Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 100 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,981
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:07am Sep 5, 2013 1:07am
Quoting Reacto
USDCAD is in an up-trend ad the moment, but high on daily, weekly and monthly curve. When daily demand gets broken, some nice trades may present themselves. {image}
I am also agree with you.
  • #1,982
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:15am Sep 5, 2013 1:15am
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, I just closed EURNZD and NZDUSD trades so I can end today (due to the upcoming news volatility). And my EURUSD and GBPUSD limits were both missed by 1-2 pips. In just 2 trades (That we prematurely closed due to news), I am out of drawdown and back where i started! Amazing!!!!
I'm glad that you are back on the right track my friend. This is what I was talking about on one of my last messages to you. The "low" accuracy is not an excuse for a difficult to grasp and subjective strategy, it's a fact. Those were my words.

Congratulations, it looks like you are now on stage 2. 10 extra points for you, you are now on Stage 2

  1. Seeing
  2. Believing
  3. Entering the trades and removing "part" of your feelings
  4. Enjoying life
  5. Helping other on the first and second stages

Quote
What we have with this method is a coin, that is weighted on one side, to fall that side up, 70% of the time. We do not know the sequence in which it will fall that side up, or in which sequence it will fall at all for that matter. There could be 5 consecutive flips where the coin falls on the lighter side, before falling on our side for 10 consecutive flips, or any other combination for that matter. We DO NOT KNOW. We must accept the randomness of the market, and acknowledge that anything could happen. However, we do know that we HAVE AN EDGE....

This is the edge that all Casinos in Las Vegas have. That's why the casinos exist. Trading is seen like gambling by many, ask the spread betters UK people We do have an edge and an statitical advantage over the market.

Any forex strategy must supposedly have an edge, or it won't work. But the the final edge is in your head, controlling your emotional side (fear, patience, greed). And there I can't help, either you make it or you don't make. Mark Douglas does a good job explaining key things, but the final steps have to be taken by anybody wanting to become profitable in trading or successful in any field in life.

The Secret book is another example. You are now starting to believe (stage 2). But nobody can help you achieve that step, you have to do it yourself, you have to reach that realization yourself. The Secret book talks about the law of attraction and how your positive thinking can attract wealth to your life, but that doesn't work so easy. Your mindset is key and there is no pill you can take to change that. It all comes with time and willingness to believe and change.

Quote
But this can only happen if we trade every valid setup we see for our method, fearlessly and without hesitation. We must take advantage of all the valid chances we see, as you have said, in order to harness the full power of our "edge". If we trade with fear, and skip valid setups for our strategy, we will skew the results of our "edge", as we will miss out on profitable trades. Even if we manage to skip a few losing trades, it doesn't matter, because in the end, this mentality will ALWAYS lead to overall loss. To become successful, we have...

We do have an edge. If you have 40% success and 3:1 fix TP then you will a profitable trader, but after some months of practice and experience, that 40% will become 60% or even 65%. Do not strive to reach 80 or 90%. The harder you try to be that successfull the worst your results will be, because you will be trying to feed your ego. Your ego will not make you money, your emotional control and edge will. We're not here to feed our egos or be the best traders in the world, we're here to earn money by trading supply and demand.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,983
  • Edited 1:40am Sep 5, 2013 1:18am | Edited 1:40am
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, I just closed EURNZD and NZDUSD trades so I can end today (due to the upcoming news volatility). And my EURUSD and GBPUSD limits were both missed by 1-2 pips. In just 2 trades (That we prematurely closed due to news), I am out of drawdown and back where i started! Amazing!!!!
It looks like I was triggered on the EURUSD H4 short supply. I didn't miss that one "luckily"! Let's see what happens because today there are big news. On this one, I will move my SL to Breakeven prematurely, because market can be very volatile today and tomorrow.
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USDCHF, euro's mirror is pulling back to the D1 distal line H4 supply area, used-up area. This could be the time that the D1 supply is broken, hopefully it will, and if it does my EURUSD short will work nicely.
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The $index has fully penetrated to the pip (82.56) the D1 supply area, second pullback. If this one breaks, we have some room to previous D1 supply at 83.09. Remember that on the $ index, we're bouncing of a fresh and original Weekly demand.
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Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,984
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:31am Sep 5, 2013 1:31am
Quoting handy148
Alfonso - I can't understand why but your support and resistance indi does not show up on my charts.
Neither can I, since others can!

I've made a couple of changes to both the support_resistance and ADR indicator in order to remove the use of libraries and alerts. It no longer should need the use of libraries attached originally in the indicators.zip file you can download from Post #1. It looks like your problem is that you didn't install the libraries provided in the zip, maybe. Now the libraries should no longer be needed.

Download the indicators.zip file from post #1 and install the indicators again. That should work. If it doens't, then it's that you have not installed them properly!

Hope that helps
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,985
  • Edited 1:58am Sep 5, 2013 1:45am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} thank's for the lesson Alfonso . still a lot to learn.
Hi Sebastian,
Look what your EURJPY short did at 131.27 level. I just wanted to show and remind others of the fact that we can only wait for a confirmation type of trade when price hits the high timeframe SD area, in this case the D1 supply. Waiting for lower levels is trading prematurely and that can cause unnecessary losses. Hope you could at least move your SL to breakeven on that EJ short!

It's now that we need to wait for confirmation and look for a short trade, if it didn't happen already... Well, it did happen already on H1, already in play. So next one! We need 130.98 demand area to be taken out now.

You are doing a great job, really really great job! I must congratulate you again Sebastian!
Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,986
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:14am Sep 5, 2013 2:14am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Sebastian, Look what your EURJPY short did at 131.27 level. I just wanted to show and remind others of the fact that we can only wait for a confirmation type of trade when price hits the high timeframe SD area, in this case the D1 supply. Waiting for lower levels is trading prematurely and that can cause unnecessary losses. Hope you could at least move your SL to breakeven on that EJ short! It's now that we need to wait for confirmation and look for a short trade, if it didn't happen already... Well, it did happen already on H1, already...
Hi Alfonso,
thank's again

yes I was lucky to finish this trade at BE. Sometimes i am a bitt impatient and do trades like that, but fortunately rarely .
I have seen this setup, but didn't take it. As you said, wait for the next one .
It is great that we can share our view on the market and doubts in here. There will be always someone more experienced and show us if we are right or not .
  • #1,987
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:28am Sep 5, 2013 2:28am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Hi Alfonso, thank's again yes I was lucky to finish this trade at BE. Sometimes i am a bitt impatient and do trades like that, but fortunately rarely . I have seen this setup, but didn't take it. As you said, wait for the next one . It is great that we can share our view on the market and doubts in here. There will be always someone more experienced and show us if we are right or not .
Look at my charts. That level you chose didnt sit in D1 supply (on my charts) and when price reacted around that area it would have taken out my SL. Crazy how different price is from one broker to the next.

What broker do you use Seb?

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Nick
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #1,988
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:32am Sep 5, 2013 2:32am
Hello Alfonso,

it mean, to short trade. we waiting demand area 130.98 - 130.64 absorbed?


thank's
Ryo.


Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Sebastian, Look what your EURJPY short did at 131.27 level. I just wanted to show and remind others of the fact that we can only wait for a confirmation type of trade when price hits the high timeframe SD area, in this case the D1 supply. Waiting for lower levels is trading prematurely and that can cause unnecessary losses. Hope you could at least move your SL to breakeven on that EJ short! It's now that we need to wait for confirmation and look for a short trade, if it didn't happen already... Well, it did happen already on H1, already...
from loser to be hero
  • #1,989
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:40am Sep 5, 2013 2:40am
Quoting rio cyrano
Hello Alfonso, it mean, to short trade. we waiting demand area 130.98 - 130.64 absorbed? thank's Ryo. {quote}
Hi Ryo,

I am not waiting to go long on EURJPY, because we are too high in the curve, that's not allowed with our rules! Take a look at my D1 chart and SD areas as well as the new % at the upper right corner. We're right now too high in the curve, buying in not allowed. This information allows us to mechanically negate a long trade, that simple! Can long trades work? Of course they can, but it would not be trading with the basic principles of supply and demand. But again, it all depends on where your higher timeframes zones are painted.

There is a Bank Of Japan press conference right now, that's why we're having so much volatility on Yen pairs right now! Some big nippon boy open his mouth

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,990
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:42am Sep 5, 2013 2:42am
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} Look at my charts. That level you chose didnt sit in D1 supply (on my charts) and when price reacted around that area it would have taken out my SL. Crazy how different price is from one broker to the next. What broker do you use Seb? {image} {image} {image} Nick
Hi there

I use fxpro, and yes sometimes it's frustrating, that on one chart our price hits let's say, daily demand, on other it doesn't.
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  • #1,991
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:06am Sep 5, 2013 3:06am
Good morning Alfonso,

I compared the levels on your EURJPY chart with mine, and that results in a question. In te picture below I have placed a red dotted line on the high of the spike in may and scrolled back. In December 2009 you can see how I drew the level. I'm thinking you took the lower level on the right of this picture, while I took the higher one on the left and took the one on the right for a reaction to the higher one.
Do you apply rules for these kind of situations?
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  • #1,992
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:09am Sep 5, 2013 3:09am
Hello Panoramia, i glad to find this topic there ;-)
You are good person and this thread is great!

I just done my first trade +150 pips on Aud/usd but i have some question and what do you think about re-enter in blue area (it's fresh i think but not original)

http://charts.mql5.com/2/442/audusd-...-markets-2.png


Thanks and see you soon ;-) Ny open!
  • #1,993
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:18am Sep 5, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Reacto
Good morning Alfonso, I compared the levels on your EURJPY chart with mine, and that results in a question. In te picture below I have placed a red dotted line on the high of the spike in may and scrolled back. In December 2009 you can see how I drew the level. I'm thinking you took the lower level on the right of this picture, while I took the higher one on the left and took the one on the right for a reaction to the higher one. Do you apply rules for these kind of situations? {image}
Morning there!

I haven't used this area because that's not a level for me. The basing is just aweful. I don't want bases like that, too much trading in the area, which is a very important odds enhancer.

I've used the lowed one becaue it has a nice basing and very strong departure. It's the one that has been holding. Also, because that D1 supply is right at the Monthly distal supply area (2 pixels thick red line). I made it a bit wider taking the basing on the first reaction. I am not going to set & forget in that level, it's not fresh and fully penetrated but it's an important resistance and the Monthly supply is right there!

Hope that clarifies your doubts as per why I painted my levels like I did.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,994
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:22am Sep 5, 2013 3:22am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Ryo, I am not waiting to go long on EURJPY, because we are too high in the curve, that's not allowed with our rules! Take a look at my D1 chart and SD areas as well as the new % at the upper right corner. We're right now too high in the curve, buying in not allowed. This information allows us to mechanically negate a long trade, that simple! Can long trades work? Of course they can, but it would not be trading with the basic principles of supply and demand. But again, it all depends on where your higher timeframes zones are painted. There...
How do you get the % of the curve on your chart like that Alfonso?
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #1,995
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:26am Sep 5, 2013 3:26am
Thanks Alfonso, an other important lesson learned.
  • #1,996
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:27am Sep 5, 2013 3:27am
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} How do you get the % of the curve on your chart like that Alfonso?
Hey Nick!

I think you haven't been reading the thread lately Where have you been? In Ibiza? There was a new rectangle indicator released a few days ago! You can download it from the first post or from the indicator's thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428268

All the new things are explained in detail in the thread. Today or tomorrow there will be a new version that will:

  1. Detect if you are above/below current price and draw the rectangle in the appropiate color, no need to edit properties any more
  2. Monthly curve trendlines will be added, the same way it's working now for H4/D1/W1 timeframes

Go and get that new version, if will automatically show the % at the upper right corner of your charts IF you have the D1 and above SD levels painted manually with the rectangle indicator, else if will show 0% always

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,997
  • Edited 3:47am Sep 5, 2013 3:30am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey Nick! I think you haven't been reading the thread lately Where have you been? In Ibiza? There was a new rectangle indicator released a few days ago! You can download it from the first post or from the indicator's thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428268 All the new things are explained in detail in the thread. Today or tomorrow there will be a new version that will: Detect if you are above/below current price and draw the rectangle in the appropiate color, no need to edit properties any more Monthly...
Oh haha I must have missed it. Il check it out. See you at your webinar!

Nick

UPDATE: The new indicator is amazing. Thanks Alfonso. You said there is a new version coming out within the next couple of days? I will wait for that one because it takes a long time to place the indi on 20 pairs for D1/H1 + WK/H4 + MN/D1 and i dont want to have to do it twice : )
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #1,998
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:41am Sep 5, 2013 3:41am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Morning there! I haven't used this area because that's not a level for me. The basing is just aweful. I don't want bases like that, too much trading in the area, which is a very important odds enhancer. I've used the lowed one becaue it has a nice basing and very strong departure. It's the one that has been holding. Also, because that D1 supply is right at the Monthly distal supply area (2 pixels thick red line). I made it a bit wider taking the basing on the first reaction. I am not going to set & forget in that level, it's not fresh and...
Alfonso, in your answer you mention the monthly proximal, your is much lower than mine, so can you please explain how and why you drew the monthly level, mine is like this. Yours is at the red line.
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  • #1,999
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:49am Sep 5, 2013 3:49am
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Alfonso, in your answer you mention the monthly proximal, your is much lower than mine, so can you please explain how and why you drew the monthly level, mine is like this. Yours is at the red line. {image}
Take a look at my attachment. That's the basing candle I used, then all other candles on the right closed lower than that basing area on the Monthly.

There was a first pullback into the Monthly supply area that confirms there are still willing sellers in the area since it touched and left swiftly. That's way my MN supply is green (non-fresh)

REMEMBER: each broker has slightly different prices and GMT offset at their servers, so the look of your candles may differ a bit from mine. Just draw the levels you see on your charts, you can't do anything else. Forex is an unregulated markets and brokers do what they see fit.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,000
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:51am Sep 5, 2013 3:51am
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} Oh haha I must have missed it. Il check it out. See you at your webinar! Nick UPDATE: The new indicator is amazing. Thanks Alfonso. You said there is a new version coming out within the next couple of days? I will wait for that one because it takes a long time to place the indi on 20 pairs for D1/H1 + WK/H4 + MN/D1 and i dont want to have to do it twice : )
You don't need to add the indicator over and over on your pairs. Why? You just overwrite the one you have and the effects will take place automatically on all pairs. UNLESS you are using a different color configuration with your color templates, then I would understand!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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