal risk exposure if volatility is good boy.

regards
  • #42,710
  • Edited 3:53am Sep 5, 2013 2:57am | Edited 3:53am
i listening a conversation. Is very funny.

is a friend , we just call boy and huge. not nice show his real identity.

hugh: "I started meditating, and I know twice a day I can kind of let everything drop. It's just about being quiet, like drawing back the day, and it allows me to have energy."

boy:My problem is opposite too much energy what should I do krub. Haha

when a man have too mch energy and not know what to do with it. is a very dangerous man?
ai ya some men. may be he need get a hobby?

i replied dead silence.

i forgot now ny is 4 am.

regards

Inserted Video
  • #42,711
  • Sep 5, 2013 4:13am Sep 5, 2013 4:13am
FTI, just a recap about the 3 kingdoms.

We analyze Eur/Usd , Gbp/Usd and Usd/Yen.

Daily , Hourly and 5 min Charts.

1st Q , do you do a top down approach or start from 5 minutes up?

2nd Question , Daily Charts , do you analyze last bar or last bar formation (3-4 bars ) or last trending ?
Enter Signature
  • #42,712
  • Edited 5:34am Sep 5, 2013 4:48am | Edited 5:34am
Quoting CHFJunkie
FTI, just a recap about the 3 kingdoms. We analyze Eur/Usd , Gbp/Usd and Usd/Yen. Daily , Hourly and 5 min Charts. 1st Q , do you do a top down approach or start from 5 minutes up? 2nd Question , Daily Charts , do you analyze last bar or last bar formation (3-4 bars ) or last trending ?
sorry i not understand the rigidity.

i analyse charts based on need. i not a computer.
When there is events. I looking at everything. top & bottom. and i try decipher whats the market thinking about whats happening and what they doing.
i scan very fast across the board. Where there is smoke i send scouts.
where ther no smokes, i smokes. What analysing bar tells? 1 bar is same as another. Is the past.
Question is only how they relations with each other.
Past relation not say what their future looks like. But certain behaviours can indicate how naughty they are.
i send scouts smoke them out.
if scout dies, then i need be careful.

is some crazy people like tell stories about 3 crows and all sorts formations.
thats their business.
compound patterns can be formed from any amount of bars.
i no need be right or wrong, just need my army survives, bar or no bar.

you seem thinks i analyse and send my armies out.
my army is continuesously active. i repond to their needs than what is analysis.
analysis is only help strategise how dispatch the response.


regards

just to help you understand.
3 kingdoms is relationship of married pairs. sometimes have 3rd parties depending on situation.
if you not understand the ground terrain and the relationships.
Then looking at picture is just telling how they treating each other.
says nothing about whats actually happening.
You can only know more by whats happening to your scouts.

I not understand your top down , or bottoms up thingy.
If you traded long enoung you scan the charts , it tells you stuff.
you need send men on the ground and determine whats real and whats deception.
you no men on ground you just guessing.

example now, i no men on ground, because terrain tells of big volatility ahead.
everyone is guessing what the impact.
i have 2 choices.
send men in try feel the gamblers guesses or wait for event and watch them panic.
depends on my book, i calculating see how much can be put on ground and how much hide in bunkers.

so far nothing decided yet.
just waiting.

if not for the expected event, they would be dancing in and out of the ground.
since seems someone may send icbms, i just wait see, too dangerous have peeps out.

at this moment of time, all patterns are lies.
just peeps positioning. 1 side will attack when event occurs, 1 side will panic.

even then, if any one wants try anything my men are ready mobilise.
but they very careful because something is going to happen.
and the pseudo gods not decided yet.
so we wait.
  • #42,713
  • Sep 5, 2013 5:56am Sep 5, 2013 5:56am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Thanks Phil, Always have question, should i remeber good time for leaving old places/people or look fwd to new place and forget about old... V
my friend

just want you feel,
if you have to move you have to move.
that the reality.
you may reminise the old and will need to face new faces and environment.
what ever you feel , is not going to change the fact that to undertake the new resposibilities, you need move.
there no other way.

just smile and accept the reality.
just archieve ny as your good old days.
Tomorrow is another day.

And you best get prepared face it head on, put best leg forward.
my friend,

regards
  • #42,714
  • Sep 5, 2013 6:10am Sep 5, 2013 6:10am
Thanks for the comprehensive reply.
Enter Signature
  • #42,715
  • Sep 5, 2013 6:11am Sep 5, 2013 6:11am
ok back 1.32
ok lets see if my bias on usd is going survive the scouts.

I hope i not get too engaged.
is scary terrains still.
  • #42,716
  • Sep 5, 2013 6:20am Sep 5, 2013 6:20am
iron lady also no movements. no rates change.
all quiet on the western fronts.

i gonna shower with smoe scout already out.
us employment figs may drive.
lets see how next report card. eta 1 hours time.
  • #42,717
  • Sep 5, 2013 7:39am Sep 5, 2013 7:39am
Draghi: Inflation expected to remain subdued

ya he so clever.
ask him to explain to India.
They exported it then they say is subdued.

very clever.
ai ya say anything they like la
  • #42,718
  • Sep 5, 2013 7:56am Sep 5, 2013 7:56am
Price took previous day lows
some siting ducks i think
What about rabber bands ?
Very fast move without pull back means market maker have to take opposite direction
am i correct ?
When they will have a chance of selling the USD ?
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #42,719
  • Sep 5, 2013 8:37am Sep 5, 2013 8:37am
not much chance.
seems no one dare exposed for too long.

small pips also pips.
  • #42,720
  • Sep 5, 2013 8:40am Sep 5, 2013 8:40am
Quoting -Michael-
Price took previous day lows some siting ducks i think What about rabber bands ? Very fast move without pull back means market maker have to take opposite direction am i correct ? When they will have a chance of selling the USD ?

This time i think market makers short before moved.
they probabaly the ones profit taking.
but i not sure yet.

I was watching how they stood still after they took out north ducks.
then 1 gapping.
and now probably everyone's squared.

by everyone i talking about pros.
The ducks they will always be around.
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